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  • Something Is Seriously Wrong With Salesforce  [View article]
    Why not looking at it this way: instead of borrowing from banks, CRM is issuing stocks. So, the public can lend money to CRM and get a little bit of CRM instead. It works if the public believes that CRM has an excellent business model that would accelerate exponentially in future. The validity of this belief is another issue....

    Having said that, I don't think going long or short un-hedged is wise. They are going to split the stock, so we have even more risk.

    Anyways, Paulo, would you please let us know when you go short? Do you have any specific top value in mind?
    Mar 3, 2013. 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on AIG Q4 earnings: Book value/share (excluding AOCI) of $57.87, +15.5% Y/Y. P&C division loss of $945M thanks to $2B Sandy hit - the company posted an operating profit of $290M even with that. Premiums written of $7.8B, flat Y/Y. Life and Retirement income of $1.1B vs. $912M a year ago. Conference call at 8 ET tomorrow. Shares +3.7% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    Philip, The number of shares had changed a lot.
    Feb 21, 2013. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trulia (TRLA -2.6%) and ValueClick (VCLK +2%) head in opposite directions after Goldman starts the former at Neutral, and the latter at Buy. Goldman sees Trulia benefiting from the housing recovery, strong online real estate ad uptake, and growing mobile activity, but is worried about competition and a steep valuation (20x 2014E EV/EBITDA). ValueClick, meanwhile, is seen as the "purest play" in the online ad tech space (ad tech ops make up 60% of sales).  [View news story]
    Another win for the analysts of GS. NOT!
    Feb 13, 2013. 02:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks erased early losses to finish flat in choppy trading, but gains were limited by declines in energy and techs and maybe a sense that the market run-up needs time to consolidate. Investors may be starting to book profits after the market's 6% jump in one month. So far, 301 S&P 500 firms have reported this quarter, with 69% topping EPS estimates and 66% beating on revenues.  [View news story]
    to be sure, is it a sarcasm?
    Feb 7, 2013. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Amazon's (AMZN) Q4: The company swung back from its Q3 loss as North America sales rose 23% Y/Y to $12.175B and International sales gained 21% to reach $9.093B. Growth in the company's Electronics segment outpaced Media segment sales. Free cash flow decreased 81% to $395M for the trailing twelve month period compared to a year ago with real estate outlays factoring in. For Q1, the company sees $15.0B-$16.6B in revenue and expects profit to fall in a range of -$285M to $65M. A conference call is scheduled for 5:00 EST. AMZN changes direction, now  +3.2% AH. (PR[View news story]
    FWIW, The short interest is just 2%.
    Jan 29, 2013. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Don't Pull The Trigger Until Earnings Are Released  [View article]
    Doolan, there is a difference between AAPL and F. It seems that options for F are much cheaper for Ford than apple before their earning report. You can thank the speculative herd that Apple has!

    Protect your position with puts and sleep tight at night of the report.

    I am considering going long with puts too.
    Jan 27, 2013. 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce (CRM) files a 14A asking investors to approve a 4:1 stock split at the company's March 20 shareholder meeting. Shares +0.6% AH after closing near their all-time high. "The Board ... believes the considerable price appreciation has made our common stock less affordable and, therefore, attractive to fewer investors," Salesforce declares, apparently with a straight face.  [View news story]
    Guys, be careful! Don't go short of these class of stocks without a protection, i.e., an out of money call. 12% of float is short, so if any 'positive' news comes up, you may have another netflix on your hand!
    Jan 26, 2013. 03:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Off another 1.8% today Apple has dropped below Exxon as the world's most valuable company. Apple is also in the red on a Y/Y basis for the first time in, well, a long time.  [View news story]
    Margin calls from brokers?
    Jan 25, 2013. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX) roars to a 12% gain as the dreamy week for investors roars on. That makes for a 79% YTD return for a company that made just $8M in profits during its last quarter while Apple raked in a cool $13B to fall 12%. Money manager Ivanhoff capital sums up the action: "Expectations matter."  [View news story] gives the short interest only biweekly. I don't think you can get the info freely from anywhere else faster than

    If I am wrong, please somebody correct me here!
    Jan 25, 2013. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia: Why An Intel-Based Sell-Off Makes No Sense  [View article]
    AMD is reporting on Tuesday. From there, I think we can tell how big the discrete graphic market was and how much market share NVDA has gained or lost. Ashraf, can you then write an analysis based on AMD report about your guess about NVDA?
    Jan 19, 2013. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting Intel Could Be A High-Probability Trade  [View article]
    on hindsight, everything is obvious :)
    Jan 17, 2013. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's (INTC) Q4 earnings are due out later, with analysts expecting that EPS fell to $0.45 from $0.64 while revenue dropped to $13.52B from $13.89B. Intel is struggling to overcome a falling market for its PC chips and the European economic slump, although it is benefiting from a shift to new data-center technologies. The chipmaker is also about to lose departing CEO Paul Otellini, but analysts don't expect an announcement about his successor today.  [View news story]
    It will be reported after hours. It hasn't been reported yet. No one knows the data. It is just good old gambling. Let's see how they bet pans out in just a couple of hours!
    Jan 17, 2013. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Dead Cat Bounce?  [View article]
    Earning call is 22-Jan-13. Market doesn't know that how 'exactly' fast they are burning cash or if the management is taking any new positive new directions, and what is really happening to the inventory.

    Looking forward to the conference call!
    Jan 15, 2013. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18  [View article]
    You are stating contradictory things! If institutions are hedged to neutral with respect to the options that they sell, so why should they 'care' about what happens to AAPL?
    Jan 14, 2013. 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand, sources tell the WSJ; display orders are said to be cut by ~50%. The Nikkei also claims display orders have been halved, albeit from an elevated level of 65M. The articles back up analyst reports of iPhone production and component order cuts, and raise the question of whether Apple needs a cheaper iPhone and/or one with a larger display to bolster its international share. Suppliers on watch: LPL, CRUS, OVTI, QCOM, BRCM, SWKS, TQNT, AVGO[View news story]
    I don't like QQQ at all. The weights are absurd! SPY seems to be a better index IMHO.
    Jan 13, 2013. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment