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michael rothschild

michael rothschild
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  • Procter & Gamble Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Click on the words Procter Gamble in the 1st sentence in the article.
    That is the link to the quantitative analysis Pdf.
    Dec 30, 2013. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX - Options Volatility Sonar: Wednesday Recap [View article]
    Erick,
    thanks for your online reply(and email) to my question on mondays recap about the unusual moves of VXX,TVIX and XIV.

    I trade SPX futures so I am aware of the difference between the cash VIX, which is an index (based on Puts and calls on SPX), and the VIX Futures and options on those Futures.
    I was hoping for a drop to 20 on the VIX as you were, but it seems we are on the razors edge, and even from one close to the next open anything can and sometimes does happen.
    Thanks for your articles, I look forward to them and we have some of the same positions in common.
    I receive a mid-day and after the close update from Options express, so I see a lot of the same activity as you during the day.

    here is their take on the VIX today.

    The top index options trade, on a relatively slow day of trading Wednesday, is in the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX). VIX is up .46 to 21.15, but still a far cry from levels seen a few months ago – when the market's "fear gauge" screamed to the mid-40s in early-October. Yet, while VIX has been easing lately, trading in the product remains active. 126,000 calls and 63,000 puts traded in the VIX pit so far today. More than half of the put volume is due to one block of 33,000 January 24 puts traded at $1.95 per contract. It might be a closing trade on the view the recent decline in VIX has run its course for now. January options on the VIX expire next Wednesday and due to the exchange holiday Monday, only three trading days of life are remaining in the contract after today.
    Jan 11, 2012. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX - Options Volatility Sonar: Monday Recap [View article]
    thank you for your "options volatility sonar"
    series.
    Did you notice the strange performance of Volatility ETFs today??
    any comments?
    the vix closed UP 2.13%,

    VXX (long vix)closed DOWN 1.45%, and

    TVIX (2X long vix)closed DOWN 2.75%

    XIV (inverse vix) was up 1.66%!

    ALL 3 of these ETFs did the exact oposite of what they are supposed to do.
    I have been trading VXX for a few years,
    and the others for a few months.
    I have never seen this happen before,
    in these ETFs, although I have seen it several times with leveraged silver ETFs.
    again,
    thanks for your articles
    Jan 9, 2012. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Strategies To Capitalize On Market Trends [View article]
    Over the last 6 months RYMFX is down 12%
    over the same period WDTI is down 15%

    I am curious why anyone would write an article
    about these 2 funds?

    In the 1st 4 months of 2011 WDTI was up 6%
    and RYMFX was up 4%
    Oct 28, 2011. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Preferreds: A Better Fixed Income Bet [View article]
    What you are writing about is not technically preferred stock.
    F-PA is a non cumulative Exchange Traded Debt Security.

    I bought some of these last year at a discount,why anyone would pay a premium is beyond me!
    ALL of mine were called within 6 months.
    here is a brief description from Quantumonline.com

    Ford Motor Co., 7.50% Notes due 6/10/2043
    Ticker Symbol: F-A CUSIP: 345370852 Exchange: NYSE
    Security Type: Exchange-Traded Debt Security

    Units are expected to trade flat, which means accrued interest will be reflected in the trading price and the purchasers will not pay and the sellers will not receive any accrued and unpaid interest.
    The Notes are unsecured obligations of the company and will rank equally with all existing and future unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness of the company.
    Oct 13, 2011. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enhanced Income Strategy For AT&T [View article]
    mtnpapa,
    since there are no $42 strike calls in Jan.,
    I am guessing you sold the $31 strike?

    It is none of my business, but since you said you are "getting your feet wet", I wish you good luck, but in my opinion risking 1000 shares of T for $420, not including commissions is quite risky unless you bought your T around the 3/09 lows.
    The lowest price for all of 2010 was about
    $24.
    I am not criticizing you, but if the rally from today continues, you will see the price on the call go much higher( that is not good for you)

    I know because I have done the same thing when I started selling covered calls.

    again, good luck, who knows what tomorrow brings?
    Oct 10, 2011. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enhanced Income Strategy For AT&T [View article]
    cani99,
    My comment was based on support and resistance levels, although I did not use that term.
    Sell Puts at support and covered calls at resistance.
    Good comment!
    Oct 9, 2011. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enhanced Income Strategy For AT&T [View article]
    Instead of trying to sell puts or covered calls based on a certain time period, in your example you used 3 months.
    What I do is sell ATM or slightly OTM Puts ONLY when the market is selling off big time.
    I rarely have the stock assigned to me, and collect a much larger premium because those who believe in buying Puts for protection??? will HAVE to pay a high price.

    on the other end, when the market is going parabolic and everything is coming up roses,
    that is the best time to sell OTM covered calls.
    to get a really high premium it is sometimes better to sell a C.Call Leap.
    sometimes you can get a tremendous premium on a Leap C. Call using a strike 25-30% above your entry price!
    I have never been assigned or had my stock called away using this technique, in fact I have tried to buy more T by selling ITM Puts, and even when T dropped below the buyers
    "break even" I could not get assigned.
    Great article, it is the 1st one of yours that I have read, but I am adding you to my "follow" list.
    thank you!
    Oct 9, 2011. 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Set To Sell Off [View article]
    I trade the Russell 2000 using TNA/3X Bull
    and TZA/ 3X Bear.
    You might try what I do with your S&P trade
    When I believe the R2K is going to rally I buy TNA (3X Long) and then I sell short TZA (3X Bear)
    You Can also use a ratio depending on how well the trend is defined: Short 2 shares TZA
    for every share of TNA you buy.
    This strategy works in a rally or selloff,
    you just buy one and short the other.
    It worked very well in the QE2 rally, and just as well in the recent selloff.
    Good luck to all!
    Sep 26, 2011. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 5 Best, Relentless Dividend Growers With Low P/E Ratios [View article]
    Bionic1- RDS.A has dutch withholding,
    RDS.B does not.
    Here is a link about RDS, which has a list of all countries that do not withhold (due diligence still needed)
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Sep 12, 2011. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Searching For The Perfect Hedge With VXX [View article]
    I think you meant to say VIX is in contango,
    not any more.www.barchart.com/commo...
    I use TVIX and VXX,
    TVIX was selling for $16-21 for the entire month of July.
    It closed at $67.83 on Friday 9/9
    I have taken my profits on VXX and TVIX,
    then when I feel the time is right I will sell VXX short, which I have done sucessfully 5 times this year.
    The author is right VXX is a good hedge when the downtrend is confirmed.
    During the QE2 rally I bought TNA and sold TZA short, held them for several months.
    Used correctly Leveraged ETFs work well.
    In 2009 I made money 3 times going long TBT, NO WAY would I try that now.
    Sep 10, 2011. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Harm Done by Levered ETFs [View article]
    You do not need to borrow money to short a leveraged ETF or stock. is that a mis-print?
    Last year after the Fed announced QE2, I bought TNA and sold TZA short.
    They are both 3X ETFs
    I bought them around the 1st of October and sold/bought to cover them in January 2011
    Made a ton of money, just as I did in 2009 when I went long/short financials with FAS/FAZ, I held those positions for almost a year.
    If you bet against the trend, as many people did, then they want to blame it on leveraged ETFs.
    No one who has been long AGQ which is a 2X Bull Silver is complaining.
    last summer it traded as low as $55, by october it was at $85, last week $382,
    and you have the nerve to say this should not be held for more than a day?
    May 2, 2011. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Auction Shell Game [View article]
    It is absolutely impossible for a country with a Fiat currency, and the ability to print or electronically create "money" to be forced to default!

    Japan would have defaulted long ago.

    I do not believe there are any "bond vigilantes" or "investors who will demand higher yields".

    Look at my previous post and go to the N.Y. Fed website and look and see for yourself that MOST of the Primary Dealers are European and Japanese banks.
    GS,MS,C and BAC are ALSO Primary Dealers in Japan, the U.K. and Germany.

    What no one talks about is that the Legislatures in all these countries are PARTNERS with the international banking cartel.
    The U.S. Congress repealed Glass/Steagall and deregulated financial markets, etc. bla bla bla
    Don`t blame me, I didn`t vote!
    Do you believe "your vote counts"?
    Then this mess we are in is your fault because YOU are enabling the "elected representatives".
    What if they had an election and no one Voted!?

    The Euro is in trouble because the member states are like the "states" of the United States, they can not print or create Euros.
    They are sort of stranded on a kind of "gold standard",
    except it is the Euro not Gold.

    This is not rocket science, and both the Federal Reserve and the Bank for International Settlements have TONS of information and clues about what QE2 is all about.
    Click on this link, then click on the "prices paid" in the Historical data box.
    The Fed is posting this,see if you can understand what it is telling you. Hint: look for % accepted at highest price 100%!
    www.newyorkfed.org/mar...
    Mar 25, 2011. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Auction Shell Game [View article]
    The majority of the primary dealers are European and Japanese Banks, I wonder why no one talks about this?

    Remember when AIG was bailed out and they repaid $8 billion they owed to Deutsche Bank on a CDS?

    The MSM had the headlines
    "why is taxpayers $ going to FOREIGN banks ?"

    Well.. because DB is a primary dealer to the Fed...duh.
    www.newyorkfed.org/mar...
    The Fed is nothing more than the American Branch of the Bank for International settlements.
    The Bernank and Dudley are on the board of directors.
    www.bis.org/about/boar...
    The Geetner was on the board of the BIS until he was promoted to Treasury, before that he worked for the Council on Foreign Relations.
    The Bernank and Geetner are both on the board of directors of the World Bank and the IMF
    Look it up!
    Mar 24, 2011. 08:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Swan Hedge: VXX and VXZ in These Volatile Markets [View article]
    Lawrence,
    I think my strategy is just common sense, not really a secret.
    I just get so tired of people moaning and complaining about VXX without an understanding of contango.
    It`s not rocket science.
    My portfolio IS my hedge fund.
    Thanks for your many excellent articles!
    Mar 15, 2011. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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