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Josh ODonnell

Josh ODonnell
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  • The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll, followed by the start of a weak recovery in 2013. However, a stagnant 2012 and the meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.  [View news story]
    We aren't in any cycle...Cycles have ended when real(not bubble) growth ended... The Fed has been trying to reinflate the housing bubble..but it wont work...They can print a quadrillion more dollars..it wont make a dent.

    Get the world CYCLE out of the equation..There are NO CYCLES here...Growth is over people...Please...your either in denial or dont understand what happened back in 2008...You will see pockets of short term growth here and there because money has to go somewhere...

    LONG TERM GROWTH IS OVER..... ITS' NOT GONNA HAPPEN..
    Jan 15, 2012. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll, followed by the start of a weak recovery in 2013. However, a stagnant 2012 and the meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.  [View news story]
    Yeah..home prices will continue its fall...through 2015 right around when the the USD bubble will burst... then all hell REALLy breaks loose.
    Jan 15, 2012. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't get out the champagne yet - the 2012 economy will still be disappointing despite a run of good data culminating in the last jobs report, Laura D'Andrea Tyson says. Growth should fall short of what's needed to absorb labor even under good assumptions, and an output gap of more than 7% will be hard to bridge. And don't forget still-high household debt is pumping up.  [View news story]
    When you have multi-linked bubbles that pop all at the same time...you could have one hell of a problem...In 2008, the stock market bubble, discretionary spending bubble and private debt bubbles all popped, along with the housing bubble...You are right...we are continuing to see a massive amount of deleveraging going on in some of the biggest banks in the country...along w/ personal deleveraging as well...Incomes are basically dead..so no real income growth.
    The problem right now, is there is no real long term plan set forth by the government to get the country back to growth.... but it wont matter in a few years, when the US govt debt and USD bubbles both pop..one after the other... It will chaos... But the world will come out of it...excluding unfunded liablities in S.S./medicare which now total 117 Trillion...
    Jan 14, 2012. 09:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Investment Choices To Cope With The 'Great Contraction' [View article]
    Id stay away from buying any type of housing investment until the USD bubble and US govt debt bubbles burst... Were going to see devaulations of about 80-90% in the real estate market... A worldwide depression is in the making in the next few years...

    Buying long term options or stock on housing is the worst possible thing to do at this moment in time. WAIT UNTIL THE DOLLAR BUBBLE POPS BEFORE BUYING ANYTHING.... What happens in China stays in China...

    The dollar bubble popping will be massive...
    Jan 14, 2012. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll, followed by the start of a weak recovery in 2013. However, a stagnant 2012 and the meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.  [View news story]
    But because the rest of the economy was in a bubble..inflation will NOT raise home prices...Home prices will continue to depreciate through 2015 and further.... The dollar bubble should show signs of popping around that time...along with the US govt. debt bubble. (YOU CAN NOT REINFLATE A BUBBLE ONCE IT HAS BEGUN BURSTING.....NOT EVEN THE FED CAN....THEY CAN PRINT A QUADRILLION MORE DOLLARS...IT WONT MAKE A DENT)

    "The thing that amazes me is there are millions of renters and new family formations out there that are stuck in an alternative because the banks won't let the foreclosures clear (obviously because they don't want to take the hit to earnings and assets). But if they were to let the market clear, then the reset would happen much, much faster."----
    Even if that happens though, homes prices won't go back up in the long term...There are just too many NEW foreclosures in the works for the next 5 years....and income growth is dead...so is the job market.

    Also keep in mind that the housing bubble that has already begun popping, wont stop for a long time.... The depreciation of home values will continue through 2015... It is a mathematical certainty.
    Jan 14, 2012. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The five-year slide in U.S. home prices will end this year, according to a Reuters poll, followed by the start of a weak recovery in 2013. However, a stagnant 2012 and the meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.  [View news story]
    Housing wont recover until unemployment gets back below 5%....And even though...whose to say the people working will be able to afford a home anyway...w/ little to no income growth.....

    The entire system needs to reset itself...and that will take years...probably wont see housing come back for the long term until 2020...or later. 2013? not happening. Acutally housing wont come back until the US govt debt and USD dollar bubbles both burst...that moment is approaching..
    Jan 13, 2012. 08:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    In 2015 or sooner...it wont matter how well anybody thinks...Because the other 2 bubbles will already be bursting...
    Thats the USD bubble and the US Govt. Debt bubble...and they will trigger a multi-layer devaulation across the entire country and world of which we have never seen before in history... 2008 was just the beginning...Bubbles can't be reinflated..so what will see is very low growth and the labor participation rate will go even lower.... 2014 will be the threshold...between Total U.S. assets and total Debt... Our Total Debt will surpass our total assets...then we will be officially bankrupt as a nation.(according to our GDP and debt..we have already reached that point...but not with assets...just GDP)
    Jan 11, 2012. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ICSC Retail Store Sales: -5.4% W/W, vs. +1.2% last week. It's the largest weekly decline in data going back to 1989. +2.8% Y/Y, vs. +5.3% last week. Warm weather, and its negative effect on seasonal goods, is apparently behind the fall; weak consumer sentiment isn't mentioned.  [View news story]
    I blame Obama
    Jan 10, 2012. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    Craig,

    As long as manufacturing is cheaper in China, manufacturing jobs WILL NOT COME BACK TO AMERICA... It is as simple as that. The great industrial nation that once WAS america is no longer.

    Most are living off savings, inheritance...The others are working for $7.50/hr....Just take a look at the Labor Not=in Force and Labor participation rates for the 4 years.....

    And CEO's are making there un-deserved 50 million dollar payouts each year...It is sickening.
    Jan 9, 2012. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    Also education and skills/ and all the other B.S...really is B.S...because nobody is going to set there standard of living under the poverty level with a Masters or PHD...It ain't happening... And most companies that are hiring...are hiring for less money!

    in order for the economy to grow, consumer spending has to grow...In order for consumer spending to grow..INCOME HAS TO GROW...otherwise go to capital one, discover, or AMEX and spend that way...get into debt..then file bankruptcy again, and again, and again... That is already happening trend...Would not be surprised if C.C. defaults rise in 1st and 2nd quarter of 2012..
    Jan 8, 2012. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    We didnt dodge anything...They are just pro-longing the inevitable...which is a complete collapse of capitalism as we know it. And the bubble didn't start in the 60's..It started in the 80's...then ended w/ Clinton who actually balanced a budget...It wasn't until Bush Sr. and Bush Jr..who really Fuc*ed everybody up.

    They printed trillions of dollars to bail the banks out...My money..my kid's money and my grand kid's money are all gone.... The middle class got sold out pal. We are the new NINJA generation..(No Income, No JOB, No assets)... and boomers are hanging on by continuing to work because they lost all there money in the crash of 08...

    One more point...Its true we had 30 years of growth post WWII...but we were not in a bubble then(it wasn't artifical)... the real racking up of debt took place in the 80's... look up the stats. Also, we will never have that kind of growth ever again...and if we do..it wont be long lasting...just like in the next 4-5 years...

    Which is when I believe the USD bubble will burst..along with the US govt. debt bubble...Housing has already begun its descent...By 2015 70 million people will be on food stamps w/135% debt to GDP or MORE. So please don't tell me things are better...There not..There worse pal. Much MUCH worse... The M2 money supply has almost reach 10 Trillion, and the labor particiaption rate is continuing its downtrend...and will probably reach 1950 levels sooner then most think.
    Jan 7, 2012. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    Craig,

    Things wont change...Demographics are irrelevant in a post-bubble modern economy. So what!, your hiring..but can't find qualified people...In the bigger picture, it wont matter when 2015 comes around, and the US govt. debt bubble(which will be 135% debt to GDP..and counting) bursts. 50% unemployment, stocks/bonds/investments are finished. And home prices decline 90%.

    Your just looking at the current picture.... Its unsustainable pal. Nothing Obama or the current administration is doing will avoid the coming collapse. And where did it all start?
    Early 80's. when the US govt was racking up huge billion dollar deficets..money they couldn't pay back...
    In the entire scheme of things...it wont matter because everything that people have worked hard for the last 50 years or so, will vanish.

    It is not cyclical...Its a massive bubble that has already begun popping..and they are all linked to each other...
    Jan 7, 2012. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    Also have to keep in mind..the population is continuing to grow and there aren't enough jobs for everybody and there wont be in the next 5 years....Some of these people are gonna have to leave the country or die off...especially the baby boomers...since they Fuc*ed this country up enough as it is...with buying homes they couldn't afford, and then using taxpayers dollars to bail them out. the bastards.
    Jan 6, 2012. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    The very basic fundamentals of the economy are finished. I disagree with Craig...There are lots of qualified workers out there...that just dont want to work..period. And good for them...I believe they are worth more then $7.50 an/hr...

    You are also missing the much MUCH bigger picture.... The economy overall is getting worse.. Its like one guy says: "Its a recession if your neighbor losses his home, but its a depression if you lose your's." And its so true... The rich have been very selfish.. Bush has screwed the middle class and Obama is doing the same.
    I dont blame people for not wanting to work...especially for some shitty wage and then get laid off a few months later anyway.

    Capitalism works well....only for the rich.
    Jan 6, 2012. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: +200K vs. consensus of +155K, +100K (revised) prior. Unemployment 8.5% vs 8.7% expected. Avg. hourly earnings +0.2% to $23.24. Workweek +0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  [View news story]
    Its not a "new" economy...Its a post-bubble world economy...and it will never be the same as it was before. Its the reason why labor, and home prices will continue to go lower. The 200K # are mostly seasonal jobs..that will expire in a few months...the real rate of unemployment is closer to 25%(right around 1933 levels)...

    Things are getting worse in this country..not better. Just because you create a job, doesn't mean it will be long lasting....Most of the jobs being created now will be gone a few months...
    Jan 6, 2012. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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