Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Amazon Doesn't Make Much Profit (And That's OK)  [View article]
    So if you say business is good why would 2016 be a bad year for AMZn ?
    How much in net profits did AMZn as a whole generate (we don't know AWS because they don't specify) and compare that to the net additions to liabilities?
    if you earned $30 (and this net earning was an anomaly not likely to be repeated) but went $250 into debt in order to facilitate it, would you say your business is healthy?
    Feb 7, 2016. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PHK's Dividend Is In Danger, But Don't Expect A Cut Yet  [View article]
    What does PHK's market cap have to do with weathering the storm?
    Any reason why PHK should merit a 25% premium to NAv while virtually all other funds trade at discounts (and the vast majority large discounts of over 10%)?
    Feb 7, 2016. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Stock Misunderstood: It's Undervalued  [View article]
    Those capital raises were done in different market environment and during a more enthusiastic phase among the stock's chief promoters.
    recent comments by a few of those promoters shed a more somber light on TSLA and I would not be surprised to see another capital raising followed by a negative stock reaction this time.
    More and more people and Wall Street entities have become less sanguine about TSLA's execution issues and cash burn.
    There comes a time when dilution by issuing more shares is seen just as that..dilution and that is not so good for the stock price.
    It may buy the company more time but if the execution and sales do not hold up to the fantasies peddled by the company and analysts it will just add more supply to the market and push the stock much lower.
    Feb 7, 2016. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Entering Its Puke Phase  [View article]
    My pleasure William.
    Thanks for taking the time and sharing your thoughts.
    The only sectors I buy on sharp dips have been energy and commodity miners, the rest I sell/short on nice rallies.
    I expect the markets to see saw for the next few years with a very pronounced skew to declines.
    My base case is for short/intermediate duration corp. bonds and even treasuries, to outperform equity indices by a very nice margin over the next 3-5 years.
    Feb 6, 2016. 06:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Doesn't Make Much Profit (And That's OK)  [View article]
    I know it feels good saying that, stick to it and see your paper profits evaporate.
    Don't confuse investment savvy with luck.
    Don't confuse paper profits with hard cash in your pocket.
    You could have set on AMZn for 20 years and made much less than what others have done on it during the last 35 days.
    Only a not very good investor would ignore that possibility.
    Feb 6, 2016. 05:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Entering Its Puke Phase  [View article]
    Yes it's correct! (my data was for 2/4/15 to 2/4/16)
    SPY was down by 4.17% for the year ended 2/4/16 while RSP down 8.24%.
    QQQ was down just 0.19% whereas QQQE down 6.67%
    All are total return figures.The difference will be less pronounced if we include Friday's declines but it will still convey the same message.
    The declines in FANG stocks and other mega caps have just recently started to join the rest of the market which has been weaker much earlier.
    When the top 5 capitalization stocks in the SP 500 make up over 11% of the entire index cap you don't see much of the weakness in the bottom 400 stocks which comprise the index.
    Feb 6, 2016. 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Doesn't Make Much Profit (And That's OK)  [View article]
    Right..and AMZN is also still in its infancy, that's why they can't turn a meaningful profit for the life of them for the past 6-6 years, right?
    They are just a 20 year old company..
    Let's wait another 20 years for those pipe dreams to be realized..profits..what a PasseƉ idea..who needs profits when you have zero interest rates and QE ad infinitum..
    Feb 6, 2016. 04:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Doesn't Make Much Profit (And That's OK)  [View article]
    So if many players with much deeper pockets than AMZN see nice margins to be had and all go into the business, what happens to competition? It goes up and becomes more and more intense.
    And then when competition becomes more intense, what happens to pricing power? it goes down.
    And when pricing power goes down what happens to profits?
    Feb 6, 2016. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Entering Its Puke Phase  [View article]
    Trade in Mexico
    You write: " ...articles like this just cause some investors to get wrapped up in emotions, and sell out of fear which ALWAYS turns out to be a mistake in the very long term."

    Tell that to the people who saw articles such as these in the spring of 2000 and acted upon them..or the summer/fall of 2007.
    They saved so much money from market collapses.

    And then you write: "If you want to buy stocks cheap, you have to buy when negativity runs very high as it does now."
    You realize what we have experienced so far is a pretty much run of the mill small correction and far from a "blood in the streets" event.
    Can you share your views on how you can buy stocks cheap now?
    Is your definition of cheap based on the fact we are 10% below all time highs?
    Do you believe the current market valuation is cheap?
    Feb 6, 2016. 03:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Doesn't Make Much Profit (And That's OK)  [View article]
    In the same filing do you also see the other side of the balance sheet? say , other liabilities, for example ?
    But you mentioned AWS ,to be specific, in your arguments..but you can't really tell what their true net profit is can you (if it exists even).
    AMZN does a good job of masking the real numbers of their true net profits to make them very vague
    As for the author, reminds me of articles exalting the virtues of dot com companies before the bubble burst..AMZn enjoyed a nice bubbly period over the past 8 years..let's see what the next few years look like.
    Feb 6, 2016. 03:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Entering Its Puke Phase  [View article]
    So your thesis for buying stocks now hinges on ZIRP, right?
    What about valuations? are stocks cheap by historical terms (or maybe they just seem cheap because they were slightly higher a few months ago..?)
    Feb 6, 2016. 10:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Entering Its Puke Phase  [View article]
    trade in Mexico
    Define long term?
    If your time horizon was 10 years (or even 15) and you went in in 2000 you had a miserable total return vs. cash, let alone bonds.
    I suspect that if your time horizon is 5-10 years from the highs of 2015, you will experience the same thing.
    Feb 6, 2016. 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk Bond CEFs In 2016: Even Worse Than 2015?  [View article]
    Without going into the specifics about DHF or EHI (I like HY CEF in general here due to cheap historical valuations on some and HY being oversold in my opinion as well) - your comment about a perpetual annuity is False.
    HY funds will shrink in value over time until they self liquidate due to the effect of defaults and sometimes of over payment of distributions.
    If you plan on perpetual annuitized distributions go back and shorten your horizon and/or be ready for lower income.
    Look at DHF, it has lost 80% of its value over the past 17 years and close to that percentage in its monthly income distribution.
    Feb 6, 2016. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Getting Cheap, Or Are Big Investors Losing Confidence?  [View article]
    I can charge one of my cars for 450-500 miles in 5 minutes tops and pay for it less than a third of a model S.
    The difference in price and the money I earn on it pays for the gas many times over.
    So where is the rationale behind owning a TSLA again?
    0 to 60 acceleration?
    Feb 6, 2016. 09:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Entering Its Puke Phase  [View article]
    Trade in Mexico
    What you comment on is like driving and looking at the rear view mirror.
    What are your perceptions regarding the author's opinion in this article?
    To give some context about past performance, Bill Miller out performed the SP500 for 15 straight up to 2006.
    Look what happened afterwards.
    One can err many times and still have valid arguments.
    What is YOUR opinion?
    Feb 6, 2016. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment