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Biophile6

Biophile6
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  • AMD: So How Much Does The Interest In Litecoins Matter For AMD? [View article]
    I appreciate the article Justin. You understand litecoin (LTC) better than Mr. Paulos, who has with the thread respondents unfortunately confused a lot of issues. But personally it doesn't matter who's right to me, the important thing is the data, and what actually the two contributions are focused on. I appreciate SA for enabling the dialog, so I'll try to add positively rather than sniping. Having to pick commentary under which thread, I'll pick this one.

    So what is the salient question?

    Q: How much does litecoin mining actually quantitatively contribute to AMD revenues? How much during this quarter?

    Answering this is actually fairly straightforward, and doing so different than saying its weird, or technical, or bringing bitcoin into it, or FPGA or any other peripheral concept that newcomers are going to get baffled by. Its best not to polarize and make it ad hominem. Plus the beauty of attempting to answer this quantitatively is that the numbers are actually public! They're out there. We can know how much compute power is brought online because that is open standard data from the pool operators and the mining community. We know the cards actual "in-hand" performance at the end of the whole process.

    Lets first make a dividing line at Oct28. At that precise time the total litecoin community hashing power from all pools was 30 GH/s. Now, at this time it is 100 GH/s (Dec 11). Almost all of that is from new AMD sales. This rise in LTC value and interest is possibly from its coupling to bitcoin, with a fairly constant currency correlation, and BTCs spike after senate hearings didn't damn the cryptocurrency sector in total. In truth 70 GH/s of AMD compute power came *online*. These are real, purchased functioning units. Not just backordered. Theyre shipped and in operation. Over 95% of that hashing capacity IMHO is AMD product, the remainder likely being contributed by gamers who already have Nvidia cards and use cudaminer to make a buck in offtime. Plus, there are many guides out there to the cards performance stats, and also each pool operator actually knows how many IP addresses it serves. We can know how many cards, miners, where from, and about how many mining workers. What we don't know are margins on each unit shipped since AMD keeps that a bit cheeky.

    The relevant AMD cards compute the blockchain via the scrypt algorithm, hashing at 300-1000 kH/s. Those represent on the low relevant end, the Radeon HD 7850, to cards with over 2k pixel shaders, like 7990 or the new and higher performance R9s. So let's say for argument that the average of all of them is 500kH/s, individually contributed units, added up to get the total. Its difficult to know the product mix sold, but there will be a ton of 280x orders, since that's the preferredd community card, then other orders spill down into the average and lower ROI, where the current price and hash rate has a break-even at about a month of mining operation. They can calculate that--these are clever geeks. Then that's 70*10^9 h/s total over 500*10^3 h/s cards, or 140,000 cards coming online.

    The other article says it would be a "few thousand cards" and makes hyperbole by suggesting a 100k is fantasy, but in reality its probably even bigger than that --much bigger than a few thousand. Possibly 200k units. Thats enough to sell out a lot of resellers. We can even assume that most miners purchased the newer hardware, that there's a time lag in shipping, setup, rig build, and tuning. There's no way that every card out there is getting the full 500kH/s as every miner and every rig struggle to get the conditions right, based on their power supply, ram, system bit depth, and memory bandwidth, much less pool failover settings. One needs to fiddle. Its possible there is another 50GH/s already ordered, shipped, backlogged, waiting in basements, and underperforming.

    If we go even further and take margin per unit research, and suggest $60 per unit going to AMD, we're talking about 8.4 MM net income, or a +5% EPS surprise bump? More? 10MM?

    I'd love to hear someone's estimates of the end impact of these card shipments to AMD, in terms of what it nets. Haven't looked into it, and am not a miner myself, but someone else must know the end result. I respectfully ask for that dialog. But lets get the numbers of cryptocurrency based sales in units estimated correctly first, and then we can see how it hard it hits the bottom line. 140k units are online already from this quarter sales. For comparison the console market may drive 400 MM in revenue based on 4 MM sold and $100 revenue each this quarter, so its larger by far, even by rough estimate. There are 120MM consoles out there to replace. So, true, Litecoin is a small percent of the total. But its completely unexpected, literally out of nowhere, so this is going to make for a significant earnings beat. We are likely talking about 10MM surprise net income to the graphics division? Its likely to persist for the next two quarters as it takes that long for better mining fabrication methods to get taped out and productized, as evidenced by the BTC community.

    Now how much + EPS is the result? Who wants that one? If someone can take the above numbers and get a value, then we're closer to knowing the real answer to: How much LTC mining will impact AMD stock? How much does 140k units contribute?
    Dec 11 08:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IntelGenx: A Compelling Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Yes this is the plan. The current execs have experience with just that. However the pps needs to be higher. See for example the Nasdaq listing guide for criterion and categories. Other reqs involve amount of market value, total shareholders, and cash flow. IGXT has rising revenue, market cap, and shareholders, so this should be projected and expected...but when? At the least the OTC listing is of QX grade, the highest available, and many companies advance to larger exchanges in the same path. It is unusual and usually against their operation rules for investment funds to be able to take part until the stock is over a certain value as well. In due time IMHO IGXT will be on Nasdaq in the US market.
    Jun 28 07:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IntelGenx: A Compelling Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Nice job Alexander. Your evaluation resembles the Aegis 'sum of parts' valuation in both method and result, within margin of error. Someone needs to update however to include the whole pipeline, and NPV, with dates or projection curves.

    Personally impressed at how conservative the company is, wrt cash flow. They have a lot of runway for a small business, compared to other biotech's with higher burn rates. Just hope they are spending wisely and not too frugally.

    Thanks
    Jun 27 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: So How Much Does The Interest In Litecoins Matter For AMD? [View article]
    tduong, yes. I don't assume that its recurring for more than 6 months-- it's possibly a temporary bump it's true. Yet one element that's missing from this discussion is that a GPUs lifetime is significantly shorter when used for crypto currency mining. Way shorter. This is unlike gaming where the particular game, scenario and rendering determines the compute load on the card. No-- these are cards run at their ultimate maximum, at 100% GPU max, 24/7, bearing down on the pixel shaders full tilt at the limit of heating and cooling of the rig build. So they have a lifetime of around 6-8 months as such, and then will either get pitched or dumped onto the used market channel. So, it's actually helping AMD with their product obsolescence. AMD should be happy that there will be a few ideal quarters of of revenue bump +5-10%, and then in early 2015 the overburdened cards fork out so many hardware errors and artifacts that they aren't useful for CoD or Battlefield anymore, and the operator needs to purchase a new Radeon card if they want to use their rig *at all*. MHO. Thanks
    Dec 11 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.'s Upcoming Q2 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 1) [View article]
    Outstanding depth and financial consideration given to the topic. This is a much appreciated effort. Thanks!
    Jul 9 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Large Miners Are Looking Into Small Uranium Explorers In The Athabasca Basin [View article]
    Not to be too nationalistic, but personally I would hope that Denison fight off CITIC, the 'chinese tentacle', for as long as possible whatver the offer might be. The damage done to north american investors through the accounting fraud of its associated Puda Shanxi coal mining (PUDA) has shown they care nothing about us, and only want to rake in investment capital by any means necessary. My own four figure loss from that fraud still stings, and a year after the blowout, no resolution or agreement with the SEC has been reached. Please, no CITIC guys if you are reading. Don't do it.
    May 16 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Small Cap Biotech Stocks to Watch [View article]
    Adam--I too am extremely bullish on CRIS as a molecular biologist. They have several compounds, including GDC-0449 that you mention, and some look even more promising than that one.

    One clarification--the communication that's disrupted is actually inside the cancer cell, not between cells. Effectively the drug is halting 'growth information' from reaching the nucleus of the cancer cell, which says to divide and make more cells. Its like poking the tumor in the eye. The thing cant feel around for the signal to grow. So, no signal to divide, no tumor growth. In fact, it goes way beyond that technically, and hitting this signal transduction pathway with a drug is something no one has ever done before.

    It would be First in that Drug Class as a compound. Therefore, no one really knows how big this market is. No one knows how many organ and tissue types this is effective on. There are currently 15 clinical trials to determine that.

    All are due to report some results in the next two years.

    Cheers

    Chris
    Apr 21 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: So How Much Does The Interest In Litecoins Matter For AMD? [View article]
    A good point Alphi. People will get out the old stuff its true. Looks like those older 5xxx cards could get 50-100 kH/s. Maybe there are some 6770s in the mix. There might be more of the last gen out there, or some others may have just been off while the $/LTC was ~ $2. Maybe legacy units contribute 10% of the total new additional hashing power? Hard to say. Still guessing we are talking about 6 figure units shipped surprise..100-200k, which will reflect in lower inventory when the quarterly report hits, and may persist more than a one off quarter. Perhaps two or more. We're looking at a product line change, quarter to quarter so it can get a bit complicated and there are many cards out there to measure and manage estimates on. Thanks.
    Dec 11 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Biotech Isn't Dead; Following The Money To Undervalued Equities [View article]
    Nice discussion. To add, also consider Hugh Cleland at Northern Rivers Fund/ Blumont Capital, and IntelGenx (IGXT). Cynapsus and LPath also discussed there. See the Life Sciences Report article at:

    http://bit.ly/VG7NwX

    Cheers
    Dec 28 05:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small Market Cap Pharmaceuticals With Large Catalysts Looming In 2013 [View article]
    Hi frog. Suprised you did not mention Intelgenx, igxt. Recently approved for a generic wellbutrin, two other nda slated for H1 2013. No debt, profitable this coming year with launch milestones.
    Dec 1 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Performance Review Of 5 Uranium Producers: 4 Surge To End The Week [View article]
    Only some the above information about Thorium is correct. It is in fact a potential silver bullet for energy. The LFTR Thorium reactor burns down its isotope decay chain 10x better than higher mass uranium based chains do. In fact, the seed Uranium that you need to start with can be waste from other water cooled reactors waste, since they are still 90% burnable by LFTR. There is remarkably less waste in a Thorium liquid fuel reactor. It is smaller and more efficient, the fuel is cheaper, the failsafes require no electricity, and maintenance is less since no high pressure in involved, no water, and no steam blowoff risk.

    Regarding the nuclear supply, yes there are incredible amounts of Thorium oxides already stored away as yellow pellets, which are ready to use. They are Navy legacy from this technology as mothballed at Oak Ridge in the 60s due to DoE fights.

    Further, the crust abundance of Uranium (parts per million) contrasts greatly to Thorium (parts per thousand). It is more abundant and easier to get.

    Regarding the fissile nature, its true that you would not make bombs from Thorium based reactors. This make it uninteresting to certain persons.

    However, none of this is relevant right now since the defense industry refuses to give up Uranium, DoD wont fund the development of the LFTR reactor, the fourth generation nuclear doesnt include much significant Thorium effort, and even if Kirk Sorensen's Thorium project takes off, it will be five-ten years till the first reactor is even built, much less regulation being passed. I wish him well on that.

    Coal, Natural Gas, and Uranium power are not going to let this technology come to fruition easily. Neither is the defense industry.

    Want complete info? For the most accurate, go to the Thorium consortium page at http://bit.ly/ooFpEu
    Jun 8 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Junior Miner Could Generate Enough Cash To Take Itself Private In 3 Years [View article]
    Your analysis is much appreciated.

    Can you say also why the main finance sites are not supporting the PPP numbers yet? Its difficult to determine the real amount of profitability without digging in the SEC records. I suspect PPP is not purchased by some because it is not showing up on fundamentals screens, or because it is below the market cap for larger buyers.

    The main question however, after all this is: What is the correct valuation? While we are obviously undervalued now, I wonder what the best pps target should be. Thanks - Biophile6
    Apr 27 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puda Coal Chairman Ming Zhao: Time To Expropriate The Expropriator [View article]
    AL: I would welcome an opinion and analysis on the news of the CEO's departure.
    Sep 26 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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