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tripleblack

tripleblack
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  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    The US is lucky to have a large sacrificial goat to interpose between any heavy handed treatment of the Russian ego and punishment, ie, the EU, which is very dependent upon Russian energy supplies.

    I doubt the Obama Administration's new Cuba initiatives and dollar (non)diplomacy are helping the euro elites sleep soundly.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    I agree, Maya. Another powerful force will be the likely fall out yet to come in the currency wars, as we see a response from those caught leaning the wrong way or with too much of their wealth locked up behind a geopolitical barrier.

    Not all CBs and nation states are likely to respond to the currency wars by erecting trade barriers and capital controls, but many will, and I believe it would be unwise to exclude the United States, Europe, Canada, etc from the list.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    One thing to keep in mind when comparing current charting with historic market behavior is the fact that the new elements mentioned by DG now account for over 67% of all market volume. This means that these manipulators can, alone, make markets do what they want them to do. With only 1 in 3 transactions now occurring as 90% of such transactions were done a few decades back, the utility of historic verities and even "common sense" technical analysis (at least, TA based upon historic behavior) has been severely degraded.

    I have become a trader due to this, and that reflects my belief that it is very difficult to predict what the new pack of manipulators running the markets will do, particularly as a hunting pack...

    As has been true since the dinosaurs ruled the planet, when you are small and weak, you had better be fleet of foot and nimble.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    I would expect the attempt this time to be targeted on a moment of desperation, ie, funding crisis (and who better to know its coming than NC?).

    I would also anticipate that the talks to re-engineer Lynas' debt might have hit a snag, which is of course potentially very bad news.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    Look for NC to launch another bid to buy Crown, this time from outside the board room. Soon.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    Scandium is a skyhook story. Its going to take billions in risky investments to develop resources (which are often mentioned here among the ultrasmall cap mining sector) BEFORE the industrial applications become a powerful source of demand...

    So far, neither side has blinked, and it just keeps recycling the few prospects through round after round of mining the market rather than the metal.
    Dec 17, 2014. 03:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    I'm not a Lynas booster, far from it.

    But its a fascinating case, and probably always will be.

    Its also the poster child for geopolitical-myelitis. And probably always will be...
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    The worlds second largest and richest known deposit of niobium is part of the Crown deposit owned by Lynas.

    The Brazilian family that is mining the largest deposit is making billions but showing signs of acting like a monopoly...

    Go figure.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    OPEC stories fascinate me. How long has it been since they added new members?

    At some point all such attempts to control a commodity enter a "grow or die" period, and indeed, they have had quite a long run already.

    I see this as an insanely complex situation, however, and consider it unlikely we see it evolve abruptly into the full blown free market foreseen by the author.

    Imagine instead that they awaken their membership search committee from its long slumber...
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    It will be much safer to wait to re-enter oil patch plays until the turnaround happens, which should form a very sharp reversal inflection point.

    XOM has long since determined where its most profitable positions on the supply chain lie, and they are not at the two extremes (this also agrees with how many other such examples work).

    XOM withdrew completely from the US retail business, for instance, for this reason. And I view their current position, ie, in the market to buy producing assets when the market is creating extremely low costs for entry, as a positive.

    Execution, as usual, will winnow out the winners from the losers. Pure producers will be the tiny organisms that form the rich diet for the whales, and it will be difficult to trade this activity profitably. Best to, as you say, wait for the time being.
    Dec 13, 2014. 03:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Wayne: This viewpoint is a combination of the two prevailing mistaken ideas, ie, that big oil is only big oil, and its share price should track macro oil prices pretty closely (which concept is flawed and divorced from reality) AND, since its share price IS above oil price and oil price trends, its a poor investment because it "should" track with oil prices.

    I suppose one can either accept that there is no explanation for this (now long running) phenomenon, and expect it to revert to slavishly following oil price fluctuations, or look at low oil prices as actually favoring some large corporations that are titular "big oil" but also much, much more.

    I find this particular viewpoint expressed in that article as troubling. It presents data which attacks its own original premise, and then seeks to do some very questionable logical jujitsu to make it work for their opinion.
    Dec 13, 2014. 02:41 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    There were sneaky folks looking at the XOM play with this very scenario in mind... 2 years ago.

    The big diversified oil companies (like XOM) have been moving away from oil production and into chemicals, fertilizers, plastics, etc, etc, etc. XOM going up makes sense right now, as does DOW and other big chemical firms. Cheaper energy AND feed stocks = pricing power. Pure producers pay the freight for them.

    Its also why high oil prices surprise some folks when their "oil stock" isn't particularly strong when oil prices are strong.
    Dec 12, 2014. 06:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    The article references oil use efficiency expressed as a ratio to US GDP. The baseline is 1994, with GDP of just under 6trillion$. With a likely GDP in 2014 of about 16trillion$, we could be consuming more than twice the oil and still be much more "efficient".

    They also don't give us a direct link to the government source. When I went looking I found data based upon cost, ie, folks spent less on oil products.

    I see a very jumbled article.
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    http://reut.rs/1z7Ktis

    So, Venezuela is talking about an emergency meeting, though in March or perhaps April.

    This is called "floating an initiative" in political terms, ie, getting the phrase "emergency meeting" out there ahead of actually crashing the gates to demand action.

    Venezuela is arguably the weakest member (politically and perhaps economically) and I would consider them the canary in the mine shaft most likely to drop dead first.

    Next will come the bad boys of OPEC holding press conferences to trash the oil sheikhs for setting prices too low and producing too much.

    The unknown is what political or geopolitical event will change the prevailing winds...
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    You have my deepest sympathies, Maya. I lost an Aunt recently, while my wife lost her GodFather, and we lost a close friend as well. The holiday season seems to always extract a toll...
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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