Conventional Wisdumb, www.conventionalwisdumb.com, lives in FL where he believes that Ignorance is the most expensive, deadly, and dangerous commodity in the world today. Formerly a VP with Bernstein's High Net Worth group he has his Series 7, 31, and 66 licenses which have fortunately all lapsed. One of life's lottery winners, he made enough money founding an internet business during the dotcom days (remember those?) to enjoy the good life and he is now a recovering entrepreneur who pesters those he loves with all kinds of crazy, outrageous, and contrary opinions, questions, and observations that are guaranteed to irritate. He also refers to himself in the 3rd party voice.
Rather than post details about my investment background and history that might easily have been misremembered--I'll provide a true personal story that captures my view on the pursuit of stockpicking alpha:
At the completion of my first year as a starting pitcher in Little League, I had an undefeated pitching record and top strikeout tally. Nobody could hit my curve ball. I was admired by the league's coaches and my peers alike. The next year, my hubris caused me to ruin my arm throwing far too many curve balls, thus ending my baseball dreams. Meanwhile, my best friend in Little League diminished his early success because he never threw curve balls. His parents wouldn't allow it. In spite of his early disadvantage, he ended up an MLB All Star and World Series winning pitcher. Most kids have big, improbable dreams. Yet I've known only one person who actually achieved his big childhood dream. What does this have to do with investing?
In the investment world, there are constant displays of confidence and bold claims of superior methodologies. Yet I've not found one nonprofessional investor who could prove that he had beaten a benchmark index for a 10-year period. The professional investors who've beaten the appropriate benchmark for a 25-year period can probably fit on a school bus. Like my Little League success, nearly all investment outperformance reverses course. I believe that the odds an investor will beat an appropriate benchmark for an entire lifetime are no greater than a Little Leaguer becoming an All-Star with a World Series ring.
The Market News tracker is my favorite part of this website. Otherwise, I see the website mainly as a social media venue for aspirational stock hobbyists & advisors who are 110% certain that they're endowed with special investing skill. Never mind that almost none can provide a meaningful, long-term record of outperformance. Fortunately for the authors, the website is very supportive. Comments critical of articles are often removed, and bloggers can trumpet good luck and misremember blunders without troublesome fact checking. The unconditional love enables bloggers to achieve popularity with skillful self-promotion, gravitas, and a likable persona. An ambitious subscription stock-tip blogger would be well advised to study the techniques of Tony Robbins and Deepak Chopra rather than Warren Buffett and Ben Graham.
"You make more money selling the advice than following it."
Michael Ashton has been a recognized leader in developing the U.S. inflation derivatives market. He traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps in 2003 and, as a dealer, was a primary liquidity-provider in that market for two large banks. He represented about one-third of interbank swaps volume during his tenures at those firms. He invented and was the sole market-maker for the CME CPI Futures contract. He has written and spoken extensively about the use of inflation-indexed products for hedging real exposures, and has written more broadly in a commentary format about the rates markets and macroeconomy. Mr. Ashton is currently the managing principal at Enduring Investments LLC. His comments on this site and others are not posted in that role, and no opinions of his should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of his employer. He recently published "What's Wrong With Money? The Biggest Bubble of All."
Avi Gilburt is a lawyer and accountant by training. He formerly was a partner and National Director at a national firm.
Mr. Gilburt is also the Managing Member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC, which provides:
- Financial market analysis to the public through ElliottWaveTrader.net;
- Elliott Wave market analysis to institutional clients;
- Specific stock analysis to retail clients; and
- Webinars and personal coaching on Elliott Wave analysis.
He is also the Managing Member of the of the consulting firm of Gilburt & Associates, LLC, which specializes in transaction structuring and tax services.
Stanley J G Crouch is CIO and Senior Managing Director at Aegis Capital Corp in NYC. He also is CEO of EXP Wealth Enhancement, LLC, an affiliate of Aegis. He began his career in 1983 and has served in a number of senior positions in the financial services industry. He has been responsible for over $5 billion of debt, mezzanine and preferred equity transactions as both public offerings and private placements. A nationally recognized speaker, he regularly appears in media such as, CNBC, FOX BN, CBS, Bloomberg News and has been interviewed an quoted in numerous publications like Reuters, Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Institutional Investor among others.
He has co-created a proprietary income-centric investment platform encompassing all facets of income investing and centered on "off-the-run" client solutions. Serving HNW, UHNW, Endowments, Organizations and Family Offices, he helps steward client assets in custody in Aegis accounts.
***The opinions expressed by Mr Crouch are strictly his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Aegis Capital Corp, EXP Wealth Enhancement, LLC, or their affiliates. Nothing expressed constitutes an solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any particular investment or investment program. Any investment involves risk and may result in a loss of principal. Investors should carefully consider their own circumstances before making any investment or embarking on any investment program.***
After following the markets for years, I started actively managing my portfolio in 2010. Plenty of misteps and a few victories have brought me to the point of wanting to share my experiences and gather feedback from this community.
I'm still learning the more advanced strategies for options and currently investigating futures trading, I want to bring my perspective to the investing world and hopefully generate some alpha along the way.
I tend to focus on a few names at a time to determine their trading patterns before intitating anything. I've learned that patience is a virtue and to not rush into trades. There are always more opportunities though I still struggle with "the trade that got away" syndrome on my darker days.
I hope anyone reading my articles is able to get some valuable information out my opinions and experience, and maybe a chuckle once in a while.
Trader - Economist - Health Care Specialist - Chart interpreter
Happy New Year!
2014 may not be kind to equities. Caution for most investors.
Great Year for traders!
YEAR OF THE BEARS - 2014!
I am an active day trader. I focus on entering positions which allow me to set tight stop losses. I will from time to time post my trades for the day in real time. I hope to help others trade better and help them avoid the many traps of trading.
Erik is the senior market technician for Prometheus Market Insight and has been performing chart analysis since 1995. The software program that he developed to monitor long-term stock market trends has correctly identified 92% of the cyclical turning points in the S&P 500 index since 1940. His Gold Currency Index has predicted every major trend change in the US gold market since its creation in 2005.
Oscar has been passionate about investing since he was 9. He loves talking business, stocks and investment ideas with everyone. He sees the investment process as a life-long learning opportunity in a game setting.
Please subscribe to my mailing list to stay up to date and connected: http://eepurl.com/b0VEQ5
Keith wrote Minyanville.com’s Housing Market Report and just launched his Capital Preservation Real Estate Report on June 1.
The focus of Keith’s writings and presentations has been to prepare people for the continued housing market decline that he sees as almost inevitable. His new report broadens his reach to include commercial real estate, mortgage-backed securities and REITs.
Keith’s in-depth housing market articles have been posted regularly on major websites such as BUSINESS INSIDER, REAL CLEAR MARKETS, MINYANVILLE and MARKETWATCH.
Keith has been interviewed extensively including a recent appearance on Yahoo Finance’s “Daily Ticker” show which was seen by more than 100,000 viewers. He was recently interviewed on Bloomberg TV’s “Bottom Line.” He has also appeared twice on the Wall Street Journal’s syndicated Michael Castner radio show. Keith’s interviews can be seen at www.keithjurow.com.
He gave major presentations in Manhattan in 2012 before organizations such as the Financial Policy Council, the Rotary Club of New York, and a Family Office conference for high net worth investors.
Keith is a graduate of Cornell University and received both an M.A. and a PhD from the Graduate Faculty of the New School in Manhattan.
Jeff is the President of NewArc Investments Inc., manager of both individual and institutional investments. Jeff is a registered investment advisor, and portfolio manager for NewArc's investment programs. Jeff is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. Jeff began in the financial business as Research Director for trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models, taught classes for beginning options traders, and developed new forecasting techniques. In 1991 he established a general research consultancy, working with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges. In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc. Jeff has a commitment to the specific needs of individual investors. It is not a one-size-fits all approach, but one that emphasizes the unique circumstances of each client. Jeff also serves on the board of two small technology companies (currently Chairman at one). He is occasionally as an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.
Doug Short is first-wave boomer with a lifelong interest in markets and the economy. His professional career had been a satisfying split between academia (English Professor at North Carolina State University) and Information technology (IBM and GSK).
Doug retired in 2006 to devote himself full-time to his dshort.com financial website. The domain has now been acquired by Advisor Perspectives, and Doug has been appointed the Vice President of Research.
Doug is especially interested in the economy, long-term market trends and behavioral finance.
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