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Thomas began his investing career as an amateur investor in 2001, quickly honing his craft. Having worked as a banker for both JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, he acquired enough capital by the year 2008 to quit his banking career and go full-time as an investor. He devoted himself to research... More
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  • Silver- Big Move Coming!

    by Thomas Calvert

    The US Federal Reserve's decision not to taper Qualitative Easing was no surprise to some analysts. As Patrick Montesdeoca has discussed before with Rick Rule, President of Sprott Asset Management USA, and he reiterated in a recent interview, QE is not a program to add liquidity. There is plenty of liquidity in the markets. Rule said, "The federal government is spending $1.2 trillion per year more then it takes in." The government can borrow about half of that amount, but to get the other half, it has to create it. QE is a means to create the money needed to cover the difference between government income and spending. Or, as Mr. Rule said, and I agree, "It is counterfeit, plain and simple."

    The mainstream media has spent a great deal of time on the current debt ceiling impasse. Mr. Rule believes that the politicians will find a way to agree to raise the debt ceiling for the simple reason that if they do not, they will have to significantly cut spending. As Mr. Rule said, "They will find a way to continue to perpetrate this fraud, and find a way through it... There are some concrete spending measures they could take, but if they save money in one column, it's already spent in several other columns." (click here for full interview)

    In my last post, I speculated there would possibly be some further weakness in the silver market. I am using this continued weakness to add to my long term holdings given the strong fundamentals supporting the market. Despite the fact I am a silver and gold bug, I am not always bullish on the shorter term time frames and it doesn't mean that I will buy at any price. That is why I am writing these reports to help those of you who are buying gold and silver to be patient and learn to buy when it makes sense. The key point here is that both technical analysis and fundamental analysis have to match up. This is where indicators like The VC Price Momentum Indicator can come in handy.

    Chart 1 is the Weekly VC chart. These numbers are generated before the week begins and can improve your entry points into the gold and silver markets with uncanny accuracy. Throughout the week the S1 level (which is the first red line) served as key resistance in the silver market. If you were long with your swing trades on shorter term time frames this would have been an ideal place to take profits. Today support has come in around the B1 line (the first Green line) which would serve as support going into the weekly close. This would be a great time to add to any current positions or take a short term trade. Notice how the RSI was in oversold conditions as soon as we touched the B1 line. Based off these charts, I would be expecting a quick bounce the beginning of next week; however, the shorter term trends still remains sideways as noted on Charts 2 & 3.

    Chart 1
    (click to enlarge)

    Charts 2 and 3 clearly show the long term trend line from $34/oz. silver back in December 2012. We have yet to clear this trend line and it is quickly meeting up with an intermediate term trend line from the recent lows at $18/oz. Fundamentals put aside, these competing trend lines have been leading to our sideways to lower price action since August. It looks as if we should have a resolution by the end of October or early November. From this a major move should occur establishing a strong trend in either direction. I am expecting the next move to be up, but I do not plan on being the silver "bug" that gets squashed. So as a precautionary, I will be hedging my long position using "puts". If I am right and the move is to the upside, we could quickly see a retest of $26/ ounce. I have writing about this for several months now. (posts)

    Chart 2

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

    Disclosure: I am long AGQ, PSLV, GLD. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Oct 13 5:54 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The VC Weekly Futures Swing Trading Instructions - 9.13.2013

    Signals are automatically generated by integrating electronic weekly statistics with proprietary algorithms.

    GOLD

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The December gold futures contract closed at 1328 . The market closing below the 18 MA (1340) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bearish. A close above the 18 MA would negate the weekly bearish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing below the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 1343 it confirms that the price momentum is bearish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY CODE PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 1290 to 1253 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 1253 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 1380 to 1433 levels during the week.

    SILVER

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The December Silver futures contract closed at 22.28. The market closing above the 9 day MA (21.90) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 9 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing below the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 22.65, it confirms that the price momentum is bearish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY CODE PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 21.05 to 19.82 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 19.82 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 23.88 to 25.48 levels during the week.

    B POUND

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The B Pound - PA Index contract closed at 158.76. The market closing above the 18 day MA (153.92) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 158.13 it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 157.42 to 156.07 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 156.07 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 159.48 to 160.19 levels during the week.

    EURO

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The Euro - PA Index contract closed at 132.96. The market closing above the 9 day MA (132.73) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 132.70, it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 132.15 to 131.35 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 131.35 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 133.51 to 134.05 levels during the week.

    AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The Australian dollar - PA Index contract closed at 92.51. The market closing above the 18 MA (91.27) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing below the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 92.80, it confirms that the price momentum is bearish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover shorts on corrections at the 92.22 to 91.93 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 91.53 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits, if long, as we reach the 93.09 to 93.67 levels during the week.

    E MINI S&P 500

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The Dec E Mini futures contract closed at 1.683. The market closing above the 18 day MA (1.644) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM PRICE INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 1.671, it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 1.659 to 1.634 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 1.634 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 1.696 to 1.708 levels during the week.

    SOYBEANS

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The Nov Soybeans futures contract closed at 13.82. The market closing above the 9 day MA (12.85) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 9 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 13.74, it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 14.08 to 14.34 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 14.34 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 13.48 to 13.14 levels during the week.

    CRUDE OIL

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The October Crude Oil contract closed at 108.6. The market closing above the 9 MA (106.98) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 9 MA would negate the weekly bullish trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 108.48, it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover shorts on corrections at the 106.51 to 104.41 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 104.41 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits, if long, as we reach the 110.58 to 112.55 levels during the week.

    TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

    Tags: GLD, SLV, FXB, FXE, FXA, SPY, MOO, DBA, UNG, commodities
    Sep 14 6:25 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The VC Weekly Futures Swing Trading Instructions 9.6.2013

    Signals are automatically generated by integrating electronic weekly statistics with proprietary algorithms.

    GOLD

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The December gold futures contract closed at 1391 . The market closing above the 18 MA (1344) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 1399 it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY CODE PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 1361 to 1332 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 1332 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 1418 to 1445 levels during the week.

    SILVER

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The December Silver futures contract closed at 23.90. The market closing above the 18 day MA (21.63) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 23.82, it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY CODE PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 23.12 to 22.33 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 22.33 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 24.61 to 25.31 levels during the week.

    B POUND

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The B Pound - PA Index contract closed at 156.35. The market closing above the 18 day MA (154.33) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 156.13 it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 155.44 to 154.54 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 154.54 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 157.03 to 157.72 levels during the week.

    EURO

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The Euro - PA Index contract closed at 131.11. The market closing below the 18 day MA (132.48) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bearish. A close above the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing below the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 131.48, it confirms that the price momentum is bearish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 130.73 to 130.36 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 130.36 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 131.86 and 132.60 levels during the week.

    AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The Australian dollar - PA Index contract closed at 91.90. The market closing below the 18 MA (91.07) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 18 MA would negate the weekly bullish trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 91.44, it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover shorts on corrections at the 90.70 to 89.51 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 89.51 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits, if long, as we reach the 92.63 to 93.36 levels during the week.

    E MINI S&P 500

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The Sep E Mini futures contract closed at 1.647. The market closing below the 18 day MA (1.664) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bearish. A close above the 18 MA would negate the weekly bearish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM PRICE INDICATOR

    With the market closing below the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 1.643, it confirms that the price momentum is bearish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 1.628 to 1.610 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 1.610 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 1.661 to 1.676 levels during the week.

    SOYBEANS

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The Nov Soybeans futures contract closed at 13.71. The market closing above the 9 day MA (13.71) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 9 MA would negate the weekly bullish short-term trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing at the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 13.71, it confirms that the price momentum is neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover short on corrections at the 13.35 to 12.98 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 12.98 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits on longs, as we reach the 14.08 to 14.44 levels during the week.

    CRUDE OIL

    WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGES

    The October Crude Oil contract closed at 110.31. The market closing above the 9 MA (106.52) is confirmation that the trend momentum is bullish. A close below the 9 MA would negate the weekly bullish trend to neutral.

    VC CODE WEEKLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR

    With the market closing above the VC Weekly Price Momentum Indicator of 108.41, it confirms that the price momentum is bullish.

    VC CODE WEEKLY PRICE INDICATOR

    Cover shorts on corrections at the 106.11 to 102 levels and go long on a weekly reversal stop. If long, use the 102 level as a Stop Close Only and Good Till Cancelled order. Look to take some profits, if long, as we reach the 112.60 to 114.89 levels during the week.

    TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

    Sep 09 2:02 PM | Link | Comment!
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