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jonk...

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  • Avoid Annaly Capital [View article]
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    especially if its peers are yielding up to 400 basis points higher. For that reason, I would avoid Annaly -- there are simply better options out there
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    what is particularly strange about a comment like this from this blogger, is the reason other "peers" have higher yields, is because they are perceived as riskier investments, investors demand a higher yield on that riskier investment, otherwise they would not invest in it... and this buying of "safer" stocks is what drives the stock price up and a yield down, (if for instance the dividend is the same)

    an inverse relationship to how the company is perceived by an investor... but your advise would make it seem that an investor should look at the yield as a means for a seeing a "better" company to invest in????
    May 8, 2014. 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Annaly Capital [View article]
    dohh... NLY pretty much put the brakes on the thought of a dividend cut in the conference call...

    saying they will maintain the 30 cents, so that advise to sell NLY is not going to work out too well... not they will have to buy back higher from that 5% down you reflected on.
    May 8, 2014. 10:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Annaly Capital [View article]
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    I will be listening to the CC today. I am sure they will try to spin the results.
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    why would they need to spin the results, when you gave the very reason why the results were not the same as last quarter, the prepayments were much higher than one would expect. now, this may be a trend, but in reality, prepayments vary wildly... while the calculation needs to reflect this for an "average" of prepayments going forward.

    this is what they are going to say, so I guess you can call that "spin" on what is actually happening. although this is what is actually happening.

    if this prepayment "trend" is the same next quarter, then there will be a cut, if it snaps back to the other side, then they will not cut the dividend.
    May 8, 2014. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Annaly Capital Management Heading For $8.50 Per Share? [View article]
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    A look at Annaly's historical dividends shows that the company has paid annual distributions of around $1.00 a share in 2005 and 2007.
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    a closer look at what actually happened in 2006, would have seen a reversed spread of interest rates for a short period of time, and the reason for the average $1.00 in dividends...

    2014 is a complete opposite "historic" event, in that the spread is very wide, and VERY healthy and pretty much guaranteed by the fed to be that way through 2014... just about guaranteeing some dividend that is OVER the $1.00 that they earned during those low yield years....

    the reason for the decline so far has to do with hedging against book value declines (letting their portfolio prepay down and pulling in their horns waiting for the bottom of portfolio declines)... while the interest rates look to be very healthy, considering their borrowing costs are held down by the same fed that caused the reverse spread in 2006...

    now what about the portfolio problem that could cause further declines in the dividend, right now the 3 percent 30 year is selling for below par, meaning that buying these comes close to a sure thing if held till they prepay or mature, (because prepay spread is also very good), 3.5 percent 30 year is also selling slightly below par....

    as soon as 4% sells below par or very close to it... then buying these will also soon be a very good deal..

    and the amount they can earn is more than reasonable.

    most likely interest rates rise so that the 4% becomes reasonable.. or interest rates remain flat, in which case, NLY's portfolio also remains flat, which also means no more declines in dividends due to selling off the portfolio....

    this will occur some time in 2014... and it will happen much sooner than an average dividend of $1.00 occurs... because this situation is far FAR better than in 2006
    Dec 23, 2013. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management - Has Enough Margin Of Safety Been Built In? [View article]
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    l. In july the stock price was $18 not $10. Either way, your last paragraph is ignorant.
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    I don't know which July you are talking about there, or why "July" is an important month to you, except that you dug out a chart and looked for the high, but you made the fatal mistake to not realize that the stock was also $10 BEFORE it was $18 too...

    it goes both ways.... what is ignorant is to not know enough about the stock that you would have to get out a chart and not even realize what year that high was in....

    again, it is a crime for even a retired person to not have some part of their portfolio in this type of investment when the potential of that investment is so ridiculously high for any time period going forward, including the next dividend... which will be born out soon enough.
    Dec 20, 2013. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management - Has Enough Margin Of Safety Been Built In? [View article]
    investing is about being able to retire (and by retire, i mean do what ever it is you want to do) when you are a student.. or you are 26 years old, or 36 years old, or as soon as possible if you can't do those.

    and if one's concern is "about capital preservation" one certainly is not going to invest well enough to "retire" at any time, or atleast be able to "retire" as soon as one would want to.

    investing in the "preferred" stock will take you twice as long to retire, for the same stock basically, and worse, I've been in this stock for more than 10 years, and i've never seen the common stock as low a price to what it's "potential" is... ever... and i think that includes it's entire 15 years of history...

    so not putting some down here is more of a crime, rather than investing conservatively here... I know my Order got filled at $9.72 along with at $10.65 and $11 and change... and more further up... and in a few years, people will look very fondly on just about all of those prices.... especially with dividend reinvestment at these low prices...

    remember, 2 years of common stock dividends is nearly equal to $3 dollars... for a common stock that is at $10... you don't get many opportunities like that... and i'm here to tell anyone at any age from 3 to 103, that this is a crime not to take advantage of in some way for some part of one's "investing portfolio" and I don't care how old one is. seriously.
    Dec 12, 2013. 12:55 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened? Discussing Annaly's Third Quarter, The Bizarre Call And Its Future [View article]
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    Incorrect Jonk.
    The president is not the CEO
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    if this is who you were posting about then:

    1) Kevin Keyes last buy was the 100K shares of investment in NLY and was at $10.43, not $13.90...
    2) this amount is 17% of Kevin Keys' salary... that clearly is not "chump change'.... and fully 1/3 of all shares he now owns.
    3) obviously your thesis about insider buying, and "chump change" for both people, is so far off along with the price at which he is buying and when, that clearly you were posting an incorrect number to mislead, sometimes it is wise that you learn, rather than show how little of it you are doing if your intent was not to mislead.
    Dec 5, 2013. 04:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened? Discussing Annaly's Third Quarter, The Bizarre Call And Its Future [View article]
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    Also the president bought shares as well.
    His last buy was $13.90 I think it said.
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    the "president" is not a president she is a CEO, and she is not a "he"... and the person you are talking about is the same person the other poster is talking about.... so that is like strike 3....

    along with 3% of one's salary is not "chump change".... but other than that... you may want to practice when to learn rather than show how little of it you are doing.
    Dec 4, 2013. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened? Discussing Annaly's Third Quarter, The Bizarre Call And Its Future [View article]
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    Lastly I was just poking fun at Jonks ridiculous comment that they will be in the "mood" to earn more.
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    and you not understanding that this is exactly what is going on, only underlines how little time you have been in MReits...
    Dec 4, 2013. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of Annaly's 13.5% Dividend Yield [View article]
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    and specifically a steeper yield curve that would result in higher net interest margins for mortgage-backed securities that form the bulk of NLY's portfolio.
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    the yield curve is already steep, what you are seeing is NLY spending the part of the yield curve that you forgot about and did not account for in your table, on portfolio safety, increasing from 50% protection to 75% of their entire portfolio, which has never happened before, otherwise their yield would have been substantially more. what is truly remarkable is that they could earn that 32 cents of your calculation on a far smaller portfolio... FAR smaller... and unbelievably low leverage, and will be even lower this quarter because of the commercial paper if they don't also chose to invest more.

    the underlying yield curve is plenty steep, more than most of the time in their history... it is whether NLY decides to invest or continue to sell is the only question. they can, with a flick of a finger easily double their earnings, the question is, are they in the mood to invest and do it? that is the only question... right now they are overly concentrating on protecting their future book value, by deciding that there will be even better opportunities in the year horizon.... think about that, the only thing that is holding them back is the prospect of better opportunities, yet that is a sell to you?

    the problem you have put yourself into, is after deciding last time that maybe you will sell, that now you are selling at markedly low prices compared to book and potential of the stock... even at your $12 price of last time, instead opting to sell between dividends and before holidays... when prices of the stock are always lower, opting to advise, I guess to buy higher when the next dividend is about to be paid out? or even later missing a year or years worth of dividends reinvested at these low prices, when stock prices are markedly higher? meanwhile investors are still collecting the 12% dividend while they grab a beer and watch the stock price do a circular dance.

    choosing to sell because one sees the stock price that always goes down between dividends and earnings and holidays for that matter, is wrong on many levels.. as after the holidays will show a substantial opportunity missed.

    as if getting 32 cents is not high enough for this stock price???? worse you calculated that without taking into account that they spent the amount they did on going from 50% to 75% of protection... there is not too many times more that they could do that... so that increasing spread eventually shows itself conveniently in your simple table where even the blind can then see it.
    Nov 27, 2013. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened? Discussing Annaly's Third Quarter, The Bizarre Call And Its Future [View article]
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    What I would love to see management provide is a calculation/estimate of taxable income, as this is really key to profitability and more importantly, what they have to or can afford to pay in dividends.
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    hmmm? they already do give the number that most closely aligns with the dividend...
    their "core earnings", which is what matters when it comes to the dividend and what an investor would care about the most.

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    Core earnings of $282.3 million, $0.28 earnings per common share..

    The Company distributes dividends based on its estimate of taxable earnings per common share, not GAAP earnings. Taxable and GAAP earnings will typically differ due to items such as unrealized and realized gains and losses, differences in premium amortization and discount accretion, and non-deductible general and administrative expenses.
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    and then they go on to give you that number in earnings that don't include items that would not effect their their ability to draw a dividend on such a number, which is shown above....

    quoting GAAP earnings as this blog does is just flying a big red herring on a flag pole... it tells you nothing about what is really going on... and doing so only misleads investors hugely to both way over estimating gains or big changes in those gains.

    none of the huge "gains" from their hedging would be realized in such a core number, until they actually take a gain... and usually they don't... so it is horrific to compare that number to a past one...

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    Total commercial real estate investments increased from $1.0 billion at the end of Q2 to $1.3 billion at the end of Q3.
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    and that $1.3 billion number turned into $1.6 billion one month later... showing even more deleveraging, and even safer leverage ratios...

    their spread was larger, but this hides the fact that their spread was even larger than this, except that they chose to protect 75% of their portfolio, instead of 50%....

    obviously they chose safety over more earnings...

    so their dividend literally can be what ever they chose it to be... this isn't a question of they "can't" earn more, it is a question of are they in the "mood" to earn more...

    this is a big difference, one that is not being conveyed by bloggers.
    Nov 12, 2013. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: More Pain Will Come After It Announces Another Dividend Cut [View article]
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    I get it. I know how the markets work, and for every seller there is a buyer. Honestly folks, after you read the earnings report of Annaly from last night, do you still have the warm and fuzzies?
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    I don't think you read the same earnings report that I did? core earnings of .28 cents, compared to .29 cents over even .30 is some devastating event?

    did you notice they earned that on a portfolio that was like 75% the size, and 60% the size?

    do you understand the potential that ensues? you are making the same mistake you did last time when you sold, and told people to sell, and I said then too, that you were doing it at the wrong time again... only to buy back in later...

    you are mistaking kinetic energy, for potential energy... NLY is all about potential energy, their hand keeps getting stronger... their leverage is ridiculously low, safety ridiculously high, and I'll give you a number that no one has figured in, they increased their Commercial to $1.6 billion just this last month, from the 1.2 billion on their report.... that means their ridiculously low leverage they put down for last quarter is even lower... much lower now.

    it is just amazing they are earning the same amount with higher safety of swaps, and lower leverage....

    they could literally flick a finger and double their earnings... that is what you call potential energy. they are building it up for a reason...

    this isn't lower earnings because they can't earn more, it is lower earnings because they did not invest, there is a huge difference...

    this time next year, investors will have yet again, another ton of dividend earnings, invested yet again, in a price that is lower than book, and lower than the earnings potential, that is where you are supposed to be investing...

    you are looking at the stock price as "losses"... this is the same mistake avatarcl made when he figured in "stock price" as "gains" back 12 months ago, and 9 months ago on AGNC... only to see that evaporate... as i said would happen... MREITS DON"T MAKE YOU MONEY FROM THE STOCK PRICE, they make you money on the dividend in the MREIT space... as AGNC investors are finally figuring out.

    the only question is what price you buy the stock, the price soon becomes completely immaterial, NLY's stock price has been at these prices Many times before.... I know, I first bought NLY at these prices 11 or 12 years ago... it has nothing to do with the price given enough time, because the price stays in this range of too low, and too high, then rinses and repeats.... in 7 years, my money will double AGAIN... And i'll tell you right now, it won't be because the stock price will double... although it has many times before.... it will double because of the DIVIDENDS..... reinvested dividends in a stock that has "potential"....

    and NLY has POTENTIAL dividends in spades....
    Nov 7, 2013. 11:27 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly's Q3 Results: A Slow Decline Is A Decline After All [View article]
    you can tell a blogger doesn't know what they are doing, when they start quoting GAAP numbers...

    one quarter NLY showed "GAAP" earnings of 90 cents... right after some blogger just like this was pointing at a "GAAP" loss the quarter before... it is beyond ridiculous to use in any analysis...
    Nov 7, 2013. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly's Q3 Results: A Slow Decline Is A Decline After All [View article]
    oh wow, they just said that the Commercial stands at $1.6 billion, so they increased from $1.2 to $1.6 billion in a single month...

    that means their leverage now is even less than the ridiculously low levels they have now...

    it also means extremely steady spread income with the small portfolio they announced for the quarter end....

    the only question really is when they stop letting the portfolio get smaller....

    it really is incredibly that they are earning about the same income from the spread that they did two quarters ago, with a portfolio that is like 75% of what it was two quarters ago.

    what will they do? when will they turn on the leverage? who cares... in a year, you'll have a ton of income, and stock price that is probably better than it is now.... even better that ton of income will be reinvested at these low prices, lower than book value, lower than it's earnings worth, and lower than what the stock price will be soon enough....

    let the fear mongering go on as long as possible... we should thank people like this blogger... they are all whistling the same tune... and that is when you can make money... when everyone decides all in one direction.
    Nov 7, 2013. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly's Q3 Results: A Slow Decline Is A Decline After All [View article]
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    I don't pretend to understand how the amounts of the dividends are determined
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    one thing you can determine, is that the dividend is based on the quarter that produced them, the same earnings that we now know.

    the quarter (and dividend) that is upcoming, (the one we are in now) will be determined solely on whether NLY decides to invest more amounts of money than what they have been doing, so that "dividend" can by 35cents it can be 30 cents it can be 40cents depending on if NLY feels in the mood to invest more amounts of money, their leverage is ridiculously low... so the sky is the limit on what they decide... except of course they are extremely conservative, and this is why they can make a profit in just about any situation... (unlike some other company's recent earnings reports)

    we do know they are on target to invest more money in Commercial... so that amount should be expanding, but we do not know if NLY will invest more in their core spread business... perhaps the conference call will let us in on that....
    Nov 7, 2013. 09:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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