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NYer1

NYer1
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  • This Is What's Happening In Junk Bonds, And It's Not Pretty [View article]
    Thanks for a very nice write up.
    However, Junk debt outside of the energy sector is not that expensive actually in historical terms.
    I believe there is quite some value in HY bonds but perhaps outside of indexed ETF's which include the riskiest of assets out there too.
    B and higher rated junk offers a compelling value vs. investment grade debt these days.
    JMHO
    Apr 26, 2015. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cadiz: Strong Sell On Project Failure, Insider Enrichment, And Bankruptcy, Price Target $0 [View article]
    Cdzi published a press release today which addresses some of the issues raised in the article.
    Based on it, the short case does not look as one sided as the author describes.
    http://bit.ly/1ySQjIv
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Amazon Do To Groceries What It Did To Books? [View article]
    So cereal, you are basically advocating fraud here, right?
    Apr 21, 2015. 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: Change In Leverage To Effect Dividend Cut And Collapse Of NAV Premium [View article]
    Leverage can be achieved by using futures, options and swaps that do not involve the issue of debt and/or preferred shares and PHK has been using those leveraged instruments in its portfolio for quite a few years now.
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dr. Strangelove Taught Us To Stop Worrying And Love Amazon [View article]
    Kevin
    What potential was glimpsed at in the 4th quarter results?
    I see a VERY weak 4th quarter, sure, the stock went up on beating very low managed expectations but where is the potential you allude to?
    Apr 20, 2015. 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: Sell This Overpriced CEF Before It's Too Late [View article]
    Cheap leverage is everywhere these days.
    Other funds have cheap leverage as well, maybe not as cheap as PHK's but the difference is not meaningful enough to merit a 60% premium (not even a 15% premium actually)
    Other Pimco funds use the same leverage source ARPS and are still trading at DISCOUNTS to NAV, so this is not the reason for the Premium.
    No question PHK is a carry trade but so are ALL the fixed income CEF's with leverage.
    The question is, do you believe PHK can earn 19% on NAV even with leverage consistently and what are the risks involved with such a gargantuan task?If they carry less leverage on the books now, it means they have less income producing assets to support the inflated distribution.Even with leverage PHK would barely make 10% in income on NAV, so the other 9% must come from somewhere else - that is where derivatives come into place: Swaps, Futures, Currencies, etc.. - a very dangerous game and one who "kills" heroes in the long termsA disaster waiting to happen..by the time they cut the distribution it would be too late to bail out, this fund will trade at a nice DISCOUNT to NAV and then maybe, it would be a buy.
    Apr 19, 2015. 02:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Street Applauds Disastrous Financial Results [View article]
    Thanks for a great article, looking forward to read part I.
    Would you say NFLX faces a huge risk going forward with infrastructure players jacking up streaming charges as it becomes apparent that NFLX's growth contributes to cable/fios etc. infrastructure players losing paying customers?
    It seems to me NFLX can be caught in a vicious cycle of rising content costs AND rising streaming cost as cable companies seek to monetize their infrastructure and milk it for what it is really worth for streamers who steal their viewers and users.
    Apr 16, 2015. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: Sell This Overpriced CEF Before It's Too Late [View article]
    Check out JGH, ACP, HYB to start..a combo should do much better than PHK over the next few years
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tesla Valuation Using DCF Under 3 Scenarios - Part 2: Detailed Assumptions [View article]
    Nigel
    Good comment
    AMZN was actually cash flow negative when taking into account capital leases but that serves as a very good example for a company burning cash at a high rate and needing liquidity infusions (AMZN's debt has been growing at an alarming rate)
    TSLA is and will be dependent upon raising debt an/or equity to finance its operations for the foreseeable future, which will cause serious dilution issues and/or additional strain on the balance sheet with added interest expenses coming as well.
    Apr 13, 2015. 11:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: Change In Leverage To Effect Dividend Cut And Collapse Of NAV Premium [View article]
    mr Lucky
    You have a wise advisor !
    PHK is a blackbox and naive owners believe that if it has been doing well for the past 6-7 years it shall go on doing well..
    Few of those buyers/holders understand the risks involved in this kind of vehicle and the added significant risks of owning a fund that trades at nosebleeding premium to NAV.
    For them, the fact the fund has traded at such premium for a number of years means there is no risks involved.
    There will be a very rude awakening..
    Apr 13, 2015. 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is More Than An Internet Retailer [View article]
    Great!
    HAppy you took some profits!
    Apr 12, 2015. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: Change In Leverage To Effect Dividend Cut And Collapse Of NAV Premium [View article]
    Sooner than you imagine :)
    Best of luck
    Apr 12, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: Change In Leverage To Effect Dividend Cut And Collapse Of NAV Premium [View article]
    Why don't we do this: chart present, 3,5,7,9,11,13 years..see a trend?
    Apart from the drastic decline and recovery from the financial crisis..see a trend?
    Apr 11, 2015. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: Change In Leverage To Effect Dividend Cut And Collapse Of NAV Premium [View article]
    You are an engineer, right?
    Think a bit and you'd get the 200% leverage issue, not that hard.
    Re ROC, I am not stuck in a cube about 4%, 30% or 100%..
    I really don't care what CEF connect says because that number is not meaningful to me in the least.
    What matters to me is the fact this fund can't earn its distribution rate consistently over the next cycle and less leverage means it has less assets to earn income on to pay that distribution.
    Let us assume PHK has been a great investment over the past 6 years..great..now what does it say about the next 5 years? in a word- NOTHING.
    The fund must earn 19% to break even and in order to even just TRY to do that must take undue risks which will cause it to implode at some point.
    You may think: well, I will ride it, disregard the huge premium, hope for the best and try to bail before it all collapses
    Good luck
    Apr 11, 2015. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund: Change In Leverage To Effect Dividend Cut And Collapse Of NAV Premium [View article]
    Great, I am sure you are not sure about the right thing.
    Apr 11, 2015. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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