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Michael Noonan Edge Trader Plus Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he... More
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  • Gold And Silver: NWO "Problem-Reeaction" Ploy Stronger Than Fundamentals

    Saturday 8 February 2012

    The fundamentals for gold and silver worsen with each passing
    week, it seems, yet the price for gold and silver still languish in
    down trends. If everything is as precarious as is depicted in so
    many other articles citing how PMs are in dire straights, for the
    same deteriorating reasons presented with pinpoint numbers, as
    in reduced stocks of deliverable metals, increased transfers from
    West to East, why are gold and silver still near recent lows for the
    past two years?

    No one has offered answers to such a glaring fundamental
    discrepancy of excessively low supply, exceptionally strong demand
    and totally manipulated price.

    We remain of the mind that the elephant in the room that no one
    sees is the reason why PMs continue to be held hostage: the all-
    powerful elites, the New World Order, call them what you will. There is a seemingly invisible hand directing world affairs in ways few
    people can comprehend, and it is that inability to connect the dots
    that keeps the elites in power and the remaining people in the dark.
    This is an over-simplification, but on point.

    The modus operandi of the elites, grandfathered by the House of
    Rothschild, fathered by Mayer Amschel Bauer, who adopted the
    better sounding name "Rothschild," for the red sign that used to
    hang over the entrance of his house. No one has practiced the art
    of deception more than the group that sprung from the cunning
    mind of this man who understood the power of interest and
    translated into practice to gain control of the European
    governments, and ultimately, the entire Western world.

    Fast forward to today with total control of money, via central banks,
    that dictates to Western world governments. The elites have
    unlimited numbers of important heads of governments, unlimited
    numbers of agents to do their bidding and create problems on
    demand. The Arab Spring, the theft of money from Cyprus, Greece,
    Ireland, being the most obvious. How about the ransacking of the
    United States for the past 100+ years? The US is a hollowed out
    version of what it once was as a result from control of the elites.

    What is transpiring in Ukraine, since the president decided to not
    join the European Union, has been brought about by elite agents
    organizing a disorganized population to rise up against the
    government. It is widely known and acknowledged that Ukraine
    cannot afford to join the EU, in order to have the privilege of being
    financially raped once a member and controlled by the elite banking
    cabal.

    Ukraine is an effort to keep Putin from gaining control of natural gas
    pipelines that are a source of heat for much of Europe. It was the
    impetus behind the Obama regime to declare war on Syria, for
    similar reasons, only to have the war-driven leader dressed down by Putin.

    The elites create problems everywhere, but under the radar, mostly
    undetected, unless one begins to see how they operate and can then better understand why problems arise where they do and when.
    These are carefully planned operations. Once trouble develops, the
    elites then gauge how the public reacts and then offers solutions to
    the problems they purposefully created.

    The reaction to 9/11 in the US? The public was driven into fear, [the created problem], and the reaction was to embrace the solutions
    offered by the elite-controlled federal government, giving up
    "freedoms" for greater "security" against "terrorists." America has
    not been the Land of the Free for decades as a result of the true
    shadow rulers.

    Why did the popular Occupy Wall Street movement all of a sudden
    disappear? It ran the risk of putting the spotlight on that cesspool
    known as the venue for central banker control. How was the
    movement put down? By police force under the direction of the
    bankers, [who in turn are under the direction of the elites that keep
    themselves a few steps removed from any direct involvement, but
    always directing it]. Did the elite-controlled media ever question
    why the New York City police force was under the control of private
    banks? Former mayor Michael Bloomberg is an elite acolyte.

    The governments are controlled, the media is controlled, the legal
    systems are controlled, agriculture is controlled, [think Monsanto],
    the pharmaceutical industry is controlled, drugs are controlled, etc,
    etc, etc. All because of Rothschild's discovery that when one
    controls the money, one controls everything.

    What the arrogant elites did not expect was the rise of China and
    Russia, [after being dismantled and now put back together, again],
    as opposing forces not in control via the Western central bankers
    and their endless issuance of worthless fiat. All of a sudden,
    actually, over the past few decades, China and Russia, plus the other BRICS nations, have called the financial bluff of the moneychangers
    and demanded payment in gold for all the toxic U S Treasury bonds,
    [worthless, except in one's mind, just like the Federal Reserve
    Notes, erroneously called "dollars,"], and to keep the elite's huge
    Ponzi scam from being revealed, they have been selling every ounce of gold the have and also those they did not own but had under their control.

    It is all about power, the ultimate fundamental that drives
    everything, and gold has always been the Achilles heel for the elites, which is why they have always marginalized it in the public's mind.
    There is no gold in Fort Knox. It is gone. There are no silver stocks
    in the US. Gone! Roosevelt used an Executive Order, stating all
    "persons" must turn in their gold or be penalized an exorbitant
    amount.

    First of all, Executive Orders issued by any President only apply to
    Federal officers of the government. That is it! People did not know
    that, and the elite-controlled federal government made no effort to
    dissuade anyone of that misconception. [There are so many, many
    others.]. Secondly, the definition of a "person," according to laws
    passed by the federal government, includes corporations. A
    corporation is a "person." All corporations are created by statute,
    making them fictions of law of the state in which it is incorporated.

    When Roosevelt issued his Executive Order, it did not, by law, apply
    to individuals as persons, but to corporations as "persons." Any
    individual who considered him/herself as a "person," made that
    [uninformed] choice freely. Things have not changed. How does
    Obama rule? He passes Executive Orders and by-passes Congress,
    a puppet clan, anyway.

    The end game is not totally in place. China has no interest in having the "value" of its ever-increasing gold hoard rise, not while it can
    acquire it at current low prices. Remember the sale of JP Morgan's
    crown jewel office building, One Chase Plaza, to China, for $750
    million? That is probably less than half of its market value. It also
    housed the world's largest gold vault, directly connected to that of
    the Federal Reserve, across the street via and underground tunnel.

    To keep China from dumping all of its worthless Treasury paper, and
    destroying the "dollar" and ruining the elite Ponzi scam, China is
    being accommodated by the US elites via half-price sales of coveted
    assets. China is buying both gold and America on the cheap.

    Russia is not quite secure in total control of the natural gas pipelines that are being opposed by the West, particularly the Nobel Peace
    Prize president that is conducting more wars than any other leader
    on the planet. Ukraine is pay-back to Putin by the elites, trying to
    divide Ukraine into EU submission and away from Russia. This is
    why Ukraine "opposition" to the government has been so strong and
    persistent. It is the work of the well-paid agents on the payroll of
    the elites. Many of those same agents were at work in Egypt and
    other Arab countries during their "staged" uprisings.

    The point to be made from these somewhat broad assessments, any of which can be verified by doing one's own due diligence, is that
    gold and silver are being held hostage by the elites to keep their
    world power alive. It has not yet been determined how those in
    power will survive, and they are likely working fast and furious
    behind the scenes with China to keep the gold/silver scam alive,
    making whatever deal[s] they can to keep control over their flagging Western empire and crumbling fiat scheme.

    Last Fall, we said the rally in PMs would take longer than most
    expect. Expectations were unmet in 2013, and it is possible that
    2014 may be no different. So far, the charts give no hint to the
    reality of the gold/silver situation. We also know of no other source
    of market information that has been more in sync with price as it is
    and for whatever reasons.

    Gold is well under a 50% retracement between the last swing high
    and low. This is just a general guide to indicate the strength or
    weakness of a market. The farther away price is under the half-way area, the weaker the market. More of an issue is the bearish
    spacing. Whenever there is a space between the last swing low and
    the next swing high that fails to close that space, it indicates that
    sellers are more aggressively in control.

    Based on the weekly chart, gold give no indication of beginning a
    strong rally that will change the trend, any time soon.

    The trend is always treated with respect as the most important
    first piece of information because it captures the prevailing price
    momentum. The best way to trade successfully is in harmony with
    the trend. Regardless of whatever information that portrays the
    reality of dwindling supply for gold, the reality of the charts takes
    preference because the charts are more driven as to timing, and
    now is not the time to be long futures, just yet.

    The reading of charts is always in opposition to the ongoing
    purchase of the physical metal. Given the circumstances driven by
    central bankers, at some point, reality will rear itself onto center
    stage, and the physical will outperform almost every other asset
    class, and just as importantly, availability may not exist. Keep on
    buying the physical.

    GC W 8 Feb 14

    The charts keep the paper market in context. At some point, the
    price expectation that actually reflects true supply and demand will
    align, but now is not that time. For as long as the trend remains
    down and price is well under a 50% retracement, the market is
    weak.

    There has been a series of overlapping bar, seen in the box.
    Overlapping bars indicates a struggle between buys and sellers for
    control. There is a temporary balance, and it will eventually lead to
    an imbalance as price next moves directionally.

    The lack of downside follow-through, after the highest volume bar 7 TDs ago, has been an anchor for the current rally, of sorts. The
    caveat as to which way price will move from here is the trend, which favors lower price behavior until there is an indication of change. Right now, such an indication is absent. Of minor concern is the
    location of the closes for the 3 bars at the end, tending toward the
    lower range of each bar. The offset is the fact that despite apparent
    weakness, price did not move lower.

    If gold trades higher next week, the daily trend will turn up, and
    confirmation will come from a lower swing high on the next
    correction.

    GC D 8 Feb 14

    The same applies to the buying and accumulation of physical silver.
    Based on the ratio for gold/silver, strongly in gold's favor, the next
    sustained bull market may well favor silver outperforming gold. We
    strongly advocate the buying of physical silver.

    The silver chart is similar to gold but more compact, and weaker, in
    general. Comments on the chart explain our view of that developing market.

    SI W 8 Feb 14

    Silver has been "looking" like it could be forming a bottom, but the
    fact that price is so far not showing any ability to rally, and the
    continual hugging of this low area may mean that there is insufficient demand. In order to find demand, silver may have to
    go lower before it can go higher.

    We will just have to wait until supply and demand are resolved.

    SI D 8 Feb 14

    Feb 08 6:37 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Taking Stock Of Silver Stocks - SLW, PAAS, CDE, AG, SSRI, HL

    Wednesday 5 February 2014

    We are of the simple opinion that any substitute for the real thing
    is never as good a choice as the original, even when it comes to
    Precious Metals. There are so many other considerations that enter
    the picture when regarding mining stocks. One of the primary ones
    is management, what it can do to a stock's performance separate
    and apart from its underlying purpose, silver production. There can be poor management, mismanagement, decision-making related to
    stock performance instead of getting the maximum performance out
    of its mining operations, overspending, misspending...you get the
    idea.

    Here is a reading of some of the top silver mining companies from
    a chart perspective. Charts show the best bottom line results from
    all observations one can make in an assessment of any company.
    While we see it as a way of cutting through everything else, this
    shortened version of viewing a company from a purely results-
    oriented perspective, via reading a chart, should not be quickly
    dismissed. In fact, from this kind of look, one might more easily
    see the value in dismissing some of the stocks as buy candidates.

    Another important consideration to be held in mind is to always buy
    strength over weakness. Do not buy a stock because it is low, and
    you think it may rally and play "catch-up" with the rest of the
    market. There are very valid reasons why any stock is weaker,
    relative to other companies in the same sector.

    In no particular order:

    However one wants to view SLW, the performance is slightly weaker
    to the metal itself. It is a positive that the last sell-off has taken 17 weeks to retrace the prior 9 week rally. The last 4 weeks on the
    chart show a clustering of closes. A clustering denotes balance
    between the efforts of buyers and sellers. From balance comes
    unbalance. A look at the daily chart may give a hint as to which
    way the unbalance will go.

    SLW W 5 Feb 14

    It seemed a little more positive on the weekly as the daily chart
    shows issues for buyers to overcome more than for sellers. The
    arrow points to an ease of movement lower, 8 TDs ago, [Trading
    Days]. Buyers have not been able to regain ground lost in a single
    day over the next 7 TDs of effort.

    The position of price, under a 50% retracement, is relatively weak.
    It does not mean that buyers cannot overcome resistance, but they
    have to put in a better show, now.

    SLW D 5 Feb 14

    We do not show the 50% retracement area for PAAS, but it is
    apparent from the eye that price is not even close. The gauging
    of how price is, using a 50% mark, is a general guide that demonstrates overall weakness, being unable to rally to that level,
    or strength, when price can rally to, and even exceed a half-way
    retracement.

    The sloping down trend line was broken, last July, but the breaking
    of a trend line is much less significant than overcoming a horizontal
    resistance supply line; the one at $14. The designation of an "Axis
    Line" is one where previous price support has now become one of
    resistance.

    PAAS W 5 Feb 14

    Here, you can see the validity of horizontal lines being significantly
    more important. The TR, [Trading Range], from last August led to
    a decline, so expect it to act as resistance whenever price rallies
    back to it. That rally occurred in January, and price encountered
    selling because those sellers who went short, last August, are
    defending their territory, as it were.

    What is positive about where PAAS met resistance, currently, is that
    price has not sold off as it did last August. It appears buyers are
    meeting the effort from sellers and preventing the market from
    going lower. Sellers have the edge, based solely on overall market
    conditions, so it is up to buyers to overcome sellers to gain control.

    PAAS D 5 Feb 14

    On the scale of relative strength or weakness, PAAS, for example, is
    stronger than CDE. Given a choice between the two, PAAS should be bought over CDE. Compare where PAAS is trading over the last
    several weeks, relative to where CDE is trading, and the concept of
    relative strength becomes very clear.

    Bearish spacing occurs when the last swing rally high is under the
    last swing rally low, and the two horizontal lines, one above 20, the
    last swing low from the end of 2012, and the line above 15, showing the last swing high. Whenever there is a space, it indicates a much
    weaker market because sellers did not need to wait and see how the last swing low would be tested. They were aggressively selling into
    the rally above 15, leaving the telltale space.

    CDE W 5 Feb 14

    The negative read on the weekly is amplified by the closer detail on
    the daily chart. It speaks for itself.

    CDE D 5 Feb 14

    The chart comments need not be repeated. AG is laboring. The
    inability to rally even above a 1/3 retracement speaks to the general weakness of this stock. Mention was made from the outset that
    reading a chart cuts through all other considerations, particularly
    fundamental ones, and gives a clearer picture of how a company is
    faring on its own, and more importantly, relative to other companies in the same sector.

    AG W 5 Feb 14

    Where are the buyers?

    AG D 5 Feb 14

    The swing highs and swing lows were connected to give a slightly
    different way of looking at how a stock is performing.

    SSRI W 5 Feb 14

    Where the weekly SLW seemed that it would lead to a more positive look on the daily chart, which the daily failed to do, SSRI has a more positive look on the daily than one might have expected from
    viewing the weekly.

    There is still some work to do for buyers to overcome sellers, but
    the direction of price, since the last swing low, is at least pointing
    upwards. How SSRI is able to recover from the recent sell-off, or
    not, will give an important clue in what to expect, moving forward.

    SSRI D 5 Feb 14

    Look at where price is, relative to resistance at the $4 level. This
    is another relatively weak performer and one that should raise
    questions as to why it should be bought, or even held.

    HL W 5 Feb 14

    The takeaway from this exercise is to 1. demonstrate the importance of the ability to read a chart, based solely on price and volume activity. Note that no reference was made to any mechanical
    technical tools, like RSI, Moving Averages, etc. They are not
    accurate as to timing, and if not, why bother with them? 2. The
    importance of relative strength when assessing whether to buy one
    stock over another within the same sector, or even buying in one
    sector relative to another one that is clearly performing better.

    The objective is to be profitable, and the above analysis has
    provided examples of how one goes about improving one's effort
    in attaining that objective.

    HL D 5 Feb 14

    Tags: Silver, SLV, SLW, PAAS, CDE, AG, SSRI, HL
    Feb 05 8:40 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Gold And Silver - Call For Explosive Upside In PMs Misplaced

    Saturday 1 February 2014

    So far, January 2014 has become a part of the failed rally for gold and
    silver that was so widely expected in 2013. That has not stopped the
    renewed enthusiasm for 2014 being THE year for the long awaited
    rally-to-the-sky. Anyone who reads our commentaries on a regular
    basis knows that the most reliable source for what the market will do
    comes from the market itself.

    The contention here is that almost everyone's focus is misplaced, and
    the reasons why gold and silver remain at low levels are not being
    given their proper due. It has to do more with the battle for world
    supremacy than anything else, a topic for another time.

    The fundamental news has not changed. In fact, the shortages for
    gold and silver increase with each passing month, and with each
    passing month, the MARKET has been telling a different story, as in
    the trend remains down. Before gold and silver can rally, they first
    have to stop going down.

    It is not that the fundamentals are flawed; facts are facts. The biggest issue has been one of timing, and unless and until you see a huge rally over 1400 in gold and 26 in silver, you are likely to see February and
    March pass along like January just finished.

    Not everyone is interested in charts, we accept that and can
    understand why, given the way many charts are presented, more for
    sensationalism to back up a catchy headline for an article than for
    realistic content. People who make predictions are blowing smoke in
    the readers face. All the "predictions" for 2013 should be sufficient
    proof, yet the pattern has already started to be repeated for 2014.

    Not everyone can properly read a chart. It takes years of concerted
    effort, and most people want easy answers in a few brief sentences.
    What almost everyone has is common sense, and the markets are
    replete with logic that makes sense. It can often take an art form for
    analysis, but if you are willing to put aside any predisposition about
    looking at charts as a waste or too foreign to understand, then try to
    follow the logic of what is presented, and you will have a more realistic understanding of what to expect, moving forward.

    We have 8 charts, 4 for gold and 4 for silver. At no time will there be
    any discussion of any fundamentals, severe shortages, calls for much
    higher prices, etc. The charts do not show any of that, at the
    moment. In fact, they tell a story that makes sense. The story may
    not appease the need for hearing how gold and silver are going to be
    X amount higher, sometime soon.

    History is on the side of failed paper fiat currency, while gold and
    silver being among, if not the best assets to succeed in a big way in
    the wake of paper asset demise.

    The two down sloping TLs, [trend lines] show market direction, or
    trend, and we know logically that trends perpetuate and only change
    gradually, for the most part. There is a 50% line shown on the chart. Generally, when a market cannot regain above the half way mark
    within a trend, it tells you that the trend will continue, directionally.

    Wide range bars and stand out volume bars are important market
    tools. Very often, a wide range bar will contain future price
    development for some period of time. Last June was a wide range
    bar, shown on the chart. All of the past six months have been trading
    within the high and low of June's range. The point is, when you see a
    wide range bar on a chart, the probability is for price to be range-
    bound by it for several periods into the future.

    Another way charts inform is by observing how many bars in a rally,
    and how may bars it takes to correct the rally. From the June low,
    there was a 2 bar, [2 months] rally. The correction, or retracement of the rally took 4 bars, or twice as long. This tells us that it was easier
    for buyers to rally the market than it was for sellers to force it down,
    taking twice as long. This piece of logic tells us buyers are stronger
    than sellers, at that point in time.

    The opposite of a wide range, which shows ease of movement, is a
    small range bar, one that makes very little directional progress. The
    last bar in the decline had the smallest range. What that tells us is
    that buyers were more than meeting the effort of sellers, and that
    effort on the part of buyers prevented the range from going lower.
    From that, we know demand is in greater control. If demand is in
    control, the market should rally.

    Essentially, what we are doing is putting little pieces of a puzzle
    together that should tell some kind of story.

    No matter what you hear or read about gold and the prospects for
    substantially higher price levels, the trend is down, exactly opposite of what you know. When you compare what you know, an opinion, with
    what the market is telling you, the market is a more accurate
    measure, however counter-intuitive it may be to your opinion[s].

    GC M 1 Feb 14

    We can see from the weekly charts that gold remains in a relatively
    weak status. It is both under the TLs and the 50% mark. However,
    there was an interesting development in the weekly range just ended. We said sharp increases in volume can be important. Last week was
    the highest volume since the June 2013 low. There is not a
    substantial difference in the two volume levels, yet compare the range for last June with the range for last week.

    Last week was about 1/3 the size of the June bar. Here is where logic
    come in. If there was almost as much volume last week as last June,
    but the size of the bar was so much smaller, then we can gain an
    insight into the character of the market. The same volume effort
    produced less downside results, and not a wide range lower as
    occurred in June.

    This is a red flag. Why was the range smaller?

    Because buyers were much stronger than sellers and this prevented
    the range from extending lower. We are getting information from the
    market that says sellers were unable to push price lower, as they did
    last June. If buyers can sustain that caliber of effort, it will lead to a
    rally, and eventually, a change in trend.

    GC W 1 Feb 14

    Changes in trend appear on the smaller time frames first. Price is
    under the TLs on the monthly and weekly charts. On the daily chart,
    below, price has broken the TL down and is now moving sideways.
    The lead month for gold futures is now April, so the previous volume
    activity was stronger in the February contract, and the volume prior
    to last week is not reliable, as viewed on the April chart.

    There was a wide range bar to the upside, [arrow 1], and that
    indicates ease of movement to the upside. It started a 3 bar rally,
    followed by a 5 bar decline. In other words, it takes more time and
    effort for sellers to correct the last rally. Look at the high volume for
    the bar [at arrow 2], and it is a relatively wide range bar lower. What
    would be expected is for the downside momentum to continue, but
    that did not happen, as we see in bar 3. This is also a red flag,
    alerting us to a market imbalance.

    In fact, we took a small long position near the close on Friday, for
    reasons just cited, and also from looking at an intra day chart, not
    shown here, but we do have one for silver.

    GC D 1 Feb 14

    NUGT is a 3X bullish gold ETF. We took a look to see what the market
    sentiment was in that more leveraged arena. When we last looked at
    it, several months ago, it had flat-lined. There appears to be some
    change in sentiment over the recent few months.

    What stood out in price was how the market hugged the lows, and
    January turned into the opposite, as price was now hugging the
    resistance area. The long price holds, without backing away lower, the odds favor an upside breakout as buyers are absorbing the sellers.

    The volume backs up the price activity. During span "A," while price
    was in decline, volume was relatively lower than when price
    subsequently rallied during span "C." This tells us that demand has
    been greater as price rallied, a bullish development. During span
    "B," volume was at the relative highest, and this tells us smart money
    was accumulating long positions, in preparation for a mark-up phase.

    The stage is being prepared for some kind of rally in gold. We do not
    know how much of a rally, in advance. Instead, we look for signs of
    buying activity, like the absorption in NUGT. Once price breaks out to
    the upside, that would be the trigger to be long ETFs and futures.

    Anyone buying paper futures, based on the very bullish fundamentals
    for the physical, has been taking a beating, as it were. By simply
    paying attention to the trend and other pieces of market information,
    there has been no reason to be buying futures. A read of what the
    charts have been saying has kept one from taking unnecessary risk
    exposure and losses in trading.

    NUGT D 1 Feb 14

    The same market logic prevails in silver as we just saw in gold. The
    very small range for December was a red flag bar, a warning to sellers that buyers were stronger, evidenced by an inability for sellers to
    extend price lower in a down trend. This is a clear market message.

    January, last bar, failed to continue lower as it formed a higher high
    and a higher low. We take that information to see how it translates on
    the next lower time frame.

    SI M 1 Feb 14

    By itself, last week's performance suggests price should go lower. A
    look at the next lower time frame, a daily chart, should be more
    informative.

    SI W 1 Feb 14

    Clearly, silver has been locked on a TR since mid-November. A
    question that arises is, why have not sellers been able to push price
    lower? Activity for the last half of January shows a labored effort by
    sellers. It is taking twice as long to decline as it took to rally, and
    that suggests buyers are in greater control down here than sellers.

    We do not often show intra day charts, even though we watch them
    closely every day. A long position was recommended at the end of the day. The intra day chart better shows why.

    SI D 1 Feb 14

    You already now know that wide range bars and high volume bars are
    important to watch. At number 1, there is both, combined. The
    reason high volume bars are so important is because the volume is
    generated by smart money usually seeking to establish a position.
    Smart money buys low and sells high, and it is the public that is
    always on the other side of the trade.

    The analysis is labeled and explained on the chart. We leaned on the
    high volume and wide range bar as a reason to take a long position.
    With price so near the bottom, we are able to keep risk low, in the
    process. A rally above 19.20 - 19.30 will confirm the analysis, which
    is nothing more than a process of applying logic to developing market
    activity.

    SI 20m 1 Feb 14

    Feb 01 2:45 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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