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NYer1

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  • JGH - A Discounted Opportunistic Choice In The CEF Arena [View instapost]
    I like it a lot here on a relative valuation basis.
    At close to 14% discount this is a bargain.
    NAV has recovered really nicely over the past couple of months.
    I have bought back the tendered shares (tendered at around 19.10) and am very happy with the yield, currently around 9.35%.
    Mar 20, 2015. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    One can be right on fundamentals and lose lots of money on the long side as well :)
    I am REALLY excited about this piece of news regarding the Drone experiment license.
    The ONLY assured result of this is that AMZn will lose even more money , expended on Drones, pilots, other manpower, support infrastructure etc.
    This might not have meaningful effect on 1st QTR results (which I still expect to be very weak) but will surely add losses to the 2nd QTR. and forward.
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Macau casino stocks stumble again [View news story]
    long way to go lower still before the downward turn starts to reverse.
    MPEl should be looking at lower stock prices (mid teens probably) within a few months.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    Far from it
    Just a simple humble visitor on this sphere not unlike yourself or anyone reading this.
    Mar 12, 2015. 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    RM
    "You are very wrong if you perceive that I write for my own special purposes. I don't need the few pennies that SA pays, and I don't influence any financial market."

    The thought never entered my mind.

    "I write for you and my other readers. My real 'Hope' is not for Amazon. They do not need my well wishes. It is for you."

    Truly appreciated - I try to learn from anyone and everyone, every day!
    I'd like to hope you read others' comments with open mindedness, I do.
    If I read an argument that convinces me I am very quick in re-assesing a position , even changing it if there is merit to it.
    I do not see those merits in your arguments yet, but who knows, I might get convinced in the future OR (shudder me timbers) perhaps one day we wake up and you see the merits in mine.
    Thanks for sharing your thoughts
    Mar 12, 2015. 03:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    RM
    Alchemey :))
    Perhaps you'd succeed where Newton failed.
    Algo trading is cheap these days, you can start small with a cash outlay of a few thousand dollars and if/after it pays for itself expand to the Big Kahuna options and attempt to strike it rich.
    Let us know if you make it (I'm totally rooting for you on this one)
    Mar 11, 2015. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    RM
    As someone who has been engaged with complex option trades for over 35 years I beg to differ.
    Complex trades just position you with more complex gambles.
    A simple trade can allow you to become a strategist as well (perhaps a simpler strategist)
    They are not mutually exclusive in my mind.
    Mar 11, 2015. 07:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    RM
    The world is a very big place.....time zones...
    "I study a situation and arrive at a conclusion. You seem to develop a conclusion and attempt to defend it at all cost."
    That is exactly how I feel about your method of reasoning vs. mine.
    Yours is a the fuzzy logic, smeared with a hefty HOPE doze while mine is anchored in hard numbers , dollars and cents.
    Enron did very well for many years , Worldcom did very well for many years, even old Bernie MAdoff did amazingly well for many years - until something hit the fan.
    AMZN will end up not much differently given its trajectory. The question is WHEN not IF, I believe the timeframe is still 12-18 months but 1st quarter disastrous results may shorten that time frame.
    It doesn't have to go BK in order for the stock to trade in double digits, but this company will get re-organized and JB would find himself kicked out.
    Bold predictions!
    Now for our viewers continued entertainment and education:
    AMZN vs. QQQ

    1 year return : -1.53% vs. +16.10%
    15 months : -5.32% vs. +22.21%
    18 months : +23.82% vs. +36.63%
    21 months : +32.32% vs. +43.21%
    24 months : +33.61% vs. +52.84%
    27 months +44.65% vs. +61.88%
    30 months +41.38% vs. +51.39%
    at 33 months back they finally break even.

    AMZN can't make a buck for the life of it (JR, relax and hold your horses, yes they did make a midgen here and there, not going to happen on a meaningful scale for the foreseeable future).
    Last quarter they pulled all stops, used every trick in the circus book and managed to scrap a horrendous report for a 4th quarter in retail, lowered expectations gave AMZN a breather for a couple of months.
    Let's see what the next quarter (or 3) bring about.
    I say (and I listen carefully to the guidance) more of the same, lower sales growth, lower operating margins, lower FCF, weaker balance sheet, tighter liquidity..all in a day's work of a distressed equity situation of the future.
    Live and learn and see you there in 12-18.
    Mar 11, 2015. 07:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]

    RM
    Timing is a lot :) no arguments there.
    You could find very pointed comments of mine about AMZn when it was close to 400 over a year ago as well.
    However, allow me to offer a better perspective vs. your comparison to the DJIA.
    AMZN is much better correlated to the NAsdaq 100 index of which it is a major component.
    Perhaps you would benefit from contrasting the stock performance against the QQQ?
    Even with AMZn's strength after the recent report the stock has lagged the QQQ over the last 30,27,24,21,18,15,12,9 months..a bit less convenient perspective, no?
    Picking a very bottom while supplying inapplicable reference points ..tsk tsk..Compare AMZN to the biotech index since 5/23/13 - hey, if we are using inapplicable indices we might as well go all out, no?
    Mar 11, 2015. 03:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    Jeremey
    Glad you made money and good luck
    Mar 11, 2015. 02:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    RM
    You prefer to cherry pick comments from dates instead of engaging the real issue here, fine.
    How about AMZN performance since the start of 2014 until now vs. the SPY or Nasdaq 100?
    The real issue debated here is your ludicrous assertion that AMZN has its best days ahead of it potentially becoming the " last retailer" - in the face of continuously deteriorating fundamentals over the past few years.
    Your article was published when AMZN was around what, 380?
    When AMZN is back to 250 and fundamentals keep going south , I suppose you will still hold this opinion? at 150? still? 75? still?
    Gary? he doesn't even make for poor entertainment anymore..
    Mar 11, 2015. 02:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    RM
    I claim the very same thing about your thesis.
    Ridiculous!
    The "Last Retailer" fantasy is placing you at a much more open position to ridicule.
    AMZn is on a crash trajectory with meeting a creditors committee..next quarter would put another nail in its slowly (but surely) closing coffin.
    You choose to ignore hard facts and hitch your wagon to HOPE , believing their investments in technology will bear huge crops.
    ALAS, anyone looking at what has been happening over the past few years can see very clearly that the efficiency of your miracle technological investments has been declining alarmingly.
    Do you have a line in the sand that if broken you will be ready to concede your theory flunked? Or you are willing to keep holding your opinion ad infinitum regardless of deteriorating fundamentals and stock price?
    Mar 10, 2015. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    Jeremy.
    HOPE HOPE HOPE..
    Hope you luck out on those calls BTW, very high chances they expire worthless.
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    So RM
    If I got what you are saying correctly, your strategy hinges on HOPE.
    You HOPE that JB and AMZN who have done well in the past, will somehow find a way to succeed in the future inspite of the very clearly deteriorating operational and balance sheet metrics.
    You dismiss the company's guidance for lower sales growth and lower EPS.
    " If anyone relies upon what a business tells them to evaluate they are not bright."
    I beg to differ, If anyone ignores what a business tells them (whether outright or through a very careful examination of that business filings) - they themselves are not bright.
    HOPE will not serve you well as a strategy, in my opinion.
    But there are always two sides to every trade, which makes a market.
    AMZN will not last the next 5 years as the retailer it is now, it will either be re-organazied and survive on a much smaller scale, or be broken up by its creditors.
    The last retailer? ha :)
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Retailer, Amazon! [View article]
    RM
    Do you dispute the fact AMZN directs shareholders not to rely on GM and instead look at Operating MArgins as a better representative figure for the efficiency/profitability of sales?
    If you don't dispute it, can you tell us what does the Operating MArgin story looks like over the past few years?
    Does it show a healthy progression?
    What is your opinion on the Working Capital situation vs. LT Debt as it has developed over the past few years?
    Do you think it embodies a healthy financial situation?
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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