Seeking Alpha

McGonicle's  Instablog

McGonicle
Send Message
View McGonicle's Instablogs on:
  • Excuses

    Thank you. This falls into the category of

    "rebalancing"
    "window dressing"
    "tax selling" (90% of stocks are held accounts that are not taxed by their holders, like IRA and massive fund accounts but only upon realization/redemption)
    "margin pressure"
    "value trap"
    "they beat/fell on (whatever could possibly explain the fall/rise)"

    all of these are 13th hour explanations for something, and they are all ridiculous. Stocks fall because players dump. Sometimes, they dump just to create price (444-438) but that's pretty risky. They fall because shorts increase the float. They fall because the number of buyers in comparison to the number of sellers is dropping. This has been evident in the last week--AAPL didnt even reach resistance 463, its been really weak, pretending to follow the indexs but then facing a bit more selling.

    That's a lack of buyers, because people are waiting for two things
    1) catalysts
    2) a pullback in the SnP which may not happen
    3) a shift in the story

    But as far as the rest goes, it is just a story. SAMS has a fine phone and after killing its competition for years, AAPL now faces (SHOCK! GASP!) competition. And (SHOCK! GASP!) higher costs after years of profiting off of RnD sunk long ago....OMG.

    Really? Its a competitive marketplace.

    That's just a story. 1/1/12 vs 1/1/13 AAPL is in a stronger market position because it has full adoption (all carriers now have) and it held any real competition at bay for 2 years after basically destroying palm, rimm, nokia and motorola (and gutpunching garmin, sony, msft, dell, hpq, lxk, comcast, twc, by offering an alternative to their models etc).

    That's a pretty good position to be in. If you don't see that, then buy RIMM.

    People are loving the name change and the product.

    Feb 08 9:32 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Inflation 1969-2013

    observed a noticeable jump in restaurant and grocery store prices here twice; once when fuel peaked in 2008, and again early last year after QE2, especially for water/fuel intensive items (lettuce).

    I also coincidentally found pages of the Kansas City Times from 1970 and 1981 blowing in the wind in the park--no joke. Some quick math discovered that laying over prices across that time period (and in the same city) that inflation has been very, very low and very stable for a long, long time. Commodity items, such as tobacco, liquor and coffee (not including sin taxes obviously) were much MORE expensive compared to regular food, and meat, canned goods etc have been very price stable, or are a bit less expensive today. I was a grocery store cashier in the mid and late 1990s, and that was when prices were abnormally below the curve, if at all (coinciding with very low fuel prices).

    Though i have railed against the concept that inflation is currently very low on SA, and tried my best to deny it and argue against it, my thumbnail research did indicate that this rate worked out to 2% per annum more or less from 1970 to 2013 in Kansas city...

    Also just to note that there were almost no electronic items advertised, much more clothing, and cars that seemed very undesirable from a modern consumers point of view, but for a fair price...

    Americans have no idea how inflation would affect their lives. The USD is absolutely massive (everything on the planet is denominated in it) and it takes a huge amount of inertia to over come that (3-5TT USD input so far and zero effect).

    Once it starts to move, it will be unstoppable.

    This is of course because the money is flowing straight into the stock market, and not on comparatively low profit and volatility items like food and land...when it flows back out...none of us know...

    Feb 08 9:17 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Bubble Play

    A bubble market will abuse you as a bear-theorist endlessly. This bubble will likely not resolve in any desirable time frame (36 months).

    This stock could easily double again (see DECK, GMCR, CMG, PCLN, AMZN...)

    Bearish options against a fedflationary market are worthless. You cannot call the time frame of when the TLT will collapse because it is intentionally being held out of reach by the Fed. You are forced to call time frames or topping price levels that can easily be blown away (see ACAT, CRUS, STX).

    Besides an overall downward market, what possible catalysts-to-reality will dump a stock like LNKD? Nothing. If it got to $150 on nothing, then no rational catalyst can bring it down. The only catalyst that kills these stocks is massive post-speculative selling (see NFLX, CMG sorta) that develops at an unpredictable time, and an overall market crash, which isnt going to happen soon.

    Bearish calls on the bubble are therefore extremely ill advised. An "eventually it will implode" thesis is not going to be sufficient as you do not have an unlimited amount of time or margin to wait for this eventuality.

    Now that there are no negative catalysts for the overall market, this 1505 level is when it becomes extremely dangerous. The risk of a crash is very high, but every dip is bought, so you wont be able to tell when it is forming up. Shorting on down moves or days doesn't work because the stocks bounce right back.

    Ironically, more money is moving into the market now, when it is dramatically overpriced, than was coming in at SnP 1000 because that point the extent of the juice was still unclear.

    Now, the juice is likely perpetual; no series of events or developments will cause easing to end in the near term.

    Therefore, by fighting a bubble stock you are fighting the fed.

    Feb 08 1:56 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.