Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Cincinnatus' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Micron: Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt [View article]
    "All very old references, and from news sources instead of scientific sources."

    Leorex, you're confusing climate and weather. You're also reading from talking points without knowing who you're addressing. More on Phil Jones later, but in the context of climate 2010 and 2011 aren't old. Here's a late 2012 article again with Phil Jones.
    "Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it"

    The relevance of the BBC interview is the person giving you the answers is Phil Jones, the guy at the center of the Climategate emails, and in the inner circle of Mann's now discredited hockey stick prediction of 1998. You'll find the hockey stick in figure #3.

    One of the key admissions there in the BBC article is Jones' conceding that the post-industrial warming trends aren't statistically different than the pre-industrial trends.

    The latest IPCC report of 2014 walks back many of the 2007 claims that were used to attempt to lay on heavy carbon taxes at Copenhagen in 2009. Among them was the admission of the Medieval Warm Period being warmer than the present, something that they eliminated in the prior 2007 report.

    We now know the models they used to produce the hockey stick were bogus. We know that because the Climategate emails told us so, but we also now have the empirical data that the projected spike didn't occur. When the empirical evidence doesn't support your thesis your thesis has to be thrown out and you start over.

    The only relevance this has to Micron, is to point out that a small group of zealous advocates can often get a herd to follow them, without the herd understanding what they're following.
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt [View article]
    Hard to believe that a guy that bought into the Micron hype would also buy into global warming. (I think you missed the memos, we are no longer allowed to call it man-made global warming, or global warming, it's now to be referred to as "climate change" because we all know the climate didn't change until man started changing it.)

    The only consensus is that politicians motivated by the dreams of laying on huge carbon taxes are convinced of it, as well as the Solyndra's looking for government handouts.

    I think one of the most interesting aspects of man-made global warming is that it started even before the industrial revolution.

    Of course even the guys at the center of the Climategate scandal now admit there's been no observed warming since the late 1990s and the hockey stick prediction was a fraud.

    And then of course there's the unfortunate fact of the Medieval Warm Period with temperatures at or above those of the last Century. Those Viking raiders brought a lot of heavy industry with them into Europe.
    Aug 17, 2015. 06:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Does Not Win From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks, Google Does [View article]
    If Chromebooks are replacing anything they're replacing iPads and tablets. They're certainly not replacing Macs or mid to high end PCs. Apple's own numbers for Macs versus iPads would indicate iPads are being cannibalized. Furthermore, the biggest market for Chromebooks is the education market, and it's clear there that Windows notebooks and Chromebooks are replacing iPads and tablets.

    There are parts of both this article and the other article that are in agreement. The problem is this idea of "surging" Chromebooks. The numbers don't support that. Yes if you look at growth rate in isolation, but in terms of PC market share they're still very small. Gartner is predicting only 7.95 million units in 2016.

    Like tablets the Chromebook market is going to plateau rapidly, and at a far smaller market share. Oddly the Gartner report is titled, "Education Is the Primary Opportunity for Chromebook," yet these articles are pulling numbers out of context without making note of Gartner's conclusion. And the Gartner press release doesn't characterize this as a "surge".
    Aug 17, 2015. 02:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Wins From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks [View article]
    "If Intel could pay to make Chromebooks go away I assure you they would."

    Rob, is that what qualifies as marketing research at Podunk U? I can assure you if Intel could get everyone to buy high-end notebooks with Core i7 they'd love it. That's hardly something you need to research. The reality is there are going to be low-end buyers that don't need much more than a Chromebook, so it's strategic that Intel takes over that market.

    Chromebooks aren't new, and that they have only 1.1% of the US business market should tell you something.
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Wins From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks [View article]
    "Exactly right! but that's almost all cannibalization of Macbooks not Ipads."

    So those iPads are really Macbooks in disguise? Who would have thought.

    I didn't forget that Intel sells higher margin chips into Macbooks, but Macbooks aren't what's being displaced. Go look at Apple's results. iPads have been down 20% or so for the last five or six quarters. Macs are up.

    Jul: iPad revenue -23% to $4.5B; units -18%. Mac revenue +9% to $6B; units +9%.
    April: iPad -29% to $5.4B; units -23%. Mac +2% to $5.6B; units +10%.
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Try To Time Micron, Just Buy Now [View article]
    It's also not just Micron. I see the same behavior around Intel, but it's not as pronounced/extreme. There is a lot of talk about if Intel just advertised and marketed better it would drive shares up, and I see it most from those that appear heavily concentrated or leveraged (options).

    A perfect illustration is the comment thread under this comment on a Russ Fischer article from July 1st. You have people that are heavily concentrated and/or leveraged in Micron (and to me they don't seem to understand the business very well) and now they don't want to take any responsibility for what they got themselves into. It's Micron's fault for not being able to predict the future. And they have the gall to claim to be shareholders/investors. If you're heavily concentrated and leveraged and playing the fast-money momentum you're a speculator.
    Aug 17, 2015. 12:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Wins From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks [View article]
    "Los Angeles school district to shift away from Apple's iPad to Windows, Chromebook"
    >> School administrators will be able to select from the Lenovo Yoga Touch, Microsoft's Surface Pro 2, the Dell Latitude E7240 and two Chromebook models. Total cost for the Windows machines are thought to run higher than Apple's iPad, while the Chromebooks will most likely cost less.

    "Students were more comfortable on the laptop because of the amount of writing and the size of the screen. It was really hard to see the whole problem on the iPad." - Principal Carolyn McKnight, East L.A. Performing Arts Magnet

    In addition to diversifying the platform base, some teachers said the iPad does not fit the needs of students taking standardized tests, citing insufficient screen size and the lack of a built-in keyboard as major deficiencies. <<

    Keep up the pump David.
    Aug 17, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Wins From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks [View article]
    Try this.

    Schools aren't buying high-end notebooks for kids. That's nonsense. Chromebooks are replacing expensive iPads. If your kid says tapping away with his index finger on an iPad is all the education he needs then that's your problem.
    Aug 17, 2015. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt [View article]
    rsq, the stock movement has nothing to do with XPoint, nor should you expect it to. I started seeing headlines that DRAM spot prices were at 28 month lows in June. You can look at the chart at the following link to understand why Micron is down.

    If you're investing on XPoint you're investing for the long term, but don't expect it to have much impact over the next four quarters or so.
    Aug 16, 2015. 12:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Wins From Surging Sales Of Chromebooks [View article]
    Rob, no they aren't totally cannibalizing higher end laptops. Try reading the article. What Chromebook is cannibalizing is Apple sales, particularly in the education market. If you can't read the words, at least look at the charts and tables.

    And Intel took over from ARM in Chromebooks quite some time ago. Intel Chromebooks are strategic and they're keeping ARM out of the low-end, as they're designed to do.
    Aug 16, 2015. 12:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Try To Time Micron, Just Buy Now [View article]
    chucklab, it's not Durcan's or the staffs' job to pump the shares. It's their job to run the company for the long-term benefit of shareholders, employees, and the communities in which Micron operates. It's not their job to run the company for the benefit of speculators.

    Whether you're Otellini, Krzanich, or Durcan you know you're going to be a genius and hero when your shares are up, and a villain and scapegoat when they're down. Shortly after Durcan took over the shares went from $5 into a steady climb to $35, so it's idiocy to claim that the reason the shares aren't going up now is because of Durcan.

    The real problem here is you have a fast-money mob of whiners that don't understand the business they bought. One guy even admitted that when he bought into a large position he was unaware that Micron was a commodity DRAM producer, yet that was 68% of revenues in FY2014. Amazingly he thinks between himself and Micron execs that the execs are the incompetent party. You just can't make this stuff up.
    Aug 15, 2015. 01:37 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt [View article]
    Vlad, then what do they gain by paying for Micron's SSD business?
    Aug 15, 2015. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt [View article]
    Ben, saw your comment with respect to Chuckles. I think many of the Intel bulls are also Micron bulls. If you're going to throw around suspicion, you should be looking at those that allege that Micron execs are doing something illegal and calling for them to be imprisoned and for the SEC to get involved in investigating management. If anything will cause Wall St to panic and push the "Sell, Sell, Sell" button and ask questions later it's allegations of management impropriety, particularly from those claiming to be shareholders. Of course I don't think Wall St is paying any attention to this chatter, but it's good entertainment here.

    I don't see any desire from Intel to buy Micron. They already have access to the same IP and they don't need the commodity DRAM business, the SSD business, Automata, etc.. Intel has a long history of working with Micron. The more Micron stock price falls the more likely it becomes an acquisition candidate, which would introduce all sorts of unknowns for Intel if someone takes over Micron.

    If you really want to run with the conspiracy theory game, you might want to put out there that Intel might be inclined to buy up Micron shares in the open market to attempt to support the stock price and prevent a takeover.
    Aug 14, 2015. 03:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside The iPhone 6s And iPhone 6c [View article]
    Vlad, I don't see why they'd need it. Intel's processor design is already superior. The only thing that would be useful to Intel is the comms IP and associated headcount and that's unlikely to be split out. Between the Infineon, Fujitsu, and SiPort acquisitions as well as those exiting Qualcomm for Intel's group in San Diego ( they likely have all they can digest with respect to comms.

    All they'd be buying is another XScale that they'd have to abort at some point.
    Aug 14, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside The iPhone 6s And iPhone 6c [View article]
    Chris, good call on AMD. Buy the peaks.

    If you're a value investor there's nothing in this rumor that should make one buy or sell. QCOM is a long term sell. Intel is a long term buy.

    Apple is going to be subject to the same long-term headwinds that are already impacting Qualcomm.
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment