"Don't get me wrong - the bull market in .... WILL eventually end and the price WILL collapse back to extremely low levels.... However, that event is likely several years away"
these words are a great example to include into a book about market bubbles
Gold: What's The Worst That Could Happen? [View article]
"Getting mercury to release a proton would make gold." this looks more complicated than to send a robot to the deep ocean, there are plenty of gold there lying on the floor. It is called "deep ocean mining", not yet developed but should be cheaper than arranging particles in the atoms
Gold's Only Worth What Buyers Will Pay [View article]
"More importantly, the value of gold is determined by our psychology." I would say it is determined by the US dollar. A lot of investors analyze demand and supply but it is useless when you have a wave of dollar appreciation in progress. What is going on on the market is a simple "item price relabeling", like it were a retail store after inflation. Dollar up? Gold down. Dollar down? Gold up. It is done mostly by automatic trading systems. Unfortunately when this relabeling is done gold suffers from extra depreciation, but in ideal setup it should keep its real value intact. So, as you could understand gold investors are sort of "currency traders", and you know how leveraged Forex is and how risky it is to trade in it, do you?
"How could you even compare the 2 periods of time like that?" yeah, it is a bad piece. First, the image can't be verified because it lacks price labeling. Second, the subject states one thing, the body says there wasn't real run up, leaving you the same as you were. Another useless reading, imho.
Gold And Silver Plummet As Dollar Rallies On EU Woes [View article]
"What if investors who're in fear running to US dollar are fundamentally wrong?" they aren't. The world is controlled by a few thousand people (i.e "the Gods" ) it is those guys who move the USD. If they decide it is deflation, it is going to be deflation. Your couple of millions in the stock market is a drop in the ocean and there is nothing you can do, either you join them now buying the dollar now, or short the dollar in a few years by buying commodities and stocks. The key is to know what and when are they doing and follow the trend.
Gold Roundup: Support At $1618/Oz. As Chinese Demand Grows And Gartman Flip Flops [View article]
"price continues to fall--isn't that the definition of a bear market?" yes, finally. I am joining gold bears together if interested, be my guest: http://seekingalpha.co...
Hyperinflation: Where is Thy Sting? Case for the Long Bond [View article]
Hey Tim... I also commented on your original piece this: "How about 30y to go to 140 ? and then pullback to 135" which is (almost) exactly what happened. I actually have a chart with long term bond trading patterns, which you can see here: http://seekingalpha.co...
"Selling the dollar against other currencies is a risky proposition" very risky specially by the end of the year, because most wholesalers already bought inventory for Christmas season , they are likely to start making purchases in February. Without help of a real consumption speculators won't be able to move the currency too much. And I am not talking about long term deflationary forces here.
Inflation, Deflation And Precious Metals: The Possible Future For Your Bullion And Mining Shares [View article]
"The share price of Homestake went from $80 in October 1929 to $495 in December 1935" there is a small flaw in all those gold bug's analysis. During the Great Depression 1 gold was directly linked to the dollar. Now it isn't. Now it trades as a commodity: dollar up -> gold down. Simple.
Why Buffett Waited 61 Years To Buy Japan [View article]
I don't think Buffet is going to make any money on Japan. The yen is not a safe currency, it can devalue a lot (http://seekingalpha.co...) while the stock market will be falling and drag any good company out there with it. You can lose 50% on yen devaluation + about 50% in Nikkei's drop, totalling a 75% loss in your investment.
I don't think this moves in bonds have anything to do with QE or any news out there. Long term fundamentals are deflationary, the QE and the price is just a random coincidence. Bond's are in a wide uptrend channel, it must be traversed fully before any trend reversal happens. This is the channel: http://seekingalpha.co...
Gold: The Bull Run Is Not Over [View article]
these words are a great example to include into a book about market bubbles
Gold: What's The Worst That Could Happen? [View article]
this looks more complicated than to send a robot to the deep ocean, there are plenty of gold there lying on the floor. It is called "deep ocean mining", not yet developed but should be cheaper than arranging particles in the atoms
Gold: What's The Worst That Could Happen? [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
but I am currently thinking that it will take a year to reach this target.
Gold's Only Worth What Buyers Will Pay [View article]
I would say it is determined by the US dollar. A lot of investors analyze demand and supply but it is useless when you have a wave of dollar appreciation in progress. What is going on on the market is a simple "item price relabeling", like it were a retail store after inflation. Dollar up? Gold down. Dollar down? Gold up. It is done mostly by automatic trading systems. Unfortunately when this relabeling is done gold suffers from extra depreciation, but in ideal setup it should keep its real value intact.
So, as you could understand gold investors are sort of "currency traders", and you know how leveraged Forex is and how risky it is to trade in it, do you?
Gold Breaks Down, Where To Look For A Bottom [View article]
why 2020 ?
The Gold Bull Market Is Over [View article]
yeah, it is a bad piece. First, the image can't be verified because it lacks price labeling. Second, the subject states one thing, the body says there wasn't real run up, leaving you the same as you were. Another useless reading, imho.
Gold And Silver Plummet As Dollar Rallies On EU Woes [View article]
they aren't.
The world is controlled by a few thousand people (i.e "the Gods" ) it is those guys who move the USD. If they decide it is deflation, it is going to be deflation. Your couple of millions in the stock market is a drop in the ocean and there is nothing you can do, either you join them now buying the dollar now, or short the dollar in a few years by buying commodities and stocks.
The key is to know what and when are they doing and follow the trend.
Gold Roundup: Support At $1618/Oz. As Chinese Demand Grows And Gartman Flip Flops [View article]
yes, finally. I am joining gold bears together if interested, be my guest:
http://seekingalpha.co...
Hyperinflation: Where is Thy Sting? Case for the Long Bond [View article]
I also commented on your original piece this:
"How about 30y to go to 140 ? and then pullback to 135"
which is (almost) exactly what happened.
I actually have a chart with long term bond trading patterns, which you can see here:
http://seekingalpha.co...
The Dollar Is Still Very Weak [View article]
very risky specially by the end of the year, because most wholesalers already bought inventory for Christmas season , they are likely to start making purchases in February. Without help of a real consumption speculators won't be able to move the currency too much.
And I am not talking about long term deflationary forces here.
Inflation, Deflation And Precious Metals: The Possible Future For Your Bullion And Mining Shares [View article]
there is a small flaw in all those gold bug's analysis. During the Great Depression 1 gold was directly linked to the dollar. Now it isn't. Now it trades as a commodity: dollar up -> gold down. Simple.
It's Time To Sell Gold (At Least For Now) [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
About the USD, there is still a possibility, though a difficult one, to close December at 92:
http://seekingalpha.co...
Why Buffett Waited 61 Years To Buy Japan [View article]
Telefonica Offers A Better Value Than AT&T Or Verizon [View article]
The Two Troubles With TLT [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...