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joro_ianev

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  • Windows 8 Fail: Intel Is Dead Money [View article]
    The basic premise of this article - that Intel is dead money because it failed in mobile, which is killing the PC - is flawed on many fronts, but let me focus on just one. Let's remember 2008 in automotive. Annual sales rates has dropped down to about 9 million vehicles from 18 million in prior years. Had you looked at that trend the same way the author looks at Intel now, you would think the annual sales rate would drop down to 4.5 million, right? Reality though was very different - the rate went up to 15 million. Same thing will happen with the PC - there is massive pent up demand in enterprise.
    Aug 26 03:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline regulation: The barn door is already open [View news story]
    "Years of deregulation may have backfired for consumers as fares continue to soar and local markets shrink to a few carrier choices, according an op-ed piece in The New York Times from Joe Nocera."

    Really? We will blame deregulation?!? How about blaming actually the opposite - overt regulation of the industry that is putting barrier to entry. Also, how about NSA and the ever-increasing airport fees? Those make up almost 50% of the ticket's price these days.
    Aug 17 03:06 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone: Be Ready For The Fall [View article]
    "The Fed could also start tapering its massive ($85 billion a month) Treasuries and mortgage-backed asset purchase program at any time, depending on the state of the economy. It seems probable that the tapering will start this fall, maybe as soon as September. If that happens and budget negotiations drag, the US stocks will go down, investors will be nervous and the European markets will likely suffer from the ripple effects."

    First off, it helps to mention here that the stock market has been on a tear late 2013 and YTD 2013 due to the extra liquidity from the Fed. Correction can occur at any time. In fact, the longer the Fed continues the QE, the longer the current asset bubble will inflate and the more painful the 'pop' will be when it eventually occurs.

    Second, let's be real: the Fed cannot stop QE in September. We in the US cannot be responsible to cut our spending. And tax burden is already high enough, so don't look at the revenue side to close the gap anytime soon. Unless the Fed continues to buy Treasuries and MBS, interest rates will shoot up and everyone will start whining (and we are tremendous whiners) and blame the politicians. Can you imagine, for the moment, the pressure on the Fed to 'act'? QE is here to stay, for years. They will find culprits to continue the program (low inflation, high unemployment, etc.)
    Aug 12 03:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fusion-Io's Full Of Excuses, But Where's The Execution? [View article]
    Ashraf, seems like a month ago you wrote an article calling for a 34% upside in FIO. That didn't happen. Now you are saving grace with: more pain coming if a catalyst doesn't develop. That covers all possibilities, doesn't it? :-)
    Aug 10 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Some Serious Red Flags [View article]
    Azazel,

    On inventory: expect it to always go up before SKU introductions - the company has to build inventory before releasing into the channel.

    On AR: +25M is 4% Q/Q; sales went up 8%. So, what's the worry here?

    On AP: this goes hand in hand with increasing inventory; i.e. you have to purchase the components from your vendors before you sell your products into the channel. In fact, you should be HAPPY AMD increased the AP - it means it is actively managing its cash conversion cycle.

    On OpEx: this was addressed in the CC. OpEx is estimated at $450M. OpEx is typically fairly easy to forecast, so I don't anticipate huge surprises there.
    Jul 20 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Some Serious Red Flags [View article]
    Ashraf,

    I continue to be convinced you are negatively biased against AMD. You also should at least have listened to the conference call and incorporated (or counter-argued) AMD's disclosures. Here are some excerpts for you from Rory:

    "Revenue of $1.16 billion was higher than our guidance as strong demand helped drive sequential unit shipment increases and market share gains across both of our business segments."

    "Our traditional PC business is heading into the typically stronger second half of the year with a competitive portfolio of new products and strong mobile design wins, particularly persistent in the $300 to $600 sweet spot of the market. Many of these systems will be the first to bring touch capabilities down into the mainstream price points, where AMD has traditionally been the most successful. We remain on track to deliver more than 20% of our revenue from our semi-custom and embedded businesses in the fourth quarter. With growth in the second half of the year primarily coming from our semicustom SoC products for both the Sony and Microsoft next generation game consoles."
    Jul 19 11:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Some Serious Red Flags [View article]
    Ashraf,

    You are forgetting the cannibalization of the low-end GPUs by integrating the GPU into the CPU silicon (i.e. a shift from GPU division to Computing Solutions). It will have an effect when you compare sales by division Y-Y.

    AMD, on the GPU side, has a harder time convincing OEMs to put its GPUs into Intel CPU machines despite the fact that its GPUs are equal to what Nvidia offers.

    You are also making a general statement that PC gaming is expanding, hinting that sales of GPUs are growing. What data you are basing that conclusion on?
    Jul 19 11:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nokia Going Into The Camera Market? [View article]
    If only I earned 1c every time I heard the 'Nokia needs to make an Android phone' argument. Some people just cannot see further than today. If Android is 40% of market today, it must be 40% of the market tomorrow, right? If that were the case, Symbian will still rule the land. But it doesn't, does it?

    Nokia adopted a smart strategy. It focused on creating fun phones that appeal to consumers. Microsoft became a huge ally and a source of cash. There was real differentiation because few others were developing Windows phones. The strategy is working. Why spend the extra resources to develop for another operating system?
    Jul 16 02:15 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's hard to buy something down 80%," writes Mebane Faber, but it may not be a bad time to do just that. The average 3-year return since 1920 when buying a sector lower by 80% from a peak is 172%, according to his research - think tech in 2002, homebuilders in 2009, and junior gold miners (GDXJ) today (gold miners GDX or RING are off nearly that amount). The returns are similarly enticing for entire industries and countries - think Greece (GREK) today. [View news story]
    Papa Jupiter,

    You can say "No intrinsic value outside of possessing it and adoring it" for art, books, horses, house pets, children, etc. Heck, you can include just about anything being bought and sold. A large house will set you back $12M in New York, while the same house will be worth $1M in Detroit. So is the NY house worth $12M unless you are a blushing NY bride who needs to feel special, despite the illogical cost?

    All things are worth at exactly the value others perceive them to be. Period.
    Jun 27 12:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's New Server Chip: Buy The Stock, But Not The Hype [View article]
    Ashraf,

    Intel's dominance in servers and CPUs is already reflected in its market cap versus AMD's market cap. Your dislike of AMD as a company and as a stock versus Intel and Nvidia is also well-known. For some reason you think Nvidia is in a better strategic position, which not many otherwise share.
    Jun 18 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
    Outdated and disproved economic theory? Really?!? By whom? By you Keynesian blokes?
    Jun 13 08:52 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Above Average Performing U.S. Growth Firms At Bargain To Reasonable Valuation Multiples [View article]
    Good article. Please fix the bad ticker for Fossil Group (the correct ticker is FOSL).
    Jun 3 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A bankruptcy judge approves $6.9M in bonuses for Patriot Coal (PCXCQ.OB) executives and workers, overruling the objection of union members who face wage and benefit cuts. Patriot and the United Mine Workers union still await a ruling from the judge over whether the company can impose wage and benefit cuts upon its union workers and retirees. [View news story]
    I wish people will read prior to leaving comments. The snippet is misleading. Of course, the union lovers don't care about the details, but the headline, as that's really what suits them.
    May 29 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Hopes ARM Can Save It [View article]
    Dana, another bad article from you. No surprise there. But please keep writing them as I learn quite a bit from the commentary people leave.
    Apr 25 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Approaching The Fiscal Cliff As A Nash Equilibrium [View article]
    Tom Armistead,

    "Libertarians are a strange and perverse subset of the far right."

    Comments like this show you to be an absolute fool. Although your picture shows you to have gone through a few decades none of that time has made you any wiser on how the macro economy works. If high taxes and a spending binge created 'wealth' then Greece won't be bankrupt with a grey economy three times the size of the taxable economy. And as others pointed out, many other countries have tried the socialist model and its class warfare, and the results have been universally the same - lower living standards for all.

    We have become morally bankrupt as a country. Fiscal cliff is just a diversion of the class warfare going on right now against the makers versus the takers. Government workers, many earning significantly above the makers on whose backs they live, are left off the whole debate. Our spending on defense is ludicrous on any measure. We talk about 'democracy', yet are comfortable exempting 47% of the population from paying for stuff they get a say on. Moral hazard, maybe? We also, naively, meddle constantly in the economy by paying people not to farm, by protecting them from losses, by creating monopolies (utilities), by increasing taxes via government regulation (10% ethanol, mandates on 'clean sources', etc.), by subsidizing certain classes and population groups (all our loan modification programs, bank 'settlements', etc.), and so on. It is a long list.

    Anyway, it seems we have lost a capacity to think clearly on what an economy is and to hold every member of our society responsible for action s/he takes. There is no free lunch in nature; yet we have created plenty of those around. Someone will send us the bill. Really soon. But hey, don't let me spoil your socialist fun parade.
    Dec 31 11:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
378 Comments
796 Likes