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FOREX & FUTURES day & swing trader.
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  • Nasdaq's Final Top

    Without more words, this is the projection for the Nasdaq 100 index

    (click to enlarge)Nasdaq100 projection

    The bottom of the move is calculated as 1442, as a bounce from the middle line of a parallel channel. The channel's width is built from 2007-2008 crash, and the copy of the channel to the right only contains its middle line.

    Disclosure: I am short QQQ.

    Nov 02 2:10 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • USD: A 3,000 Pip Move (Minimum) Is Here

    I has been 2 years since USD has stuck in a trading range without any signal at all making it impossible to do some long term trading. But 5 weeks ago I finally sensed a big trend is about to start. However I couldn't call it completely until current week has closed, because there was no clear pattern on the chart, but now it is. So lets see the big picture first. The yearly chart of USD:

    USD yearly chart 2013

    What we can see here, is completely random trading over the last 4 years. and the 5th year being the bullish engulfing candle. So , from here the market could go both ways, the bearish way would look something like this:

    (click to enlarge)USD 2013 yearly close projection, bearish

    I am projecting a close to 75 on the index by the year end, because it is a major pivot point in a range 50-100. Also, note the triangle here, drawn on the open/close prices, it is pretty clear market is going to do a breakout and start a long term trend from here.

    And the bullish case:

    (click to enlarge)USD 2013 yearly close projection, bullishHere I am projecting the year close at around 88 because it is a target aligned with the 2008,2009 and 2010 highs.

    Now lets take a close look to EUR/USD pair

    (click to enlarge)EURUSD monthly projection

    Note that in October, market tried to break a considerable resistance line that has been first marked in 2003, but disrespected later. Well, now this resistance is firmly established. Market tested it twice recently and the last time we had a very clear failure to break it out. Note also, that this attempt happened a the mid-point of the sub channel, which is also a good reversal sign. The channel alignment is also pretty strong it is aligned with trading over 20 years, so these lines have a considerable meaning. And this is why my target for the move is around 1.05 on EUR/USD. Because from that level we could have a considerable bounce.

    Now, lets remember my unusual head and shoulders pattern on the euro, which is a "Rotated Head & Shoulder" , my invention, patent pending.

    (click to enlarge)Rotated Head and Shoulders EUR/USD

    If you see the monthly EUR/USD chart along last 5 years you won't match it to any known pattern, it makes the trader clueless about where the market should go. But if you rotate it, about 30 degrees, you will clearly see the massive head and shoulders top. This is why we can have easily a huge move right to the 0.84 level on EUR/USD during the next 16 months, ending this move in about May of 2015, with a subsequent 2 years of retracement, before advancing further. (the right shoulder) Of course, the neckline may be incorrect, and we could have a bounce from 1.05 to 1.18 but given that we had stuck 4 years in trading range at the bottom on the USD, a 16 months move is more likely than just the minimum 3,000 pip move to 1.05

    Good luck and I wish you make many pips on this move

    Disclosure: I am long UUP.

    Tags: UUP
    Nov 02 11:17 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Gold For Bears: Yearly Reversal Is Here

    I have been waiting for gold to start a good bear trend for a long time, and now it is an excellent time for it to reverse.

    I want you to look at this yearly gold candles.

    (click to enlarge)

    Gold yearly candles

    2010 was up in full candle form. 2011 is a shutting start candle. And 2012 looks like failed continuation move upwards. Given the setup on the USD index we have good chances that this year the selloff in gold accelerates to close the year down, like pictured. Important yearly level is 1450, it is the opening of 2011 and close of 2010, so, closing bellow it will be a nasty yearly top, with 2013 being a full candle down.

    Now let's see a possible channeling on the monthly chart

    (click to enlarge)gold monthly channels

    This is the best channeling I can find at this time. The symmetry is in a triple channel form. A double channel hit is a strong pattern which usually drives the price to the other channel boundary, but the problem is we don't have very clear boundaries here, except for the first and the 4th lines (or maybe the 2nd too) , so this makes me think there is no good support levels until 650 or 700. I am targeting, however, a retracement from 1180 to 1340 because 1180 seems to be the strongest resistance/support level traded above 1040, it is the only level that was hit twice in a 8 month timeframe. It is also in the middle of the 3rd channel line, which could happen to be weak line. I think we can expect strong support to come at 700/650 levels, and this my 'positive' outlook for gold.

    The worst outlook is to hit 430 level, repeating the same thing happened to oil. This is how it would look like

    (click to enlarge)gold to 430

    If this year we close below 1450, 2013 should be a full (yearly) candle down, and the only support gold hasn't tested well through its trading history is 500. So , we can expect to temporarily break 500, to reach 430, and then close the year at 520 or slightly above 500.

    Monthly candlesticks are also bearish, we have dark cloud cover in Octo ber at the top of the range passing at 1780.

    Tags: GLD
    Nov 04 2:57 PM | Link | 3 Comments
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    Nov 15, 2015
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    Apr 15, 2013
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