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Cincinnatus

Cincinnatus
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  • Intel, Google Admit The OEM System Has Broken Down [View article]
    Dana, you don't know what was or what is. I will acknowledge that your bio points out that you're a futurist, which I think means a fortune teller without the beads.

    I have had many compare the smartphone UIs of today with the punchcards of the 1960s. I've learned to ignore them.
    Aug 20, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel, Google Admit The OEM System Has Broken Down [View article]
    Thurber, the iPhone is really orthogonal to the point of the article. What you have is a naively written article that ignores the vertical model has been on the wane since Gene Amdahl produced the first mainframe outside of IBM that ran IBM's software. It's a silly article that says history has reversed not because of Apple, but because of a single Apple product. It's completely ignorant of the fact that Apple recently (in the industry timeline) moved most of it's product lines to the Intel's x86 platform.

    You can go line by line and pull apart the goofy statements in this article. Take this one:
    <<Now the company is increasingly forced to put its own name on hardware, like a watch, in order to juice new markets it needs badly to succeed, like wearables and the Internet of Things.>>

    Intel is not putting it's name on the hardware. You've got to be completely ignorant of Intel's business to claim that. What Intel is doing is working on wearable technologies and a platform for wearable technologies. Nothing they're doing is going to be specific to a particular watch nor will it be branded or marketed by Intel. There is also a lot of overlap between wearables and IoT in general.

    The irony here is that if Dana knew the history he'd know he's claiming the Old World is coming back, not that we're into a new world. Among all the things that he's unaware of, one of them is the Intel Microma digital watch of the 1970s.
    http://n.pr/1NHFn2T
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Intel: Non-Volatile Memory Is Exploding [View article]
    Kevin, overlay this chart onto a Micron chart. The banks don't have anything to do with it.
    http://bit.ly/1TWLh1R
    Aug 19, 2015. 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel, Google Admit The OEM System Has Broken Down [View article]
    The new world is the same as the old world, it's just a matter of recognizing what the world is. Intel is a platform company. It's only superficially a chip company. Curie is just a new platform, following the same formula as prior platforms. The larger trend here that's been going on for a long time is to pull more of the hardware platform Bill-of-Materials into Intel silicon. This started well before the term system-on-a-chip (SoC) became commonplace. SoCs are simply the latest incarnation of that trend.

    Not only did Apple not make the world, they adopted it. Outside of the iPhone and the iPad they are now an Intel x86 platform company.

    The iPhone and iPad are an anomaly only insofar as they currently sport Apple designed (but not manufactured) SoCs. The history of the industry is vertical integration gives way to horizontal integration and I see no argument provided that in general that will reverse, or that the iPhone and iPad won't fall to that trend. The long-term iOS trend is down. The only blip up was provided by a larger screen iPhone, but that's a one time juice, and the trend has resumed to the downside.
    http://bit.ly/1i2qhnT

    The only thing holding in Apple's favor with respect to the iPhone (forget the iPad, it's already sinking fast) are the ASPs. However with the feature and performance gap between the low/mid and high end smartphone segments shrinking the $650 to $700 ASPs aren't going to hold up. Combine that with shrinking market share and a slower growing market and Apple is going to find it hard to sustain the iPhone anomaly.

    Welcome to the world as it's been.
    Aug 19, 2015. 06:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Intel: Non-Volatile Memory Is Exploding [View article]
    "Micron is secretive, tight lipped, and not as bullish as Intel."

    They're as bullish as Intel, but they don't own a platform so they're barred from talking about products through NDAs. Take Intel's Purley platform. Crooke didn't say anything about it at the XPoint announcement. Had Durcan fallen to his knees and cried "I CAN'T HOLD IT IN ANY LONGER, INTEL IS GOING TO USE XPOINT IN THEIR PURLEY PLATFORM!!!" Crooke would have turned into the incredible Hulk, pulled up the first row of seats in the auditorium, and beat Durcan over the head with them until senseless. Durcan can say something about it now, because Intel finally disclosed at IDF that XPoint is the new memory in the Purley platform, but the news is out.

    Same thing with for example Apple. If it were the case that Apple is currently designing in XPoint for a future Mac Pro, and Micron is the source, there isn't a damned thing Micron can say about it. Apple will make the announcement when they're ready.

    The only product Micron has that they could talk about is Micron XPoint SSDs, and if they do so before they're ready with product in volume they run the risk of Osborning their existing SSDs. Of course then you guys would have your knickers in a twist complaining that they've sunk current product sales while customers wait for XPoint SSDs.
    Aug 19, 2015. 05:53 PM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Intel: Non-Volatile Memory Is Exploding [View article]
    Stephen, you're on to us... I mean them.

    They will publish the real numbers after the buyout.
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Intel: Non-Volatile Memory Is Exploding [View article]
    If Intel wanted to buy Micron they would have bought it at $5 and change back when they began commercializing 3D NAND and XPoint.

    There are obviously those that sunk their IRAs into Micron LEAPs and are praying for a quick buyout, but the guys that control the situation are looking long term.
    http://on.wsj.com/1E5vQm8
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:43 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: More On Memory [View article]
    Let's let chucklab answer. I think it will illustrate my point that the whiners that critique the style of the message don't actually understand the message.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: More On Memory [View article]
    Tuckey, that's not even a reference to DRAM.
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Micron: More On Memory [View article]
    chucklab,
    Do you want to provide the context for that? Did you expect him to lie?
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt [View article]
    "All very old references, and from news sources instead of scientific sources."

    Leorex, you're confusing climate and weather. You're also reading from talking points without knowing who you're addressing. More on Phil Jones later, but in the context of climate 2010 and 2011 aren't old. Here's a late 2012 article again with Phil Jones.
    "Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it"
    http://dailym.ai/UYaK2j

    The relevance of the BBC interview is the person giving you the answers is Phil Jones, the guy at the center of the Climategate emails, and in the inner circle of Mann's now discredited hockey stick prediction of 1998. You'll find the hockey stick in figure #3.
    http://bit.ly/1J0tqUJ

    One of the key admissions there in the BBC article is Jones' conceding that the post-industrial warming trends aren't statistically different than the pre-industrial trends.

    The latest IPCC report of 2014 walks back many of the 2007 claims that were used to attempt to lay on heavy carbon taxes at Copenhagen in 2009. Among them was the admission of the Medieval Warm Period being warmer than the present, something that they eliminated in the prior 2007 report.

    We now know the models they used to produce the hockey stick were bogus. We know that because the Climategate emails told us so, but we also now have the empirical data that the projected spike didn't occur. When the empirical evidence doesn't support your thesis your thesis has to be thrown out and you start over.
    http://bbc.in/RyFd6M

    The only relevance this has to Micron, is to point out that a small group of zealous advocates can often get a herd to follow them, without the herd understanding what they're following.
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt [View article]
    Hard to believe that a guy that bought into the Micron hype would also buy into global warming. (I think you missed the memos, we are no longer allowed to call it man-made global warming, or global warming, it's now to be referred to as "climate change" because we all know the climate didn't change until man started changing it.)

    The only consensus is that politicians motivated by the dreams of laying on huge carbon taxes are convinced of it, as well as the Solyndra's looking for government handouts.

    I think one of the most interesting aspects of man-made global warming is that it started even before the industrial revolution.
    http://bbc.in/1UPAZDh

    Of course even the guys at the center of the Climategate scandal now admit there's been no observed warming since the late 1990s and the hockey stick prediction was a fraud.
    http://dailym.ai/AhzHMm
    http://bit.ly/ykjiib

    And then of course there's the unfortunate fact of the Medieval Warm Period with temperatures at or above those of the last Century. Those Viking raiders brought a lot of heavy industry with them into Europe.
    Aug 17, 2015. 06:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Does Not Win From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks, Google Does [View article]
    pk,
    If Chromebooks are replacing anything they're replacing iPads and tablets. They're certainly not replacing Macs or mid to high end PCs. Apple's own numbers for Macs versus iPads would indicate iPads are being cannibalized. Furthermore, the biggest market for Chromebooks is the education market, and it's clear there that Windows notebooks and Chromebooks are replacing iPads and tablets.

    There are parts of both this article and the other article that are in agreement. The problem is this idea of "surging" Chromebooks. The numbers don't support that. Yes if you look at growth rate in isolation, but in terms of PC market share they're still very small. Gartner is predicting only 7.95 million units in 2016.

    Like tablets the Chromebook market is going to plateau rapidly, and at a far smaller market share. Oddly the Gartner report is titled, "Education Is the Primary Opportunity for Chromebook," yet these articles are pulling numbers out of context without making note of Gartner's conclusion. And the Gartner press release doesn't characterize this as a "surge".
    Aug 17, 2015. 02:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Wins From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks [View article]
    "If Intel could pay to make Chromebooks go away I assure you they would."

    Rob, is that what qualifies as marketing research at Podunk U? I can assure you if Intel could get everyone to buy high-end notebooks with Core i7 they'd love it. That's hardly something you need to research. The reality is there are going to be low-end buyers that don't need much more than a Chromebook, so it's strategic that Intel takes over that market.

    Chromebooks aren't new, and that they have only 1.1% of the US business market should tell you something.
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Wins From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks [View article]
    "Exactly right! but that's almost all cannibalization of Macbooks not Ipads."

    So those iPads are really Macbooks in disguise? Who would have thought.

    I didn't forget that Intel sells higher margin chips into Macbooks, but Macbooks aren't what's being displaced. Go look at Apple's results. iPads have been down 20% or so for the last five or six quarters. Macs are up.

    Jul: iPad revenue -23% to $4.5B; units -18%. Mac revenue +9% to $6B; units +9%.
    April: iPad -29% to $5.4B; units -23%. Mac +2% to $5.6B; units +10%.
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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