Far Horizon's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/4773591/comments http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1028751?source=feed#comment-18887021 18887021 Thu, 16 May 2013 06:29:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1428981/comments?source=feed#comment-18756261 18756261 http://seekingalpha.co...
- are taking a much more aggressive market position, and this could reduce the accounting inefficiency of insurance liabilities running off better than reserved.
It is easy to look at float as an asset, but all it is is the underwriters best estimate of the cost of future claims.]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 08:33:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.co...
- are taking a much more aggressive market position, and this could reduce the accounting inefficiency of insurance liabilities running off better than reserved.
It is easy to look at float as an asset, but all it is is the underwriters best estimate of the cost of future claims.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1378821/comments?source=feed#comment-18258511 18258511 Tue, 30 Apr 2013 05:15:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1378821/comments?source=feed#comment-18177131 18177131 Buying after major events should be a good strategy, but I would choose the stronger and more diversified companies. Look at Partner Re after the NZ and Japan EQ to see the impact of being overweight to the market in a major loss. Check out http://seekingalpha.co..., if you want to read more on the sector, and http://seekingalpha.co... where I look at what Ajit Jain at Berkshire is up to. Brian, the sector heavyweights are the big European players, have you thought of including those in your reviews?]]> Sat, 27 Apr 2013 17:41:34 -0400 Buying after major events should be a good strategy, but I would choose the stronger and more diversified companies. Look at Partner Re after the NZ and Japan EQ to see the impact of being overweight to the market in a major loss. Check out http://seekingalpha.co..., if you want to read more on the sector, and http://seekingalpha.co... where I look at what Ajit Jain at Berkshire is up to. Brian, the sector heavyweights are the big European players, have you thought of including those in your reviews?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328071/comments?source=feed#comment-17517301 17517301 Thu, 11 Apr 2013 19:04:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328071/comments?source=feed#comment-17473611 17473611 My key point is the volatility of Indonesian investments, much of which has been currency related. The IDR/USD fx rate is telling. http://bit.ly/10N4CJT. This shows how th Rupiah shot from 2000/USD to 16000 in the 90's, then stabilised in a (wide) range between 8000-12000 since then. A comparison from 1990 bears the devaluation in full.
While as I mention in my article currency risk remains high, a repeat of this devaluation could be considered a 'tail' event.]]> Wed, 10 Apr 2013 20:07:06 -0400 My key point is the volatility of Indonesian investments, much of which has been currency related. The IDR/USD fx rate is telling. http://bit.ly/10N4CJT. This shows how th Rupiah shot from 2000/USD to 16000 in the 90's, then stabilised in a (wide) range between 8000-12000 since then. A comparison from 1990 bears the devaluation in full.
While as I mention in my article currency risk remains high, a repeat of this devaluation could be considered a 'tail' event.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328071/comments?source=feed#comment-17472941 17472941 Wed, 10 Apr 2013 19:42:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328101/comments?source=feed#comment-17431511 17431511 The issue for both Singapore and Hongkong as I see it is one of competitive advantage over neighbours as an entrepot economy. As China and S East Asian countries develop more open economies, reduce protectionism, and increase the supply of educated employees - one degree better becomes increasingly hard to maintain. This leads to tougher cost benefit equations for employers, employees, residents and other 'investors'.
Singapore specifically I see as having progressed fast up the cost curve, while managing to maintain an edge over neighbouring countries. Every time I visit KL, Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila, Ho Chi Minh, I see the edge in evidence, but also how much these places have progressed, and how tenuous is Singapore's grip on the leaderboard. I certainly don't write it off, but the city state has its work cut out to keep ahead - as an entrepot is is essentially dependent on its neighbours - IMHO I think that there will always be a role for Singapore to play, but the real upside for future growth lies elsewhere.
LKY used to picture Singapore as the "Switzerland of Asia" maybe look to Switzerland to anticipate how things might look in Singapore in the future.]]> Tue, 09 Apr 2013 22:42:59 -0400 The issue for both Singapore and Hongkong as I see it is one of competitive advantage over neighbours as an entrepot economy. As China and S East Asian countries develop more open economies, reduce protectionism, and increase the supply of educated employees - one degree better becomes increasingly hard to maintain. This leads to tougher cost benefit equations for employers, employees, residents and other 'investors'.
Singapore specifically I see as having progressed fast up the cost curve, while managing to maintain an edge over neighbouring countries. Every time I visit KL, Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila, Ho Chi Minh, I see the edge in evidence, but also how much these places have progressed, and how tenuous is Singapore's grip on the leaderboard. I certainly don't write it off, but the city state has its work cut out to keep ahead - as an entrepot is is essentially dependent on its neighbours - IMHO I think that there will always be a role for Singapore to play, but the real upside for future growth lies elsewhere.
LKY used to picture Singapore as the "Switzerland of Asia" maybe look to Switzerland to anticipate how things might look in Singapore in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1288871/comments?source=feed#comment-16715981 16715981 BH seem to be shortening their underwriting risk duration, which means writing more catastrophe business (such as the deals in Asia) and writing broader portfolios (less focused on rigid risk selection, such as the Aon and Marsh deals.) These latter deals are more like selecting a sector and buying an Etf than trying to pick the best individual stocks in the sector.
My assertion is that this shift in strategy is driven by the need to generate liquidity to replace the lost bond returns.
I accept that BH are not solely invested in T bills (see the split mentioned in my article) but use the 10 year Treasuries to highlight the yield reduction - expecting similar basis point drops from a higher base in other bond classes. The net impact on investment yields should be consistent.
I do agree that the BH team has had a consistent 30 year track record, but over this time the yield environment has not moved so sharply against them.
This seems to be one explanation for the observable shift in underwriting strategy. I do not think that they are doing anything ill considered, but do think that there is a short term shift up risk, and that the impact of this will be likely to lower their market combined ratio outperformance.]]> Sat, 23 Mar 2013 23:30:44 -0400 BH seem to be shortening their underwriting risk duration, which means writing more catastrophe business (such as the deals in Asia) and writing broader portfolios (less focused on rigid risk selection, such as the Aon and Marsh deals.) These latter deals are more like selecting a sector and buying an Etf than trying to pick the best individual stocks in the sector.
My assertion is that this shift in strategy is driven by the need to generate liquidity to replace the lost bond returns.
I accept that BH are not solely invested in T bills (see the split mentioned in my article) but use the 10 year Treasuries to highlight the yield reduction - expecting similar basis point drops from a higher base in other bond classes. The net impact on investment yields should be consistent.
I do agree that the BH team has had a consistent 30 year track record, but over this time the yield environment has not moved so sharply against them.
This seems to be one explanation for the observable shift in underwriting strategy. I do not think that they are doing anything ill considered, but do think that there is a short term shift up risk, and that the impact of this will be likely to lower their market combined ratio outperformance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1243801/comments?source=feed#comment-16086221 16086221 http://seekingalpha.co.... I plan to publish some analysis on the BRK.B insurance businesses in the next few days.]]> Sat, 09 Mar 2013 23:49:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.co.... I plan to publish some analysis on the BRK.B insurance businesses in the next few days.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219151/comments?source=feed#comment-15751051 15751051 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 23:39:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219151/comments?source=feed#comment-15751031 15751031 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 23:39:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219151/comments?source=feed#comment-15750991 15750991 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 23:37:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219151/comments?source=feed#comment-15750961 15750961 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 23:33:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219151/comments?source=feed#comment-15750931 15750931 Sat, 02 Mar 2013 23:31:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1219151/comments?source=feed#comment-15750411 15750411 http://seekingalpha.co..., sets out a comparative approach to market selection and weighting.]]> Sat, 02 Mar 2013 22:58:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.co..., sets out a comparative approach to market selection and weighting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1171261/comments?source=feed#comment-14950981 14950981 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 16:29:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1137101/comments?source=feed#comment-14663231 14663231 Moves in other currencies and USD will also be worth watching in the next couple of years as COH currency risk increases with the diversified footprint. ]]> Wed, 06 Feb 2013 16:16:44 -0500 Moves in other currencies and USD will also be worth watching in the next couple of years as COH currency risk increases with the diversified footprint. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1137101/comments?source=feed#comment-14322721 14322721 Tue, 29 Jan 2013 17:00:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1103311/comments?source=feed#comment-13568721 13568721 Thu, 10 Jan 2013 21:17:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1094641/comments?source=feed#comment-13346491 13346491 Sat, 05 Jan 2013 18:03:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1090811/comments?source=feed#comment-13314111 13314111 Fri, 04 Jan 2013 14:44:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1094411/comments?source=feed#comment-13313921 13313921 Fri, 04 Jan 2013 14:39:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1090811/comments?source=feed#comment-13229811 13229811 Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:10:14 -0500