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User 486211

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  • How Healthy Is Hewlett-Packard's Financial Condition? [View article]
    In the most recent conference call, HP's CFO stated that HP will be essentially debt-free by EOY2013, because a good portion of HP's long-term debt is from HP Finance Corp.

    HP Finance borrows money at very low interest rates from the banks and then lease out HP equipment to the corporate customers at higher interest rates, and the credit rating of those corporate customers are generally very good. So this kind of debt is generally collateralized by customer assets and basically a debt pass-through, which is not the same kind of debt that HP borrows from the banks to buy new properties or build new plants.
    Apr 9 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Downgraded By JP Morgan After ETF Falls 12% [View article]
    Percentage wise, US has much lower corporate fraud rate compared to China. It is simply that US has a much longer history in operating a free market system and financial market. It will take many years for China to catch up, until then, the risk due to fraud is much higher compared to US.
    Mar 20 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Downgraded By JP Morgan After ETF Falls 12% [View article]
    Why people want to invest in a country that frauds are everywhere? Government GDP figures, corporate earnings and assets, etc.

    Caterpillar just recently wrote off more than $600M for a China-based factory that was traded in HK Stock Exchange, because they later on found most of the reported assets were just non-existing.

    I lost more than 80% of my investment in a NYSE-listed Chinese education service company (CEU) which later on was found to be a fraud and de-listed, just one among 30+ fraudulent Chinese companies listed in the US in the past two years.

    It will be many years for China-based companies to have transparent corporate governance and sincere management integrity. Until then, I will not make a dime of investment in China related stocks.

    C.T. Wu, PhD
    Mar 19 02:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is IBM A Promising Dividend Stock? [View article]
    A better way to gauge a stock's potential is to use the "Total Return" framework, i.e., annual dividend yield + annual EPS growth rate, rather than a minimum fixed dividend yield requirement. Otherwise, Warren Buffett wouldn't be the No. 1 holder of IBM stock now.

    IBM's superior free cash flow generation capability enables it to continue to engage in sizable stock buybacks, which in turn will trigger superior EPS growth rates better than its peers. Thus the capital appreciation prospect for IBM is better than the market average.

    To judge a stock's prospect, it is better off to look at both the dividend yield and the capital appreciation potential, not just the dividend alone. The author bought IBM at $80 in early 2009 via this Total Return framework and made a fairly good return on IBM, Buffett started to invest in IBM in early 2011 and now is the No. 1 shareholder of IBM.

    C.T. Wu, PhD
    Mar 18 04:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing The Macro-Markets Risk Index [View article]
    James,

    Bravo! You continue to amaze us! Thanks!
    Mar 11 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross Likes The 5 Year Treasury. Here's Why. [View article]
    It should be "0.19 x 3.9 you get 0.74%".
    Jan 13 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Best Recovery Plan: Ignore The Analysts [View article]
    Adam,

    This is the most sensible article about HPQ that I have read in the past two months!

    Judging from a Business Model Optimization perspective, a field that I have been doing active research during the past 20 years, Meg Whitman is doing all the right things. The PC and Printing business are virtually already spun off because Whitman assigned a very capable executive to run it so she can focus on fixing the Service and Autonomy part. And the PC+Printing business will continue to be cash cows for the company, to support the needed capital for the enterprise units, on top of the purchasing power synergy.

    I bought a lot of 2014 HPQ Long Calls when HPQ dropped to $11.35, and that investment has already more than doubled in 3 weeks.

    Most analysts are not insightful in their analysis, and tend to just echo the market sentiments rather than providing professional guidance's.

    Look forward to reading more of your insightful articles!

    CT
    Dec 10 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull Market In Bad Predictions [View article]
    Lance Robert created a new ratio (= coincident economic indicators index / leading economic indicators index) and claimed that if this ratio drops below a threshold, recession is almost certain to occur. Nothing could be further false from this formula.

    For example, if the coincident index declined a little bit, but the leading index rose sharply, then the ratio would drop a lot, but the economy actually is on the improvement track due to improving leading index which predicts better economic situations a few months down the road.

    It's amazing why Dr. Hussman didn't see the big flaw in an economic context as implied by this simple formula.
    Dec 5 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Distressed Investing 101 [View article]
    Agree! A real sane article about HP!
    Nov 21 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charts: 10 Reasons to Expect A Year-End Stock Rally (Part 1) [View article]
    Lou,

    Thanks so much for your insightful analysis! Points well taken!

    CT
    Nov 1 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Too Speculative For My Taste [View article]
    Very insightful notes! Thanks!
    Oct 21 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: High Hopes For Housing [View article]
    Dr. Miller,

    Your weekly articles are the cream-of-crops among Seekingalpha's. Thanks for your generous sharing of your hard earned insights!

    CT
    Sep 18 02:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP Has $20 Written All Over It... Again [View article]
    Very insightful points! Thanks!
    Sep 13 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP May Have Just Hit Bottom [View article]
    Adam,

    Very good analysis! Really enjoyed it!

    CT
    Sep 12 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TTCM's Rebuttal To WSJ Article- “Why Stocks Are Riskier Than You Think”  [View instapost]
    Tim,

    This is really an awsome article! Thanks!

    CT
    Sep 11 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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