Mayukh Mukherjee's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/4793671/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1388761/comments?source=feed#comment-18362521 18362521 Thu, 02 May 2013 12:48:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1388761/comments?source=feed#comment-18362441 18362441
IBM is a solid long-term stock precisely because of their superb capital allocation process. They tend to get good revenue growth every 3-4 years, followed by flat or declining revenues. They have figured out how to ride out these lean years by managing margins and cashflows. When they do generate solid revenues, they can pay down debt and relax on the margin front. Its a cycle they have ridden before and seem to have perfected.]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 12:47:15 -0400
IBM is a solid long-term stock precisely because of their superb capital allocation process. They tend to get good revenue growth every 3-4 years, followed by flat or declining revenues. They have figured out how to ride out these lean years by managing margins and cashflows. When they do generate solid revenues, they can pay down debt and relax on the margin front. Its a cycle they have ridden before and seem to have perfected.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1369171/comments?source=feed#comment-18235041 18235041 Its called scenario analysis, you should try it sometimes.
Self promotion on SA, shocking!]]> Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:50:11 -0400 Its called scenario analysis, you should try it sometimes.
Self promotion on SA, shocking!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1369171/comments?source=feed#comment-18140581 18140581
I've got an article coming out on IBM too, maybe next week.

Cheers ]]> Fri, 26 Apr 2013 13:32:34 -0400
I've got an article coming out on IBM too, maybe next week.

Cheers ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1369831/comments?source=feed#comment-18127391 18127391 Fri, 26 Apr 2013 09:49:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1369171/comments?source=feed#comment-18123561 18123561
Assumptions (the ones driving lowering of free cashflows):
1. Taxes increase gradually from about 24% at current levels to 40% in year 10. More taxes means less after-tax income to generate free cashflows

2. Reinvestments at IBM are currently negative.. (net capex - change in working cap). This isn't sustainable and the model corrects for that in the long term. Theoretically the long-term reinvestment rate is tied to long-term growth rate and the return on capital. As the reinvestment rate goes up, free cashflows to the firm goes down.

Sounds like academic jargon, I know, but dcf's are a theoretical construct after all

I adjusted some of the numbers and I got upto $160/share as an intrinsic valuation. -- http://bit.ly/12sFfO5]]> Fri, 26 Apr 2013 08:35:42 -0400
Assumptions (the ones driving lowering of free cashflows):
1. Taxes increase gradually from about 24% at current levels to 40% in year 10. More taxes means less after-tax income to generate free cashflows

2. Reinvestments at IBM are currently negative.. (net capex - change in working cap). This isn't sustainable and the model corrects for that in the long term. Theoretically the long-term reinvestment rate is tied to long-term growth rate and the return on capital. As the reinvestment rate goes up, free cashflows to the firm goes down.

Sounds like academic jargon, I know, but dcf's are a theoretical construct after all

I adjusted some of the numbers and I got upto $160/share as an intrinsic valuation. -- http://bit.ly/12sFfO5]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1369171/comments?source=feed#comment-18102581 18102581
From an intrinsic valuation perspective I get about $120 http://bit.ly/10g5Ut4 -- but I feel that a dcf of free cashflows (in the traditional sense) misses out on how IBM is generating positive returns for an investor]]> Thu, 25 Apr 2013 17:42:08 -0400
From an intrinsic valuation perspective I get about $120 http://bit.ly/10g5Ut4 -- but I feel that a dcf of free cashflows (in the traditional sense) misses out on how IBM is generating positive returns for an investor]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1349151/comments?source=feed#comment-17777681 17777681 Thu, 18 Apr 2013 08:01:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1340731/comments?source=feed#comment-17664371 17664371
http://bit.ly/14qQUBp]]> Mon, 15 Apr 2013 17:32:27 -0400
http://bit.ly/14qQUBp]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1331611/comments?source=feed#comment-17448731 17448731
I view MSFT purely as an enterprise play with the consumer segment (search,xbox etc) as an added bonus.]]> Wed, 10 Apr 2013 11:14:09 -0400
I view MSFT purely as an enterprise play with the consumer segment (search,xbox etc) as an added bonus.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1324211/comments?source=feed#comment-17444961 17444961
DDD seems to be leading right now, but I feel its too expensive even after dropping 30% in 3 months. Despite putting in optimistic revenue estimates of over 40% revenue growth for the next 5 years, I still find the stock being fairly priced at around $30.

The other concern is what are the barriers to entry in this space ? If the market continues to grow astronomically, I'd expect stronger, well capitalized entrants into this space.

So yes, very excited about 3D printing, just don't see a clear long-term investing opportunity in it yet.]]> Wed, 10 Apr 2013 09:55:19 -0400
DDD seems to be leading right now, but I feel its too expensive even after dropping 30% in 3 months. Despite putting in optimistic revenue estimates of over 40% revenue growth for the next 5 years, I still find the stock being fairly priced at around $30.

The other concern is what are the barriers to entry in this space ? If the market continues to grow astronomically, I'd expect stronger, well capitalized entrants into this space.

So yes, very excited about 3D printing, just don't see a clear long-term investing opportunity in it yet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1328011/comments?source=feed#comment-17422011 17422011
Valuation:
20% annual revenue growth (steady for 5 years then tapering), 16% operating margins and 10% cost of capital gives me around $26.. http://bit.ly/149Jv9x

Comparisons:
Comparing RHT against Oracle,CRM and CA leads me to believe that while this definitely a strong competitor I don't see anything that stands out
http://bit.ly/149Jv9x

disclosure: getquisearch.com is a tool that I've been working on to help me do long-term valuations. still a work in progress]]> Tue, 09 Apr 2013 18:04:57 -0400
Valuation:
20% annual revenue growth (steady for 5 years then tapering), 16% operating margins and 10% cost of capital gives me around $26.. http://bit.ly/149Jv9x

Comparisons:
Comparing RHT against Oracle,CRM and CA leads me to believe that while this definitely a strong competitor I don't see anything that stands out
http://bit.ly/149Jv9x

disclosure: getquisearch.com is a tool that I've been working on to help me do long-term valuations. still a work in progress]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1146941/comments?source=feed#comment-14421521 14421521
However the major concern for me is the -ve gap between operating cash versus earnings and the fact that op cash has been volatile. Haven't done a deeper dive into why that is but maybe one of these days.

I've liked DELL for the last 3 months now!]]> Thu, 31 Jan 2013 16:02:18 -0500
However the major concern for me is the -ve gap between operating cash versus earnings and the fact that op cash has been volatile. Haven't done a deeper dive into why that is but maybe one of these days.

I've liked DELL for the last 3 months now!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1146611/comments?source=feed#comment-14421481 14421481
Add that to the level of dilution in shares over the last 5 years makes me not trust how much further they will go that route.

Still like the business fundamentals though (strong revenues, earnings, operating cash, roe, margins) just not willing to buy at this price.]]> Thu, 31 Jan 2013 16:01:50 -0500
Add that to the level of dilution in shares over the last 5 years makes me not trust how much further they will go that route.

Still like the business fundamentals though (strong revenues, earnings, operating cash, roe, margins) just not willing to buy at this price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1146451/comments?source=feed#comment-14420821 14420821 Thu, 31 Jan 2013 15:57:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4793671-mayukh-mukherjee/1259731-dumpster-diving-series-bby-starts-to-look-promising?source=feed#comment-11469771 11469771 Sun, 11 Nov 2012 01:27:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4793671-mayukh-mukherjee/1259781-dumpster-diving-series-nokia-looks-enticing-but-wait-for-those-lumias-to-sell-first?source=feed#comment-11412751 11412751
My only concern is that its an all or nothing strategy with Lumia and Windows 8. And I when I mentioned free-fall I specifically was talking about handset sales. They are down double digits in every quarter.

Cheers]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 09:03:13 -0500
My only concern is that its an all or nothing strategy with Lumia and Windows 8. And I when I mentioned free-fall I specifically was talking about handset sales. They are down double digits in every quarter.

Cheers]]>