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DougNeal

DougNeal
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  • I Have No Fear Of A Market Crash Or A Significant Correction, Here's Why: Part 1 [View article]
    The problem with the analysis is that the next recession will be caused by a bursting financial bubble just like the dot.com super bubble bust and the personal debt/housing/mortgage blowup of 2007/2008. The market is very significantly overvalued by every measure and especially from so much financial engineering of earnings -- not real earnings growth. Much of that share buyback money is proceeds from debt sales and corp debt has exploded. Corporate earnings is the most volatile series in the financial universe and reversion of mean or testing of that the last crisis low can be expected. Until then, stay extremely conservative from this point in time. You'll have much better opportunities. At this moment, the expected returns from equities for any period less than 7 years in NEGATIVE. This will be improved by falling prices at some point.
    Jun 14 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sum Of All Fears: Public Service Announcement - The Russell 2000 Is Wildly Overvalued! [View article]
    true. one day it'll matter, but that day may still be decades away.
    Mar 24 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharks Are Closing-In On Clean Energy Fuels [View article]
    LNG tanks are low pressure cryogenic storage tanks. The insulation is not perfect, so any heat gained vaporizes the cryogenic liquid. Vapor losses of 1 or 2% per day would be expected. This vapor must be vented to the atmosphere or to an expensive vapor recovery system. No, venting to atmosphere does not create a hazard as methane vapor is lighter than air and dissipates from a vent stack quickly.
    Feb 5 08:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are The Bearish Triggers? [View article]
    Great article Cam.

    It used to be that you would have to anticipate recessions for declines in earnings---usually higher interest rates triggering a recession. The problem is that the past two recessions were caused by burst bubbles. I fully expect the next recession to be triggered by a bubble as well. You're entirely correct, in my opinion, to watch China and Japan. In fact, the entire region including Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, China is in the grip of unintended effect of super easy money from our Federal Reserve. Expect a sudden Asian Crisis redux.
    Jan 21 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    Momentum stocks. The ones that are purchased because their price action attracts buyers..on and on.
    Oct 22 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Charlie Munger Thinks Oil Is Absolutely Certain To Become Incredibly Short In Supply [View article]
    Average cost will always be lower than the marginal cost. It's the production at the margin that fundamentally sets the price.
    Sep 8 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shell (RDS.A) has pulled out of talks to acquire a stake in Anadarko Petroleum's (APC) gas discoveries off the coast of Mozambique in East Africa, due to a high price. Instead, Shell will focus on projects off the coasts of Benin, Gabon and South Africa on the other side of the continent. While these projects are more uncertain, they could be more lucrative, as West African prospects tend to provide more oil than gas. [View news story]
    Shell is a horribly bureaucratic company. There is no basis for ANY kind of merger with ANY mid-sized US oil company. Companies like Shell and BP are like socialistic dinosaurs. Maybe they are a bit better now but I doubt it.
    May 29 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shell (RDS.A) has pulled out of talks to acquire a stake in Anadarko Petroleum's (APC) gas discoveries off the coast of Mozambique in East Africa, due to a high price. Instead, Shell will focus on projects off the coasts of Benin, Gabon and South Africa on the other side of the continent. While these projects are more uncertain, they could be more lucrative, as West African prospects tend to provide more oil than gas. [View news story]
    They are more interested in oil.
    May 27 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asness: Shiller P/E Is Signaling Risk Of Another Lost Decade For U.S. Stocks [View article]
    It's possible that we're still in a long "bear" market. They have tendency to last about 17 years. Take a look at my blog on this: "Expect A Lousy Stock Market For Next Decade" http://bit.ly/VtB3gW
    Nov 19 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asness: Shiller P/E Is Signaling Risk Of Another Lost Decade For U.S. Stocks [View article]
    Actually XOM is a pretty good pick--less volatility and good returns.
    Nov 19 06:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Massachusetts ranks first for economic opportunity, a survey from Harvard and Pennsylvania universities shows, while Maryland and Minnesota come in the top five. The study measures unemployment, household income and the ability for residents to increase their income. “The states that invest in their citizens...(have) better economies, which would go counter to the idea that we should strip down the size of government,” says one of the authors of the survey. [View news story]
    It's totally appropriate for government at the State level "invest" in their citizens. That's why schools are funded with local and state money.

    Somehow, transposing this to the Federal level is a huge mistake. Nearly everything the Federal government does is wasteful. The only thing it does even remotely well is writing checks. For example, witness once again the performance of FEMA in NJ. Is it really any better than Katrina? All coastal states should learn once and for all that they have to take care of themselves. FEMA is just another huge waste of money.
    Nov 19 06:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next 10 Years: Much More Misery [View article]
    Bear market's have a tendency to last 17 years if you look back 100 years. So, we're already 13 years into a flat or declining market dating back to a peak in 1999. I may have to change my opinion if the market hits lasting new highs.

    Take a look at my blog showing that we're in for a difficult market going forward--with some graphs that are more convincing:

    http://bit.ly/VtB3gW

    I'd say, stay with a variety of conservative dividend yielding and dividend growth stocks for the rest of this decade (yes, i know they've had a run). Also, add municipal bond funds and a few REIT funds for diversification. It's going to be a low absolute return decade for a number of reasons. Check out the blog.
    Oct 22 04:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards warns stock markets, intoxicated by the mild recovery, are missing the big picture: "Firm evidence is emerging that the global economy is sliding towards a full-blown deflationary episode once this recovery falters... Do bursting global equity valuation bubbles really end like this? Of course they don't."  [View news story]
    It's going to be a close call. The depression scenario would require a faltering recovery and/or more financial turmoil in financial firms. There is much heightened risk of bankruptcies going forward--more so in Europe-- that might represent systemic risk. But these bankruptcies are likely to be contained by governments. Yes, it might be scary to markets but not create a depression. We may have escaped calamity this time, but the next downturn (perhaps later next decade) after governments have racked-up 150 to 200% of GDP in debt might be the one that overwhelms regulators and leaves governments in no position of "stimulating" or "bailing out". It's coming but probably not yet. Doug at douglas_neal@hotmail.com
    Sep 9 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
13 Comments
11 Likes