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Ponchovilla

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  • Key Takeaways From Barrick Gold's 4Q Report [View article]
    ABX's upside will be more related directly to any increase in the price of gold. I see little leverage in ABX's stock price based on their financials. Levered free cash flow remains ugly. At some point their costs will go up as the scenario of high grading plays out. There may be several better ways to invest your money for better returns than Barrick Gold. Risks are still more than trivial.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold, The Best Of The Worst [View article]
    V C: ... and that's the good news. Just wait a bit for the bad news and the use of the word "disappointment"
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil: An Ocean Of Losses - Swimming Naked When The Tide Went Out... [View article]
    Do not confuse scientific fact with the prize in a box of cracker jacks unless you took a weather course in the 7th grade and got to draw the 4 major cloud types but are still confused when you see monsters in the cloud images.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil: An Ocean Of Losses - Swimming Naked When The Tide Went Out... [View article]
    Please do not introduce facts into the Political delusions of Glenn Beck and his contingent of goldbusters. That is those who bought gold coins at his insistence and have been fleeced out of $100's of dollars per coin. Since it's near Valentine's day maybe he will sell chocolate covered strawberries at $45.00 per dozen to determine how many fools are willing to depart with their money.
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent Investors Should Be Excited About These Numbers [View article]
    "Unfortunately, Alcatel-Lucent has a lot of junk within its company, like its Access segment that accounts for half of total revenue with low margins, that prevent its IP routing business from driving the stock higher."
    Read this ten times over and ten times more until it sinks in that ALU has a long way to go to settle in as a stock that has $5.00 in value not a stock that will rocket to new highs based on a strategy of hope. This is a tough commodity type business with no killer technologies in spite of the hype of all varieties. Is it worth $3.50? Yes. When will it hit $5.00?, $7.50? $10.00? Are you patient? For how long?
    Feb 10, 2015. 05:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why To Buy And Why Not To Buy Gold ? [View article]
    Very well written article and with historical data and evidenced based analysis. It's too bad that emotion and ideology feed the "investment thesis" of the gold bugs. More to the point those "gold bugs" who have something to sell. As for the buyers caveat emptor particularly in the raw coin and bullion markets. In spite of the rhetoric gold acts like a commodity first while responding to geopolitical risk and the inflation and deflation cycles and crises of confidence. That describes a trading participant more than an investor. Commodity trading is not for the faint of heart or for those who do not have substantial risk capital and can afford to lose their investment while not jeopardizing their mortgage or children's college fund. As insurance against catastrophe sometimes the insurance premium is a price too high to pay.
    But betting with the big boys in Las Vegas and with FOREX traders sure is fun ...at least for short periods of time.
    Jan 29, 2015. 06:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold: An Interesting Pick For The Second Half Of 2015 [View article]
    I have two major problems with the analysis:
    1. Assumes AISC will stay in the $700 range while the use of AISC is thought to be some industry standard definition while accounting creativity and high grading on the operations side can make significant swings in the "true" AISC number.
    2. Assumes gold will rise by 30%
    ABX has under performed relative to the price of gold over the last year. The recent bump in the ABX stock price while encouraging to the "value investor" is still a wait and see proposition.
    There are substantial arguments that ABX's financials are not as robust as the author suggests: levered free cash flow is negative $700M from recent stats. The bond rating is ugly and there is only so much maintenance deferral that can be sustained before extracting ore of lower grades.
    My best guess is ABX is market perform relative to the price of gold. As a value play I am not convinced. So if you think gold goes to $1500 buy it and give us a "I told you so" but if gold goes to $1050 please refrain from "eventually I will be right"
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    Ben: This is one of the best articles I have ever read on SA. Even for those who may disagree with your analysis on ideological grounds it is challenging to counter your reasoning keeping in mind that we rarely know the true facts behind daily market movements. In fact most analysis is more noise than signal and offers an explanation for just about anything even when the explanation is dead wrong. My confirmation bias leads me to agree with you. But my bias is more evidenced based than ideological. Good work.
    Jan 17, 2015. 05:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold and silver stocks rally on China hopes [View news story]
    Furthermore THE RALLY fizzled nearly as fast as the time to read three words "spurred by hope"
    Sometime ago a wise man told me "hope is not a strategy" and Paul Harvey said: "and now the rest of the story" but
    "hope springs eternal"
    Gold mining is a tough and brutal business. Tough physically on the miners and tough financially on the investors in both debt and equity. I am not worried about missing the next big uptrend in gold. I am looking for objective evidence that the hemorrhaging in the share price will just turn into a slow bleed before declaring the patient can be released. Then maybe after careful thought I will determine if gold miners are a value play and I am not missing opportunity costs by making a better bet. What the heck it's only money and just look at all of the experience one can gather in averaging down while being paid with dividends to wait and wait and wait.
    Dec 30, 2014. 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas: Recession In 2015? [View article]
    There is no wonder. President Rick Perry has moved on to better things and without his guidance look what has happened to the price of oil. He can say factually "that didn't happen on my shift while I was the Governor of TEXAS"
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Own A Tesla Model S, Just Don't Dent It! [View article]
    Apparently Lou thinks Tesla is unique in rip offs in the automobile business and maybe should be driving a KIA. Oh no wait: read pissed consumer
    http://bit.ly/1CCrLn1
    Kia Motors - Engine blew, transmission died...still not right!
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $60: Not A Reasonable Price For Oil [View article]
    Are you a trader or an investor? Traders may be selling their positions in three days, covering short positions by the hour and going long or short as quick as hitting the enter key. The question is: who has the deep pockets to weather the storm?
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude Trading At $41.75/Bbl Is Continental Resources' Quandary [View article]
    Two comments on CLR:
    1. How fast does the stock price return to 2010 levels or go below?
    2. What will the debt/equity ratio look like year end 2015?
    One comment on the insurance companies who are insuring the hedge: I hope the executives have not depleted their companies' cash flow by extracting generous executive bonuses.
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude Trading At $41.75/Bbl Is Continental Resources' Quandary [View article]
    Did the insurance company take out insurance on the hedge? What happens when the music pauses and there are no chairs?
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Time Really Different? [View article]
    This time is different. No one alive and with financial acumen can claim to have experienced a financial recession the likes of 2008. There are lots of claims of knowledge about those events which are not much more than data points and opinions. In fact the term QE and how it was applied is the biggest experiment in my lifetime. Why didn't QE just destroy fiat dollars through hyperinflation like the gold bugs placed their bets? There was never a Eurozone before with a common currency and an uncommon number of diverse sovereign governments actly slowly while disagreeing frequently on a course of action. Think of trying to flea wash 17 feral cats in an open bath tub at one time.Then came the geopolitics and the Arab summer followed by the USA declaring oil independence. Now we are in the midst of currency wars where all of the princesses are so ugly it make Cinderella look like a homely teenager declared as Queen of the Prom. Add to that the rapid decline in oil prices which may take longer to rebound than a heart attack victim moving from flat line to critical care and if you can digest all of that with an accurate guess of how this all turns out then congratulations on being the Nobel Mind Reader.
    All things considered, the humble knowledge and experience of a seasoned investment pro is welcomed.
    Dec 14, 2014. 05:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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