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Bear Bait

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  • Jim Miekka has never worked on Wall Street and doesn't hold any financial degrees, but he has developed a cult-like following for his Hindenburg Omen. The DJIA has dropped 2.5% since the market indicator was triggered the first of three times on Aug. 12, but its long-term track record shows many more misses than hits.  [View news story]
    Here's a quote from a story written by Aaron Task in Investing. "...The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987....". I guess the accuracy rate just depends on who is telling the story. The indicator has been triggered 3 times already. Maybe it's 4 times is a charm. I've got a Kennedy half in my pocket that has a 50% accuracy rate! I'm not saying it won't happen. I just question the indicator especially if Aaron Task is correct on its accuracy.
    Aug 26 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index: +2.2% to 81.4, resuming M/M gains. Auto output rebounded, +7.2%, and steel output was up 2.2%.  [View news story]
    KC is down and has 5 comments....Chicago is up and has 0 comments. Interesting.
    Aug 26 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest bearish indicator: millionaires turning pessimistic. Spectrem Group’s Millionaire Investor Confidence Index, which measures the economic outlook and investment sentiment of households with at least $1M in investable assets, fell 11 points for its biggest decline in more than a year.  [View news story]
    I'm not going to rush off and sell the farm because millionaires are turning pessimistic! Where do they drag up this crap? It's not a Bull or Bear thing either. It would have been just as meaningless to me if it had said millionaires are turning optimistic. Try this on for size. I'm going to wear my rain coat because millionaires are beginning to feel like it might rain. As far as I'm concerned it is just as reliable.
    Aug 25 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street's job market may be starting to sour - and since it's often ahead of the firing curve, it could mean more certainty of a double-dip recession, and bad news for Main Street jobs.  [View news story]
    I for one am tired of all these nickle dime indicators whether they are bullish or bearish.
    Aug 24 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An extract of the kudzu vine being developed to treat alcoholism may also help end cocaine addiction, say researchers at Gilead Sciences (GILD +1%), potentially providing the first effective treatment for the addiction.  [View news story]
    I had read about Kudzu; but, I hadn't ever seen it until this summer. They say you can almost see it grow. But, I don't think that's at the speeds on the interstates. I do hope they can harvest it for this purpose.
    Aug 23 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Keynes is killing the patient, Michael Pento writes. Most Americans know intuitively that reducing their debt burden is in their best interests, but "a few hundred individuals in government believe they know better than the collective wisdom of the entire free market... they are forbidding us from following the common sense path to fiscal health."  [View news story]
    The only way out is to spend, spend , spend. Spending creates demand which creates jobs which creates more spending. Simplistic this is true. Remember the CCC during the Depression. Govt spending to create jobs to create more spending. Machi is right. The only entity left to spend is the Fed Govt. The question here is which comes first spending or jobs. I say spending. An interesting side light; It was said the the private sector is adding jobs. It is layoffs at state and local Govts that is fueling the encrease in unemployment.
    Aug 20 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lots of critical stocks touching 52-week lows today, as double-dip fears escalate and risk is pulled off the table. Banks bearing much of the brunt - WFC +0.2%, BAC -1.3%, BBT -1.4% - but pain is spread across sectors: BBY -1.3%, CME -0.9%, CSC -0.6%, GPS -3.2%, HPQ -2.6%, MHS -0.8%, MDT -2.8%, MWW -1.9%, RTN -1.1%.  [View news story]
    Could we get a little bounce towards the end of the day from people afraid to carry shorts into the weekend?
    Aug 20 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A sharp rise in the use of shipping containers is a bullish sign for the global economy, and has already pushed the industry past the record usage level set in 2008.  [View news story]
    or the upper 2% .
    Aug 19 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +12K to 500K vs. 480K consensus, climbing to the highest level in nine months. Continuing claims -13K to 4,478,000.  [View news story]
    Premarket Spy has kinda shrugged off the employment numbers and has bounced back to approximately yesterday's close. But, at nine thirty when the buzzer sounds and the real game begins, we'll see if the bounce continues.
    Aug 19 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A provision in the new financial reform law is switching oversight of around 4,000 hedge funds to individual states instead of the SEC. The move will likely overwhelm the oversight capabilities of many states which are already short on budget and manpower.  [View news story]
    I'm wondering what other little goodies are in the financial reform bill? Another good reason to vote the Bums out of office. I'm not talking about voting one party or the other out. I'm talking about voting both or them out and starting fresh.
    Aug 19 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere (DE): FQ3 EPS of $1.44 beats by $0.22. Revenue of $6.22B (+17.8%) vs. $6.50B. (PR)  [View news story]
    I'm in agreement for the most part. But, the Govt doesn't make the decision on where those subsidies are spent just as the Govt doesn't make the decision on where corporate or personal tax breaks are spent. With or without subsidies, if it's a bad year the farmer isn't going to make money. If it's a bad year, he pulls maintainance on the old tractor instead of spending a couple hundred thousand on a new one. Govt subsidies only make good years better and bad years not quite as bad.

    Sorry B'dog, I just don't think you know what you're talking bout!
    Aug 18 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere (DE): FQ3 EPS of $1.44 beats by $0.22. Revenue of $6.22B (+17.8%) vs. $6.50B. (PR)  [View news story]
    My son is deep into AG. Which means that; that and a 5 dollar bill might get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. But, most times farmers like other businesses wait until after the big selling season (fall harvest) to make tax related "big" purchases. I'm very much aware of futures. But what do you do if you have contracted to sell X bushels of corn and you have a bad harvest and you only have X-Y bushels to sell.
    Aug 18 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Picks: Sure, Wal-Mart (WMT) is "an obvious choice in an uncertain economy rife with price-sensitive consumers," but its stock could stagnate or drift lower as the retailer faces competition from the likes of TGT, AMZN, grocers, dollar-stores, etc. with little room left to keep cutting prices. (WMT's Q2 earnings)  [View news story]
    WMT has already said it will be raising prices with the discontinuance of the "Rollback". Some items I buy at WMT will undoubtedly be bought somewhere else. One of my concerns is that our local Walmart frequently has empty spaces on it's shelves. Is this bad local planning or something else?
    Aug 18 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere (DE): FQ3 EPS of $1.44 beats by $0.22. Revenue of $6.22B (+17.8%) vs. $6.50B. (PR)  [View news story]
    I think you guys are making this to simple. The spike in wheat came to late to have an impact on this qtr. Besides, most US wheat had been harvested and sold by the Russian export ban. Why are shares down so hard premarket? A mistake in revenue (Ohrama) or is expected fall crop production down. Whatever it is, it took premarket Cat down with it.
    Aug 18 07:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota (TM) is analyzing the design and placement of its accelerator and brake pedals to see whether the current setup makes drivers more prone to hit the wrong one. The move comes after government studies appear to show most Toyotas involved in crashes were caused by the driver hitting the gas instead of the brake.  [View news story]
    based on your answer I'll take issue the "scholar" part of your name.
    Aug 17 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment