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  • The Street Abandons ChannelAdvisor In Droves [View article]
    Good insights into ECOM biz model. It is interesting to see that management was surprised at the shift and its impact on the revenue and margin. I think stock offers good risk reward at current levels.

    ANGI may not be a good comp though it is an ecommerce / platform provider (as you have pointed out) but its biz model is very different than ECOM. I think ECOM provides a valuable and sticky service for sellers. ANGI biz model is questionable and not sustainable with competitors like Yelp and homeadvisor offering similar services for free.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: As Alibaba Goes Public, Value Of Underlying Business Will Begin To Shine [View article]
    Good to see a detailed analysis using correct assumptions about tax, etc. Is there a discrepancy with the cash/share on the balance sheet? 10K shows cash and cash equivalent of approximately $3.4 billion implying a net cash/share of $2.2 after deducting $1.1 billion of debt. Here is the link for the Balance sheet in 10K.

    Update: the discrepancy may be that your calculation also includes long term investments of $1.6 billion. These are probably liquid investments as well.
    Mar 31, 2014. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley has 44 stocks on its radar as takeover targets [View news story]
    Does any one know the title and date of the Morgan Stanley report that discusses these take over targets?
    Mar 25, 2014. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Guess Where The Value Is Hiding?, Groupon Or RetailMeNot? [View article]
    Valuation based on gross revenue is just one of the metric. A more interesting analysis and comparison would be looking deeper into their business model, operating leverage, and earnings potential to really figure out the relative valuation.
    Mar 11, 2014. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FireEye's Game-Changing Acquisition Of Mandiant Makes It An Ideal Long-Term Buy [View article]
    This stock continues to defy gravity and trades at over 25x EV/Sales for 2014 estimates. What is getting investors so excited about this stock?
    Mar 5, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jive Software Yet To Turn In A Profitable Year [View article]
    this is a good summary of their earnings. What do you think about the future prospects of this company and the social software market?
    Feb 18, 2014. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ServiceNow's Market Cap Has Gotten Ahead Of Its Future Growth Story [View article]
    Adam, nice article. NOW had good earnings and the stock was up to as high as over $70 today. The stock is probably insanely expensive at current levels but shorting on valuation alone doesn't work. I want to wait until their growth starts decelerating.

    It would be interesting to hear your puts and takes from their earnings call.
    Jan 30, 2014. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WIX Need Some Fix Before Next Leg Of Growth [View article]
    Please elaborate on accessing JPM reports on BB via CN
    Jan 21, 2014. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva: 'Back To School' [View article]
    I heard that Canaccord also defended the stock yesterday. They said that losing Genentech as a customer has no impact on forward estimates and recommends buying on the weakness.
    Jan 16, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva's #1 Biopharma Customer CRM Contract Loss: A Red Flag Like No Other [View article]
    Suhail, thanks again for another excellent follow up on your idea. It is working very well.
    There should be another big leg down when the lock up expiration comes up. No?
    Jan 15, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Split Could Doom MasterCard [View article]
    Agree, I have seen better and more thoughtful articles from Stonefox.

    Stock split's haven't been a common phenomenon lately and companies announcing stock splits in current environment are doing more diligence on such decisions. I consider it a a bullish signal and a sign of management's confidence in Company's growth. That said, the stock does look expensive unless estimates go up materially.
    Jan 14, 2014. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ServiceNow: Widespread Mistakes In Analyst Share Counts Fuel Overvaluation [View article]
    Congratulations on good performance. Media reports suggest that most funds did not do well on their shorts this year in a strong market.

    NOW does look expensive and I wouldn't be surprised if the valuation is much lower somewhere down the road. A consistent message that I have heard from experts is that never short a stock on valuation. I didn't see any compelling arguments against their business model, products, sales practices, revenue recognition, etc. that would point to growth deceleration.

    One risk with shorting such high growth companies is that market continues to reward them on delivering top line growth and ever expanding TAM. CRM is one such example.

    I am not convinced that NOW is the next CRM. But I will wait to short until I see a solid analysis like short VEEV (from Suhail Capital).
    Jan 13, 2014. 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ServiceNow: Widespread Mistakes In Analyst Share Counts Fuel Overvaluation [View article]
    Two initiation reports (from 2012) from MS and Citi research reports had diluted share counts going up to 165+ in FY2014. Agree that current year share count may be misleading but I don't believe professional investors rely completely on sell-side models and make such amateur mistakes of overlooking sharecount.

    Your argument about websites like Yahoo, etc. having incorrect share count is another story -- and this is true for most IPOs and not just NOW. For example, Yahoo shows TWTR's share count at 545M where as the correct number is slightly over 700M -- and professional investors are aware of it.

    All that said about share count, I do agree that NOW is expensive and probably a good short candidate. This market seems to be rewarding top line growth without paying attention to the bottom line. Bulls may have their day until cracks appear in their growth story or flaws are discovered in their TAM estimates / competitive landscape, etc.
    Jan 10, 2014. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Bank Stock With 50% Upside Potential, More Appealing To Me Than Bank Of America [View article]
    This is a microcap stock so definitely under followed and may be a good pick. I don't agree with your bullet item on share price below:
    "An inexpensive stock to buy with a share price of $5.63 as of 1/3/2014."
    Shares represent fractional ownership in the business and the price is a function of outstanding shares. I wouldn't consider the low share price as a key driver to buy any stock.
    Jan 6, 2014. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xoom Focuses On International Expansion [View article]
    Good analysis and I have heard that XOOM does provide frictionless money transfer service. But the stock trades at lofty valuation of 6x revenue and 80x PE estimates for next year. Their peers trade at <2x revenue though bulls will defend using faster growth rate.
    Dec 26, 2013. 01:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment