Toby Shute: >My advice for Fools interested in retaining precious metals >exposure is to stick to proven, shareholder-friendly management >teams advancing top-shelf projects in pro-mining jurisdictions. >And stay nervous.
Yep! Stick to them paper assests, whose value will eventually reflect the trillions of fiat that has yet to be flooded onto the market as banks clean up their "balance sheets."
Avoid that silly yellow metal in favor on some management team. By the way, ownership of a goldmining company is not a proxy for owning the metal outright.
The Fools, and count me as one, who prefer gold will also see its price reflect the trillions of fiat that has yet to be flooded onto the market. Only $2,000?
By the way...an ounce of gold is always an ounce of gold. Answer this: Why does it continue to take more and more fiat to buy the same 1 oz? The price of gold is not going up. The "value" of the paper fiat keeps going down...and the party ain't close to being over.
Do Bonds Know Something Stocks Don't? [View article]
Thursday 8 July 2010
Fed intervention in the stock market, via POMO, [Permanent Open Market Operations], and the ongoing manipulation of the financial system has severed any meaningful relationship between bonds and equities. They are fast becoming blended with a common fate in store: disaster.
The first Q posed, re central bankers solving anything, it has been the "central bankers" who have precipitated the domino events of the last several years.
The current stock rally, on less volume, can be attributed more to short-covering, and not new buying. A counter-trend correction in a market that will head south and retest the March '09 lows.
The Gold Debate: Here's Why You Should Be Wary [View article]
Wednesday 23 December 2009
The story of somone who followed advice from a trucker radio has no bearing on the validity of gold, nor does it belong in an article that is supposedly offering factual information on gold.
Rationalize as much as anyone so choses...gold, and silver to a lesser degree, have been recognized as the primary specie as a store of value, to this day. Why else would the Federal Reserve Act be passed on 23 December 1913, as an entree for foreign interests who own the Fed to bankrupt this country back in 1933, and proceed to take ALL the gold owned by the US. [Check out the facts behind this for any disbelievers].
The price of gold is not going up so much as the "value" of the fiat Fed "dollar" keep going down, so it takes more of that fiat to purchase the SAME 1 ounce of gold. It helpsto maintain a factual perspective pertaining to the factual value of the and the imagined "value" of a fiat "currency."
FWIW, the Federal Reserve Note is not legal currency. It is, in fact, a debt instrument, the opposite of money.
Even the Federal Reserve admits the Federal Reserve Note, [FRN], is not a dollar. They just call it that in their deception over the Amercian public. There used to be a brand of snow sleds called Radio Flyer. The sled had no radio, and it did not fly. In the same vein of advertising, re FRN, they are NOT Federal, there are NO reserves,and for sure, they are NOT notes...not that most seem to care about those kinds of facts.
If someone does not understand the historic value of gold, any story discrediting or questioning it will do.
Call me myopic, but the only trend I see in gold, from a quarterly chart to a weekly, is an up trend. One could argue a trading range on a daily, but not a down trend.
Intuitively, when the market crashes, gold will be the safest haven for smart money; certainly not anything made of paper...coming from one who is not a "Gold Bug."
Silver is becoming scarcer than gold, and could very well outperform the yellow metal.
While there could be a rally, the degree of which is yet to be determined, the larger time frames, monthly and weekly charts remain in down trends, and the daily still has yet to make a higher high. Not sure if one could call the bears exhausted, but the power of the Fed is not to be underestimated, in the short term.
1109 is a half way retracement. Let's see how the market responds to it, if it can reach that level. Should price be able to exhibit strength, in the process, 1130 would then have to be navigated, so your 1131 is right on point.
Longer term, a retest of the March 2009 lows, 665, remains in the cards.
Because the Federal Reserve Act, passed on 23 December 1913, two days before Christmas, when custom was always that no legislation is passed between Thanksgiving and New Years, while most members of Congress were traveling home for the holidays, was borne of secrecy due to its insidious nature.
The Act was passed when its two main opponents for blocking the Act were away from Washington and unable to vote.
Who was the first Fed chariman? A German Jew brought into this country to run the banking system...the exact same system modeled after the Reich Bank.
How many Americans even know or care about the roots of a foreign corporate banking cartel getting a hold of issuing US currency, initially, gradually replaced by Federal Reserve Notes, which are NOT Federal, there are NO reserves, and they are NOT notes?
[FYI...Congress abolished the legislation that allowed Federal Reserve Notes to be legal tender. Why isn't THAT a known fact?!]
The Fed pushed out specie-backed US currency, money of exchange, and replaced it with fiat, funny munny, called "money of account" because it is created by bookkeeping entries, now simply computer blips. [All of this information has been available in Fedreal Reserve Publications!!!]
The Fed bankrupted the US back in 1933...what did you think the "bank holiday" was for?.
The US lost representative government the day the Fed act was passed. The Fed has milked this country dry of all its gold and silver. Rothschilde is rolling over in his grave with fits of laughter, seeing what he created take over all governments... by controlling the currency.
I doubt there is a single reader on this site that knows what a dollar is. The horse has left the barn. The ship has sailed. This country is toast. Cognitive dissonance keeps it alive.
Why is the Fed so secretive? Because it controlls the strings from which all US politicians, including the president, dangle, at the Feds discretion.
Move over Weimar and Zimbabwe. Make room for the US.
This country was founded as a Republic, but everyone calls it a democracy, the worst known form of government. At least do a google search and learn the difference.
The politiburo in Washington is in total control. Hitler passed a national health care program, just like the one being passed in this country. If people do not join, they will be subject to heavy fines. The politiburo is creating criminalization of its 14th Amendment citizens...
For too few people, knowing why the Fed is so secretive is not a mystery, at all.
Stocks Approaching Major Long-Term Resistance. Is a Reversal Imminent? [View article]
Tuesday 26 October 2010
No one has a clue as to When price will reverse, nor does anyone know How a reversal will develop. The daily and intra day charts are in an up trend. The weekly is in a broader trading range. It usually takes time to reverse a trend.
Another consideration is that it will take time for the distribution phase of selling stocks to develop. Rather than see an imminent collapse, given the sense of urgency the Fed and politics are devoting to propping this market up, there would be an extended trading range going into year end, but hell, what do I know about the When and How?
What I do know for certain is that it is best to Follow the market's lead, as opposed to getting in front and hoping it catches up to one's ego.
Weekly Market Forecast: Re-Testing 1040 Before Heading Downward? [View article]
Monday 30 August 2010
One consideration absent is the view that the market is in a broad trading range, late May to date, with 1125+ the upper range and 1035 area on the low side.
Strong volume entered the market both on Wednesday's and Friday's upside rallies. Friday even formed an OKR. The level of knowledge is least whenever a market is in a trading range. What we have learned is that the 1035+/- area is strong support, and the 1125 - 1130 area is strong resistance.
This sideways movement continues to build with the likely outcome being a break under support, and eventually taking out the Mar 2009 lows. In the interim, depending upon how Friday's strong rally gets retested, should it hold, price could get back above 1100, and a retest of the 1125-1130 area would be great.
For now, the focus is on how well, or not, last week's rally fares.
A reasonable analysis that allows for yet more upside, defined in a larger bearish context, and that equals requisite flexibility. The most important consideration is always the trend, and defining it in context of the time frame under consideration.
For the first time since the march 2009 low, the weekly chart has recently broken a string of successivley higher swing lows, a sign of market direction. What is most interesting about the breaking of the February swing low was HOW the it was broken...decisively, with wider range bars down and on increased volume.
Since the 5 July weekly low, note how the last three week's ranges have narrowed...a lack of buying strength, and volume has diminished, confirming less buyer interest as price rallied.
Could price continue higher? Absolutely, and allowance in Mr Summer's analysis states as much. The issue is watching the character of any rally, and if it can sustain itself.
On a daily time frame, from the mid-June 1129.50 high, price declined to the July 1002.75 low in 11 trading days. Since that low, it has taken 24 days in this recovery rally. What the market information is saying is that the current rally is much more labored in time.
The recovery rally from Friday was on increased volume, and the close was above the half-way point of the range, and that is about the only technical factor that would allow for a probe above recent 1125 resistance.
It is also apparent, from the daily chart, that the thrusts up are getting shorter, making less upward progress. These observations derived from market activity are not signs of strength.
Let the market lead, rather than trying to "predict" what it may do, and then follow that lead.
Four Reasons Copper Is Soaring and Four ETFs to Play [View article]
Monday 26 July 2010
As one who trades nothing but futures, the headline caught my eye. "Copper is soaring." I wonder what I missed, so I looked at my charts, once again.
The monthly chart has rallied from an oversold condition, but it is not any higher than levels from 2006 through 2008, and it has been in a sideways move for almost a year. Granted, it has rallied from a low position.
Same for the weekly chart. Price is almost dead center of the past year's trading range, and it is bumping up against a half-way retracement, at least for now.
The daily chart confused me because it looks to be in a down trend, also at a 50% retracement, that may be turning sideways, for it is the first time since April that we see a small series of two higher highs and higher lows.
I missed the "soaring" part somewhere? Maybe soaring is like beauty, in the eye of the beholder...
The lack of volume is attributable to both lack of sellers and buyers, however, the buyers are prevailing, [by default], based on the position of the closes, of late, being in the upper end of the range for the day.
More troubling for longs, is the fact that the last two day's of last week saw successively smaller ranges. This tells us that buyers are are unable to extend the range higher, and it is a sign of overall weakness.
Friday had the lowest volume and the smallest ranges, intra day, of last week. The smaller ranges is an example of shorts seeing price near a resistance area and wanting to get short "for the next drop." Price keeps rallying, on little demand, so unprofitable shorts are forced to cover and take a loss. This adds to the buying, in the form of short-covering. Both demonstrate the lack of interest in following the market to the upside.
Who is going to sell anyway in this government-inspired Fed fed rally? The Wall Street interests are not going to go against the "wishes" of Washington to make put lipstick on the "pig" of a rally.
There is a strong likelihood that the market can be range-bound through the rest of the year. If not, any rallies will be short-lived, and declines will gain momentum. No one knows with any certainty, so always follow current developing market activity to gauge one's expectations and adjust accordingly.
Strongly have to disagree with you, Square9. The decline from the market highs of 2007-2008 were very clear that price was breaking down and the trends, daily, weekly, and monthly were changing, very"much ahead of the precipitous drop, from a technical point of view. Do you know who would not listen? Fundamentalists and most all longs in the market!
Fall out of the deep blue sky?
Why is it that people who do not understand market activity always leave it to chance and unexplained forces? Just as a recent example, look at bit.ly/9O9KcZ. That will give you an idea of why I was able to get long the S&P at 1034 this morning, and take profits on half the position at 1054, with a risk-free trade on the balance, bit.ly/bk6bu2.
How can any "theory" anticipate the actions of market participants? It ain't "theory," my man, it is the foot prints of behavioral market patterns from human history that repeat themselves over and over again.
You obviously have no market skills, yet you are "skilled" enough to pass judgment and pronounce that no one else does, either.
If one does not understand market activity, a favorite default response is to liken it to a casino environment. Unlike a casino, a participant in the stock or futures market gets to choose when to play and under circumstances of his/her choosing. In a casino, one is at risk of the randomness of a car shuffle or worse, a roll of the dice.
Throw your "dice" at the "Wall Street Casino." Professionals love people like you. Smart about what they know, and ignorant about what they do not.
Those who are unaware are unaware of being unaware.
Gold Investors: Stay Nervous [View article]
Toby Shute:
>My advice for Fools interested in retaining precious metals
>exposure is to stick to proven, shareholder-friendly management
>teams advancing top-shelf projects in pro-mining jurisdictions.
>And stay nervous.
Yep! Stick to them paper assests, whose value will eventually
reflect the trillions of fiat that has yet to be flooded onto the market
as banks clean up their "balance sheets."
Avoid that silly yellow metal in favor on some management team.
By the way, ownership of a goldmining company is not a proxy for
owning the metal outright.
The Fools, and count me as one, who prefer gold will also see its
price reflect the trillions of fiat that has yet to be flooded onto the
market. Only $2,000?
By the way...an ounce of gold is always an ounce of gold. Answer
this: Why does it continue to take more and more fiat to buy the
same 1 oz? The price of gold is not going up. The "value" of the
paper fiat keeps going down...and the party ain't close to being
over.
Cheers!
Do Bonds Know Something Stocks Don't? [View article]
Fed intervention in the stock market, via POMO, [Permanent Open Market Operations], and the ongoing manipulation of the financial system has severed any meaningful relationship between bonds and equities. They are fast becoming blended with a common fate in store: disaster.
The first Q posed, re central bankers solving anything, it has been the "central bankers" who have precipitated the domino events of the last several years.
The current stock rally, on less volume, can be attributed more to short-covering, and not new buying. A counter-trend correction in a market that will head south and retest the March '09 lows.
The Gold Debate: Here's Why You Should Be Wary [View article]
The story of somone who followed advice from a trucker radio has
no bearing on the validity of gold, nor does it belong in an article
that is supposedly offering factual information on gold.
Rationalize as much as anyone so choses...gold, and silver to a
lesser degree, have been recognized as the primary specie as a
store of value, to this day. Why else would the Federal Reserve
Act be passed on 23 December 1913, as an entree for foreign
interests who own the Fed to bankrupt this country back in 1933,
and proceed to take ALL the gold owned by the US. [Check out
the facts behind this for any disbelievers].
The price of gold is not going up so much as the "value" of the fiat
Fed "dollar" keep going down, so it takes more of that fiat to
purchase the SAME 1 ounce of gold. It helpsto maintain a factual
perspective pertaining to the factual value of the and the imagined
"value" of a fiat "currency."
FWIW, the Federal Reserve Note is not legal currency. It is, in
fact, a debt instrument, the opposite of money.
Even the Federal Reserve admits the Federal Reserve Note,
[FRN], is not a dollar. They just call it that in their deception over the Amercian public. There used to be a brand of snow sleds
called Radio Flyer. The sled had no radio, and it did not fly. In the
same vein of advertising, re FRN, they are NOT Federal, there are
NO reserves,and for sure, they are NOT notes...not that most
seem to care about those kinds of facts.
If someone does not understand the historic value of gold, any
story discrediting or questioning it will do.
Is Gold Crash Proof This Time? [View article]
Call me myopic, but the only trend I see in gold, from a quarterly chart to a weekly, is an up trend. One could argue a trading range on a daily, but not a down trend.
Intuitively, when the market crashes, gold will be the safest haven for smart money; certainly not anything made of paper...coming from one who is not a "Gold Bug."
Silver is becoming scarcer than gold, and could very well outperform the yellow metal.
Weekly Market Forecast [View article]
While there could be a rally, the degree of which is yet to be determined, the larger time frames, monthly and weekly charts remain in down trends, and the daily still has yet to make a higher high. Not sure if one could call the bears exhausted, but the power of the Fed is not to be underestimated, in the short term.
1109 is a half way retracement. Let's see how the market responds to it, if it can reach that level. Should price be able to exhibit strength, in the process, 1130 would then have to be navigated, so your 1131 is right on point.
Longer term, a retest of the March 2009 lows, 665, remains in the cards.
I Told You It Would Happen...And It Did [View article]
Timing is everything!
Cheers...
The Fed's Culture of Secrecy [View article]
Why the secrecy?!
Because the Federal Reserve Act, passed on 23 December 1913,
two days before Christmas, when custom was always that no
legislation is passed between Thanksgiving and New Years,
while most members of Congress were traveling home for the
holidays, was borne of secrecy due to its insidious nature.
The Act was passed when its two main opponents for blocking
the Act were away from Washington and unable to vote.
Who was the first Fed chariman? A German Jew brought
into this country to run the banking system...the exact same
system modeled after the Reich Bank.
How many Americans even know or care about the roots of
a foreign corporate banking cartel getting a hold of issuing
US currency, initially, gradually replaced by Federal Reserve
Notes, which are NOT Federal, there are NO reserves, and
they are NOT notes?
[FYI...Congress abolished the legislation that allowed
Federal Reserve Notes to be legal tender. Why isn't THAT
a known fact?!]
The Fed pushed out specie-backed US currency, money of
exchange, and replaced it with fiat, funny munny, called "money
of account" because it is created by bookkeeping entries, now
simply computer blips. [All of this information has been
available in Fedreal Reserve Publications!!!]
The Fed bankrupted the US back in 1933...what did you think
the "bank holiday" was for?.
The US lost representative government the day the Fed act
was passed. The Fed has milked this country dry of all its
gold and silver. Rothschilde is rolling over in his grave with
fits of laughter, seeing what he created take over all
governments... by controlling the currency.
I doubt there is a single reader on this site that knows what a
dollar is. The horse has left the barn. The ship has sailed.
This country is toast. Cognitive dissonance keeps it alive.
Why is the Fed so secretive? Because it controlls the
strings from which all US politicians, including the president,
dangle, at the Feds discretion.
Move over Weimar and Zimbabwe. Make room for the US.
This country was founded as a Republic, but everyone calls
it a democracy, the worst known form of government. At
least do a google search and learn the difference.
The politiburo in Washington is in total control. Hitler passed
a national health care program, just like the one being passed
in this country. If people do not join, they will be subject to
heavy fines. The politiburo is creating criminalization of its
14th Amendment citizens...
For too few people, knowing why the Fed is so secretive is
not a mystery, at all.
Do your own due deligence.
Stocks Approaching Major Long-Term Resistance. Is a Reversal Imminent? [View article]
No one has a clue as to When price will reverse, nor does anyone know How a reversal will develop. The daily and intra day charts are in an up trend. The weekly is in a broader trading range. It usually takes time to reverse a trend.
Another consideration is that it will take time for the distribution phase of selling stocks to develop. Rather than see an imminent collapse, given the sense of urgency the Fed and politics are devoting to propping this market up, there would be an extended trading range going into year end, but hell, what do I know about the When and How?
What I do know for certain is that it is best to Follow the market's lead, as opposed to getting in front and hoping it catches up to one's ego.
Weekly Market Forecast: Re-Testing 1040 Before Heading Downward? [View article]
One consideration absent is the view that the market is in a broad trading range, late May to date, with 1125+ the upper range and 1035 area on the low side.
Strong volume entered the market both on Wednesday's and Friday's upside rallies. Friday even formed an OKR. The level of knowledge is least whenever a market is in a trading range. What we have learned is that the 1035+/- area is strong support, and the 1125 - 1130 area is strong resistance.
This sideways movement continues to build with the likely outcome being a break under support, and eventually taking out the Mar 2009 lows. In the interim, depending upon how Friday's strong rally gets retested, should it hold, price could get back above 1100, and a retest of the 1125-1130 area would be great.
For now, the focus is on how well, or not, last week's rally fares.
Next Leg Down Could Begin Shortly [View article]
A reasonable analysis that allows for yet more upside, defined in a larger bearish context, and that equals requisite flexibility. The most important consideration is always the trend, and defining it in context of the time frame under consideration.
For the first time since the march 2009 low, the weekly chart has recently broken a string of successivley higher swing lows, a sign of market direction. What is most interesting about the breaking of the February swing low was HOW the it was broken...decisively, with wider range bars down and on increased volume.
Since the 5 July weekly low, note how the last three week's ranges have narrowed...a lack of buying strength, and volume has diminished, confirming less buyer interest as price rallied.
Could price continue higher? Absolutely, and allowance in Mr Summer's analysis states as much. The issue is watching the character of any rally, and if it can sustain itself.
On a daily time frame, from the mid-June 1129.50 high, price declined to the July 1002.75 low in 11 trading days. Since that low, it has taken 24 days in this recovery rally. What the market information is saying is that the current rally is much more labored in time.
The recovery rally from Friday was on increased volume, and the close was above the half-way point of the range, and that is about the only technical factor that would allow for a probe above recent 1125 resistance.
It is also apparent, from the daily chart, that the thrusts up are getting shorter, making less upward progress. These observations derived from market activity are not signs of strength.
Let the market lead, rather than trying to "predict" what it may do, and then follow that lead.
Four Reasons Copper Is Soaring and Four ETFs to Play [View article]
Four Reasons Copper Is Soaring and Four ETFs to Play [View article]
As one who trades nothing but futures, the headline caught my eye.
"Copper is soaring." I wonder what I missed, so I looked at my charts, once again.
The monthly chart has rallied from an oversold condition, but it is not any higher than levels from 2006 through 2008, and it has been in a sideways move for almost a year. Granted, it has rallied from a low position.
Same for the weekly chart. Price is almost dead center of the past year's trading range, and it is bumping up against a half-way retracement, at least for now.
The daily chart confused me because it looks to be in a down trend, also at a 50% retracement, that may be turning sideways, for it is the first time since April that we see a small series of two higher highs and higher lows.
I missed the "soaring" part somewhere? Maybe soaring is like beauty, in the eye of the beholder...
Return of the No-Volume Melt-Up [View article]
The lack of volume is attributable to both lack of sellers and buyers, however, the buyers are prevailing, [by default], based on the position of the closes, of late, being in the upper end of the range for the day.
More troubling for longs, is the fact that the last two day's of last week saw successively smaller ranges. This tells us that buyers are are unable to extend the range higher, and it is a sign of overall weakness.
Friday had the lowest volume and the smallest ranges, intra day, of last week. The smaller ranges is an example of shorts seeing price near a resistance area and wanting to get short "for the next drop." Price keeps rallying, on little demand, so unprofitable shorts are forced to cover and take a loss. This adds to the buying, in the form of short-covering. Both demonstrate the lack of interest in following the market to the upside.
Who is going to sell anyway in this government-inspired Fed fed rally? The Wall Street interests are not going to go against the "wishes" of Washington to make put lipstick on the "pig" of a rally.
There is a strong likelihood that the market can be range-bound through the rest of the year. If not, any rallies will be short-lived, and declines will gain momentum. No one knows with any certainty, so always follow current developing market activity to gauge one's expectations and adjust accordingly.
My Short-Term Market Forecast [View article]
Strongly have to disagree with you, Square9. The decline from the market highs of 2007-2008 were very clear that price was breaking down and the trends, daily, weekly, and monthly were changing, very"much ahead of the precipitous drop, from a technical point of view. Do you know who would not listen? Fundamentalists and most all longs in the market!
Fall out of the deep blue sky?
Why is it that people who do not understand market activity always
leave it to chance and unexplained forces? Just as a recent example, look at bit.ly/9O9KcZ. That will give you an idea of why I was able to get long the S&P at 1034 this morning, and take profits on half the position at 1054, with a risk-free trade on the balance, bit.ly/bk6bu2.
How can any "theory" anticipate the actions of market participants? It ain't "theory," my man, it is the foot prints of behavioral market patterns from human history that repeat themselves over and over again.
You obviously have no market skills, yet you are "skilled" enough to pass judgment and pronounce that no one else does, either.
Here's the Bounce, What's Next? [View article]
PDiesal:
If one does not understand market activity, a favorite default response is to liken it to a casino environment. Unlike a casino, a participant in the stock or futures market gets to choose when to play and under circumstances of his/her choosing. In a casino, one is at risk of the randomness of a car shuffle or worse, a roll of the dice.
Throw your "dice" at the "Wall Street Casino." Professionals love people like you. Smart about what they know, and ignorant about what they do not.
Those who are unaware are unaware of being unaware.