edgetraderplus'  Instablog

Saturday 25 May 2013

We cannot control the markets, but we can control how to respond towhat they are saying. The paper market has been turned into a
circus, thanks to JP Morgan, and abetted by the exchanges, COMEX
and LME. Focus has to remain on the physical market, for it is where
one can expect to find true value for price. What everyone has learned
is that as price has declined, demand has disproportionately
skyrocketed.

We have written extensively on the acquisition of physical gold and
silver, regardless of price, because no one can know when the central bankers will lose control and price will erupt like Eyjafjallajökull. The
world is in the middle of a huge central bank bubble, of which there are many sub-bubbles, as it were. [Anyone who pretends to believe
whatever information is being disseminated by NWO-owned mainstream media, none of which makes any economic sense, and those who do
not fully believe, (or at all), what is being said but do not know where else to turn, stay away from all central banks and central planners
news or information.]

In addition to creating bubbles that will fail, the Western central
bankers, and their puppet governments, are also doing battle with
Eastern countries, mostly BRICS, but more and more countries are
aligning with them and against the impending demise of fiat regimes.
Western central banks are on the losing end, as their fraudulent
rehypothecation of gold, several times over, and the virtually depletedreserves now rest comfortably in the hands of Russia, China,
India, Turkey, et al, none of which will tolerate any more of the
reckless mismanagement of the West. It will not end well for those
of us in the Western sphere of influence.

The most coveted of all assets around the world has been gold, on
a grand scale, and silver, on a smaller scale, but grand relative to
diminishing supply. As we asserted last time, it does not matter what
the fundamental picture says, for now, the moving forces are those
in control of the paper market, and the populations of Western
countries. The power will not be ceded willingly nor readily, so one
cannot rely upon the known demand factors, no matter how bullishly
presented. That information is already in the market, and it has not
created the large mark-up most have been anticipating. It ain't
happening, yet.

The paper markets, however much manipulated or disconnected from
the physical, are the only barometer available, for now. Under normal
circumstances charts, which reflect the market forces, are the most
reliable source of information. Here is what they are saying, at this
point in time.

In our last article, we said that time was on the side of those currently in control, and it would take longer than most expect before gold and
silver will reach previous highs and yet higher, after that, [The True
Story Is About Time, http://bit.ly/12iELsC]. In another previous
article, we explained how wide range bars can lead to range control for several more bars to follow, and longer, [It Could Get Uglier And Take
Longer, http://bit.ly/18AlO9G], and we will give more examples of why
any recovery will take more time.

The one caveat would be a V-type bottom, when price takes off from
a low. Because Anything Can Happen, and no one knows in advance
how a market will unfold, it is mentioned as a possibility.

Trading Range, [TR], - A, shows the wide range bar from April, and the close is mid-range the bar. Very often, that bar's range will contain
price behavior for several bars into the future. TR - B is pointed out
to demonstrate that an ensuing TR can take quite some time. Going
into the last week of May, the range has been under the close of April, telling us the attempt to rally has been weak.

Even with the sharp decline from last month, and the overall decline
since September of 2011, there is still bullish spacing. It occurs when
the current swing low is above the last swing high, from 2008. It tells
us that buyers have been willing to buy into the market without
waiting to see how the last swing high will be tested, an overall bullish condition.

The importance of a wide range bar is that it tells us of the likelihood
of a trading range. One can either sell the top of the range and buy
the bottom of the range, or wait, knowing that the market is unlikely
to rally higher or break lower, for an unknown period of time and then
follow the breakout.

You can see how price has already spent five weeks within the wide
range bar with a close in the middle. The high of the range has
provided resistance, and the lower portion has been support. Last
week's close was in the upper portion of that range, telling us buyers
were in control at lower price levels.

Keep in mind, however, that the trend remains down, and the onus is
on buyers to show a change in strength. We do not see that, yet, but this is the paper market. Buyers have amply demonstrated demand in
the physical market, but it is no avail, for now.

The wide range bar scenario is uniformly persistent over all three time
frames. The daily activity looks weakest of all, but still within the
range parameters described. Using the "knowledge of the market,"
from the low of the range, we did use it to advantage to make a
short-term trade off the lows, with success. It was an against-the-
trend-trade, but we used the smaller time frames and the knowledge
that the lower end of the TR would be support, as a basis for it.

Silver tells a more interesting story. It has been weaker than gold, but the current developing market activity shows promise within a
weakened environment. Bullish spacing has been eliminated, and the
swing high from 2008 has proven to be support, at least for now.

We drew down sloping channel lines, and interestingly, silver is holding
above the 50% of the channel range, not going to the bottom demand
line. The underlying implications are bullish, within the context of a
prevailing downtrend. It does not mean one should be buying futures,
based on this, just that price is holding relatively well in a bear market.

Entering the last trading week for the month, at this late date, the
range is relatively small, which tells us that buyers are meeting the
efforts of sellers, preventing sellers from moving price lower. It does
not mean price will not go lower before month's end, but based on the
facts available, it is a positive sign. It could take more time for buyers to turn the futures market around, but it has to start from somewhere.

Wide range bars are not inviolate, evidence by the weekly chart. Price did go under the low of the wide range bar, but note the location of
the close, at the high of the bar and just above the last week's low-
end close of a selloff week.

The chart comments relate the current daily activity. Just like TRs
reveal important high/low information, failed probes also provide clues
about the character of the market. The 3 points made explain what
the clues are. The lack of continuation higher speaks to the overall
trend being down, weighing on attempts to rally.

We continue to recommend buying the physical, regardless of price,
and be very selective if/when trading the futures.

Saturday 18 May 2013

We are going to start off with one of the most eye-popping pictures ofjust one central bank, the privately owned corporate Federal Reserve,
and its purported gold holding. Occasionally, we drop a bit of history
that most people either ignore or simply do not believe, but this one
cannot be conveniently shunted aside.

One of the provisions in the FEDERAL Constitution, the 14th
Amendment, [the original, organic Constitution had only 10 provisions,
aka The Bill Of Rights], a hornet's nest for an unsuspecting public, we
our focus in on the one germane to the graph below. It is found in
Section 4:

The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and
bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion,
shall not be questioned.

Now, who do you suppose created the public debt by loaning out, first money, then fiat, and now just computer entries?

Who do you suppose is responsible for it?

The question few people think to ask is, Who had it inserted? The
NWO works in mysterious ways. but always lethal to the interests of
the remaining 99.5%

Now, look below at the chart to get an idea of the magnitude of the
outstanding debt that will never be repaid! We do not believe the
gold holding claimed is accurate, [if any gold alleged to be held exists,
at all], but we do believe the debt portion is accurately depicted. In
fact, it has grown larger since December 2012.

This is all about a banking crises! Gold and silver are being held as
hostages.

The central bankers have their overly-rehypothecated teat caught in the wringer of world-wide demand for physical gold, and they cannot
get it out. Their only recourse has been to drive down, crush would
be a better description, the fiat [paper] prices of gold and silver so
they can "buy" time to acquire whatever physical available to cover
their cheating ways.

Ironically, while these financial fiat-wizards are in a panic mode, of
sorts, they are able to buy physical at somewhat lower prices and
destroy the ability to take delivery for those if-you-do-not-hold-it-
you-do-not-own-it paper holders upon demand. "Sorry, but you can
only have paper fiat. Didn't you read the fine print?"

As we have been saying since 35 silver, 1800 gold; 30 dollar silver,
1700 gold; 25 silver, 1500 gold, etc, the issue is not price, rather, and
most importantly, it is all about having possession of the physical for
which there is an insatiable demand. We have been saying this for
many months: keep buying physical gold and silver regardless of
price. At some point in time, it may not be available to buy, except at substantially higher prices, or not at all. Better to be the proverbial
year early than a day late.

Over the last several years, gold and silver have steadily been moving
into stronger hands in its flight from greedy, cavalier, and arrogant
central bankers who never saw this coming. Why not? They have
been habitual drinkers of their own cool-aid.

Who comprises the stronger hands? Well, everyone knows about
China, Russia, India, Turkey, etc, but now there are the not-
previously-considered-as-consequential man and woman on the
street. Compelling, unprecedented demand has surfaced on the
streets of so many countries around the world with people buying
ounces and kilos, as they can afford, and these little buyers are no
less adamant in their desire to own and hold physical gold and silver
as are the larger Eastern countries.

However, the numerous stories about shortages of 1 ounce gold or
silver coins/bars, on up to kilo size, people waiting in line for hours to
buy what they can, etc, may make for good press and seem like a
"feel good" story, but in the battle for supremacy of control, the long
lines and unprecedented buying have done little to nothing in
preventing the fall in paper prices of gold and silver.

You think the central bankers are caught in a corner with no gold?
Well, yes, but that is not the story. If they cannot deliver gold or
silver, they will find another way out. You have seen their strategy:
MF Global, Cyprus, and more on the drawing board, coming soon to
your own [any] country.

Under normal circumstances, when supply is short and demand is
strong and growing, the price of such a commodity, good, or service
will increase. Just the opposite is happening in the gold and silver
markets. For right now, the central bankers are defying the natural
law of supply and demand, and it is working. Why is it working?
People are not objecting! People are passively taking whatever the
NWO/central bankers dish out.

What has been the fall out for the brazen theft of segregated
accounts at MF Global? Nothing! What has been the fall out of Cypriot account holders who saw their bank and savings accounts held
hostage by the outside European Commission, an organization that
has no lawful standing in that sovereign country? A lot of pissing and moaning, but ultimately, acceptance. Where is the outrage, the
intolerance for such blatant theft?

This is all about a banking crises. Central bankers view their
customers as central bank private ATMs, taking customer money via
service fees, late charges, withdrawal fees for accounts that want to
withdraw their own money. How crazy is that? Yet, people accept
it.

Now, the uber-wealthy are getting a taste of the "commoner's"
medicine. They are finding out that their allocated gold accounts are not as allocated as they thought. Just how not allocated? How
about, "The gold ain't there, anymore." We are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars in [un] allocated gold accounts in Switzerland.
This is more of a hush-hush situation, but ABN Amro's [default] notice
to its account holders that it will no longer deliver gold in settlement
anymore, is the tip of the golden iceberg.

That first chart, above, should be seared into your mind. It is a
graphic representation of how supply and demand have been
distorted. Look at how much money was created, and it may be a
worse picture for European central banks and countries. One does
not have to "suppose" some of that money is going to be used on the purchase of gold and silver, for it already is. Look at how much money is out there, and then think about how little is the supply of gold and
silver to satisfy the growing demand.

Should you be buying gold and silver at any price? If that chart does
not provide you with the answer, ask a 5th grader to explain it. Price
is not the issue. Availability is! We cannot repeat this enough.

The caveat is this: central bankers hold all the power cards, and they will play them, at all costs, and the costs will be yours to bear, Cyprus being a crystal clear example of what to expect. In all probability,
most expectations will be underestimated.

The bankers have fouled up the financial system, and now they want
the people to pay for their egregious financial errors. It is not enough that bankers have been stealing homes to which they are not legally
entitled to do, but the government fosters it. It is not enough that
bankers have received trillions of dollars in bail-out money, to cover
their losses. The bankers have been paid several times over, including
insurance for losses claimed, even though no actual losses may have
existed.

"You must pay your fair share," is the reasoning given for bank
accounts stolen, and now talk of a wealth tax to help keep the system afloat. The banks are too big to fail. What?!! Who created the loans
and took the risk of loss? The bankers. Let them fail! Let the
system fail! People will survive. The only casualties will be the
bankers, the "system." It is all about protecting the "system," and it
has nothing to do with protecting people. The people are there to be
fleeced, and that is what is going on.

If you choose to stay in the banking system, expect to take losses on
anything held in a bank. Read that sentence as many times as it takes to have it sink in.

What have the bankers been hell-bent on destroying and discrediting?
Gold and silver.

What do Mussolini, Hitler, and Roosevelt have in common? They each confiscated the gold holdings of their citizens, leaving them with no
wealth and dependent upon the STATE. It is always about the
system. Follow the money.

The New World Order uses central bankers to control all governments.
Who runs the governments of all Western-bloc countries? Ex-central
bankers. Where is their allegiance? So many questions, almost all
having the same answer.

Those in power will destroy you financially, in order for them to survive and keep control. Governments produce nothing. Every dollar spent
has to come from the private sector. The parasite is consuming the
host. Be prepared.

The Quarterly chart is why we say the true story is all about time. Do not focus on how much demand there is for gold and silver, at any
level, be it country or individual. The demand side of the equation is
known, and better known by the central bankers than most. It is the
supply side that matters, and the supply side is comprised of factions from the NWO, and they will steal whatever you have to survive.
Based on the [non] reactions of those who have been stolen from,
they are taking it lying down, and the NWO sees it. The enemy has
time on its side, and it will be used to wear people down and become
disillusioned owing gold and silver. Keep the first chart in mind and
stay focused.

The chart comments can be viewed by clicking on the chart, a few
time, but this does not work on some sites that carry our article, so
we will reproduce the chart comments: [The comments pertain to the
paper market.]

A Qrtly chart is rarely looked at by traders. Its effect is controlling
over lower time frames. The reason for stating that a gold recovery
could take longer than most expect is illustrated here.

The wider range bar from 3rd Qtr 2011, with dashed lines at the high
and low, has been decisively broken to the downside by another fairly
wide range bar lower. The ease of downward movement is market recognition that sellers are in control. The current Qtr does not end
until 30 June, so the location of the close will provide very important
information and may provide a better understanding of the time
factor for recovery.

A weak close would tell us that it may take a few years for gold to
rally even just to the 1800 level. A look at the monthly chart gives
an example.

The chart comments aptly describe how the location of the close on
a bar lets us know who won between buyers and sellers for that time
frame, and it can provide clues as to what to expect in the next bar.

Because these charts reflect the paper COMEX prices, which ignore
true demand, the conclusions are based upon the distortion of the
supply/demand relationship.

Tuesday 14 May 2013

Half way through the month, and there has been but one trade
recommendation, and it was a losing one, at that. Here are a
representative group of charts from various sectors that illustrate the
problem for trading in these days of central planners taking over.

The only trade recommendation for May, so far, was the Australian
Dollar, primarily because it was in a protracted trading range, [TR], and near perceived potential support after forming a recent higher swing
low. You go with the facts available at the time of decision-making
and adjust, if necessary, as new developing market activity occurs.

The day identified as "dangerous" is because of the exceptional size of the range and how one can get financially "hurt" when they occur. We are constantly aware of that kind of potential in currencies which is
why we tend to stay away.

The corn chart is representative of the grains for April and May. There has been little to recommend in either direction, even with the trend favoring shorts.

Not much going on in the softs, either. Sugar remains at lows, and
coffee is, well, coffee, a New York market that can undress position
traders very quickly.

Neither gold nor silver were buys after the selling onslaught[er] by JPM in mid-April. Picking bottoms is a trading fool's game, and finding a
place to go short, advantageously, did not happen. at least for us.

The bond market is one of fiction, and it is very difficult to trade that
which is not real. The same is true for the Fed's stock market, the
primary [perhaps only] impetus for the current rally on relatively scant
volume. This is another market of pure fiction that is being manipulated by the Fed to "appear" safe and the only "game in town, as it seeks
to sucker in as much money as possible, making alternatives almost
financially non-productive.

The greatest risk in this bubble environment is less a consideration of return on money as it is a concern for a return of one's money.

Not much else to recommend.