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tripleblack

tripleblack
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  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Added some at $9.65 today. Building about 30% of position goal.
    Oct 20 03:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Yes, but I would wait to see what impact the new shelf might have. I also would not be surprised to see it have a negative, neutral or positive effect, given the overall situation. Its the uncertainty that makes me wait for the filing and to see how it is greeted by the market. The original filing was withdrawn so quickly that it had little time for the market to digest.
    Oct 20 07:48 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Look over the $5billion shelf they filed last week, then withdrew (noting some errors). They will almost certainly refile, with the same plan...

    I actually like the $5billion shelf DEPENDING on how they handle it. Its part of the DD needed right now, imo...
    Oct 18 06:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Sweden has a long history of confusing domestic social engineering fighting constantly variable internal goals with national economic policies fighting constantly variable external conditions.

    They have been slowly awakening from their long dream of having their social cake and eating it, too...

    Could this be the inflection point wake up call?

    Probably not. More likely they will blame the problem on external issues having to do with their neighbors.

    A vocal majority will point at immigration as a key issue, however.

    I wonder how many other European nations are as persistent in clinging to their dreams as the Swedes...
    Oct 16 05:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    As I hope everyone knows, I treat my choice of illustration as an indicator of my ideas about market conditions, whenever I can...
    Oct 16 12:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Blood in the streets.

    My favorite time of year...

    Now to wait for the flood to dip just a little.

    Monitoring rate of coagulation...

    Tiger mode engaged.
    Oct 16 10:00 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Strong $ is a complex but fascinating topic...

    For many years it has been posited that China would undercut the $ and destabilize the US financial system by selling their $investments in US debt instruments. I have always viewed this as unlikely, whereas I have been expecting a phase in the currency wars in which China would require either a strong dollar OR a weaker yuan, at which time the world powers would have a choice to make.

    Another theory has long held that the US $ is, despite popular opinion, backed by enormous real assets, ie, oil (among other commodities traded globally in US $). Hence, the oil$ tends to move inverse to oil prices, as evidenced by current events. The byzantine geopolitical situation simultaneously mixing Russian imperial ambitions and the ME implosion is, imo, the objective reality which has triggered moves in both Beijing and Washington to address multiple issues, with a major effect being the impact on the currency exchanges.

    After a good bit of thought, I see the Russian/ME crisis as the cause, and the strong oil$ (and weak oil) as the effect, but we do not yet know how it will all play out.

    If nothing else, a slate of problems for the powers that be in Washington are addressed by these events. Putin's plans are derailed and his EU gambit is emasculated. China avoids cutting its currency to maintain its captive Western markets, and achieves a soft landing for its new plans for its economy. The US avoids an open currency/financial war with its primary creditor, and defuses several awkward domestic situations featuring a growing power base in sectors (fossil fuel production and consumption) unpalatable to the current leftist government. While all political groups give lip service to the concept of curtailing oil imports, the reality is that the current Ins are much more comfortable with oil imports than oil production.

    Another important aspect of a suddenly strong US oil$ is its ability to export inflation to the third world, something which has often happened in the past. Inflationary pressures which had been growing recently in the American economy will abate, as the strong oil$ works its power.

    Worries about the EU deflation problem creeping across the Atlantic are, imo, overblown. American multinationals may realign their plans somewhat, delaying certain offshoring activities and perhaps even moving a few high profile operations back to the US or Canada, but the challenges faced by a still-growing North American Union vs the stagnant or shrinking demographics in the EU are very different. The primary dangers have always been the government-level shared financial risks between the NAU and the EU, which are more worrisome to me than either whatever happens with QE-uber-alles or interest rates zero or minus.

    I suspect that it might be possible to chart an investment course using the oil$ as a guide, but the government intervention is so complex as to make any such effort risky.
    Oct 15 09:02 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital files $5B mixed shelf [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/1u0ZFZR

    They just filed a RW to withdraw the shelf.
    Oct 14 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    I believe we are near (or at or even past) capitulation in a number of sectors. Portfolio components designed to yield ongoing earnings are worth a look.
    Oct 13 03:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Price delivered to various key locations (such as Gulf refineries, for instance) will be an interesting number...
    Oct 13 11:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Local governments in many states are restrained from deficit spending, and face powerful resistance to the alternative (tax increases), including state government controls. One way around these barriers has long been via the bond markets. I agree, MJ, this will quickly (almost instantly) force these governments to react with higher taxes or curtailed services. The wealthy will, of course, share in the new tax load, but the poor will shoulder much of the burden of curtailed public services.

    In any list of "unforeseen outcomes" from soft-headed government meddling, this one has a page all its own.
    Oct 13 10:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    The comparison should include Mongolian resources, particularly Outer Mongolia (Springer could inject real insight here, of course). Both Mongolias are will within the inner circle of China's sphere of influence.

    I view current events as tying directly to my theory that China will use their purchasing power to project geopolitical power. Australia has been resisting China's effort to buy up their key resources and grab control of Australian resources...

    The mineral development plans in Outer Mongolia could see a big increase very quickly. Coal and iron among them.

    As for oil, one of the major supports propping up the gulf's oil powers has been their ability to use American and European dependence on their supply to pursue political stability and protect their power base. As this holds slips away, they are losing their grip, and this is seen by groups like ISIS but also many others, so the stability of the entire region is affected. This is both unsurprising and difficult to quantify, so the loss of control at all levels can be viewed as the result of ignorance of what the immediate future will bring as the weakening of traditional political structures. The Sauds, for instance, have a long standing knee jerk reaction to such situations that involves widening the oil tap and playing the major powers off against one another. This may even be at work soon, crazy as the idea might seem for them to worsen an oil surplus in a shaky global economy.

    As for investing in suppliers with large customers in China, I am as always cautious about this sort of play, but I would be looking at anyone whose business involves building very large storage and transport facilities for oil, specifically in China.
    Oct 13 10:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 372 Oct. 08 '14: Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014 [View instapost]
    Axion's love affair with NDA's would take care of any romantic problems.
    Oct 10 12:31 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 372 Oct. 08 '14: Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014 [View instapost]
    Maya, were they talking about setting up a margin account? Sounds like it.
    Oct 10 12:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    HFT programmer with an algorithmic sense of humor...

    I can see him looking at his pink sheet about 2 years ago, and burying this little present deep inside the machine.

    Creep probably then spent the next year and his life savings shorting the market, thinking the egg would hatch any second.
    Oct 10 08:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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