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  • Gold vs. Real Assets  [View article]
    how could i forget about this. of course. this is the chart of gold divided by the US Dollar, you can see, it did not make another high in May, in fact, it is in a downtrend since December!:
    Jun 7, 2010. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: I Smell a Correction  [View article]
    silver is within the range. during the week it can bounce all the previous week range without a trend change. get used to this volatility.
    now, what happened:
    silver traders are pricing in advance gold's correction. it was going very well, until friday, when gold made a trend reversal on the daily, but silver didn't react to it. silver should had to close 17.80 on friday to match gold's rally. On sunday gold was flat. Silver didn't react. This the reason of such fast move, is that it had big divergence with gold. Also add to this the big amount of automated trading systems that buy faster than you can click.
    I don't see anything bullish on silver yet, it has to close above 18.66 this week to change my mind. And gold is not likely to make it above 1250, it is more likely to be a final test of resistance before the downtrend, but if it does i will be truly amazed.
    Jun 7, 2010. 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready for a Double Dip  [View article]
    Jun 7, 2010. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Prices Have Not Collapsed  [View article]
    yeah. also, how can you , for example, on crude, have 78% drop in 6 months, and then pretend nothing happen? the problem i think is (and i am not speaking about the author, i am speaking about what i have seen with other analysts) that a lot of folks ("professionals") advised investors to buy into hard assets under the premise "commodities will never go to 0, you can't print them" and they got into without a stoploss. Now a lot of them are sitting on their portoflios down 50% or even more. The advisor will not tell the investor "hey, you know what, damn, i missed it badly (understandable, happens to everyone specially with this crisis) and you are gonna have to hold on to your stuff who knows how much more and you may even lose it all" , so they will invent any technical indicator out there that is left to support inflationary view. Thats why we are seeing oil recovering veeeeeery slowly, it took 15 months to advance 50 bucks of upside, and last month "baboom!" , a drop of 15 bucks. How can this be a bull market? And i am not speaking of technicals here. It's laughable.
    In the mean time, the average population is defaulting on their debts lose their jobs, consumption slowly decrease. These investors being a minority are now holding against massive wave of deflation worldwide. So you are going to have commodities trading ranges randomly and it can extend for a few years more, but at the end they will just crash badly.
    Jun 7, 2010. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready for a Double Dip  [View article]
    it is so wonderful we will have double dip recession! please, can i have cherry on bottom?
    Jun 7, 2010. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Crowd Sentiment Will Limit Any Further Downside  [View article]
    fundamentals don't matter right now. if even Obama speaks about double dip recession who doesn't expect the markets will crash ? very few. bears are crowd, agree, but that doesn't mean we will go higher, we can of course, but it is very unlikely. check the real value of the DOW , it is a double top, and its nasty looking:
    i am expecting another big crash like 2008, but not this year. we still have to get rid of weak bears in a trading range and to suck in more innocent bulls thinking that if markets holded so much time the crisis is over, here i have some counts:
    Jun 7, 2010. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold vs. Real Assets  [View article]
    "So that's my case against gold and in favor of real assets"
    concur on short term because gold is very expensive right now. and on long term because as population grows there is less and less land available. there is no free land now on Earth. However free gold lies on the bottom of the ocean in huge amounts and once we develop deep sea mining technology we will pick it at low cost.
    Jun 7, 2010. 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Will May's Panic Continue Into June?  [View article]
    "By the end of the summer, the fall will likely decelerate"
    we concur on this one, check out my count:
    "But the overall downward trend will continue and extend into 2011"
    that's what i am trying to guess yet. it might, but there are still a lot of bears. then need to get tired before we go lower.
    Jun 7, 2010. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: A Positioning Play  [View article]
    you bought it at the beginning of the global recovery wave. now this wave stalled. instead of celebrating my past calls while the stock price is falling i would take profits. If you check the chart of GOOG divided by US dollar index you will see a very clear trading ranges and it may help you to establish buy/sell points.
    right now it shows that if the price drops below 450 it will test 280 again.
    We are in a period of pricing global crisis into stock market, it doesn't has to do anything with the company, Google or Coca Cola they are all trading the same fundamentals, deflationary ones. i am thinking GOOG can go as low as to 150.
    Jun 7, 2010. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First of the Month Indicator Gives Bear Market Signal  [View article]
    "I forecast a repeat of the late 70's to 1980's"
    have you tried to time it? what if it will start in 20 years from now.
    Jun 7, 2010. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices Have a Long Way to Go Before Reaching Bubble Territory  [View article]
    "save heaven" does not exist on Earth. It is in your mind only.
    Jun 6, 2010. 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks fell from the beginning and kept sliding all day, thanks to... Hungary? It's a small country that will have little actual impact on the U.S., but the early headlines added a new layer of uncertainty about European debt problems. Then when jobs failed to hit their whisper number, the die was cast for the day. As concerns intensified again, investors turned away from equities and risky assets and back toward safe-haven shelters.   [View news story]
    this has nothing to do with Hungary, we are working on technicals to close the candles as they should be closed in a downtrend.
    Jun 6, 2010. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First of the Month Indicator Gives Bear Market Signal  [View article]
    lets see how it handles 9000 first
    Jun 6, 2010. 03:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sentiment Overview: A Rebound in Bullishness  [View article]
    this market still has to go lower, at least 800 points on the DOW. the question is, at which point do we re-short it and when.
    Jun 6, 2010. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices Have a Long Way to Go Before Reaching Bubble Territory  [View article]
    "A nice nasty 50% plunge to $600"
    the 'plunge' has more weight on the long term, but friday's up close doesn't makes it easy to forecast next week. we are either about to attempt a new high or go to test 1060 once again. Tuesday is the 'decision day' on my calendar.
    Jun 6, 2010. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment