edgetraderplus'  Instablog

Monday Evening 6 May 2013

We recommended a long position in the Australian dollar this morning,
1.0205. Markets have a certain logic to them, and there are times
when one can find a developing story that leads to a position.

There has been a protracted trading range, [TR], about 2 1/2 years.
What preceded it was an uptrend, and that gives direction for how to
view the developing TR. From the 2008 low to the 2011 high, price
rallied 50 cents. A half-way retracement of that range is the 85 area.
The developing TR has held well above that guide, above 2/3rds of the
range, making the ability to hold the higher level even stronger.

This is the developing context for the logic applied in making a final
determination.

This is a closer look at the weekly chart. Most of the TR, captured by the two horizontal lines, has been toward the upper reached of the
overall activity since July 2012. The clustering of closes and
overlapping ranges reflects a balance in the battle between buyers
and sellers. From balance come imbalance, once price leaves that
area.

The lack of follow-through at 2, retesting the rally bar of 1, suggests
support. Does the next lower time frame agree?

The lines connecting the swing highs and lows eliminates the "noise" in between. We see a higher swing high and a higher swing low, the
simplest definition of an uptrend.

After what appeared to be a potential rout by sellers, viewing the wide range bar lower on the highest volume, point 1, there was no downside follow-through. What happened to the sellers? Their absence,
logically, can only be accounted by the fact that buyers are more in
control than meets the eye.

The bar at 3 is wide range and lower, retesting area 2. The decision
to buy was predicated on the intra day chart that follows.

Bars 1, 2, and 3 caught our attention, more for the increasing volume
as price declined, but when combined with each price bar, the logic
behind how the intra day decline unfolded was not what it seemed,
i.e., just a sell-off.

The dashed horizontal line from the strong rally bar on 2 May is
potential support. Price declined exactly to that level, this morning,
and volume was the most at the low. The high effort at the low
produced no result. From bar 1, down to the low at 3, told us that
sellers were not as strong as would appear, if one did not have this
story in the context presented.

The recommended long was made after the low at 3. It is where risk would be least, and so far, price has held. There is no guarantee in
any trade. When the selection is based upon logic that places the
odds more favorably on one side more than the other, that is all one
can expect. Over a series of trade selections with increased odds,
the results are almost a certainty for profitable trading.

Long from 1.0205 with an initial stop at 1.0148.

Saturday 4 May 2013

Every morning in Africa, a Gazelle wakes up knowing it must outrun the fastest lion, or it will be killed and eaten. Every morning a lion
wakes up knowing it must outrun the slowest Gazelle, or it will starve
to death. It does not matter if you are a lion or a Gazelle...when the sun comes up each morning, you'd better be running. African Proverb

We see the lions as issuers of fiat, Gazelles as owners of gold, and
if you are uncertain as to which you are, the issuers of fiat will
financially eat you alive. Cyprus was an overt wake up call. Many
people in the U S think it will not happen to them. It already has.
Each morning, when the sun comes up, you must decide if you want
fiat or specie. One will slow down your ability to "run," the other will
give you the ability to "outrun."

In the "Battle For Investment Survival," you have a choice to make,
and your ability to survive depends on it. As Gerald Loeb
recommended, "Put all you eggs in one basket, and watch that basket
very carefully."

Switching analogies, central bankers, and specifically the privately
owned corporation, aka the Federal Reserve, are like some cuckoo
birds, the ones that deposit their eggs in another specie's nest. When
the eggs hatch, the baby cuckoo bird will push out the other specie's newly born birds to their death, and the unsuspecting parents raise
the cuckoo as its own.

At the time when the privately held Federal Reserve Bank
[unconstitutionally] took control of the US money supply in 1913,
currency was specie-backed by gold and silver. The egg had
hatched. Over the ensuing decades, the Federal Reserve removed
the gold backing behind United States Treasury Notes and had them destroyed. A few decades later, all silver-backed certificates were
finally removed, no longer "honored." [It is difficult to use the word
"honor" in federal world of dishonor.]

The unsuspecting public, like the unsuspecting new bird parents, came to accept fiat Federal Reserve Notes, [FRNs], as their own. The fiat-
issue functioned the same as the gold and silver specie-backed United
States Treasury Notes, buying and selling goods and services, etc, so
the bait-and-switch was successful. [This is a classic example of how
the NWO works, slowly over time, seemingly unperceptive, while
almost no one pays close attention.]

Unlike Cyprus, the green light for world central bankers to loot the
savings of bank depositors, the Federal Reserve central bankers have
been looting the United States via inflation since its takeover in 1913. The [lack of] "value" of a FRN is about 3 cents of what a 1913 FRN
was. [See US Purchasing Power Measured By Gold chart, click on
http://bit.ly/11M9uj4, first chart]. Inflation has always been
recognized as the most insidious and stealth means of stealing every
form of a nation's wealth.

Central bankers have but one solution for a country with
unmanageable debt: issue even more debt. Every country being
force-fed that medicine is dying from it. The sole survivors will be
the individuals who own the only successful antidote, gold and
silver.

What has been the consistent and persistent target attack made by
central bankers? Gold and silver, and none more overt than the one
launched on 12 and 15 April by JP Morgan. Gold and silver are the
antithesis of the destructive powers of central bankers. When all
you own is fiat, central bankers can forcefully destroy its value
through inflation, keeping its users in a captive mode of financial
slavery. This has been and continues to be the end-game of the
unelected elite, using the full force and control of central banks to
keep the unsuspecting public compliant and unable to financially
survive on their own.

The question of whether to buy gold and silver is an answer already
known by almost all who read commentaries like this. Should you
continue to buy more is a question, the answer to which is apparent
to most. For us, it is the best way to survive what is going to be a
worsening and even more brazen theft of whatever people have that
is unprotected.

Obviously, everyone needs to rethink what is safe, for depositing fiat
money in a bank has never been safe, as many are now just
discovering. Every deposit into a bank is considered a loan to the
bank. It becomes theirs, and the depositor is an unsecured lender,
by bank laws, the only laws that matter, these days. Be very clear
in understanding that reality.

If you do not hold it, you do not own it. We have repeated that
frequently, as we have also said not to leave gold and/or silver in any
institution, not just banks. Read this article about Operation Rize,
from the London Evening Standard, [ http://bit.ly/N4hdhR] . The
first several paragraphs describe how several of the safe deposit boxes contained what may be illegal holdings, as though the unwarranted raid were justified by the legally limited, 3, number of actual warrants.

"...the vast majority of the 3,500-plus box owners have turned out to
be innocent." They have been presumed guilty unless they can prove their innocence.

"Yet the true story of Operation Rize reveals something far more
chilling - a virtually un-noticed change in the law that strikes at the
very heart of the British justice system. Under the Proceeds of Crime Act of 2002 (known as POCA), valuables and cash above £1,000 are
presumed by the police to be the proceeds of crime, unless you can
prove otherwise, a total reversal of the presumption of innocence."

If you believe what happened in Cyprus will stay in Cyprus, what
happened in London will stay in London, you are ignoring your future.

Will the price of gold and silver continue to go lower. We think they
will. Does that mean you should wait before buying more? That has
now become a personal decision that needs to be viewed in the
context of what has been expressed above, and there are so many
other instances that can be cited.

There is no single answer, no right answer. However, one to be
considered is the "averaging down" concept. The notion is to average
the cost of ownership of something over time. Usually, buying
something that is going down is not a good practice. In this
instance, it is different. It is a matter of fiat fraud by central bankers
and a matter of survival by those in opposition.

What we know for sure is that those in power have power and will not
give it up easily. They will destroy anyone who gets in their way. As central banker Draghi stated: "We will do everything in our power to
save the Euro." He did not say "We" will do what we can to help out
the people of any sovereign nation. No central banker ever would.
You saw the form of their help in Cyprus. The sole objective is
preservation of the [unelected, unrepresented] central banking cartel.

The charts of gold and silver may no longer reflect the reality of supplyand demand, but they do serve a purpose to keep an eye focused on
the success or failure of the Powers That Be in their destined-to-fail
attempts to defend fiat currencies, at all costs, and reverse over
5,000 years of history of failure of such endeavors.

Our advice is to have a strategy to keep buying physical gold and
silver, according to your own needs and circumstances, and be smart
about it. Do not think you can outdo those who are in control, at
least in the short run. Averaging down, in current circumstances,
is a whole lot better than trying to pick a bottom.

As to the timing on when such a bottom may occur? It could well
be years from now, and that should be a realization in your personal
strategy. It could happen sooner, and most likely as a "surprise
event," where the prices of gold and silver will take off in a manner
that will defy belief. It can be anything in between. Laws may be
instituted making the purchase of gold and silver akin to an "act of
terror" against the government. No one knows how and when events
will develop, and that is the point.

There is no right answer. You cannot control what others do,
especially those in power. You can control what you do. Just keep
buying, regardless of price, because if/when the price of gold and
silver were to go lower, you may not be able to buy. If/when the price
of gold and silver were to go higher, it may be at such an accelerated
rate that any price in the past few years may seem cheap.

Ask yourself, how good are you at outperforming the market? Then,
act accordingly. Both gold and silver are now in confirmed
downtrends. It takes time to turn around a trend, and nothing will
happen otherwise until we see evidence that buyers are gaining
control, which certainly is not the case.

April's wide range with a close in the middle may contain price behavior within it for the next several months. If the range does not capture
price for a while, any break is likely to be lower.

The down channel is often a good barometer for how price may react
at each line. Price held the lower channel, even with the onslaught
on naked short selling of unprecedented amounts of gold that was
impossible to deliver, which was not the intent, anyway.

You can see how price rallies, since October 2012, became weaker and weaker, unable to approach the upper channel line. Use that as a
measure to see how subsequent attempts to rally compare. Keep in
mind, weak rallies lead to lower prices. Last week's small range was
not a sign of strength. Be wary of any rally ability to sustain itself.

We could see a reaction rally in the weeks ahead. If the ranges are
small and volume declines, signs of a lack of demand, it can be a
short-term selling opportunity in futures.

The monthly silver chart does not reflect what could be viewed as
ending action for the decline. If/as price rallies, it may be more of a
futures selling opportunity than a sign of recovery. As the structure
stands, odds favor lower price attempts.

The chart comment speaks for itself. Depending on how price rallies
back to the 26 area, it may be a clearer sign for shorting activity over
the near term. The potential for shorting the market is for futures only and unrelated to one's plan for buying physical gold/silver.

Saturday 27 April 2013

War [unofficially] declared on gold and silver!

The gloves are off, and central bankers are on a full frontal assault
against all [paper] holders of gold and silver. Ironically, that very
overt assault is the biggest clue of how fearful those in power really
are. Fear, a sign of weakness, and the New World Order does not
want anyone snooping behind their curtain of Oz.

Remember the adage, "Follow the money," the paper trail? All of the
Western countries drowning in debt, being force-fed to take on
more debt as the only solution, are symptoms, and that is where
central bankers want you to remain focused. They do not want
anyone to follow the money in reverse to discover the cause: their
fiat power is purely imaginary, just like the true value of what they
issue, worthless paper!

We covered how those in control will stop at nothing to maintain it
in our previous commentary, Central Bankers: You Are Golden Toast
On A Silver Spoon, [click on http://bit.ly/13nLItm if you missed it,
along with important growing demand.]

This is the Rothschild formula that has worked ever since Mayer
Amschel Bauer turned fiat alchemy into gold and built the House of
Rothschild. Lend, lend, lend money, and demand gold as payment in
return is the essence of how it works. People refuse to learn from
history. "Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who
makes the laws."

It is the lethal simplicity of this statement that has been unfolding
on the world stage for hundreds of years for everyone to see. Few
have paid attention.

You saw this when the United States went bankrupt in 1933, and
the foreign-owned Federal Reserve took over this nation's money
supply, pushed out and destroyed any and all gold and silver-backed currency, and replaced it with the commercial debt instruments in
circulation, Federal Reserve Notes, [FRNs]. What backs FRNs? Your
imagination! That, and the threat of the existing police state.

What is a Euro? Nothing but more imaginary money, backed solely by the belief that is has value. This is a large part of why the attack on gold was so relentless. The NWO wants to crush any idea of
imagining an alternative to their fiat control.

Those who understand the value of that barbaric relic are going to be the clear winners. Those who chose to hold paper were the
biggest losers, stopped out, washed out by a tsunami of no-margin-
required-short-selling. It was the JPMorgan version of, "I will huff,
I will puff, and I will blow your paper house down." That scenario
worked against all except those who built their financial "house" with physical silver and gold.

It is essential for your financial survival to buy and hold physical
gold and silver. There is no law against it, for now. These two
metals defy the law of gravity that governs all paper fiat. We
presented this chart by Sharelynx, a few weeks ago. It is the
proverbial picture worth a thousand words that clearly demonstrates how fiat always seeks its own level of [worthless] value. It is this,
getting to the root cause, [fiat], that was responsible for the
[temporary] crushing of PMs on the 12th and the 15th of April.

You can see how the reality is opposite to what people sadly
continue to believe. Change your belief, and you change your
reality. It is that simple. Those who continue to believe in the [no]
value of paper will continue to suffer.

JPMorgan, by far the largest naked short-seller in the gold market,
and proxy for the New World Order, which in turn is the leader of all
Western governments, declared open war against the precious
metals, [PMs]. Who were the losers? Those who built a "house" of
paper. For months, we have been strongly and unabatedly
advocating the purchase only of physical gold and silver, "with
impunity," and "at any price."

We have also advised not to buy futures. Those in futures lost their
hopes for the future of their paper holdings. They played into the
come-into-my-web premise fostered by the manipulators of the
paper markets. There has been a very cogent reason for the
repeated warning, If you do not hold it, you do not own it. Everyone gets to make choices, and everyone has to take the responsibility
for those choices. For those who chose paper, it has been an
expensive lesson

It is crucial that the buyers and holders of physical gold and silver
stay the course. What has been the purpose of the gold and silver
smackdown? It is the destruction of any belief that gold and silver
have value. Look at the above chart, again. Who has been the only
winner in the battle between fiat and other paper holdings vs
physical holdings? It has been that way for over 5,000 years, and it
ain't going to change this year or next.

[We do have some charts at the end of this commentary]

Not only should you stay the course in holding the physical, you
should continue to buy more! Price does not matter!!! Yes, the
price of gold and silver dropped to $1,320 and $22, but you could
not buy any at that level. What little was available before nothing
became available was subject to sharply increased premiums. How
much longer does anyone think that governments will continue to
offer gold and silver coins for sale?

Governments, directed by the NWO, do not want any competition to their fiat. None! The end game for fiat is drawing to a close, but
until that happens, governments are forcing people into paper as
much as they can before that paper house of cards collapses. Just
take a look at the paper-value-driven stock markets. The Fed is
keeping interest rates low for the sole purpose of giving easy money to bolster the entirely insolvent banking cartel.

With no returns on interest-bearing financial instruments, the only
alternative it the stock market, by government design. The Fed is
feeding whatever amounts of paper banks want to keep propping up the markets. Like every other paper-driven "asset," those markets
will also collapse. 2008 was your first and only warning of what can,
and will happen.

Gold and silver is a form of wealth. Wealth is anathema to
government because those who have wealth do not need to depend upon government for assistance. Stripped of their wealth, Americans have become dependent upon the government for survival. It is no
accident that the number of Americans receiving food stamps is at
its highest ever, and growing with each passing month. People on
Social Security depend on their checks for financial survival. Why?
They have no wealth! They have no means of financial
independence. They traded their freedom for a government
subsidized "safety" net.

Those Americans who own gold and silver can get along without any government hand-outs. They have financial independence. They are the only ones who came out of the gold/silver scare unscathed.
Yes, there has been a "loss" in the purported value of the bullion
markets, but it has prompted a world-wide buying spree with record
amounts of gold and silver coins/bars being sold, uncovering a
scarcity of supply of the physical.

Paper prices for gold and silver on the COMEX and LME are based
upon fraud and not a function of supply and demand. Whileexchange traded paper values are down, the demand for physical is going
through the roof.

Be aware, and be very, very careful. There will eventually be a flurry of financial firms going belly up. Banks are insolvent, holding
worthless derivative assets on their books. Bank account holders are being held responsible for paying for the vast losses by the bankers
who created them. Bank accounts are being frozen while mandatory
"haircuts" are imposed. Wealth taxes are in the process. The NWO
has become more desperate than ever. Anyone with money in banks will lose it. Gone. Stolen.

Recently, ABM AMRO sent a letter to its clients that the bank would
not deliver physical gold to satisfy any accounts asking for or demanding delivery. Only cash would be offered. There is your first
openly declared default, well, ABM is calling it something else, but
the result is the same. The gold ain't there! The cupboards are bare. To cover it up, the war on paper went into effect last weekend. Do
not fall for this financial scam.

Already, the exchanges will not deliver physical gold or silver to
meet contract demands. M F Global was one example of how
demand will be dealt with as the occasion arises. By smashing the
paper market, those who were long and stopped out will no longer
be able to make a claim for delivery, anymore. The message: Do not threaten our fiat system!

Buy gold. Buy silver. Everyone wants to get as much value for their
purchases as they can. However, we are getting closer and closer
to the time when the availability may not be there, at any price. As
we have been saying, Get while the getting is good! Get to knowyour bullion and coin dealers as best you can. They are your last
form of reliable supply. Expect to pay higher premiums. The
alternative may be the inability to buy at all.

If gold were to go to $3000 or higher, silver to $150 or higher, would you complain if you had to pay a higher premium to own either?
Would you be disappointed for not having paid a higher premium and not having bought more as a consequence? We are not being
cavalier about price, but this is also not a time to quibble.

The one last aspect about the gold and silver market for which no
one has an answer is the question of when? When will the price of
gold and silver take off? If anything can be learned by the take-
down of paper gold and silver, it will not be soon. In fact, it can
take years from now. You have been given clear warning that the
powers that be will NOT give up any time soon, or even readily. To
expect otherwise would be folly.

The United States is in the process of devolving into third-world
status. The fiat FRN is being forced out as a world reserve currency, especially by the BRICS, [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa].
The arrogant "leaders" within the US, driven by Fed policy, have
alienated the rest of the world with the unabated inflation inflicted
upon them. The US has become more and more financially isolated,
continuing with each passing week. None of this is being covered by the mainstream media because the government will not allow it.

It is this worsening condition, being kept from unsuspecting
Americans who cling to the outdated beliefs that America is the land of the free, and the best country in the world. Americans will be
kept in the dark for as long as the de facto corporate government
can get away with it. This is a different story, and one that needs
to be told, but it is not the time or place here. Instead, we will look
at the longer time frame charts to see what possibilities lie ahead as a timing factor.

A few points of importance to always keep in mind. We had been
holding out for the potential of support at the lows of the respective trading ranges on both gold and silver prior to the JPM smashdown.
That was a reasonable assessment up until those lows were to be
broken, for it was possible they could have held. Once broken, we
have new information from the market to reassess what may
develop from the new and currently developing market activity.

Throughout the above held notion of potential support, we did not
advocate being long the futures in either market, worth noting.
[Save for a few short-term buys that were net profitable, on
balance.]

The other important point to reiterate is what we often repeat,
"Anything Can Happen." The events of 12 and 15 April amply bear
that out. Prior to Friday the 12th, few expected what was to ensue. However, if one were prepared for the notion that Anything Can
Happen, the use of stops would have minimized any downside
exposure, for anyone who chose to be in futures. Never forget
those three words.

You should also know that when surprising events do occur, of
whatever magnitude, they almost always occur in the direction of
the primary trend. We always turn to the charts to read developing
market activity. For gold, an annual chart is used.

We take current developing market activity, as determined by the
market and translated into charts, as the means for reading the
message of the market. Almost no one looks at annual charts, but
they are more controlling than lower time frames, so what it says
can be quite significant.

These are different charts than we normally present, so it may take
three clicks on the chart to get the print to where it can be read.
The time factor from the chart may be disappointing to most, but it
should not alter one's plans to continue to acquire physical gold and silver.

The annual chart for silver does not have the same read as gold's.
The Quarterly chart has a clearer picture for potential support. Prior
to writing this commentary, we were of the mind that another
assault lower was a reasonable possibility. Should that be the case,
it had best be a shallow one, for silver is in a more precarious chart
position. A marginal lower low on less volume and smaller bars would
hold recent lows. If JPM has plans for another stronger drive, $20
silver is not out of the question.

This should not alter one's plans to acquire more physical silver. The reason has nothing to do with the absolute price of silver, but more
for the political environment for an ability or availability to be able to buy more. The government may simply stop minting silver coins, for
national security, or any reason it may want to justify while it
protects its fiat flanks.

None of this is a prediction of what will happen. Rather, these are
potential considerations within which one should be prepared should
any happen. The NWO is firmly in control, as has been witnessed in
Cyprus and Greece. People in both countries are more and more in
dire straights. Poverty levels are growing. Sadly, children are
suffering, with stories of them rummaging though garbage for meals
to survive. If you should ever doubt how callous and uncaring are
those unelected central bankers who are dictating to debt-ridden
countries, it can, and most likely will happen here. In many ways, it
already has.

As a final thought, and an important consideration, both charts are
of a fictional market, the "supply" side only, as the FED and JPM
wants you to view them. What is missing and cannot be charted is
the more realistic demand side. There are ample reports that you
have read, elsewhere, telling of the long lines around the world as
people, other than most Americans, know and understand the value
of owning physical gold and silver. The prices in the physical market
for large volumes was unaffected, for the most part. We are talking
about countries buying, like Russia, China, India, Turkey.

It is what does not show up in the paper charts that may be the
strongest part of what is really going on in both gold and silver. If
the demand is as has been reported, there is a limited downside
from here. However, keep in mind the "box" from the annual gold
chart. Even if the lows are in, there is still a lot of resistance from
existing anti-PM powers that will not go away, and it can, and most
likely will take longer than most want/expect for a substantial
increase in the prices for gold and silver. The one exception would
be a surprising V-Bottom, where price sling-shots to the upside.

Plan accordingly.

You may have to click on the chart 3 times to get a readable size
print of the chart comments