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Josh ODonnell

Josh ODonnell
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  • Initial Jobless Claims: 388K vs . 375K consensus (prior week revised to 389K from 386K). Continuing claims +3K to 3.31M.  [View news story]
    Whether or not the economy is recovering or not..just look at the Not in Force labor participation rate...Even during the massive stock/housing bubble we were in, the particpation rate for 25yrs/graduates, kept declining...It has been declining for 10 years. Its one of the reasons there was a bubble...The fed was making the U.S. look stronger economically, but in reality we have lost millions of long term jobs way before Obama and Bush.

    Call it whatever you want, but if you "think" the economy is recovering..Great! If you don't Great!..but the statistics show a very long down trend in the labor particaption rate(25yrs/college grads)... So there are less people working now, then in 1990(when adjusted for population growth)
    Apr 26 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Optimism about the job market jumps in March, with 19% saying now is a "good time" to find a quality job, up from 13% previously, according to Gallup. It's the highest read since September 2008, though still not a great number as 78% continue to say it's a "bad time."  [View news story]
    an improvement is 300,000 jobs every month and the labor participation rate to trend higher...itd still take 2 years or more for things to get better at that level
    Mar 16 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEO Brian Moynihan ended 2011 with neither a cash bonus nor a pay raise from Bank of America (BAC), Bloomberg reports, but he did get a $5.9M performance-restricted share bonus to go along with his $950K salary.  [View news story]
    Forget the salary..I'll take the bonus alone. Its always the bonuses that are more then the salaries..Millions usually...Starbucks CEO made 1.8 million salary last year and like 62million in bonuses..
    Feb 19 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -15K to 358K vs. +3K consensus. Continuing claims +64K to 3.52M.  [View news story]
    None of this matters..All that matters is that the labor participation rate is continuing its downtrend...As long as that stays, we won't have considerable long term growth in the economy...

    and yes...CEO's are waiting after Obama is re-elected to lay hundreds of thousands off...
    Feb 9 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing prices have bottomed, says Bill McBride, one of the keener observers of the market. Key to his reasoning is the normalization of the price/rent ratio and a large decline in listed inventory. Don't look for increases yet, however, as he expects prices could move sideways from here for several years.  [View news story]
    Highly doubt that... Especially when just last month case shiller reported a 1.3% decline in home prices(after 4 years of recession...thats still bad)...Home prices aren't going up anytime soon...
    Feb 6 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report Is A Sucker-Punch To Pessimists [View article]
    Jobs may be created...BUT you HAVE to look at the labor participation rate...and the Not in labor force rate...Which are much more important at this point because both of the numbers are trending lower and have been for years... 1.2 million people have left the labor force in the past month, which is more then the 250K in jobs being created... (Also, you don't know the quality of these jobs..how many are p/t, f/t, pay a decent living wage...) I highly doubt most of them are non-seasonal..

    So until the trend on the labor participation rate turns back up, It wont matter how many jobs they created....if nobody is working!
    Feb 4 08:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -12K to 367K vs. -7K consensus. Continuing claims -130K to 3.44M.  [View news story]
    This is not a good number when you combine it with the labor participation rate...and food stamps(which now total 47million)...Its all bad news folks...any way you look at it, ITS BAD..REAL BAD. Just because the actual claims # was down..doesn't mean crap...because the # will be revised up next week...just like the GDP #'s... and everything else.
    Feb 2 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nov. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: -1.3% M/M vs. -1.2% in Oct. -3.7% Y/Y vs. -3.2% expected, -3.4% prior.  [View news story]
    Yeah... Ugh. 4 years later and home prices are still going down.. Thats bad folks. Any way you look at it its real bad... Whats even more sad is the fact that home prices are so low, people still aren't buying.
    POP GOES THE BUBBLE!
    Jan 31 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Those jobs aren't coming back," said Steve Jobs to the President, who asked what it would take to bring Apple's production to the U.S. It's not just low wages, Chinese manufacturing infrastructure has grown to remarkable size and sophistication. Apple's contribution to U.S. employment will be through its stores, its empowerment of entrepreneurs, and jobs at cellular providers and shippers, but not the actual building of its products.  [View news story]
    steve jobs paid himself a whole lot more than 1 dollar per year... Please...and if that was his salary, then maybe he's one out of a million CEO's that aren't money whores.
    Jan 24 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jan. Richmond Fed Mfg. Survey: +9, to 12 (above 0 = growth). Shipments +14 to 17, new orders +7 to 14, jobs +8 to 4.  [View news story]
    Not even close... Things are much worse then anybody ever thought..and will continue to get worse... The bubbles have begun popping.
    Jan 24 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Those jobs aren't coming back," said Steve Jobs to the President, who asked what it would take to bring Apple's production to the U.S. It's not just low wages, Chinese manufacturing infrastructure has grown to remarkable size and sophistication. Apple's contribution to U.S. employment will be through its stores, its empowerment of entrepreneurs, and jobs at cellular providers and shippers, but not the actual building of its products.  [View news story]
    As long as labor is cheaper elswehere, companies will go there...Not here in the USA... I would. They mostly have the same mentality...cheap labor costs=Bigger profits=Bigger CEO bonuses=Bigger stock price.
    Jan 22 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 2012 Will Be Way Better Than 2011 [View article]
    Yet I hear all the time how “things have never been this bad before.”

    That is because the bubble has bursted... and things will continue to get worse technically, not better in 2012 going into 2013...

    There is no evidence to suggest things are getting better and will be better in 2012... Unemployment/underempl... is still too high. Housing market is basically screwed to hell... Employment in this country sucks ass...People are not going to value themselves at $7.50/hr, when they are used to making $50/hr...

    There will be war.
    Jan 18 05:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll, followed by the start of a weak recovery in 2013. However, a stagnant 2012 and the meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.  [View news story]
    Also, if you believe long term growth is going to come back anytime between now and 2030, your just in denial... Bubbles pop...That's what they do...The growth we had in the housing market was all artificial when personal income only grows by 2% y/y and home prices go up 80%... It was inevitable that the bubble would have bursted..It was unsustainable.

    Also negative equity will persist for a long time to come...Will see another million foreclosures in 2012-2013...The USD bubble will burst in 2014-2015...

    But I could wrong, like some people here think I am, and everything will be all rosy again...Unemployment back below 5%, 250,000 median price for homes, etc.etc.etc...

    It aint gonna happen folks.
    Jan 16 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll, followed by the start of a weak recovery in 2013. However, a stagnant 2012 and the meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.  [View news story]
    We also have more people unemployed and underemployed then we did in the 30's(when adjusted for population) Housing wasn't as big of a problem in the 30's as it is today....

    The deleveraging, DEFLATION spiral will continue through 2030, as the entire world falls into massive depression...Oil will go to 150 or more as war breaks out with Iran(which I believe is inevitable at this point)...

    Will come out of it eventually, and the same insanity will continue until the next bubble pops...
    Jan 16 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll, followed by the start of a weak recovery in 2013. However, a stagnant 2012 and the meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.  [View news story]
    Because this time is different. You will see what I mean in a few years time...

    The entire world is just waiting on the USD bubble and US govt. debt bubbles to both pop... Once this happens, the FED won't be able to finance it's debt... The Govt. will be at its knees.... The will have to print money and create 100%%'s in inflation to keep the govt. running...Essentially, they have already begun doing so... Home prices wont go back up for years after the USD bubble pops(which is 2nd after the US govt. debt bubble)... Demand will drop by 40-50%...and the country will be in depression....Also by 2015, (at the current rates Obama has in place) our total US debt will surpass our total US assets(as a whole)..excludiing 115 trillion in unfunded liablities...
    Jan 16 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
229 Comments
216 Likes