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  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    "adjusted EPS estimates" ?
    Now the interesting exercise here will be to find out how "adjusted" are those EPS estimates :)
    We can posit that AMZN can post "adjusted EPS estimates" of $15 a share for 2014 too given the opportunity to "adjust" the estimates in certain ways.
    The devil is in the details and the details will show that Oppy's model is rife with unrealistic (some would even go as far as fantastical) assumptions.
    Oct 21 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    Indeed, not many other reasons to also visit this board ( a few choice participants excluded of course)
    Oct 21 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    if you're comfy with NY1, I'm fine with it :)
    I knew you'd find interest in that..
    As we are about 180* in opposite views i too feel GS prediction of 305 upside for AMZn would be proven to be at least 180* wrong (so at least 30% downside instead of upside ( for the geomertically sticklish commentators..))
    Oct 21 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Sell-Off Will Not Be A Result Of 'Deteriorating' Fundamentals [View article]
    Ebook, well said.
    Oct 21 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Sell-Off Will Not Be A Result Of 'Deteriorating' Fundamentals [View article]
    I disagree with your main premise.
    While it is true AMZN has some kind of positive correlation with the market and the tech sector, almost any other mega cap stock enjoys this relationship too, so this point is quite moot.
    However, please check what has been AMZN's correlation with the market and the tech sector year to date.
    I submit to your consideration that a major shift has occurred based ONLY on fundamentals starting 3 quarters ago.
    AMZN's fundamentals have been deteriorating significantly and after many years of Mr. MArket ignoring its inflated valuation, lo and behold, we have seen a strong disconnect between market price action and AMZN's year to date.
    I strongly believe that AMZN will continue to under perform the SPX and the tech sector going forward over the next 3-4 quarters (perhaps more) due to weak fundamentals first and foremost.
    While a general market weakness might add to volatility and downward pressure, the pre-eminent reason would be weak (and getting weaker) fundamentals.
    The past 10 months have shown us some kids have started to cry out this king (of inflated valuations) is not wearing any clothes. The next few quarters will enable the rest of the crowd (especially the still enthusiastic analyst community) to notice this fact as well.
    Oct 21 07:32 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    Now go back to 2013 and do the same exercise, I am sure you'd find it interesting too :)
    Oct 21 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    As an exercise what was GS opinion of AMZn's fundamentals and Price Target a year ago or at the end of 2014?
    Oct 20 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernstein: Amazon spending $2.5B+ on content next year [View news story]
    On TWC they keep the ads just for the first week (maybe two).
    I have seen many past episodes with no commercials (or at the very least you could fast-forward through them) on-demand.
    I sometimes watch whole seasons of a series on-demand a few weeks lagging just to avoid that dreadful thing.
    Oct 17 12:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Beyond The P/E Ratio [View article]
    The payoff would be an EPS multiple commensurate with other B&M retailers, so a stock price of 30-40 seems not unreasonable by any measure (Assuming AMZn would be able to eke out some kind of a profit annually, a stretch of the imagination currently but still a slim possibility).
    Oct 17 12:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This's New Manhattan Store? [View article]
    Gary J
    Continues to eat WMT's lunch as in AMZN DOWN 23.5% year to date while WMT down 2.5% year to date even with a few warnings..?
    If this equates to eating their lunch you know where AMZN will be when they don't have anything more to eat (3-4 quarters..)?
    Below $100, more like 60-70.
    Oct 15 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Facebook, Amazon, others slide following Netflix/eBay's results [View news story]
    Next stop AMZN after next Thursday's close.
    Only AMZN has the potential for a move lower that is twice more pronounced due to a much weaker financial picture and operating model.
    Prepare your parachutes (aka as put options for the long holders) and triple check their strings.
    If AMZN closes below 280 ahead of the report we might see it break 200 next Friday.
    Oct 15 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    BINGO and thanks for the article, helped me buy some puts with better conviction !!!.
    Oct 15 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Amazon Before The Institutions Do [View article]
    If you did not have AMZn would you buy it here? Or put it differently.
    Assume you had just 80% of your current position, would you buy the extra 20% here?
    As a long term investor, have you ever faced a situation where your lon held stock which appreciated very nicely for years , reversed course and declined significantly?
    Do you have a strategy to preserve your unrealized capital gains?
    Specifically, assume AMZn tanks to 260 next week on a horrible quarterly report (not inconceivable by any measure BTW) - do you keep holding? buy more? sell?
    Assuming you's hold - what if you see it at 220, even 200 by the next quarter report, still hold it? buy more? sell?
    Another quarter goes by and AMZN trades at 170 or even 150? would you still hold? when do you give up, assuming JB continues with the same strategy..sales grow by 15-20% but EPS are not in sight, FCF turns to zero or negative, AMZN keeps borrowing - so fundamentals stay the same yet the stock , for some obscure reason refuses to catch a bid.
    Food for thought..
    Oct 14 10:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Amazon Before The Institutions Do [View article]
    Amzn is the Goliath of online sales..the Titans of overall sales are breathing down its neck but are still far behind, that is why they are and will grow much faster and that is why AMZN is destined for prolonged losses..competition is tough.
    Oct 14 09:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Brick-And-Mortar Strategy A Mistake [View article]
    You are right, America has been a great melting pot and NYC is the epitome.
    True regarding non-doorman buildings but even such buildings have a super who normally receives packages for the tenants/neigbours.
    If you live in a neighbourhood far from 5th and 34th there is no reason for you to schlep there if you have a convenient location to pick up your order from closer by.
    NYers are notorious for their value for spare time.
    BTW the Macy's area is so much more accessible and better for retail.
    But this is all semantics..this endeavour is destined for another dud designation just like the Fire Phone.
    Oct 14 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment