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NYer1

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  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    flipper
    Well said.
    I agree with what you proffered and a barbell strategy can be effective in smoothing out heavy noise at times..I try to use the middle of the barbell to generate 4-6% a year mostly in a hedged way because cash these days loses you money in real terms.After 37 years I can say tuition fees can be quite steep for over concentrated positions, but sometimes the expensive lessons, when they come early on , can be the most effective ones.Been there done that as they say.
    Sep 4, 2015. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Fearless Forecast Of 2016 Tesla Sales [View instapost]
    My bet is most will be cancelled at such a price tag.
    Or changed to a lower cost version of the car.
    X SIg wil not be a meaningful cash generator for TSLA IMO.
    Normal X config would hardly be considered a success either sales wise and any stronger pick up will be at the expense of model S.
    Sep 4, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Fearless Forecast Of 2016 Tesla Sales [View instapost]
    when you say "all" any idea how many? 300? 500? 100? maybe?
    Is the reservation a non refundable deposit?
    Sep 4, 2015. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Fearless Forecast Of 2016 Tesla Sales [View instapost]
    mavi
    nothing has been sold and I seriously doubt more than a few low thousands will be sold of the Sig. series.
    Sep 4, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Fearless Forecast Of 2016 Tesla Sales [View instapost]
    I think this is all academic, the reality will be the Sig. model at around 135k will hardly sell at all.
    I agree that base models will have even lower margins and at 75-80k, they will be far from providing a sensible eonomical alternative to current ICE offerings out there.
    This will be a huge DUD IMO.
    hence my 2016 prediction of 58500 +- 5% still stands.
    Sep 4, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Unsecured Bonds Update [View article]
    Michael
    " So actually this represents 42% of my PA. This is a stupidly outsized bet. I agree with NYER1 that it has kind of gotten a little silly. A 15% to 20% sized position in one type of bet should really be the maximum. I am way off the reservation on this one."

    do the right thing (and remember, I actually like BTU here) !

    We can always be wrong, need to make sure we are in a position to fight another day (year/decade/Generation) comfortably
    Sep 4, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: The First (Dividend) Cut Hurts The Most [View article]
    Gogu
    I have shied away from NCV due to the fact it has been under earning its distributions and the UNII has been shrinking, so in that respect the lowere dist. will help to stem NAV bleeding.
    On the other hand, the large allocation to converts(and some equities if my memory serves me right) will hurt this fund, possible badly if i am correct in my assumption that we are but in the initial move lower during a prolonged equity markets weakness trend.
    I see much better values out there.
    Downside target? look at 2008..might be less pronounced but even half that is not appetizing.
    Sep 4, 2015. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: The First (Dividend) Cut Hurts The Most [View article]
    ELS
    "However the only way to recoup the dollar lost (with PHK) is over time with the dividend payouts."

    In order to capture the dividends you need to stay in the fund!
    Mind you, the fund closed yesterday at a still overly rich 15% premium to NAV.
    Plenty of other better alternatives that actually EARN their distributions, have a nice cushion of UNII and are less risky (by a wide margin) to choose from that trade closer to NAV or even at substantial discounts to NAV (10-15% at times).
    That leads me to believe that if you stay in PHK to capture the income hoping to recoup losses you are basically trying to pick pennies just under a moving steam roller - watch out for your fingesr because that is exactly what many holders have been doing over the past 2 years, so yes, they did capture some nice income but look what they have lost in principal, much more!
    PHK still has some 30% downside from here, the distribution will most probably need to be cut again as the fund can't earn even the current reduced dist. rate.
    When the dust settles, PHK will trade at a 10-15% discount yielding some 10-12%, so my current target for it is around $6-6.25.
    All IMHO.
    Sep 4, 2015. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund - Next Stop, NAV [View article]
    Get Real
    "NEVER EVER NEVER earn market beating returns as well! If I discounted a pile of dog crap in my yard 15%, would it be a buy?"

    It would be a screaming buy if your next door neighbour would be selling his pile of dog crap at a price premium of 50% and I needed some dog crap to fertilize my own yard on the same street !!

    "Lets be honest, paying 25-50% premiums is crazy, no arguments there. " AGREED

    "All of a sudden that changes and the "Captain Hindsights" of the world say "I told ya so!" " - some of those Captain Hindsight were calling this disaster a looong time ago , and the author called it on April 9th this year !
    Sep 4, 2015. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund - Next Stop, NAV [View article]
    GetReal
    Happy you bailed out in time - the vast majority did not, alas!
    Smarter sheep still know they are sheep, the "smartest" sheep (you counted yourself among them ) often feel so confident they forget they are still sheep and when the wolf comes, well they forget to run.
    A careful examination of PHK would show you a very mediocre fund until the financial crisis hit and the fed came out with ZIRP. Then a few years of out of this world performance and sky rocketing premia (Gross put this fund on steroids like he is competing for Mr. Olimpia, in order to try and recover the devastating losses suffered during the crisis, it worked, for a while).
    But over the past FEW years PHK's price performance was again much less than stellar with frequent selloffs due to premium concerns (NAV still performed pretty well).
    " Discount/Premiums mean nothing" - I beg to differ! and differ big!
    PHK's premium is the number one thing that caused this dramatic melt down from almost $15 some 4 years ago..or over $14 less than 3 years ago or over 13.5 some 2 years ago.
    Yes, earning power definitely plays a role, UNII cushion is always good to have, ROC should be considered and portfolio composition gives us very good clues about a fund's potential performance (or lack of). BUT all these things combined may mean close to nothing if PHK would have been trading at a DISCOUNT to NAV - so yes, a reduction in distribution would have hurt, sure, but that happens all the time in CEF world and the reaction would have been quite benign (say, a decline of some 10% plus/minus).
    What has made PHK such a disaster waiting to happen was the PREMIUM and the premium ONLY - all other factors were there , written on the wall:
    The super high risk
    The declining earned income
    The reduction in UNII
    The inflated distribution vs. the portfolio's earning power
    However, your IHE index on this fund was SKY HIGH!
    That, and only that caused this fund's market price to implode over the past 2-3 years - the PREMIUM!!!
    And yes, I think Junk has a very RELATIVE good value amongst fixed income sectors , is it historically cheap? far from it!
    But HY CEFs became VERY cheap historically over the past 2 months and I too have been accumulating them.
    I see better values than Pimco funds because there are other funds from different families that have fundamentals that are not less good but trade more cheaply.
    Getting married to one fund family can be construed as IHE as well ;)
    best of luck!
    Sep 4, 2015. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Peak Is In [View article]
    Robert
    I fully agreed with your cautious stance.
    However, i believe your U turn has come way too early.
    We are in a clearly defined downward channel and both fundamentally and technically I view this market as susceptible for a very rude awakening from current levels.
    The sentiment may look bearish but this might be so because of the very sanguine and complacent behavior of most market participants over the past few years.
    I still believe every strong rally should be sold into rather than every dip be bought.
    Until I see a clear break from the currently lower trending channel I intend to keep doing just that.
    Sep 4, 2015. 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Bear ETF Will Hedge Your Portfolio [View article]
    Morningstar are wrong
    Here is a link to the HDGE web site showing the largets positions: http://bit.ly/1gYaGq7
    Sep 4, 2015. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: The First (Dividend) Cut Hurts The Most [View article]
    scooter
    If you were not observant enough to save yourself from the last %+ dollars of capital losses perhaps you could still save the next $2.5 that are coming in losses as this fund will go below its NAV.
    Sep 4, 2015. 12:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: The First (Dividend) Cut Hurts The Most [View article]
    Thanks for a well articulated article Reuben!
    Another reason to bail out of PHK is the fact that this fund has been more risk to te tune of some 40% higher risk vs. its peer average.
    Riskier investments merit discounts not premium.
    As it stands the current lowered distribution rate is still well above the fund's earning power and the fund has no UNII reserves to cushion it from further NAV bleeding.
    It stands to reason that premium would indeed be replaced by discount to NAV on this fund.
    I believe that when the dust settles, PHK will yield 10-12% (due to further lowered distributions) while trading BELOW NAV..my target based on current NAV is about 6 to $6.25 and I believe we could see that materialize within the next 6 to 12 months.
    Sep 3, 2015. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Bear ETF Will Hedge Your Portfolio [View article]
    apoplectic
    Thanks for the idea!
    They seem to know what they are doing..apart from giving up flexibility in intra day trading (comes handy in flash crashes, for example) this fund sports a nice track record.
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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