Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View tripleblack's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    I believe we are near (or at or even past) capitulation in a number of sectors. Portfolio components designed to yield ongoing earnings are worth a look.
    Oct 13, 2014. 03:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Price delivered to various key locations (such as Gulf refineries, for instance) will be an interesting number...
    Oct 13, 2014. 11:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Local governments in many states are restrained from deficit spending, and face powerful resistance to the alternative (tax increases), including state government controls. One way around these barriers has long been via the bond markets. I agree, MJ, this will quickly (almost instantly) force these governments to react with higher taxes or curtailed services. The wealthy will, of course, share in the new tax load, but the poor will shoulder much of the burden of curtailed public services.

    In any list of "unforeseen outcomes" from soft-headed government meddling, this one has a page all its own.
    Oct 13, 2014. 10:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    The comparison should include Mongolian resources, particularly Outer Mongolia (Springer could inject real insight here, of course). Both Mongolias are will within the inner circle of China's sphere of influence.

    I view current events as tying directly to my theory that China will use their purchasing power to project geopolitical power. Australia has been resisting China's effort to buy up their key resources and grab control of Australian resources...

    The mineral development plans in Outer Mongolia could see a big increase very quickly. Coal and iron among them.

    As for oil, one of the major supports propping up the gulf's oil powers has been their ability to use American and European dependence on their supply to pursue political stability and protect their power base. As this holds slips away, they are losing their grip, and this is seen by groups like ISIS but also many others, so the stability of the entire region is affected. This is both unsurprising and difficult to quantify, so the loss of control at all levels can be viewed as the result of ignorance of what the immediate future will bring as the weakening of traditional political structures. The Sauds, for instance, have a long standing knee jerk reaction to such situations that involves widening the oil tap and playing the major powers off against one another. This may even be at work soon, crazy as the idea might seem for them to worsen an oil surplus in a shaky global economy.

    As for investing in suppliers with large customers in China, I am as always cautious about this sort of play, but I would be looking at anyone whose business involves building very large storage and transport facilities for oil, specifically in China.
    Oct 13, 2014. 10:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 372 Oct. 08 '14: Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014 [View instapost]
    Axion's love affair with NDA's would take care of any romantic problems.
    Oct 10, 2014. 12:31 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 372 Oct. 08 '14: Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014 [View instapost]
    Maya, were they talking about setting up a margin account? Sounds like it.
    Oct 10, 2014. 12:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    HFT programmer with an algorithmic sense of humor...

    I can see him looking at his pink sheet about 2 years ago, and burying this little present deep inside the machine.

    Creep probably then spent the next year and his life savings shorting the market, thinking the egg would hatch any second.
    Oct 10, 2014. 08:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Tiger: Original acrylic painting, 36x48", on board. I did this early this year, thinking that I need some large paintings and some wildlife (I do a number of wildlife-oriented art festivals). It draws Clemson, Auburn and LSU graduates like flies...

    Not Cinci fans so much, however, though I never go that far north anyway.

    The bit about the eyes is, indeed, tricky. It has to do with viewing distance to some extent, but its also the distance between the eyes as a proportion of the width of the painting. It will also seem to "track" you around the room, something which disturbs some folks.

    Due to its size, its a poor choice to hang in a small room or hallway, but its pure drama when it has room.
    Oct 9, 2014. 07:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Hi Jon, great to hear from you, DO drop in and keep us updated...

    Flu is the greatest killer in mankind's history (overall). Last I saw its responsible for 250-500,000 deaths worldwide each year (in an "average" year, "bad" years feature millions of deaths). No other virus or bacteria comes close, though pneumonia and the "common cold" families are in the running.

    Ebola becoming "flu-like" would indeed be devastating. The fact that it is more akin to HIV than flu is lucky for the human race. Ebola is not as hard to catch as HIV, but it's current iterations require bodily fluid transfers. It is also SO lethal that it tends to kill its victims before they can infect many others.

    An airborne version could be only 10% as lethal and still wreak havoc on the human race...

    I had a recent discussion on this topic with a neighbor who works for the CDC. Ebola strain typing has become a big deal with them, so they are expending lots of resources on tracking the disease, but thus far it is still behaving as it has in the past. What IS different is that even the depressed regions of Afrida where it is indemic are now accessible with high speed air travel and feature thousands of flights each year with very poor screening for health (and other) problems.

    Note the reports that the man who caused such a stir in Texas had to lie repeatedly on exit documents before boarding his flight to America, and the Liberian authorities intend to seek extradition in the unlikely event he survives the disease.

    Of course, that just shows that even in a "hot zone", sick people can get on a plane after simply telling a few lies to bored officials who lack the training or knowledge to spot any symptoms short of gushing blood.
    Oct 7, 2014. 04:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 371 Oct. 06 '14: BOD Approves 50:1 Rev. Split; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show; 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance [View instapost]
    My grandmother used to tell me "...when you can't say something good, say nothing at all..."
    Oct 7, 2014. 03:21 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    The (southern and eastern European) captive markets are beginning to figure things out. Bad news for the Germans...

    But who will escapees from the concentration camps, er, European markets, turn to for imported goods?

    Look for a shift, which, given the strong dollar, probably will NOT benefit the US at Germany's expense.

    I would not bet against the Chinese at this juncture, odd official reporting notwithstanding.
    Oct 6, 2014. 08:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    The Chinese are smiling...

    And I don't believe in coincidences.
    Oct 6, 2014. 08:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 [View instapost]
    I tend to agree about the veracity of Chinese data, generally, and specifically about REE's. I trust nothing from Chinese sources, and it must be remembered that their monopoly status means they also control the numbers which are near-universally repeated as authoritative in the media.

    As for the logical extrapolation which can be pulled indirectly from other news sources, dy being displaced by (for instance) the new Toshiba samarium-cobalt magnets... This is still questionable (though it was widely speculated as early as the Toshiba headlines in 2012).

    Samarium-cobalt magnets are prone to cracking and chipping, not a good thing when looking at installations in tough environments like cars, trucks, trains, or of course, wind power turbines. Still, I like them for some applications, particularly those where their particular strengths (slightly higher temperature tolerance than dy/nyd magnets) come into play.

    As a general rule, the "blood metal" status for cobalt affects its ready acceptance in green circles (though the blind spot for companies like Tesla, who use large quantities of cobalt via their old-school LI auto battery packs, is always surprising to me). Toshiba has been actively promoting its samarium/cobalt products, but other than early plans with some very high goals from 2013, I have not seen concrete results in the field just yet.

    Replacements for dy in other high tech areas, such as designs for lasers, would be another area of research.
    Oct 5, 2014. 04:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    The Brits love to bash Americans as "fat". The last study I saw did, indeed, place Americans as slightly heavier than the UK, BUT it was comparing apples and oranges to some extent. The UK study included 16 years olds - seniors, whereas the American study focused on 24 - seniors. The difference in avg weight for males, for instance was 7.5 pounds, with an avg around 194 pounds for Americans. Call it a difference of about 4%. One has to assume that 16 year old teens are almost invariably outweighed by older groups...

    Then there is the factor of height. Obviously, taller people tend to weigh more (all other factors being equal) than shorter people. There is little difference in height between the two groups, though there is evidence that Americans as a group are no longer "growing", whereas northern Europe might be. The fact that 16 year olds often continue to grow well into their 20's would indicate that the two demographic groups are probably much more similar than might be comfortable for the British ego.
    Oct 4, 2014. 12:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    More often when small companies hire acquisition specialists they are looking to sell rather than buy...
    Sep 24, 2014. 11:07 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment