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User 486211

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  • On The Pitfalls Of Using Beta As A Measure Of Risk [View article]
    Thanks a lot for the clarification!
    May 8 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The 2013 Review Of What Was Hot And What Was Not [View article]
    No. 1 on Quality and Accuracy!

    Thanks! Dr. Miller.
    Dec 22 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Warren, About IBM... [View article]
    Excellent points.....No wonder Warren Buffett never responded to the author......
    Nov 29 07:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: My Take On The Earnings Report [View article]
    Flux8,

    With the same HW SKU, OEM's can offer two products, i.e., one being a cheap Android only tablet, and the other one being the more expensive Android+Win8. This is a huge advantage for OEM's to save cost and be more flexible to meet different market demands, and thus more willing to adopt Intel's new chip-sets.
    Jul 18 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apollo: Unattractive Risk-Reward Proposition [View article]
    Brian,

    Your FCF TTM and Revenue TTM chart are very useful and provide very good basis for future worst case scenario analysis.

    If APOL's annual revenue bottoms out at the $3B level, that is in the same ballpark like they did in 2008, and they generated roughly $600M FCF back then. So a conservative forecast of FCF at $3B level annual revenue in the future should be in the $400-500M range. Please bear in mind that APOL's current FCF is negatively impacted by the huge restructuring expenses during 2012-2013.

    I am quite impressed by your analysis work on APOL and please continue to keep us posted on your new works. Thanks!

    CT
    Jul 15 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apollo: Unattractive Risk-Reward Proposition [View article]
    Justin,

    Thanks for the insightful analysis! Like you, APOL is also on my select long list.

    The logic is pretty simple, if their revenue bottoms at $3B level like they did in 2008, their FCF should be around $600M, but let's make a conservative estimate of $500M only. Then its current enterprise value is only 2.5 times of the $500M FCF. The interim FCF figures are lower because of one-time restructuring charges.

    By the way, what is MOOC?

    CT
    Jul 15 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apollo: Unattractive Risk-Reward Proposition [View article]
    If the revenue is reduced by $550M, the FCF reduction is approximately $550M x operating margin. Otherwise, if the company's revenue drops to zero, the FCF reduction will be over $3B according to your logic.
    Jul 15 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Interest Rates Don't Necessarily Mean Lower Equity Prices [View article]
    Robert,
    Such a brilliant remark! Thanks!

    "In conclusion, one of the most difficult aspects of finance and economics is that most models are "multi-variable" and depending on the market conditions one factor may carry more weight than another, and those weights change over time and environments...."

    CT
    Jul 8 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Bond Yields Risen Too Much? [View article]
    A truly awesome article on the subject! So insightful and concise. Really Appreciate it!

    CT
    Jul 1 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Beta In The Bond Market: Avoid Bonds [View article]
    Doug,

    Could you kindly elaborate on how BVR Model works?

    CT
    Jun 30 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technology Stock Investing - Keys To Success [View article]
    A great inaugurating article for SA! Welcome to the board!
    Jun 27 08:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does IBM Stack Up? [View article]
    Excellent points and very revealing!
    Jun 22 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Don't Love HP In 2013 [View article]
    The Dupont ROE Formula was a great one to analyze comparative company performances. However, it also could result in "Garbage-in-Garbage-out" situations.

    HP in 2012 had an improvement in Asset Turnover and Equity Multiplier, which is good. But its Net Profit Margin of -10.51% was due to two large one-time write-offs, or roughly $19 B altogether which should be adjusted in the ROE trend analysis.

    CT
    Jun 22 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Be Scared Witless? [View article]
    A fantastic article! So succinct and so timely! Dr. Miller did it again! Really appreciate this great piece of work at a critical juncture of time amid market turmoil!

    CT
    Jun 21 12:53 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Reasons Hewlett-Packard's Recent Run Is A False Dawn [View article]
    You asked excellent questions!

    CT
    May 7 03:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
51 Comments
74 Likes