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tripleblack

tripleblack
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  • Recent Stats Indicate U.S. Economic Recovery Was an Illusion [View article]
    Viva la revolucion!
    Feb 25 01:16 PM | 48 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 277: Oct. 19 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    Hmmmm, rule of thumb when reading major manufacturer press releases on topics like this:

    "...you are looking at all your options for your joint cell production in Kamenz, including a sale."

    Translation: We want OUT.

    "... I am very happy that we launched our own cell production with Evonik."

    Translation: We should never have done this.

    "It is a matter of putting cell production on a long-term basis without any time pressure."

    Translation: If we can't sell soon, we will have to shut it down and write the whole thing off.

    "At the same time, economies of scale are very important. That is why we are talking to practically every battery manufacturer, from Korea to Japan all the way to the U.S."

    Translation: Our JV is far too small to ever be viable, and we are desperate enough to take help from anyone, even the Americans.

    "We have plenty of time since the current battery technology for the Smart will be the basis for the next generation."

    Translation: We will accept older designs because we are so desperate to cut a deal.

    "Incidentally, I am very happy that we launched our own cell production with Evonik."

    Translation: I screwed up. I want my Mommy...

    "It has given us more expertise than any other automaker."

    Translation: We KNOW how bad an idea it really was, and promise NEVER to do it again.
    Oct 21 01:53 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 340 June 06 '14: Definitive Reverse Split Consent Solicitation; Q1 '1 CC Transcript & MP3 Available; Q1 '14 Filing Released;Axion Receives 4 Powercubes Order [View instapost]
    I knew we would reach some milestone that got pushed back while we got to actually watch actual paint actually dry...

    It was inevitable.

    The gods are laughing.
    Jun 10 04:19 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 261: August 18: 10Q Filing For Q2; Two Axion Forbes Articles; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    Just for the record, I read over these results every single day (and give HTL a thumbie). The amount of effort HTL is expending is immense.
    Aug 20 09:26 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 92: April 26, 2012: Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries [View instapost]
    If there was doubt that the last share offering (25million shares and change as I recall) was made to "firm hands", it would appear from the day's events that this idea can be discounted.

    This is not an utter surprise, particularly for those of us who have seen a similar result for other stocks using equity financing on a regular basis.

    Extracting something like 20% in quick profit as a sure thing (vs an uncertain future) are sound financial results, particularly in this brave new post-zirp world.

    I won't throw rocks at these "infirm" hands who received this almost brainless largesse due to their large footprint on some list of high networth investors. But I would point out that we longer horizon investors might want to recalibrate our expectations as the company grows from one equjity financing event to the next, and remember that in this upsidedown new investment landscape, good news prompts short attention span whales to sell early and often when they have been presented with a deep discount to attract their attention.

    I suppose we could try to estimate how much these million+ plus share days might decrease the store of available shares for the flippers, but I suspect it will take many more good news days to pump that well full of whale oil dry.
    Apr 26 12:50 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 272: Oct. 4 '13: APMarshall AGM Notes; 10Q Filing For Q2; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    No matter how you look at it, Axion is in what I view as a "vulnerable" condition.

    The definition of what might comprise a "catastrophic event" must be considered relative to the specific situation. What might be a minor problem for a large, healthy company could well derail Axion at this critical juncture.

    Should it become necessary for Axion to pay out the convertible notes in cash +penalties they will have little or no runway left, and must begin seeking a new round of funding.

    At this point the Axion story (short term) is about avoiding any extraordinary event (or even, LOL, an "ordinary" event which costs a lot) on the negative side of the equation, while simultaneously somehow engineering recurring and significant sales (which would BE an extraordinary event, given the history) on the positive side.

    An ironic analogy to the whole PbC battery story.
    Oct 8 10:15 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 271: September 30: '13 AGM Feedback, 10Q Filing For Q2; Two Axion Forbes Articles; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    I see the $.12 holding as a defensive move by some folks already holding a LOT of shares who really don't want to test what happens in the Penalty Box.

    The Gang of .25 is selling to clear the decks for the next influx of millions of shares about to wash over them.

    Meanwhile, all the good Axionistas sit patiently in the battery patch waiting for the arrival of the Great Pumpkin, er, "News". Last promise to expire was the "NSC to roll out 999 in September", oops, didn't happen, but then there is the usual codicil issued at a recent conference, that the Great News about the 999 will be slightly delayed until "October".

    Since the Great Pumpkin, er, "News" ALWAYS shows up in October, this came as no surprise to me of course.

    Linus and I are very patient...

    (Hey dude, its getting cold, how about sharing that blanket of yours?)
    Oct 1 06:31 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner [View article]
    I am now testing various company's emergency rations (foods meant to be compact and have very long shelf lives, planned to provide balanced nutrition in small, lightweight packages). I will report back. I find that the quality level of the food varies wildly, but of course you will be hearing just my own anecdotal taste buds talking!

    I now have 3 weeks supplies stored, and my goal is to add up to a total 3 months worth eventually.


    On Nov 24 11:32 AM yellowhoard wrote:

    > At the very least, everyone should go to Sams Club or Costco and
    > buy at least 100 pounds of dry beans and rice.
    >
    > If we have a bank holiday, you'll be very glad that you have something
    > to eat for a few months.
    Nov 24 11:36 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 334: May 17 '14: Q1 '1 CC Transcript & MP3 Available; Q1 '14 Filing Released;Axion Receives 4 Powercubes Order; Reverse Split Consent Solicitation Filed; Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC [View instapost]
    The PR value is much larger than the sale of a few thousand batteries. Axion would move from an invisible nonentity to a bright media spotlight very quickly. And the drama of a functioning PbC locomotive pulling large numbers of freight cars around the yards will attract new investors, retail and institutional.

    When one of the toy train manufacturers produces a perfect little replica, perhaps even powered by batteries, with the dramatic paint scheme... I will buy one.
    May 17 04:38 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 333: May 16 '14: Q1 '14 Filing Released;Axion Receives 4 Powercubes Order; Reverse Split Consent Solicitation Filed; Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD [View instapost]
    Guys, papers filed with the SEC are not for talking about initiatives. That's why they have CCs (and PR, which as we all know Axion does not really grok).

    I think we will hear a lot more during the give and take of the CC about the things happening since the end of March, and those items we hope start happening, well, about now.
    May 15 05:45 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
    I have been a frequent user of the "sock drawer" analogy (perhaps even the first user, though I doubt that) for a long time...

    But I haven't viewed Axion as such.

    With me, the sock drawer is where I toss microcap stocks that I purchase with a very long horizon, usually 5 years and more, which are tantalizing but really uncharitable and with unpredictable timelines.

    I view their chances for near term auto OEM applications as "fading", with some opportunity lying out in MY 2016 or 2017. OEM truck applications are about the same, though an APU might slip up on us in late 2015 (MY 2015.5 say), though I doubt it.

    ePower has been extensively discussed, so I won't belabor that one, but they are small and still very much testing and developing their plans. This may be the best hope for a near term (2014-2015) successful application for Axion, even so.

    NSC appears to have fallen prey to the crony capitalism/socialism disease sweeping America's boardrooms, and we should probably cease anxiously watching them, and start to watch what the politicians are doing. My personal opinion is that we have embarked on an overt reboot of the last administration's passion for moonbeam projects (featuring EVs and LI of course) and, as always, political factors will rule the process. Its apparent that this round will feature more and richer spoils for the larger corporate cronies, and the large corporations (including NSC) are elbowing each other to gain a slot at the public trough. Projects like the 999 are hostage to the process, and GE's primacy in the crony constellation circling Washington cannot be dismissed...

    Rosewater appears to be a flatlined effort.

    A renewed emphasis by Axion upon grid applications (which as all regular readers here know, is the longest likely timeline and longest lead time potential market of them all) would logically indicate a reset to another very long waiting period while the company resumes its comfortable old R&D path, cadging for government nickels and academic support.

    So, I complete my comment by having come full circle. Though I entered this investment as a trader (and having traded judiciously, I am still at something close to break-even) of a stock which I anticipated would outperform its peers in the mid-term, I now WOULD place it in the "sock drawer" category, with prospects out about 4 or 5 years with an abundance of question marks.

    Axion should have much more clarity by this time as to corporate goals and plans. It belonged in the sock drawer back in 2009, but its sitting in the middle of the dining room table now, and the family is either going to add it to the menu to toss it to the dogs. I have it in my personal sock drawer, and look toward 2017 or 2018 as a likely event horizon.
    May 14 10:13 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's 'The Accidental Theorist' Proves He's Almost Always Right [View article]
    LOL, so is Keynes.

    Its like elections in Chicago, though...

    Sometimes the dead really do rise up to vote. Best that we do not underestimate the power of exploded ideologies - after all, con men have been using the same shell game to fleece the unwary since the dawn of time.
    Jan 22 11:29 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 335: May 19 '14: Q1 '1 CC Transcript & MP3 Available; Q1 '14 Filing Released;Axion Receives 4 Powercubes Order; Reverse Split Consent Solicitation Filed [View instapost]
    Ok, the casserole has had sufficient time to cool, no longer too hot to touch...

    Time for the fun to begin.
    May 19 08:11 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 333: May 16 '14: Q1 '14 Filing Released;Axion Receives 4 Powercubes Order; Reverse Split Consent Solicitation Filed; Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD [View instapost]
    Best CC they've done in my experience. It was less late, and they went over to compensate...

    Now digesting the gestalt, which has some intriguing angles...
    May 16 11:40 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 319: Mar. 31 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Out at .16 with a modest gain.

    Good luck, all.
    Apr 1 09:40 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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