User 486211

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  • Is Lumber Liquidators Still A Viable Short? Or Is It A Promising Long?  [View article]
    "I find myself believing the case against LL is overstated as Whitney Tilson's endless tirade of articles begin to contain less facts and more hype."

    Apr 17, 2015. 12:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comments On Lumber Liquidators' First Quarter Business Update  [View article]

    Excellent point!
    Apr 6, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Answering Questions About Lumber Liquidators  [View article]
    The author said on 3/12/15 on SA that..."Going forward, I am going to lower my public profile and allocate my time elsewhere.". We can easily count how many articles he has written about LL since then.

    Mar 30, 2015. 02:26 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Explaining Lumber Liquidators' Reckless Strategy, And Rebutting Its Claims About Deconstructive Testing  [View article]
    It is really hard to strike a balance between a big short seller and a concerned citizen for the whole society at the same time.......In the past I had had good respect for Mr. Tilson's analytical caliber.........But in this case he is too much tilted to his big short interest.......Really don't know whom to believe now, LL or WT? .........But eventually the truth will prevail!
    Mar 15, 2015. 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Is Unlikely In 2015  [View article]
    Having been following SA articles for many years, as far as Macro Economy and Bull/Bear Market Cycle analysis are concerned, you just need to read the articles from the following three contributors:

    Jeff Miller, California Beach Pundit and James A. Kostohryz.

    C.T. Wu, PhD
    Chief Investment Officer
    Harmonic Growth Capital Management, LLC.
    Santa Clara, CA
    Mar 13, 2015. 12:49 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short 60 Minutes And Whitney Tilson And Long Lumber Liquidators  [View article]
    "Tilson would have been more genuine if he made his claims without setting himself up to profit off the hysteria and 60M has a track record of incomplete reporting in the pursuit of ratings, so neither source is pure."

    Mar 12, 2015. 12:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Think Michael Kors Is Significantly Undervalued  [View article]
    COH offers roughly 4% dividend....KORS? 0%....I own both stocks....
    Mar 11, 2015. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Pitfalls Of Using Beta As A Measure Of Risk  [View article]
    Thanks a lot for the clarification!
    May 8, 2014. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The 2013 Review Of What Was Hot And What Was Not  [View article]
    No. 1 on Quality and Accuracy!

    Thanks! Dr. Miller.
    Dec 22, 2013. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Warren, About IBM...  [View article]
    Excellent points.....No wonder Warren Buffett never responded to the author......
    Nov 29, 2013. 07:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: My Take On The Earnings Report  [View article]

    With the same HW SKU, OEM's can offer two products, i.e., one being a cheap Android only tablet, and the other one being the more expensive Android+Win8. This is a huge advantage for OEM's to save cost and be more flexible to meet different market demands, and thus more willing to adopt Intel's new chip-sets.
    Jul 18, 2013. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apollo: Unattractive Risk-Reward Proposition  [View article]

    Your FCF TTM and Revenue TTM chart are very useful and provide very good basis for future worst case scenario analysis.

    If APOL's annual revenue bottoms out at the $3B level, that is in the same ballpark like they did in 2008, and they generated roughly $600M FCF back then. So a conservative forecast of FCF at $3B level annual revenue in the future should be in the $400-500M range. Please bear in mind that APOL's current FCF is negatively impacted by the huge restructuring expenses during 2012-2013.

    I am quite impressed by your analysis work on APOL and please continue to keep us posted on your new works. Thanks!

    Jul 15, 2013. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apollo: Unattractive Risk-Reward Proposition  [View article]

    Thanks for the insightful analysis! Like you, APOL is also on my select long list.

    The logic is pretty simple, if their revenue bottoms at $3B level like they did in 2008, their FCF should be around $600M, but let's make a conservative estimate of $500M only. Then its current enterprise value is only 2.5 times of the $500M FCF. The interim FCF figures are lower because of one-time restructuring charges.

    By the way, what is MOOC?

    Jul 15, 2013. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apollo: Unattractive Risk-Reward Proposition  [View article]
    If the revenue is reduced by $550M, the FCF reduction is approximately $550M x operating margin. Otherwise, if the company's revenue drops to zero, the FCF reduction will be over $3B according to your logic.
    Jul 15, 2013. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Interest Rates Don't Necessarily Mean Lower Equity Prices  [View article]
    Such a brilliant remark! Thanks!

    "In conclusion, one of the most difficult aspects of finance and economics is that most models are "multi-variable" and depending on the market conditions one factor may carry more weight than another, and those weights change over time and environments...."

    Jul 8, 2013. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment