Seeking Alpha

tripleblack

tripleblack
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View tripleblack's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Recent Stats Indicate U.S. Economic Recovery Was an Illusion [View article]
    Viva la revolucion!
    Feb 25 01:16 PM | 48 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 277: Oct. 19 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    Hmmmm, rule of thumb when reading major manufacturer press releases on topics like this:

    "...you are looking at all your options for your joint cell production in Kamenz, including a sale."

    Translation: We want OUT.

    "... I am very happy that we launched our own cell production with Evonik."

    Translation: We should never have done this.

    "It is a matter of putting cell production on a long-term basis without any time pressure."

    Translation: If we can't sell soon, we will have to shut it down and write the whole thing off.

    "At the same time, economies of scale are very important. That is why we are talking to practically every battery manufacturer, from Korea to Japan all the way to the U.S."

    Translation: Our JV is far too small to ever be viable, and we are desperate enough to take help from anyone, even the Americans.

    "We have plenty of time since the current battery technology for the Smart will be the basis for the next generation."

    Translation: We will accept older designs because we are so desperate to cut a deal.

    "Incidentally, I am very happy that we launched our own cell production with Evonik."

    Translation: I screwed up. I want my Mommy...

    "It has given us more expertise than any other automaker."

    Translation: We KNOW how bad an idea it really was, and promise NEVER to do it again.
    Oct 21 01:53 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 261: August 18: 10Q Filing For Q2; Two Axion Forbes Articles; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    Just for the record, I read over these results every single day (and give HTL a thumbie). The amount of effort HTL is expending is immense.
    Aug 20 09:26 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 92: April 26, 2012: Axion Power Receives Initial Norfolk Southern Order For PbC® Batteries [View instapost]
    If there was doubt that the last share offering (25million shares and change as I recall) was made to "firm hands", it would appear from the day's events that this idea can be discounted.

    This is not an utter surprise, particularly for those of us who have seen a similar result for other stocks using equity financing on a regular basis.

    Extracting something like 20% in quick profit as a sure thing (vs an uncertain future) are sound financial results, particularly in this brave new post-zirp world.

    I won't throw rocks at these "infirm" hands who received this almost brainless largesse due to their large footprint on some list of high networth investors. But I would point out that we longer horizon investors might want to recalibrate our expectations as the company grows from one equjity financing event to the next, and remember that in this upsidedown new investment landscape, good news prompts short attention span whales to sell early and often when they have been presented with a deep discount to attract their attention.

    I suppose we could try to estimate how much these million+ plus share days might decrease the store of available shares for the flippers, but I suspect it will take many more good news days to pump that well full of whale oil dry.
    Apr 26 12:50 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 272: Oct. 4 '13: APMarshall AGM Notes; 10Q Filing For Q2; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    No matter how you look at it, Axion is in what I view as a "vulnerable" condition.

    The definition of what might comprise a "catastrophic event" must be considered relative to the specific situation. What might be a minor problem for a large, healthy company could well derail Axion at this critical juncture.

    Should it become necessary for Axion to pay out the convertible notes in cash +penalties they will have little or no runway left, and must begin seeking a new round of funding.

    At this point the Axion story (short term) is about avoiding any extraordinary event (or even, LOL, an "ordinary" event which costs a lot) on the negative side of the equation, while simultaneously somehow engineering recurring and significant sales (which would BE an extraordinary event, given the history) on the positive side.

    An ironic analogy to the whole PbC battery story.
    Oct 8 10:15 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 271: September 30: '13 AGM Feedback, 10Q Filing For Q2; Two Axion Forbes Articles; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    I see the $.12 holding as a defensive move by some folks already holding a LOT of shares who really don't want to test what happens in the Penalty Box.

    The Gang of .25 is selling to clear the decks for the next influx of millions of shares about to wash over them.

    Meanwhile, all the good Axionistas sit patiently in the battery patch waiting for the arrival of the Great Pumpkin, er, "News". Last promise to expire was the "NSC to roll out 999 in September", oops, didn't happen, but then there is the usual codicil issued at a recent conference, that the Great News about the 999 will be slightly delayed until "October".

    Since the Great Pumpkin, er, "News" ALWAYS shows up in October, this came as no surprise to me of course.

    Linus and I are very patient...

    (Hey dude, its getting cold, how about sharing that blanket of yours?)
    Oct 1 06:31 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner [View article]
    I am now testing various company's emergency rations (foods meant to be compact and have very long shelf lives, planned to provide balanced nutrition in small, lightweight packages). I will report back. I find that the quality level of the food varies wildly, but of course you will be hearing just my own anecdotal taste buds talking!

    I now have 3 weeks supplies stored, and my goal is to add up to a total 3 months worth eventually.


    On Nov 24 11:32 AM yellowhoard wrote:

    > At the very least, everyone should go to Sams Club or Costco and
    > buy at least 100 pounds of dry beans and rice.
    >
    > If we have a bank holiday, you'll be very glad that you have something
    > to eat for a few months.
    Nov 24 11:36 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 235: May 12: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
    I have been a frequent user of the "sock drawer" analogy (perhaps even the first user, though I doubt that) for a long time...

    But I haven't viewed Axion as such.

    With me, the sock drawer is where I toss microcap stocks that I purchase with a very long horizon, usually 5 years and more, which are tantalizing but really uncharitable and with unpredictable timelines.

    I view their chances for near term auto OEM applications as "fading", with some opportunity lying out in MY 2016 or 2017. OEM truck applications are about the same, though an APU might slip up on us in late 2015 (MY 2015.5 say), though I doubt it.

    ePower has been extensively discussed, so I won't belabor that one, but they are small and still very much testing and developing their plans. This may be the best hope for a near term (2014-2015) successful application for Axion, even so.

    NSC appears to have fallen prey to the crony capitalism/socialism disease sweeping America's boardrooms, and we should probably cease anxiously watching them, and start to watch what the politicians are doing. My personal opinion is that we have embarked on an overt reboot of the last administration's passion for moonbeam projects (featuring EVs and LI of course) and, as always, political factors will rule the process. Its apparent that this round will feature more and richer spoils for the larger corporate cronies, and the large corporations (including NSC) are elbowing each other to gain a slot at the public trough. Projects like the 999 are hostage to the process, and GE's primacy in the crony constellation circling Washington cannot be dismissed...

    Rosewater appears to be a flatlined effort.

    A renewed emphasis by Axion upon grid applications (which as all regular readers here know, is the longest likely timeline and longest lead time potential market of them all) would logically indicate a reset to another very long waiting period while the company resumes its comfortable old R&D path, cadging for government nickels and academic support.

    So, I complete my comment by having come full circle. Though I entered this investment as a trader (and having traded judiciously, I am still at something close to break-even) of a stock which I anticipated would outperform its peers in the mid-term, I now WOULD place it in the "sock drawer" category, with prospects out about 4 or 5 years with an abundance of question marks.

    Axion should have much more clarity by this time as to corporate goals and plans. It belonged in the sock drawer back in 2009, but its sitting in the middle of the dining room table now, and the family is either going to add it to the menu to toss it to the dogs. I have it in my personal sock drawer, and look toward 2017 or 2018 as a likely event horizon.
    May 14 10:13 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman's 'The Accidental Theorist' Proves He's Almost Always Right [View article]
    LOL, so is Keynes.

    Its like elections in Chicago, though...

    Sometimes the dead really do rise up to vote. Best that we do not underestimate the power of exploded ideologies - after all, con men have been using the same shell game to fleece the unwary since the dawn of time.
    Jan 22 11:29 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 319: Mar. 31 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Out at .16 with a modest gain.

    Good luck, all.
    Apr 1 09:40 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 277: Oct. 19 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    The only thing holding AXPW together right now is this blog. It probably represents the attention (though with various opinions) of the bulk of Axion's shareholder base outside the transient deluge of Gang of .25 (OK, I'll switch to "PIPErs") dilution. Of course, it appears that the Axionistas are also the sponge absorbing most of that constant dilution.

    TG had better deliver. Otherwise Axion discovers what happens AFTER they lose the support of their much-abused investor base.
    Oct 24 10:35 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 69: Beginning Feb. 21, 2012 [View instapost]
    "Immitation is the most sincere form of flattery."

    OK, I buy that, but...

    I feel the urge to reiterate my earlier comment that pretty soon Axion will need to hire some lawyers to police their patents.

    This is something I personally discovered long abo about intellectual property rights: Protect them or lose them.
    Feb 22 03:45 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenberg Omen Blog - August, 2010 [View instapost]
    Thanks, AR. Those charts are revealing of the manipulation taking place, imo. Astonishing. I wonder what will happen when Congress finally does a full audit of the Fed, come 2011...
    Aug 7 03:44 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite cries that letting the Bush tax cuts die would kill any recovery, few dare utter an uncomfortable reality, according to Gregg Easterbrook: Taxes should rise for everyone, not just for the rich. Americans think they're clobbered by onerous taxes, but U.S. taxes are relatively low compared to the rest of the world, and federal income taxes have fallen dramatically.  [View news story]
    This is a fake argument. It depends upon the premise that Corporations pay "income taxes". Corporations do not - PEOPLE do. Corporations merely collect said taxes (of all kinds) from real people and then forward them to Government, acting as a particularly inept tax collector (their overhead to meet reporting and collection requirements is incredibly high, and THAT gets extracted from the hides of their long-suffering customers as well).

    Americans pay extremely high INDIRECT taxes via our corporations. We also have extensive state, county and local taxes, which are relatively small in tiny countries smaller than many counties who do not subdivide their government functions in this fashion.

    FairTax is the solution to the underlying problem. Period.
    Jul 29 06:37 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As the Dollar Rises and Gold Falls, Should We Get Ready for Fed Rate Hikes? [View article]
    Raising rates from zero to .25 would have an impact on the value of the dollar, but little impact on the dollar carry trade exiting the Fed window.

    NEITHER will have much effect on unemployment, short term.

    The idea of low interest rates BENEFITTING our economy needs to be re-examined. It is (for the time being) obsolete thinking. All that happens is that the banks with access to the free money from the Fed use this in the dollar carry trade, which does nothing for our economy. Its like a grammer school math game, "How many zeros to you have to add together to get "1"?"

    So long as the money just exits the Fed and either enters a zombie bank, zombie insurance company or zombie large corporation, OR the dollar carry trade, its all just mental masterbation so far as jobs or true impact in the real world is concerned.

    Now that they are transforming the Fed into a zombie, and adding more and more state governments to the zombie herd (California is already mooing in the zombie paddock), the plan is accelerating.
    Dec 6 11:23 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
13,092 Comments
36,760 Likes