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  • Amazon: Don't Fight AWS Momentum [View article]
    Interesting notion JR..
    However, how many times has AMZN cut prices on AWS offerings over the past 3 years?
    Still didn't manage to show a decent profit (if at all)..
    Cutting pricing on AWS is very negative net net to AMZN , and if the best benefit is saving some expenses for AMZN's other divisions, then AWS is not a real business to begin with, just an internal APP with some minor outside benefits.
    The reality probably is the income from other AMZN division is not meaningful enough to make the price cuts beneficial to the bottom line.
    May 20, 2015. 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands: Reasonable Risk-Reward [View article]
    Low 40's, unnless Macau downward spiral continues for more than 6 more months and the market gets its long overdue correction, if that is the case, mid 30's seem reasonable.
    May 15, 2015. 06:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank cuts 2015 Macau gaming revenue forecast [View news story]
    With or without SC, MPEL is bound to soon test the Mid Teens..if the trend in Macau does not change soon then Low Teens are next.
    May 12, 2015. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund's Top Institutional Owners Are Buying More Shares Even On A 49% Premium [View article]
    People were holding their many BILLIONS of dollars with Madoff for much longer than 2 years before something hit the fan.
    Madoff was selling a portfolio management strategy to very wealthy (and even very sophisticated, at times) investors that no one could figure out (essentially a black box) and align with anything that corresponds to a logical and factual risk/reward relationship vis a vis market performance and volatility.
    In that respect, I have not read of ANY analyst or market maven who can actually come up with an explanation as to how PHK can generate the required net returns that has enabled it to pay its over inflated distribution rate.
    The time bomb is still ticking.
    May 11, 2015. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund's Top Institutional Owners Are Buying More Shares Even On A 49% Premium [View article]
    PHK has long abandoned the HY sector in favour of a "black box" hedge fund format.
    In that sense, investors must take PHK's performance with a huge grain of salt as there is no way to ascertain how it has been achieved.
    Some would say, who cares, as long as they deliver the returns..
    The same kind of people found themselves as creditors of Madoff's funds and holding worthless pieces of papers of Enron, Worldcom etc.
    May 11, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon The Canary In The Market's Coal Mine? [View article]
    forward 12 months EPS is at 0.93 now..
    BTW, 2017 (yes, those analysts do still have the audacity to post eastimates for 2 FY going forward after they have been wrong for the past 3-4 years in an absurd manner) stands at a consensus estimate of 5.92 EPS.
    I believe we should have been there already some 3-4 years ago based on their estimations of 5-6 years ago.
    May 11, 2015. 10:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon The Canary In The Market's Coal Mine? [View article]
    Typo re 2016 mean estimates: it is 2.56/sh not 1.56/sh.
    The forward 2016 PE is still just 170 times projected (and quite surely to be cut, dramatically so) earnings.
    May 11, 2015. 08:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income: What Happened In 2009? [View article]
    Chris
    Agree with you re the 19% conundrum.
    No one can, frankly, Pimco can't even articulate how they can strive for 19% earnings just to keep NAV flat going forward.
    But the sad thing is, the vast majority of small investors holding this fund don't even care, they remind me of the momentum players chasing high flying stocks because..they keep rising in price - while ignoring the lofty valuations..PHK's momentum play is currently the distribution rate..
    The longer it pays the same high rate that was appropriate some 10-15 years ago, but out of touch with current reality , the lower the NAv will trend, the less assets the fund will manage per share and the risker the fund's investments would have to be in order to maintain that distribution.
    At some point, the fund managers will cry UNCLE and reduce that distribution to a more realistic 9% of NAV per year - when that happens (it is not an IF in my mind, just a WHEN) the fund will go to a nice discount and will yield some 10-11% based on its share price - that is when PHK might be a good buy.
    May 11, 2015. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon The Canary In The Market's Coal Mine? [View article]
    2016 consensus is around 1.56/sh so forward PE is now "only" some 170 times earnings.
    May 11, 2015. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Quarter Was A Slam Dunk [View article]
    Which makes the bonds so much safer!
    And a few structured notes based on RIG share price as well as a bonus
    May 10, 2015. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income: What Happened In 2009? [View article]
    Chris
    "2) All Gross-managed funds would have a similar premium
    3) The cash would chase the manager over to Janus. He is the manager on JUCDX, and it is just not the case."

    Re 2 - I don't believe Gross managed any other CEF
    Re 3 - JUCDX is an OPEN end fund which ALWAYS trades at NAV, no matter what
    1) The premium would have disappeared with him
    Re 1 - by the time Gross left (some say, was let go) he was more a liability than an asset to Pimco, still, the fund did decline somewhat due to his departure before recovering as his replacements proved to be very competent (and much more disciplined) .

    PHK might still pay its hyper inflated distribution rate but the longer that continues the higher the odds that will lead to a very harsh implosion, the odds are pretty high right now and will get exponentially higher once the easy money policy starts being retracted.
    May 8, 2015. 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    We’d strongly advise investors to take down 4Q and full year deliveries
    to allow for greater execution risk for Model X. Tesla management talked
    about how the 4Q run-rate of production could be as much as 2x that of
    current production (i.e. over 20k units). We believe Tesla’s 55k units FY volume
    target actually depends on this. To allow for a number of unique engineering
    challenges with the Model X (and cannibalization of the Model S), our numbers
    are around 5k units below the company’s target – almost entirely out of 3Q
    and 4Q. We think this level of conservatism is reasonable, but has a direct
    impact on the company’s cash flow. Easily two-thirds of the call was devoted to
    Tesla energy, Powerwall and the stationary storage opportunity. This is great,
    but it potentially masks some very important up-front liquidity needs of the
    company that investors will want to pay very close attention to.

    Written by who?
    Adam jonas
    May 7, 2015. 09:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Melco Crown Entertainment misses by $0.08, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Lookout, mid teens ahead..
    May 7, 2015. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Lower Q2 Expectations, Fall In Customer Deposits [View article]
    "I think we all know that when push comes to shove, they will deliver the last 3000 cars this quarter by Fedex if necessary in order to make the numbers."

    Indeed so, and if Fed Ex would be too overbooked to handle it, Musk is already working on TTT (Tesla Teleporting Technology).

    But seriously, this is a BAD quarter, and very ominous for the rest of the year.

    It is also quite surprising TSLA is not coming with a new financing round now.

    You raise money when you can , not when you need it..in TSLA's case, they are rolling the dice too long now, their current cash position will not be sufficient to fund operations and losses for more than 2-3 quarters and the equity markets are already tick-tocking.

    This stock is expensive even 50% lower from here, the question is when will the implosion come, not if.
    May 7, 2015. 07:18 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Quarter Was A Slam Dunk [View article]
    Indeed , this is a very good quarter for RIG (relatively speaking , given the circumstances).
    The stock should benefit going forward and outperform.
    Moreover, the bonds of RIG will now be perceived as less risky - the recent downgrades have proven to be premature but enabled some investors to accumulate bonds with 3-5 years maturity at 9-10% yields, a bargain not seen often.
    May 7, 2015. 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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