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Zongi

Zongi
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  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Meaning you have nothing to say about the actual facts I stated.
    Apr 8 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Come on, this time you've really taken things too far:
    Mr. Ford actually said what he did about black Model T's in 1909 - 8 years before he started building the Rouge. Furthermore, it had nothing to do with the limitations of the Rouge but rather a lack of foresight on Mr. Ford's part - he wasn't perfect, just like any other person.
    It took about 10 years to build the Rouge between 1917-1928. How can you compare that to building the Gigafactory in 201x?
    The Rouge was an amazing demonstration of foresight and a prime example of vertical integration. I'm ready to compare Musk and Henry Ford or Tesla of 2014 and The Ford Motor Company of the beginning of the 20th century any day.
    By the way, being a prime example of vertical integration didn't prevent the Rouge from producing many different products, starting with Eagle Boats for WWI, through Fordson tractors and ending with many different Ford car models, including Model T's, Model A's, Mustangs and many others. It kept working until the year 2004.
    And I'm not an expert on car manufacturing - just got this information in a 5 minutes Internet search - what does that say about your article?
    PS: Resorting to 2-cent technical analysis is really a lame bear-raid tactic. Leave the technical analysis to the technical analysts next time and stick to what you really know about.
    Apr 8 09:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla's 'Not A Recall' Victory Will Crush Q1 Earnings [View article]
    I wasn't actually comparing Tesla and Axion. I was just pointing out that overlaying two charts because they visually look similar is not a valid argument and I provided a completely invalid argument as an example.
    I could also overlay the chart of a company that has been going up practically forever or even backed up and returned to going up (such as AMZN or NFLX) and I would still not prove anything.
    Overlaying visually similar charts is not really sound investing advice.
    Mar 30 08:32 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla's 'Not A Recall' Victory Will Crush Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Up to now, you've always backed your articles on Tesla with ostensibly deep understanding of the battery market and energy storage. This time however you've really taken to extreme measures that may work only on highly uninformed people. Serious investors though will laugh at the face of two overlaid charts that have no relation whatsoever.
    For example, I overlayed the TSLA chart over AXPW (Axion Power, in which Mr. Peterson has a large investment and which has lost about 98% of it's value in the last few years) and found out that "While the two companies are very different, the price chart overlay is more than a little disturbing" when done in reverse. So what does that tell us about Mr. Peterson's investment expertise.
    Mar 30 06:03 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley still dreamy over Tesla Motors [View news story]
    Just like the worst thing that happened to Apple was that smartphones became popular.
    Mar 4 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LightInTheBox: Growth Slowing, But Margins Improving [View article]
    I had great experience buying from them. I bought a LED lamp for about $30. It turned out that it was the wrong type of lamp (due to my mistake). I wanted to return it and order another in its place, but they just sent me a replacement lamp for free and told me to keep the old one!
    Dec 18 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I've Taken A Position [View article]
    Actually your statistics calculation is wrong. Saying that model S has 1 fire per 10,000 cars every 42 days is like taking two of the 472 fires per ICE vehicle per day and saying that ICE vehicles have 1 fire every 3 minutes based on an analysis of two cars :-)
    A more appropriate calculation would be:
    1. There were about 260M cars in the US in 2012 and 172500 vehicle fires. Let's roughly assume they were all ICE cars.
    This gives you 250M/172500=1500
    You have 1 fire per 1500 ICE vehicle per year.
    2. There are roughly 20,000 model S cars on the road. Let's assume there have been roughly 9,000 model S cars on average on the road for the last year (to compensate for a non-linear growth curve).
    This gives you 9,000/3=3,000
    Note that I'm NOT ignoring the fire in Mexico even though the ICE statistics are for the US only, which means I'm giving the Tesla car a handicap.
    In other words, you have 1 fire per 3,000 model S cars per year.
    To summarize, there's a two times smaller risk of having a fire in a model S car as there is in the average ICE car.

    Of course, in reality things are much more complicated, but I've yet to see a statistic calculation that shows that the model S is more risky than an ICE vehicle. On the other hand, I've seen calculations that show the S as much more than twice as safe.

    I agree that it may be true that a model S is more likely to catch fire from driving over debris, but it's also much less likely to catch fire in other situations, which makes it an overall safer car with regards to vehicle fires. It also appears to be much better at protecting the driver in case a fire DOES happen.
    Nov 9 01:03 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Dilution Is Inevitable [View article]
    Who said dilution is bad? It's only bad if you're doing it to compensate for bad management. If you're doing it to fund growth and you can leverage the additional funds to make huge profits - go for it.
    Would you rather hold 100% of a company that has $1B in the bank or 93% of a company that has $2.5B in the bank?
    Last time Tesla had an offering it kickstarted amazing growth in the price of the shares.
    Sep 23 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors has big goals in EV market [View news story]
    I have a concept that's still deep in development for a spaceship that can fly to Mars in 5 days and costs $1,000. That's the concept. In reality, it can't be done (yet).
    So far the only company that has proven this type of capability or anything near that is Tesla. GM on the other hand has proven that it can produce the Chevy Volt hybrid, with an electric range of 40 miles.
    Are you kidding me?
    Sep 17 07:47 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Motors About To Take The Elevator Down? [View article]
    Actually I'm not an expert on the subject, but see this for example (although I admit it is a bit old, probably before cobalt was so widely used for modern purposes)
    http://bit.ly/1e8JlTA
    Also, since it's a by-product of copper production I assume it should be relatively common. Again, I'm no expert, but the name "rare earth" tends to mislead.
    Sep 13 05:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Motors About To Take The Elevator Down? [View article]
    From Tesla's Q2 report press release:
    "Going forward, we expect to be non-GAAP profitable and generate positive cash flow from operations every quarter this year excluding any benefit from ZEV credits."
    Sep 11 10:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Motors About To Take The Elevator Down? [View article]
    Contrary to common belief (and what the name may imply), rare earth metals are not really rare.
    Cobalt, for example, is fairly common, and is found in quantities that make it commercially recoverable in over a dozen countries. Furthermore, its recovery does not require exotic and grossly expensive processes. In most locations, it is recovered as a commercially separated byproduct of copper or nickel production.
    Another example is copper, which you can read about here - http://bit.ly/17WbXcg
    According to USGS data, since 1950 there has always been, on average, 40 years of copper reserves and over 200 years of resources left.
    Sep 11 09:09 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Motors About To Take The Elevator Down? [View article]
    When you post a reply to a correction and admit your error, at least try to be 100% right this time.
    Tesla didn't take in about $3B in the spring. It took in about $1B. About $400M went to pay back the DOE debt. Tesla kept the rest. That's more or less the $746M they now have.
    I wouldn't be too worried about them running out of cash at this point as they're more or less cash flow positive at this time.
    Sep 11 08:53 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Grant Suggests Buying Apple Stock And Shorting Apple Bonds [View article]
    Only thing is, if AAPL stock goes down (instead of going nowhere), or if the dividend is reduced (because of a future downturn in the business) the bondholders will still be entitled to their 2.4% and the shareholders will be worse off. As long as AAPL is still able to pay the bondholders of course - but if it will be in such a bad situation it can't pay back the bondholders, the shareholders will probably have zero.
    It's a nice thought experiment, but in reality those are two completely different investment avenues and you can't compare them in such a direct manner because the risks involved are completely different.
    May 28 06:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's First Red Flag [View article]
    A few counterpoints:
    1. One of the first rules of the stock market is "raise capital when you can, not when you need to". You raise capital in order to provide a cushion against future risks, not because you see them becoming, but because there's always a chance something will go wrong. Tesla has exquisite execution up to now, but something at some point might go wrong and preparing funds to protect against such a risk is a smart move.
    2. Elon Musk said exactly the same thing in the conference call:
    "to ensure that if there was some unexpected supply interruption, some sort of risk event, but should potentially protect against a portion of your event that there could be some merit to doing a round." Ergo, he wasn't lying. The opportunity has come by (thanks to the shorts) and Tesla is just seizing the day.
    3. When you raise capital at the current share price without a discount, you're not really diluting current shareholders. Although they have a smaller percentage of the company after the capital raise, each share is still worth exactly the same dollar amount.
    May 17 09:19 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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