Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Miners are outperforming right now. These kinds of tests help to establish a floor, which supports the miners. Metals do this all the time. It's just the name of the game. Is there a secular bull in gold? Obviously. Copper? Less certain, but Chinese growth is analogous to US growth a century ago. It will be lumpy and volatile, but strong long-term. 7 billion people in the world - try to stop them from getting their hands on copper!
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
I like GLD just fine. Bought HZU (Toronto) today. I like the long silver trade. I don't know if this is the bottom, but it's close enough for me to start buying in. The only (surviving) "bubble" over the past decade is in government debt.
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Hi Netblue:
Right now we are seeing competitive devaluation in all the major currencies. It supports exports and - primarily - makes debts payable. I have no position on "hyperinflation." Who knows. I don't think there is a politician tough enough to stop currency devaluation for long - it creates too many desirable illusions. The real problems with devaluation are (1) imposed redistribution of wealth creates social instability; and (2) malinvestment puts cash in the wrong places and takes it away from the right places. For example, inflation fuelled growth has mispriced oil, and funded terrorism over the past decade or longer. There are many complex systemic problems. Bottom line, saving creates wealth, not borrowing, as per the "Squanderville" parable. Is this a big or small problem? BIG for sure. I don't really care whether gold trades at $1500 or $1900 today. I'm reading the bigger trends. Every sector BUT gold just plain scares me.
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Eric,
I think your analysis is smart - you have covered the bases. My critique is that you are using a rear-view mirror. We are not replaying 2008-09 in gold, though we could do in stocks (the bad news is pointing to recession).
Operation Twist is not inflationary, in that it does not expand the money supply. However, it moves money into the MBS market, and will presumably stimulate the mortgage refi trade. That of course does free up a modest amount of spending money, which will work its way into the consumer markets (at the expense of the banks, who will be collecting lower levels of interest on the refis.
However, look at the fundamentals, Eric. Is the collapse of the monetary system as we know it not gold bullish?
Of course, anything can happen short-term, and I understand why pinched investors sell their winners. But then you've gotta think, in a recession, where are your next winners going to come from? Then I'm with most of the crowd that has amassed here.
If I were to start picking my expected winners for 2012, I'd have to nix general equities, the banking sector, the USD, etc. What is left? Real interest rates will stay low in a recession. And when and where does gold thrive? Right in that sweet spot.
What then is the argument for gold stocks? Try running the CDNX ratio chart over GOLD. We have already hit the bottom in the small cap miners in gold terms. That implies that the way from here is up. Add to that the new mutual fund buying in the large miners. And where are they going to go in a recession?
Who is it that has been saying gold stocks will be the next utilities - Jim Sinclair? Yes:
I think he has got it. With the big miners now paying dividends, and doing fine in terms of revenue and profit growth, and with the Yen, Euro and USD in their death throes... Hey Goldcorp, Yamana and Newmont are now utility stocks!
Last but not least, what technical guy is not going to look for those gaps to be filled in the above charts? October is weak seasonally for gold. A few weeks' of underperformance and base building is reasonable to expect.
But the technical analysis has to be informed by fundamentals. My fundamental analysis tells me that currency collapses and bank failures are gold bullish - to a very high degree!
I will never forget that Cramer is the guy who convinced me to sell during the tech bubble. In my view, he is the great democratizer of the investment market. Now, should the investment markets be democratized? Hmmm. Almost certainly not. Equity investing is a dangerous and treacherous business, hardly for mom and pop. What should they be buying? Well, I'd say gold might be a wise choice for ordinary folks, just as it is in most of Asia. That is, the Asians understand gold. We don't. In brief, Cramer is not always wrong, and in this case, Booyah, Jim!
Hey GreenRiver, you've got it more or less right, and what you are describing is probably going to happen, perhaps within the present decade. As it was, so shall it be again. Will it be a bubble at that point? We'll have to watch the other indicators. If hyperinflation is raging, I wouldn't sell at $13,000.
Thank you, Mr. Berman. That was well-said with an economy of words.
My reading - gold is only starting to get lively here, and there is quite a ways to go.
We spent years waiting for $400 gold. The milestones are tripping by much faster now. Back then, Richard Russell said we would remember $400 gold as "dirt cheap." He was and is a wise man.
It seems the only policy idea out there is to destroy every major currency on the planet. Fortunately, gold has no central bank, so is pretty well insulated from that particular dynamic.
As to slickvguy, I have to commend you for your courage, to speak from conviction on this issue. However, I think that you may be underestimating this particular bull. What evidence would it take to change your mind on this one? Because, whatever that is, I think you will eventually see it!
So long as real interest rates are negative, gold will rise. That's about it.
China Gold Imports Surging [View article]
http://bit.ly/JhFQWt
China Gold Imports Surging [View article]
A 2008 link, I'm sure more up to date info is available....
http://bit.ly/HTuWdf
Is The Coup In Mali Creating A Contrarian Buying Opportunity For Gold Stocks? [View article]
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
Right now we are seeing competitive devaluation in all the major currencies. It supports exports and - primarily - makes debts payable. I have no position on "hyperinflation." Who knows. I don't think there is a politician tough enough to stop currency devaluation for long - it creates too many desirable illusions. The real problems with devaluation are (1) imposed redistribution of wealth creates social instability; and (2) malinvestment puts cash in the wrong places and takes it away from the right places. For example, inflation fuelled growth has mispriced oil, and funded terrorism over the past decade or longer. There are many complex systemic problems. Bottom line, saving creates wealth, not borrowing, as per the "Squanderville" parable. Is this a big or small problem? BIG for sure. I don't really care whether gold trades at $1500 or $1900 today. I'm reading the bigger trends. Every sector BUT gold just plain scares me.
Gold Has Broken Technically And The Selling Will Be Scary [View article]
I think your analysis is smart - you have covered the bases. My critique is that you are using a rear-view mirror. We are not replaying 2008-09 in gold, though we could do in stocks (the bad news is pointing to recession).
Operation Twist is not inflationary, in that it does not expand the money supply. However, it moves money into the MBS market, and will presumably stimulate the mortgage refi trade. That of course does free up a modest amount of spending money, which will work its way into the consumer markets (at the expense of the banks, who will be collecting lower levels of interest on the refis.
However, look at the fundamentals, Eric. Is the collapse of the monetary system as we know it not gold bullish?
Of course, anything can happen short-term, and I understand why pinched investors sell their winners. But then you've gotta think, in a recession, where are your next winners going to come from? Then I'm with most of the crowd that has amassed here.
If I were to start picking my expected winners for 2012, I'd have to nix general equities, the banking sector, the USD, etc. What is left? Real interest rates will stay low in a recession. And when and where does gold thrive? Right in that sweet spot.
What then is the argument for gold stocks? Try running the CDNX ratio chart over GOLD. We have already hit the bottom in the small cap miners in gold terms. That implies that the way from here is up. Add to that the new mutual fund buying in the large miners. And where are they going to go in a recession?
Who is it that has been saying gold stocks will be the next utilities - Jim Sinclair? Yes:
http://bit.ly/qAhKdC
I think he has got it. With the big miners now paying dividends, and doing fine in terms of revenue and profit growth, and with the Yen, Euro and USD in their death throes... Hey Goldcorp, Yamana and Newmont are now utility stocks!
Last but not least, what technical guy is not going to look for those gaps to be filled in the above charts? October is weak seasonally for gold. A few weeks' of underperformance and base building is reasonable to expect.
But the technical analysis has to be informed by fundamentals. My fundamental analysis tells me that currency collapses and bank failures are gold bullish - to a very high degree!
Jim Cramer Gets It Right on Gold [View article]
Jim Cramer Gets It Right on Gold [View article]
Stock Ideas for $5000 Gold [View article]
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My reading - gold is only starting to get lively here, and there is quite a ways to go.
We spent years waiting for $400 gold. The milestones are tripping by much faster now. Back then, Richard Russell said we would remember $400 gold as "dirt cheap." He was and is a wise man.
It seems the only policy idea out there is to destroy every major currency on the planet. Fortunately, gold has no central bank, so is pretty well insulated from that particular dynamic.
As to slickvguy, I have to commend you for your courage, to speak from conviction on this issue. However, I think that you may be underestimating this particular bull. What evidence would it take to change your mind on this one? Because, whatever that is, I think you will eventually see it!
So long as real interest rates are negative, gold will rise. That's about it.