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Conventional Wisdumb

Conventional Wisdumb
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  • Burger King continues to try to keep with rivals with a summer launch of its latest fast food item, a bacon-flavored ice cream sundae. The company hopes to mimic the gigantic success of Taco Bell's Doritos Locos and the kind of hype McDonald's generates with its periodic launches of McRib sandwiches. But with 510 calories and 61 grams of sugar, the dessert stands a chance of hitting obesity-gadfly Michael Bloomberg's radar. [View news story]
    Kmi,

    My point is that Bloomberg has a history of speaking authoritatively on subjects he has no clue about.

    Windmills on bridges? Skyscrapers? LOL!

    Nothing more dangerous than a person who thinks they know it all and don't know that they don't.
    Jun 13 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burger King continues to try to keep with rivals with a summer launch of its latest fast food item, a bacon-flavored ice cream sundae. The company hopes to mimic the gigantic success of Taco Bell's Doritos Locos and the kind of hype McDonald's generates with its periodic launches of McRib sandwiches. But with 510 calories and 61 grams of sugar, the dessert stands a chance of hitting obesity-gadfly Michael Bloomberg's radar. [View news story]
    "Perhaps companies will want to put wind turbines atop bridges and skyscrapers, or use the enormous potential of powerful off-shore winds miles out off the Atlantic Coast, where turbines could generate roughly twice the energy," Bloomberg told the summit.
    It would be a "thing of beauty, if when Lady Liberty looks out on the horizon, she not only welcomes new immigrants to our shores, but lights their way with a torch powered by an ocean windfarm," Bloomberg declared."
    http://bit.ly/KUTd6n

    Yup he is one heck of a genius.
    Jun 13 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apr. Pending Home Sales:-5.5% to 95.5 vs. +0.5% expected; +4.1% prior.  [View news story]
    The level of miss versus expectations is actually in the realm of the ridiculous.
    May 30 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 0.09%M/M vs. 0.2 expected, 0.15% prior. -2.6% Y/Y vs. -2.6% expected, -3.5% prior.  [View news story]
    From the press release:

    " However, with these latest data, all three composites still posted their lowest levels since the housing crisis began in mid-2006.
    ...
    “While there has been improvement in some regions, housing prices have not turned,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “This month’s report saw all three composites and five cities hit new lows. However, with last month’s report nine cities hit new lows. Further, about half as many cities, seven, experienced falling prices this month compared to 16 last time."
    May 29 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Bring On The Economic Evidence [View article]
    Tack,

    You misunderstand my comment. I was referring to the "predictive" value of trailing PE"s, as in there isn't any.

    The period from 1990-2000 had higher than average trailing PE's and the decade had a CAGR of 16.5% which came along with way higher than average trailing PE's suggesting that the market was overvalued if you use the corollary of the premise. That performance was way better than any recent decade in the modern era so the message could just as easily be buy when trailing PE's are higher than average.

    In other words, it is a completely vacuous metric with no predictive value. There are better ways to assess market valuations such as Buffett's preferred metric of the Market Cap to GDP ratio which does have predictive value.
    May 28 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Bring On The Economic Evidence [View article]
    Trailing PE's have no predictive value. Just look at the period where they were exceptionally low - 1972 to 1984. That was a bad decade for stocks where this indicator would have had you investing all along. It is interesting info but I don't see anything predictive about it which is probably why it is ignored.

    It almost appears that high trailing PE's are better indicators of momentum and therefore the time to stay invested is when trailing PE's are higher than the average which is the opposite of now - which means the advice to buy on low trailing PE's is not sound.
    May 27 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italian PM Monti hits the tape, telling Dow Jones a majority of the EU states favor common eurobonds. Unfortunately, tweets ZH, the ones that oppose them are the ones that pay the bills.  [View news story]
    Right on cue. Robots/algos will now buy.
    May 24 05:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Durable Goods: +0.2% vs. +0.5% expected, -3.7% (revised) prior. Ex-transport -0.6% vs. +0.7% expected, -0.8% (revised) prior. [View news story]
    To quote Keith McCullough #GrowthSlowing.
    May 24 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NetApp (NTAP): FQ4 EPS of $0.66 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.7B (+19% Y/Y) beats by $20M. Expects FQ1 revenue of $1.4B-$1.5B and EPS of $0.34-$0.39, below consensus of $1.61B and $0.59. Shares -11.8% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    NTAP now down to just over $25 in AH trading!
    May 23 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • During its FQ1 earnings call (webcast), Dell admits its 10% Y/Y drop in notebook sales had much to do with tablet cannibalization (more with consumers, but also among businesses). Dell also claims price competition (especially in emerging markets) hurt PC sales, and an inefficient sales structure affected enterprise sales. Also, it adds April was particularly weak, and some enterprises are delaying IT purchases. DELL -12% AH. HPQ -2.5%. INTC -1.1%. (presentation - PDF).  [View news story]
    They forgot to mention that the Inspiron now sucks. This used to be an incredibly well made box with lots of choices and customization - now not so much. I shopped the last week and chose an ASUS - better all around for less money. This would never have happened 5 years ago.

    I was a big fan for many years but now they lost me and I suspect many others like me. There is something seriously wrong with this company and it hasn't been great for a while.
    May 22 11:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Long-Term Return Cycles Now Favor Better Long-Term Market Returns Ahead [View article]
    StopAlerts,

    Yes I do. Not sure why you are so sensitive on the comment. It wasn't intended as a personal attack.

    Thanks for writing.
    May 21 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Long-Term Return Cycles Now Favor Better Long-Term Market Returns Ahead [View article]
    Averages hide a lot of information - a "snow man" can have an average temperature of 31 degrees and not be a snowman.
    May 20 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Down Down Down [View article]
    Agree with Hussman or not his analysis of the market over the last 6 weeks has been spot on. Assuming the worst case, there is a lot more downside from here or until the FED steps in to save the day again.
    May 20 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Collapse Of The Athens Index [View article]
    That is sobering.
    May 17 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apr. Leading Indicators: Leading Index -0.1% vs. +0.1% expected, +0.3% prior. Coincident Index +0.2% vs. +0.2% prior. Lagging Index +0.5% vs. +0.3% prior.  [View news story]
    Whiff of recession?

    "The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in April to 95.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in March, and a 0.7 percent increase in February.

    Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI declined slightly in April. Falling housing permits, rising initial claims for unemployment insurance and subdued consumer expectations offset small gains in the remaining components. The LEI’s six-month growth rate fell slightly, but remains in expansionary territory and well above its growth at the end of 2011. The CEI, a measure of current economic conditions, has also increased for five consecutive months.”

    Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators reflect an economy that’s still struggling to gain momentum. Growth is slow, but choppy, and consumers, executives and investors are looking for more progress.”
    May 17 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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