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ogm

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  • Is Record-High Market Overvalued? [View article]
    The "average PE since 1988" Is a deceiving metric, because it includes an aberration P/E during the 2000 peak, which was near 40.
    Try calculating it without that, and you'll see that its much lower.
    Mar 9 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is About To Destroy Its Business [View article]
    Exciting content ? Like what ? More ads ? ;) What do you consider exciting content ?

    FB got so many users because of addictive Zynga games, like FarmTown. And it was also attractive because of a simple and clean layout. Now they are ruining the layout, first with the Timeline, that makes it look cluttered, and now with more ads, especially the ads inserted into the feed.
    Feb 20 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is About To Destroy Its Business [View article]
    Facebook is definitely desperate. The recent feature where you can pay $7 to promote your friend's posts smells really bad already. And video ads will just drive more people away.

    Advertising on FB has very low ROI already, since people don't go to FB for commercial purposes, like Google searches or even LinkedIn. They go there for social reasons and advertisement is a nuisance that they have to tolerate. And excessive ads will simply drive users away. Interaction with the site will drop, people will spend less time on the site and FB revenue will drop accordingly.

    We've tried advertising on FB for our small business and clickthrough rate is beyond miserable. And those few clicks that do get through aren't worth much either.

    Don't know about short to zero, but this shouldn't be trading anywhere above upper teens, thats for sure.
    Feb 18 03:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Iffy Quarter For Facebook When It Needed A Win [View article]
    1. FB is growing earnings at 30% ONLY because they didn't have any mobile advertising last year to begin with. What will the growth rate be a year from now ?
    2. Penetration of FB is too high. Barely any new users growth. North American growth was 7%, most of the growth in users came from outside US and Canada. US and Canada users are worth $4 in average revenue per user, while other countries are worth only $1.5
    3. Company has now said that mobile users is over 50% of the users, while mobile revenue is only 23% of the revenue. This is a permanent shift to lower margins.

    The growth looks OK, comparing to last year, when there was no mobile advertising, but a year from now it will look disastrous.
    Feb 4 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Picks For The Holiday Season - A Contrarian View On J.C. Penney [View article]
    Ok, lets see ... The company is pursuing an "every day low pricing" strategy in order to attract more "mobile, less price conscious customers" ... am I the only one who sees a major inconsistency in this ?

    Thats the problem with JCP.. they are a dinosaur and are viewed as a dinosaur.They don't have any image, and they don't target any specific customer based. Who are JCPs customers ?
    Nov 24 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Blue Nile's Q3 Revenues Will Disappoint Investors [View article]
    I understand that Alexa isn't most reliable indicator, however, try typing in searches, like "diamonds", buy diamonds, buy diamond ring, engagement ring, buy engagement ring, and see how many times BlueNile shows up near the the top of the searches or on the front page at all. Barely ever.
    Sep 23 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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