Marvell (MRVL) -1.1% AH after David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital discloses it sold 1.27M shares of the wireless/storage chipmaker last week. The sale only amounts to a small fraction of the 51.8M shares Greenlight held at the end of Q4. [View news story]
1.1 % is a mere 11 cents. Also, Einhorn unloaded a very modest 2% of his position. That's not a BFD, unless the amounts are screened/stepped by the quarterly reporting date. In other words, without more up to date info, we can't tell whether the shares he's sold are some minor portfolio adjustment, or the start of a big dump which caught the quarterly reporting deadline.
While major food companies look to China for growth, the government in China looks set to play a little defense. State-owned China Foods says it will buy wineries in the U.S. and Australia to help the nation compete on the wine front. The bigger issue: Will China stand pat on the coffee front while Nestle (NSRGY.PK) and Starbucks (SBUX) invade its turf? [View news story]
That's putting the cart before the horse. The first question to answer is whether or not Chinese consumers will take to coffee in any significant way. Then the second is whether it's perceived as a food or a foreign luxury good (like say, McDonald's or KFC), and then finally whether or not state-sponsored competition can compete.
I'm not an Apple optimist, but I do not follow your reasoning. You're going to give them zero credit for net cash amounting to about $125 or $130 per share today? If you allow for the cash, shouldn't your target be $250?
How so? Bill Gross will continue to do the best he can in his asset class. Historically that has been excellent compared to others, any macro-economic views he holds aside.
By "in this space" do you mean Seeking Alpha, or the bond fund buying public?
Maybe a one to two year trade long in bonds makes sense, but sooner or later, I think we'll enter a long term bond bear market.
Gundlach is a heavy hitter, but he's focused on the short to medium term.
For a heavy hitter with a less optimistic long-term opinion, I offer PIMCO's Bill Gross. He's been openly pessimistic about long term inflation (and hence bonds) for a couple of years.
If EDV invests in long term strips, why does it appear to pay a regular dividend? There are no regular coupons, and none of the 25-year out principal should be coming due. Are these cash dividends, or 1099 "imputed" dividends?
It's not obvious which is the case, from charts I've seen, or from the ETFDB website.
At some point, I've been toying with the idea of shorting a zero-coupon vehicle. If it's truly zero coupon and you were short, you'd book an imputed (not cash) loss every year on the imputed interest. So, it's of interest to me to know if these are cash or imputed payments.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
"Are you prepared for hyperinflation?"
Somehow, I'm reminded of the Monty Python quote, "No one expects the Spanish Inquisition." Hyperinflation is indeed a long-term concern given central bank reflationary policies in the US, Europe, and Japan. But, I don't think you can ever be fully prepared for a disaster like that.
The author's assertion that precious metals interests will help rings true, but only in the absence of confiscation. Who knows what flailing governments will do in the event of hyperinflation?
Why Apple's P/E Multiple Is An Anomaly [View article]
I believe you have a fundamental error at the start of your article.
You have confused dividends with earnings. The valuation model you've used should be based on the flows to the equity holder, which means that the "E" term should be multiplied by the payout ratio.
Looked at another way, there is no earnings growth "g" if all earnings are paid out as dividends, because then then there is no reinvestment. Assuming the company's profitability per unit of invested capital is constant, you won't grow without reinvestment.
BTW, I double-checked this in a finance text by Sharpe. If you're interested, I'll scan and send you a pdf of the relevant pages.
"Under my scenario, which is predicated on both an improving economy and reduced unemployment, along with the eventual unwinding of the Federal Reserve's QE Infinity...."
Taken together with your horizon of 4 years, this is a pretty blue-sky projection going forward. I think that JPM has room to grow, but lending to the max might not be the way to do it. The relatively low level of rates, and overall borrower leverage ratios, might conspire to produce the income due to increased NIM you project, but it would also leave JPM more vulnerable to the next, and in my opinion, inevitable, downturn.
Intel (INTC) has bagged Altera (ALTR) as a chip foundry client. Altera, which has a near-duopoly on the FPGA market in tandem with Xilinx (XLNX), has hired Intel to make FPGAs using the latter's next-gen 14nm manufacturing process and 3D transistor tech. Altera says it will still rely on its existing foundry partner, TSMC (TSM), to make 20nm and older-process chips. The deal comes a month after reports Intel had struck a foundry deal with Cisco. ALTR +2.1% AH. XLNX -0.8%. INTC +0.5%. TSM +0.9% after falling 3.4% in regular trading. [View news story]
I didn't know that TSMC had 20 nm yet--isn't that a couple of years off? Maybe Altera is hedging its bets on process progress.
Marvell (MRVL) -1.1% AH after David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital discloses it sold 1.27M shares of the wireless/storage chipmaker last week. The sale only amounts to a small fraction of the 51.8M shares Greenlight held at the end of Q4. [View news story]
I'm holding until further info.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
While major food companies look to China for growth, the government in China looks set to play a little defense. State-owned China Foods says it will buy wineries in the U.S. and Australia to help the nation compete on the wine front. The bigger issue: Will China stand pat on the coffee front while Nestle (NSRGY.PK) and Starbucks (SBUX) invade its turf? [View news story]
Apple: Is It Finally Time To Buy? [View article]
The Case For Buying Treasuries Now [View article]
By "in this space" do you mean Seeking Alpha, or the bond fund buying public?
The Case For Buying Treasuries Now [View article]
Gundlach is a heavy hitter, but he's focused on the short to medium term.
For a heavy hitter with a less optimistic long-term opinion, I offer PIMCO's Bill Gross. He's been openly pessimistic about long term inflation (and hence bonds) for a couple of years.
Searching for the Best Bond ETF [View article]
It's not obvious which is the case, from charts I've seen, or from the ETFDB website.
At some point, I've been toying with the idea of shorting a zero-coupon vehicle. If it's truly zero coupon and you were short, you'd book an imputed (not cash) loss every year on the imputed interest. So, it's of interest to me to know if these are cash or imputed payments.
Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
Somehow, I'm reminded of the Monty Python quote, "No one expects the Spanish Inquisition." Hyperinflation is indeed a long-term concern given central bank reflationary policies in the US, Europe, and Japan. But, I don't think you can ever be fully prepared for a disaster like that.
The author's assertion that precious metals interests will help rings true, but only in the absence of confiscation. Who knows what flailing governments will do in the event of hyperinflation?
Apple: Zero Growth ... Really? [View article]
A margin squeeze could mean positive or low top line growth, but a zero or decreased earnings.
I think AAPL is fairly priced at the moment, because ex-cash, the PE assigned to the company allows for this contingency.
Why Apple's P/E Multiple Is An Anomaly [View article]
You have confused dividends with earnings. The valuation model you've used should be based on the flows to the equity holder, which means that the "E" term should be multiplied by the payout ratio.
Looked at another way, there is no earnings growth "g" if all earnings are paid out as dividends, because then then there is no reinvestment. Assuming the company's profitability per unit of invested capital is constant, you won't grow without reinvestment.
BTW, I double-checked this in a finance text by Sharpe. If you're interested, I'll scan and send you a pdf of the relevant pages.
JPMorgan's Huge Upside Catalyst [View article]
Taken together with your horizon of 4 years, this is a pretty blue-sky projection going forward. I think that JPM has room to grow, but lending to the max might not be the way to do it. The relatively low level of rates, and overall borrower leverage ratios, might conspire to produce the income due to increased NIM you project, but it would also leave JPM more vulnerable to the next, and in my opinion, inevitable, downturn.
I hope they do not implement your strategy.
Intel (INTC) has bagged Altera (ALTR) as a chip foundry client. Altera, which has a near-duopoly on the FPGA market in tandem with Xilinx (XLNX), has hired Intel to make FPGAs using the latter's next-gen 14nm manufacturing process and 3D transistor tech. Altera says it will still rely on its existing foundry partner, TSMC (TSM), to make 20nm and older-process chips. The deal comes a month after reports Intel had struck a foundry deal with Cisco. ALTR +2.1% AH. XLNX -0.8%. INTC +0.5%. TSM +0.9% after falling 3.4% in regular trading. [View news story]
How the Fed Could Fix The Economy -- And Why It Hasn't [View article]
Kevin Puil: $4/lb Copper Is On Its Way [View article]
A more direct investment could be JJC, which is a copper-based ETF.
There's always futures, but you have to open a futures account to trade them.
5 Marijuana Stocks Going Crazy (And This Could Be Just The Beginning) [View article]