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Bear Bait

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  • Apple (AAPL), unsurprisingly, has the largest overseas cash balance of any tech company: Moody's believes it rose 15% in the March quarter to $74B. Joining Apple in the top 5 are Microsoft (MSFT - $50B), Cisco (CSCO - $42.3B), Oracle (ORCL - $25.1B), and Qualcomm (QCOM - $16.5B). Altogether, tech companies account for roughly half of an estimated $457B in overseas cash held by U.S. firms. Efforts to obtain a "tax holiday" on the repatriation of overseas cash have stalled.  [View news story]
    Many of these companies have massive cash balances here in the US and are not investing that cash in jobs. So, why would we think they would do anything but just add the tax free offshore cash hoards to the onshore cash hoards? My thoughts are; for every dollar spent investing in jobs in the US they can bring one maybe even two bucks in from overseas tax free.
    Jul 10 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The reason for the worsening jobs picture, writes Floyd Norris in the NYT, is because everybody looks at seasonally adjusted figures. "But those adjustments most likely overstate reality." Pre-adjustment, the private sector added 800K jobs/month in the last 3 months, while in June, the number of jobs rose by 1.8M Y/Y. Expect a poor July and August, a pick-up in September and an impressive October.  [View news story]
    Just another theory. Should it play out, it could make things interesting!
    Jul 8 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Affordable Care Act actually discourages small businesses from growing, says TheStreet.com's Robert Weinstein. Buried within 2,700 pages of the Act is a requirement that businesses provide all employees with "acceptable" health insurance coverage, but exempts businesses with 49 or fewer full time employees. For small business owners, this is a glaring disincentive not to grow beyond 49 employees as a result of the costs and additional regulations companies face with 50 or more.  [View news story]
    "....having the best healthcare system in the world." What country do live in? It's not the US if its the best h'care system min the world!
    Jul 7 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Affordable Care Act actually discourages small businesses from growing, says TheStreet.com's Robert Weinstein. Buried within 2,700 pages of the Act is a requirement that businesses provide all employees with "acceptable" health insurance coverage, but exempts businesses with 49 or fewer full time employees. For small business owners, this is a glaring disincentive not to grow beyond 49 employees as a result of the costs and additional regulations companies face with 50 or more.  [View news story]
    The car insurance comparison does not fly. You are only required to carry insurance that protects other peoples property. I guess it could be turned around and said that you are required to carry insurance that protects other people from having to pay your medical bills if you need medical care and not have insurance.
    Jul 7 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude oil prices resume losses after a brief spike on headlines that Iranian lawmakers are drafting a bill to propose blocking the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. WTI -2.1% to $83.16. Worth noting: There was no spike in volume to match Friday's price surge - blow-out moves typically are associated with a volume spike - and there was no shift in the time structure.  [View news story]
    I wonder who started that rumor? The Bears trying to start a little panic selling.
    Jul 2 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Germans are making "a tragic, historical mistake," says George Soros of the country's refusal to offer something like a Marshall Plan to its troubled neighbors. In an outstanding interview, Soros stands much of the conventional wisdom regarding the crisis on its head. "(Merkel) is trapped (realizing) the euro is not working, but she cannot change the narrative she has created."  [View news story]
    I agree with Tack. To use and old and I know very trite saying , Germany wants their cake and eat it too!
    Jun 26 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Germans are making "a tragic, historical mistake," says George Soros of the country's refusal to offer something like a Marshall Plan to its troubled neighbors. In an outstanding interview, Soros stands much of the conventional wisdom regarding the crisis on its head. "(Merkel) is trapped (realizing) the euro is not working, but she cannot change the narrative she has created."  [View news story]
    You asked the wrong man that question big boy.... I was laid off for 3 years in the late 80s. I was so poor I couldn't even afford a can of soda, which was about 30 cents back then. And what did I do. I reduced my spending and then my wife and I did everything we could to increase our income. I worked at every job I could find. I even ran the Ferris wheel at the local fair quite a step down for a college grad. And don't try to pin a liberal Democrat tag on me either. I have voted for every Republican President since Richard Nixon. The radical ultra conservatives that are running the party today are wrong. The best way to restore this country is to cut spending and increase revenues and not just to cut spending. Just spending cuts will no more work for this country than it would have worked for me!
    Jun 26 07:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Germans are making "a tragic, historical mistake," says George Soros of the country's refusal to offer something like a Marshall Plan to its troubled neighbors. In an outstanding interview, Soros stands much of the conventional wisdom regarding the crisis on its head. "(Merkel) is trapped (realizing) the euro is not working, but she cannot change the narrative she has created."  [View news story]
    Keep a close eye on Europe and it's forced austerity to see what will happen in the US with all austerity and no stimulus. It don't work! It's like not feeding the Goose that lays the golden eggs in order to reduces costs.
    Jun 26 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New drilling techniques will turn the U.S. into the world’s second-largest oil producer, according to a new report by former Eni exec Leonardo Maugeri. “The shale/tight oil boom [in the U.S.] is not a temporary bubble, but the most important revolution in the oil sector in decades,” though it won’t insulate the U.S. from global price swings in the oil market or Middle East problems.  [View news story]
    Isn't that what all conservatives, Republicans and T'baggers are clamoring for; more drilling to reduce the price of oil. All this more oil crap is just that crap. If the price in the US for US oil drops below the price for shipping overseas that oil is headed overseas in a heartbeat. The phrase "reduce the price of gas in the US" is just the bait used to get votes and get approval on risky ventures. Talk is cheap!
    Jun 26 10:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's get a move on! A chart of crude vs. wholesale gasoline vs. retail gasoline shows prices at the pump lagging the big decline in crude and wholesale prices. (via Tim Backshall)  [View news story]
    Surprise, surprise. Retailers raise the price immediately irregardless of how many gallon they have in storage at the lesser price and then drop the price only after the higher price inventory is gone. Good business I guess.
    Jun 21 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The contraction in European economic activity in a picture - U.S. exports to Europe dove $4B in April, the biggest drop dating back to at least January 2005, notes Stone McCarthy. Exports to the continent are down 2.7% Y/Y, the first annual decline since February 2010, and not boding well for the U.S. economy.  [View news story]
    The European economy is a preview of the US economy after Republican imposed austerity measures. As Soros said; you can not save your way out of this.
    Jun 21 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) news roundup: 1) iCloud suffers an outage that affects iMessage and some other services. 2) "Leaked" images for the next iPhone's case suggest the device will have a 4" screen and be just 7.6mm thick, in-line with earlier rumors. 3) Barclays' Ben Reitzes argues Microsoft Surface is a bigger threat to Android tablets than to the iPad. 4) Foxconn chairman Terry Gou claims the next iPhone "will put Samsung's Galaxy S III to shame."  [View news story]
    I'm interested in seeing what the reduction in carrier phone subsidies and increasing the time span for renewals will have on the iPhone.
    Jun 20 05:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "We will likely still know very little (Monday morning)," presciently said UBS' Martin Lueck of Greece last Friday. The elections have just returned the country to an "unsustainable status quo," writes Meg Greene. The true battle will be fought in Spain, and Madrid leads Europe into the red this morning, -1.5% with its 10-year bond yield soaring 26 bps to 7.14%.  [View news story]
    Greece seems to be on track, so big money moves to shorting Spain. If the EU comes up with a good plan to save Spain, big money will move back into speculating on Oil or big money way work on Italy first them oil.
    Jun 18 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From coordinated central bank intervention to a conference call amongst finance ministers? The rumor looks to have been downgraded as Reuters reports EU finance ministers plan to hold a conference call on Sunday evening to discuss the Greek election outcome.  [View news story]
    hope you got an exit plan. The profit on those shorts is diminishing with every passing minute.
    Jun 14 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central banks are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity if needed following this weekend's Greek elections, according to G-20 sources. Markets are flying.  [View news story]
    Are you guys watching the ticker? Dow and S&P are both going back up. Is it just a bounce of the real thing?
    Jun 14 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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