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Dan Frederiksen

Dan Frederiksen
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  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +3.8%) move higher after CEO/founder Elon Musk tweets that he will be making an announcement on Thursday about putting his money where his mouth is. One idea being floating around is that Musk will fire up a secondary offering of which he takes a big chunk and uses the proceeds to pay back the automaker's outstanding DOE loan. [View news story]
    he said put his money where his mouth is. that doesn't sound like a declaration of profitability. that sounds like they are out of money again as I predicted and Elon is footing the bill as I also predicted he might because he's not good with defeat.
    As a long term tesla investor you haven't done your homework. take a look at the last 8 quarterly reports. tsla is a monster bubble. it could work out but so could putting the mortgage on red
    Mar 26 05:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Set For Record-Breaking Q4 [View article]
    good call. don't let the 837million doller debt and the quarterly 100m losses and perfect track record of losing money including the roadster program in any way persuade you from buying stock at a price that assumes TSLA is a great success already.

    why would you.
    Jan 18 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Set For Record-Breaking Q4 [View article]
    No that's not a great question. That's obviously irrelevant. Why would they keep completed cars when there is a long reservation list and they are building all cars to prepaid order..
    That's a terrible question.
    The VIN sequence is the intelligent observation. But you don't want to hear it..
    Jan 18 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Set For Record-Breaking Q4 [View article]
    No Dave, Im not kidding. You speak about something you know nothing about. Assumption is the mother of all fukkups.
    I suspect there is no requirement to complete cars in VIN sequence. And I saw clear indication that there were huge gaps in the VIN numbers. The numbers rose way way too fast at a time when only 200 cars had been delivered.
    It's known that Tesla has problems delivering certain models so it makes sense that they would skip those with already assigned VINs so they end up completing them out of sequence. They might also have skipped those orders which hadn't been finalized and that could be 2/3 or more. The 40 and 60kWh version haven't been ready either so they would have to skip those as well.
    My guess is around 1000 were done in 2012. maybe fewer.
    Notice that we haven't heard 1000 or 2000 cars announced by Tesla.
    I'm the intelligent one, you are the trusting fanboys.
    Jan 18 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Set For Record-Breaking Q4 [View article]
    so because I can see that TSLA is dead I'm a coupon clipper??
    what does that even mean..

    electric vehicles are going to take over everything. green is good. but TSLA's bottom line is deadly. that's just the way it is.
    what the stock market does is zero indication. that's the hype. the fools thinking the bubble is solid.

    unless you think there have never been bubbles in the market..

    mark my words.
    and don't short either. the bubble is so insane that it can force a short squeeze even though it's certain tsla will go bankrupt sooner or later. as long as there are fools with money the bubble can grow much larger.
    I'm guessing that Q4 will be so devastatingly sobering that the fools will start to wonder if TSLA will last but the last many quarters they didn't take the hint. not even the record loss of 111million 3½ months into production. that's not even a warning sign. that's a death sentence yet the stock price rose...

    this is like the perfect storm of hype combined with a real product that people like. dot com was only hype, this is a real product but the accounting is still deadly. I just hope no fools kill their life's savings here.

    as I said, mark my words. I have called this demise years ago and it has only become much clearer in recent months.
    I expect a Q4 loss of 60-100 million. and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a record loss. I expect to TSLA to be out of cash before summer and no profit and insurmountable debt in the 800 milion doller region.

    trust the math

    if a short squeeze happens or if the shorters exit, then I would recommend a short at the peak. just for the sake of the entertainment I'd love to see a short squeeze but I don't think it will happen. I don't see an event that's rosy enough that both sides will be confident tsla will make it.
    it would have to be something extreme like one of the major automakers investing a billion or something. they are stupid but I'm not sure they are that stupid. unless of course the billion totally dilutes the existing stock. and something like that might actually happen. a pseudo bankruptcy take over. if that's legal

    remember my name :)
    Jan 17 08:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Set For Record-Breaking Q4 [View article]
    FOHC, my comment was quite factual. you still haven't addressed the quarterly reports' bottom line. nor their trend.
    if you did you would see your analysis is quite wrong. your reluctance to deal with those numbers should also tell you a lot.
    Jan 17 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Set For Record-Breaking Q4 [View article]
    Well known yes. lunatic no. my mother had me tested.

    do we know that the VINs have been produced in sequence...
    I have this annoying quality that I am rarely wrong. small minded people can't really follow me.
    Jan 17 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Set For Record-Breaking Q4 [View article]
    Spectacularly wrong analysis. Incredibly incompetent.

    If you plotted the quarters' net results in that graph you will see the losses growing steadily from 50 to a record 111m$ last quarter. if you look further you will see that by end of Q3 they had 837 million dollars in liabilities and have never once been even the slightest profitable with which to hope to meet loan obligations.
    if you know some of their history you will know they have lost money on everything they have done, that they have a solid track record of complete failure to manage costs. they have been at death's door several times and only live because foolish investors keep putting hundreds of millions into it. if not for the 200million they got a few months ago they would be in bankruptcy right now. similar bailout has happened before. they spent 2-300k$ on each 110k$ roadster they sold. they have burned a billion dollars so far.
    they have built a money burning monster that even 3½ months into delivery of model S generated a record high net loss of 111m$. a machine that shows no indication of slowing down.
    TSLA was not cash flow positive. Elon lied.
    Indications are that they have only been able to produce around 1000 cars in 6½ months of production and that might be a good thing because if they actually ramped it up we'd see that the margin on the cars is not 25% but negative.
    TSLA is neck deep in debt and produce record losses. The stock is not worth 35, it is worth 0. TSLA is dead, you oxygen deprived greedster wannabes just don't know it yet because you are so caught up in the hype and you do zero critical thinking. to completely overlook the bottom line in an analysis is quite impressive.

    TSLA hasn't even created their 60 and 40kWh versions yet. not one of those have been delivered and it was only supposed to be the first 1000 reservations that were forced 85kWh.

    Q4 will be bloody and definitive. but like all the previous bloody quarterlies, particularly Q3, you will just gloss over the truth and the stock price will remain high. it's a monster bubble. a perfect storm of stupidity.
    it's also worth noting that all the execs and board members are selling most of their stocks and have been the last year. except Elon Musk who has a billion dollars worth of stock :)
    Elon has many strengths, admitting defeat isn't one of them. cost management isn't either.
    remember he blamed Tesla founder Martin Eberhard for cost runaway and Martin sued him for defamation and won because in fact it was Elon who ignored the costs and just bought.

    You cannot base an analysis on childish hype. TSLA is dead. Even a billion dollar gift couldn't make them sustainable. They just don't understand the need for expenses to be below revenue.
    A huge money burning machinery has been set in motion and no one is at the wheel.

    Fisker is dead, Tesla is dead, Coda is dead, Better Place is dead.
    Also sprach Dan Frederiksen
    Jan 15 09:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Tesla Motors: Think Of It Not As A Car Company, But As A Luxury Indulgence [View article]
    EVs are the future but TSLA aint it.
    Don't let the fact that TSLA is a few months away from bankruptcy in any way dissuade you from buying stock...

    The stock is worth nothing yet it's priced at 33+. It's a monster bubble.

    When investing, at least look at their quarterly reports.
    in the last two years the losses have been steadily accelerating from 60million to a record 111 million in Q3. And Q3 was after production and delivery start of model S.
    TSLA has 840 million dollars in liabilities and losing 100 million each quarter. what could possibly go wrong...

    EVs are the future but TSLA aint it.

    Fisker will be bankrupt too. likely this year.
    Better Place too
    same with Coda.

    all dead.
    Jan 8 08:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence [View article]
    regular readers of you must be morons though since if they were not they would leave because of quite idiotic articles such as this. rather than waste a lot of intelligence on you I would ask you to commit your professional reputation on lead acid being the best way to go for electrification of cars and that at any point that becomes so obviously false as even you will see it you commit to a very public suicide stating the reason why.

    you're a wannabe intellectual that have been fooled into unquestioning selfconfidence because other morons such as cnn has featured you in interviews. And your stupidity is compounded by a desire for attention leading to ever more erroneous positions

    your faith in market forces is a similar expression of fantastic stupidity as it is market forces that have brought about this global warming catastrophe in progress and it is anything but market forces that is trying to counter it. may you burn in hell lest you get your act together

    On Aug 26 11:31 AM John Petersen wrote:

    > stockferret, personal attacks on me do not change the basic facts
    > of battery capacity and gasoline savings. Do your own homework, double
    > check my numbers and make your own investment decisions. I can assure
    > you that regular readers of my articles will.
    Aug 27 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment