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Cincinnatus

Cincinnatus
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  • AMD's Financial Analyst Day: What Did We Learn? [View article]
    At the link is my short take on Zen. You're correct in writing the following:

    "I didn't want to hear about Zen's performance per watt ad naseum, or HSA, I wanted to hear confidence in raw CPU performance."

    You didn't want to hear about Zen's performance per watt, and AMD doesn't want to tell you. Of course they don't want to tell you about raw performance either, they want to give you the IPC head fake.
    http://bit.ly/1FfHmf0
    May 11, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    "The target of zen is deliver good enough performance under certain workload, and then save power. That's where they need high IPC. To get good IPC and ~5Ghz of clock frequency, cpu's pipeline depth, issue width, cache structure, and all the others have to be treated carefully."

    shuabrah, you nailed it right there. That's why AMD wants to talk about IPC, and not comparative performance on workloads or performance per watt. They're not going to get a 5GHz clock frequency, and what frequency they get is going to be at high power consumption, so they can't talk about either raw performance or performance per watt. Instead talk about IPC and hope the fans won't notice that they're not talking about realized performance.
    May 11, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Financial Analyst Day: What Did We Learn? [View article]
    "The most reliable information is that which the company releases. Everything else is speculation. To say one shouldn't use their information is pure nonsense."

    TI, regurgitating AMD marketing has no value here. Where you failed is all the speculation you did, much of it being what one would imagine an AMD marketing person would have done if they'd have written for SA. Speculation without analysis and an understanding of the target markets is useless.

    Take my points about the supposed benefits of SkyBridge. They were mostly illusory.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Take your reply to that, which spoke glowingly and with great certainty that HP and motherboard makers would sign up for SkyBridge.

    "Lots of motherboard makers signed up for Jaguar, so they'll sign up for this. HP has a lot of products with Jaguar/Puma too, so they'll sign up. I'm not sure how much the ARM side adds to it though, but Puma is so good, it will ensure there's a good supply of parts, just as there is now. ARM just gets a free ride, more or less. But, is it really going to sell well? That's not as clear to me. Intel's inferior technology is still be assisted by contra-revenue, and that makes it hard for AMD's superior technology to win. It's a pity Intel can't actually develop good products there, but they just aren't smart enough."

    That's but one example of many. I wouldn't say it's analysis so much as just blind conjecture on your part that is an extension of that which AMD marketing puts out.
    May 11, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Financial Analyst Day: What Did We Learn? [View article]
    "No reason to be bitter or angry about me reporting what a company says, and says is part of their roadmap, that's what I'm supposed to do."

    That's not what you're supposed to do, nor is that what you claimed to be doing. The whole point of doing analysis is to separate what a company says from what's likely to happen. If you understood what was going on you'd have held out little hope that 20nm or SkyBridge was going to happen, even if they'd actually been on the 2015 roadmap. You shouldn't have need the roadmap to figure that out, and again you misinterpreted even the roadmap they presented.
    May 10, 2015. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Second Half Guidance Seems Unrealistic: Zen Will Not Topple Skylake [View article]
    You've got to love AMD powerpoint. So they're promising 40% better IPC from Excavator which they announced back in late 2011 but don't have out yet in 2015.

    So you've got powerpoint performance gains on top of four year old powerpoint performance gains. It doesn't get any sillier.

    Here's what AMD doesn't want you to know:
    a) It's about performance per watt, not IPC. It's a red flag that they've shifted to talking about IPC with Zen, and not performance per watt. IPC gains aren't difficult, particularly when your baseline is something you announced four years ago.

    b) They don't have a process. Samsung and TSMC are focused on low power, lower frequency, higher density smartphone processes. GlobalFoundries is simply licensing Samsung's 20nm FinFET process (which they call 14nm). They're not focused on developing a high performance process to compete with Intel on performance.

    c) AMD told you they weren't going to go toe-to-toe with Intel on performance years ago. Now they flip-flop and tell you they're going to go toe-to-toe with Intel on performance, when they can't deliver designs and they don't have the process technology to compete with Intel. They're in much worse shape than they were in 2011 when they decided the direction they've now just announced they're returning to wasn't feasible.

    I used to think the nonsense was being driven by Rory Read. Now I think Lisa Su was behind it all along.
    May 10, 2015. 04:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Financial Analyst Day: What Did We Learn? [View article]
    "I report what AMD reports. I was correct in reporting that AMD had planned to put out 20nm parts on Skybridge, because that's what they were planning. "

    TI, in general I agree that you simply regurgitate AMD powerpoint slides and marketing statements.

    However in this case that's not what they were planning. Go back and look at the discussion because we were talking about their November investors' meeting and they had already pulled 20nm from their roadmap, and SkyBridge likewise wasn't on a committed roadmap. All they had is a slide on Project SkyBridge without a committed timeframe.

    I think you should focus on toaster ovens and washing machines. Perhaps that's an industry you'll be able to figure out.
    May 10, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Financial Analyst Day: What Did We Learn? [View article]
    It would be nice to read what Hei4me wrote, but TI is working the report abuse button until it's white hot and the SA censors are doing what they can to help him out.
    May 10, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Financial Analyst Day: What Did We Learn? [View article]
    "In fact, Intel's core processors are a step above mediocre, but certainly nothing great compared to IBM's POWER8 line. POWER8 absolutely destroys it in performance. In the low-end, Bay Trail, et al, are miserable little processors, far inferior to AMD's "cat" line. Who had more development resources."

    TI, and yet Intel's market share keeps rising, and AMD's and IBM's keeps falling. If reality were anywhere near close to what you've been promoting the past few years would have been quite different.

    http://bit.ly/1KVkJeC

    Bay Trail destroyed AMD's value and entry PC market share because it was far superior to what AMD has, and now we have Cherry Trail already coming on the market.

    You're living in a fictional world.
    May 10, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Financial Analyst Day: What Did We Learn? [View article]
    Technology Investing, what we learned is that in your past articles you didn't have a clue.

    Gems like this are plentiful in your past writings:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    "For one, AMD will be moving Puma to 20nm in 2015, didn't you know that? You haven't heart of Project Skybridge? Do you need a link? "

    The best line from your article is this:
    "After hearing so much nonsense for so long, and the improper emphasis on things that don't matter, I came out of this feeling much better about the company."

    That's called Stockholm Syndrome. Affection for one's abuser.

    Go back and read your lectures on what you thought you understood and the certainty you had in 20nm and SkyBridge. You still don't get why you were wrong and you're buying the same hype.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 10, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel launches high-end Xeon server CPUs, eyes further share gains [View news story]
    Return,
    ARM has gone nowhere in five years. SPARC and Power are dying. 14 quarters of decline in non-x86 servers, and IBM is most of that with about a 20% YoY decline rate.

    http://bit.ly/1KTwKkH

    Here's a comparison with pricing info. It's not hard to see why Power is dying when you look at the performance per dollar and per watt. The only buyers of Power 8 are those already locked into the Power architecture due to prior hardware and software investments.

    "Intel Corporation's Xeon E7 v3 Takes On IBM's POWER 8"
    http://bit.ly/1FVZzwZ
    May 9, 2015. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean -3.6% despite strong Q1 on buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news [View news story]
    Chris, you seem to have trouble remembering what you've said.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 8, 2015. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD sets 2H15 guidance, unveils new CPUs, offers ambitious roadmap [View news story]
    You don't have to recall it, the benefits you claimed are noted in that thread.

    The question was whether or not it would be in 2015, not whether or not they'd drop it. I didn't predict they'd drop it completely. I just said it wouldn't be released in 2015 and the concept was dumb and provided no benefit to the customer.

    I'd say these new slides are snazzy as well and some are going to buy into this again. History repeats.
    May 8, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Left-leaning party sweeps to power in Canada‚Äôs oil-rich Alberta [View news story]
    grisly, we're raising your tax rate 20% starting immediately. After reviewing your profile we think you're trying to become too wealthy on the backs of fellow investors. Hopefully this move will curtail your activities.
    May 7, 2015. 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD sets 2H15 guidance, unveils new CPUs, offers ambitious roadmap [View news story]
    gofx,
    One thing you can always bet on is when AMD fails the fans will always poo-poo the benefits of what they formerly found compelling and as necessary for an assault on Intel.

    http://bit.ly/1F0ZxmA

    It wasn't difficult to call this one earlier.
    May 7, 2015. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Microsoft HoloLens And Windows Phone [View article]
    Bruce,
    The change is to go to a subscription model for Windows. The OS will still evolve as it has in the past. If you have an Android phone you probably just recently were updated to the 5.0 Lollipop release. It'll be like that for Windows.
    http://bit.ly/1F0SZV1
    May 7, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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