• Gloria Kessler
    $BAM Awesome volume and drop.....
    2/26/13
    Reply (47)
    • The_Hammer: An estimated 130,000 metric tons of additional graphite electrode capacity expansions have also been announced,
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: of which approximately 100,000 metric tons are located in China, and are projected to be operational in 2013/2014 Ark got some explaining
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: CEO almost adressing all the bull points I made in conference call. Chinese market devated, low quality long payment targets, needs to ...
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: ... consolidate; players try to export. In general: vols recover, inventory at customers is low. market will take time to recover, guidance
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: on EPS significantly below consensus; price is 24% below book, I am buying assets
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: so u are saying china capacity additions do not matter to global supply? consolidation? usually does not occur until more pain
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: what about the big drop in ebitda guided 2013? 175-205 mil? what about cap ex spend? 90-120 Mil vs dep at 90-95 mil?
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: why the jump in cash from op guidance 150-180 in 2013? inventory reduction?
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: I guess the Chinese do have their pain, GTI is cost leader, the looked at 10 Chinese comps, had due diligence with 5 and could not find one
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: with attractive cost structure or at a reasonable price. They are waiting ...
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: "the looked" what? due diligence with what info? we know china builds capacity not based on economics but for jobs. this cannot be good
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: well, there is a reason if you look at future scrap steel supply growth in China (2nd leg of boom): http://bit.ly/15BQKFd
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: why is growing scrap steel supply in china great for gti?
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: 1) sales to China, 2) EAF steel to become cheaper than BOF if China exports scrap rather than importing 3) GTI owns 2nd largest needle coke
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: ... producer and needle coke rather than Graphite electrode capacity to become the bottle neck, GTI the only backward integrated producer
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: 4) Seadrift improved needle coke quality, GTI no longer dependent on buying super premium needle coke from 3rd parties after expiry of
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: take or pay contract by end 2013
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: well u assume china keeps building ghost cities
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: 5) take or pay contract bundled supply of super premium needle coke to purchase of normal premium needle coke that Seadrift could produce
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: On ghost cities: I don't care what they build or consume, but on what they demolish or what they replace in order to supply scrap to be used
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: how much benefit on take or pay contract end?
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: 70k mt purchase of needle coke in 2012, 57k mt tons in , then they have no longer any obligation. Suggests % capacity use at Seadrift
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: sorry "in" is in 2013
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: 100% capacity use at Seadrift vs c80% in 2012.
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: CEO in call: 10-20m neg EBITDA impact from inventory of costly needle coke bought in 2012 and another 10-20m from fixed cost absorbtion due
      2/26/13
    • Arkeh Capital: to underutilised capacity at Seadrift, so that is c20-40m EBITDA w/o benefit from improved needle coke quality
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: mgt seems to use big spreads. what's 10 mil difference? 10-20 mil? guidance ranges are huge. cap ex 90-120 mil. 33% difference.
      2/26/13
    • The_Hammer: 20-40 Mil in ebitda is huge when interest expense is 35-40 mil. mgt covers their @$$ all the time with their wide ranged guidance
      2/26/13
    • Gloria Kessler: Wide spread guidance given so management meet expectation for next conference call in April. They have to be right so to speak.
      2/27/13
    • Arkeh Capital: Did you realise the one-off component in guidance? H1 is burdened by needle coke inventory bought at higher needle coke prices in 2012 and
      2/27/13
    • Arkeh Capital: GE electrodes in inventory (production time 2 month) are also produced at higher needle coke. Needs to be sold at lower than normal margin.
      2/27/13
    • Arkeh Capital: Volume picks up at the same time as several markets recover, they expect restocking
      2/27/13
    • The_Hammer: what's with the huge differentials in guidance? give me a break. 20-40 mil in ebitda? the stock is below 2001 prices.
      2/27/13
    • Arkeh Capital: That is what percent of sales in a cyclical business where clients could order more or less and pricing is difficult. Book value is 10.
      2/27/13
    • Arkeh Capital: By the way, i prefer analysts to evaluate rather than trying to predict where the shareprice could be going to
      2/27/13
    • The_Hammer: Goldman, which is lowering shares to Sell and slashing 2013/2014 EPS estimates:
      2/27/13
    • The_Hammer: "We expect oversupply in the electrode market to worsen in the foreseeable future as new capacity continues to be built, both in China
      2/27/13
    • The_Hammer: and ex-China."
      2/27/13
    • Gloria Kessler: I know you prefer analyst to evaluate instead of predicting price but investing is about making a profit with your capital.
      2/27/13
    • Gloria Kessler: That is the same approach GTI should have done. To make increasing profit for shareholders
      2/27/13
    • Gloria Kessler: Why compensate GTI management if they lose money for shareholders?
      2/27/13
    • The_Hammer: gloria u can rest assured the baord rewarded mgt via pay increase, bonus, stock options and restircted stock. mgt's always seem loose with
      2/27/13
    • The_Hammer: shareholderd money. see $100 mil + in pricey buybacks but little to no insiders putt'en up any money to buy their leadership skills.
      2/27/13
    • Gloria Kessler: Your right again
      2/27/13
    • Arkeh Capital: Could they have bought before results release? How low can moral attitude drop?
      2/27/13
    • The_Hammer: http://yhoo.it/12bzffO feasting at the trough, lots of big option awards too. is this long enough period 2 years?
      2/27/13
    • The_Hammer: stock options are freebies, lottery tickets. no real money being put up to buy shares. why not? 100k 200k stock awards for what?
      2/27/13