GreenMom

Exchange Rate Uncertainty Deterring Planned Investment, Hurting Profits

Would the invention of a new exit tool be an interesting development since the writing of this article, or is this old news? Appears that Fed may be tightening via a redirection of money supply via the Term Deposit Facility.

Fed Pushes for New Exit Tool to Battle Inflation
www.cnbc.com/id/34616046

Don’t Be Suckered by Stock Market Rally in 2010

I think I've got it figured out... everyone is taking their emergency unemployment checks and playing the stock market with them.

Until I see insider buying starting up again, this rally is not to be believed, it is still a desperate attempt by the smart money to hand it off to the individual investor, and it has not worked, and it's starting to stink.

Calling on Smaller Banks: Naivete or Duplicity?

Next thing to watch for: BHO will try to pressure the small businesses community to hire. Offer some meager tax-break carrot while beating with a large or-else stick.

I hope small banks attended the White House whip a$$ session as a curiosity and photo op, nothing more. They've done nothing wrong, they are still lending to credit-worthy borrowers... it's just that there are a lot fewer who are still credit-worthy these days. Keep up the good work guys, and don't let yourselves become the next strips of raw meat to be fed to the hungry central bank vultures.

My 2010 Market Predictions

Interesting predictions... however, I just have this sneaking suspicion that our government is cooking the numbers on everything. Add the twisting of the arms of small banks to lend... something is really not adding up.

Nor are the government carrots working... the new homebuilder numbers sure didn't get the memo that the first time homebuyers credit had been extended.

I think we revisit the Dow 8000s in 2010 -- maybe lower -- and it's not going to be a rapid rebound this time. "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" kinda thing.

Jingle Mail Rock: Strategic Mortgage Defaults Could Increase Dramatically in 2010

This whole phenomena is actually a bloodless coup of the powers that be... or used to be... driving the economy. We bought, bought, bought homes because the almighty US govt made it a priority for Americans to realize the American dream of owning a home, so they relaxed standards for home purchases until they were laughable.

Then, as continued lax standards drove up real estate prices, you could HELOC your way to living it up... vacations, boats, ripping out perfectly functioning kitchens and baths because they were "outdated..."

So, it's been a great party, but now it's time to wake up the drunks passed out on the spacious lawn and clean up the mess on the granite counters.

Sadly, our government is too feeble-minded right now to do anything but more of the same... spend, spend, spend, hoping for something to work. They've chosen to help failed politically-connected corporations and banks, while ignoring small businesses. They have ignored our protests as they loaded our backsides with the bill. But elections are coming. We can choose to vote these idiots out of their cushy jobs and into the real world.

Why Gold Isn't a Bubble

Permabears unite! With the inverse ETFs, we can now enjoy the elevator rides to the basement without exposing our own fuzzy bear-bums to infinite risk while we wait out the euphoria.

Actually, I'm not a permabear, I just read the financials of everything I invest in... or invest against. So, call me practical, not perma.

Outlook for a Telling Tuesday: Tops Truly Tested

Instead of bitching about (or worse, relying on) GDP, which is a dubious US Govt estimate of a revision of a guess, let's check in with two places having much better visibility of what's around the bend.

The more an investor knows about the overall health of the consumer, the better. So, first, a credit rating agency...

December 22, 2009 - Equifax
Equifax Data Show U.S. Consumer Payment Trends Continue to Deteriorate
www.mortgagemag.com/ne...

Knowing that a housing bubble helped to cause the first crash of this recession, and hearing that commercial real estate may be next, where can we go to get some insight on CRE? Let's tap DSNews, which covers the mortgage default servicing industry...

Lack of Bank Liquidity Threatens Commercial Real Estate Market

www.dsnews.com/article...

Q3 GDP, final: +2.2 vs. +2.7% expected, +2.8% previous estimate, -0.7% in Q2. That was unexpected.

Market responds to the downward revision to 2.2 by going UP on skinny volume. How long before the wall of money/smart money/institutional investors start shoving and shorting this joke of a market back into a black hole?

You can see the money rotating into defensive positions today, but even those shelters are a bit crowded. But when everyone flocks to WMT, THS and CAG, just like last spring, those getting in today will get a nice exit level.

Bank Failures Reach 140 in 2009

Not so mixed signal from real estate, I'd say...

U.S. Commercial Property Falls to Lowest in 7 Years

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

from the above link:

The delinquency rate for U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities rose to 4.47 percent at of the end of November, Moody’s Investors Service said on Dec. 10. That’s almost six times the year-ago rate of 0.75 percent.

Delinquencies for commercial real estate mortgages held by banks may rise to 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter and reach as much as 8 percent next year.

The WTO upholds its earlier ruling for the U.S. against China's restrictions on the importation of U.S. music, film and books. If China fails to act, the U.S. can get the WTO's blessing on commercial sanctions against Chinese goods. (ETF: PGJ)

And THEN who will buy our debt? Careful, folks... we are not in much of a position to negotiate. Furthermore, if you think that China is going to actually BUY the imported US music, film and books after the WTO's decision... heck, if you think that China heeds the WTO at all, think again. China has perfected piracy for decades. They manage to get our film and music releases before we do. Sure, they love our entertainment, especially at their price... FREE.

U.S. commercial paper outstanding contracts for the fourth straight week, shrinking by $59.6B to $1.15T, and underscoring that the credit market's recent expansion appears to have stalled.

I know a bunch of folks on SA hate her, but Meredith Whitney warned about the evaporation of so many financing alternatives for day to day business expenses, on her last interview on CNBC.

I think businesses should be able to go directly to the Fed window and bypass the bloated, self-serving banks that won't lend to keep real companies going and real people employed. The current system is obviously not working.

Initial Jobless Claims: 480K vs. 465K expected, 473K last week. Continuing claims +5K to 5,186,000.

Let's look at the UNADJUSTED, non-played-around-with number from the link above. I stopped trusting the "seasonally adjusted" numbers long ago, because of the raw new territory we are in now, with this severely damaged economy. You cannot magically create jobs and enable people to pay their bills by fluffing the numbers.

"The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 555,344 in the week ending Dec. 12, a decrease of 107,393 from the previous week. There were 629,867 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008."

Whoa.

Ok, now for the stomach-churning part. The ones falling off the rolls are continuing to increase.

"States reported 4,226,300 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Nov. 28, an increase of 45,922 from the prior week. There were 994,188 claimants in the comparable week in 2008. EUC weekly claims include first, second, and third tier activity."

That's 4.2 MILLION who have exhausted their normal unemployment benefits.... and these are NOT counted in our country's "official" 10% unemployment rate.

One more thing, then I'll get off my soapbox. The 480k of initial claims conveniently does not have to count the 97,837 who transferred from regular unemployment to extended unemployment. This number is getting alarmingly big, AND is a big reversal in the wrong direction from last week's report, where there was a DECREASE of 190,233 of people on extended benefits, ows.doleta.gov/press/2.... When I see swings like that in data, I dig back further. Week before, ows.doleta.gov/press/2..., those collecting extended benefits INCREASED by 58,000.

So, not only is seasonally adjusted data not to be trusted, but I think they are also gaming the number of people on extended benefits.

Commercial Real Estate Downturn Marches On

ACAT, thanks for the insight, really appreciate it. Sheila Bair was on CNBC this morning, and I think one of her comments was interesting:

"I think there are a number of very positive features that will impose—reimpose, I hope—significant market discipline on these large institutions. We need that right now," Bair said. "Regulation can only do so much and investors and creditors need to understand that their money is at risk."

In the same interview, she had spoken of CRE being "a more heavy driver of bank challenges."

Meredith Whitney: The U.S. Government Is out of Bullets

Celebrity analysts who have paid their dues along the way, and actually study economic data and try to warn us while our own government tries to trick us with BLS smoke and mirrors are PRETTY DARN USEFUL AND APPRECIATED.

THANKS for gathering all of these videos and comments in one place for me!!

GO, MEREDITH! She sure was right on GS. That stock obediently shifted into neutral and floated with the tides right after her comment. So, she called C's massive crapout, and then GS's hangover. That's two for Meredith! I'll bet she's back on CNBC soon with #3. Oh wait... she already HAS given us #3. Our govt is out of bullets!

I think I'll trade as if she's right. Meredith, Meredith, all dressed in black, cuttin' the banks and the government no slack!

Her future business counts on her being right. I'd recommend her to replace Bernanke AND Geithner, but I know she'd just laugh at the pay cut.


on Dec 09 01:49 PM yomamma wrote:

> Economic data will determine the market direction, not predictions
> by celebrity analysts.

What the Public Is Paying for Healthcare

Whenever someone else pays the bill on anything, you stop watching the cost.

REAL health care reform will come as employers FLAT OUT REFUSE to rehire. The IDEA of health care reform has already pushed premiums for 2010 up 15%, and it hasn't even gotten through Congress.

Employees are LIABILITIES. I forcast a huge sea change away from traditional job offers to temp hiring. There is already a creep in temp hiring, and some are saying it's because we're headed for recovery, that you will soon see uptick in permanent jobs. I disagree, I think temp hiring is the incredibly cost effective answer for getting the work done that must be done, and most permanent jobs are just not coming back. Small business owners, the lifeblood of this economy, are just trying to survive themselves, and they are learning new ways to do so.

Temp employees are usually independent contractors, ie, they buy their own insurance, or have very limited, non-Cadillac plans they can buy into. Part of health care reform will be this growing temp population taking a good hard look at the health insurance they really want to pay for. And it will happen without government interference.