Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View tripleblack's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    I don't really get the oil price moving up because the old king died. This implies a big difference in basic policy solely due to Salman's position, which seems unlikely to me.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    I knew someone would grok it.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    The ECB is looking for strategic QE opportunities, and the EU is officially backing TAS...

    Its a buyer's market. Often the Europeans are more foresighted than the US (of course, that could also be damning them with faint praise)...

    More likely the Russians or Chinese would like to pickup a Silmet rejuvenated with Yankee dollars tossed down a black hole.

    What is likely is that the Federales will allow/encourage a MolyCorp failure, now that they have about a 6 week supply of strategic supplies stashed away (snark, maybe, sort of, welllll, probably pretty accurate).
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    The Fed cannot be a replacement for a competent government.
    Jan 22, 2015. 08:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    At such times I like to look at the cost of production for the item in question. Copper costs more to produce than the current price, so we will begin to see less efficient miners and smelters going into mothballs very quickly (already occurring, I suspect, though the announcements will trickle in after the fact). Marginal producers will curtail operations and hope for better pricing.

    Darwin must be smiling.

    At these prices even efficient operations will cancel spending programs and plans for growth. The seed corn of pre-producing properties will go fallow and many will die.

    When supply and demand regularize once again, we could see the market shift from low pricing to low available supply VERY quickly. Volatility and wild price gyrations are likely.

    Aluminum remains firmly tethered to the cheapest available energy source, so its costs will react quicker and more dynamically to energy prices than competitors like copper. Should energy prices keep tracking down, aluminum producers gain some breathing space to squeeze out profits, despite lower pricing...

    IF we see prices squeezed and energy prices shoot up, big aluminum could get caught in the vice.
    Jan 15, 2015. 12:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Pumping: Though it is indeed a big deal to totally shut down a pipeline once established, its quite possible to alter the operating pressure and volume throughput. Needless to say, optimal operating conditions are preferred to maximize profits, but...
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    QE is THE topic worldwide today.

    China has just launched its broadside, which is likely to be by far the largest single move short term, while Germany is whistling past the Athenian graveyard on the way to begrudgingly help the ECB "pump them up"...

    The US is, as usual, a loose cannon obsessed with its own political navel.

    But QE will be a big topic here, rest assured, though primarily ONLY a topic for the time being.
    Jan 14, 2015. 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Yes. Note that the $1.1trillion is part of a larger y10trillion (appx $1.5trillion) program running through 2016.

    I have heard that these figures do NOT include an accelerated buildup of their military, which will add another $.5trillion, though this is hard to verify (the Red Army does not publish their budgetary numbers, oddly enough).

    Big money, relative to the size of their economy. Stimulus on a mammoth scale.

    Part of the cost will be funded by huge new taxes levied on strategically selected industries, including all raw material production (strategic metals, REEs, gold, base metals, agricultural materials, etc, etc, etc). China is also installing the finishing touches on its all-encompassing suite of cartels, including tight central controls on operating (and particularly export) licenses. The cartels will be the key conduit to funnel government fee and tax income from strategic industries.

    Even so, much of the new infrastructure and military buildup will be funded with debt and yuan-printing.

    The push to attract foreign devil investors to allay much of the more risky investments is ongoing and successful. Expect many announcements of major investments by large Western corporations.

    These moves will also allow Beijing to maintain its preferred dollar/RMB exchange ratio, whatever that may be. This means that they are less dependent on whatever the Fed does with the $.
    Jan 14, 2015. 09:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Germany's control of the financial policy of the EU is starting to slip away. The more strident their proclamation, the more I suspect the opposite will occur.

    They are the victim of their own success. Having avidly sought to build a large sphere of economic influence (and captive market, of course), they now find themselves welded at the hip to their sickly customers.

    M.A.D. is achieved. Both sides have almost no room to maneuver if either is to avoid the whirling propeller blade.
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Jan 13, 2015. 06:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Just got off the phone with a family member in Kuwait. Word is that the Sauds and friends are REALLY worried about the Russians and Iranians (he mentioned a rumored nuke test looming in Iran), and fighting back with their most potent weapon, oil.

    American paranoia and theories about Saudi worries about market share are being discounted.

    Assuming it is a different sort of oil war, it may be time to start trying to assess the damage being done to the targets. Collateral damage to the small fry like Venezuela might be interesting, but Russia might be the better subject for study.
    Jan 13, 2015. 11:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    The US is lucky to have a large sacrificial goat to interpose between any heavy handed treatment of the Russian ego and punishment, ie, the EU, which is very dependent upon Russian energy supplies.

    I doubt the Obama Administration's new Cuba initiatives and dollar (non)diplomacy are helping the euro elites sleep soundly.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    I agree, Maya. Another powerful force will be the likely fall out yet to come in the currency wars, as we see a response from those caught leaning the wrong way or with too much of their wealth locked up behind a geopolitical barrier.

    Not all CBs and nation states are likely to respond to the currency wars by erecting trade barriers and capital controls, but many will, and I believe it would be unwise to exclude the United States, Europe, Canada, etc from the list.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    One thing to keep in mind when comparing current charting with historic market behavior is the fact that the new elements mentioned by DG now account for over 67% of all market volume. This means that these manipulators can, alone, make markets do what they want them to do. With only 1 in 3 transactions now occurring as 90% of such transactions were done a few decades back, the utility of historic verities and even "common sense" technical analysis (at least, TA based upon historic behavior) has been severely degraded.

    I have become a trader due to this, and that reflects my belief that it is very difficult to predict what the new pack of manipulators running the markets will do, particularly as a hunting pack...

    As has been true since the dinosaurs ruled the planet, when you are small and weak, you had better be fleet of foot and nimble.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    I would expect the attempt this time to be targeted on a moment of desperation, ie, funding crisis (and who better to know its coming than NC?).

    I would also anticipate that the talks to re-engineer Lynas' debt might have hit a snag, which is of course potentially very bad news.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment