talld's  Instablog

My indicator continues to show a major price drop coming soon, probably Monday or Tuesday.  Some stocks that may fall a lot are listed below.  My indicator has never scored this strong in the last six months (the only period it has been calculated for so far)  and I am wondering if the market may have just shifted.  If not, this could be a 500 point (or more) drop.

KLAC 

My calculations show that the market is poised for a large drop, with the Dow going down three to five hundred points and maybe even more.  According to my home built software, these stocks will fall a lot with the market, essentially leading it down.  It is still possible the pressure will ease up, and it could still be a day or two.  But by Thursday, there will be a large downward movement across the broad markets. 

There is a lot of down pressure right now.  These are the stocks which will be the leaders going down.  I could actually make a better list, but this one should be good enough.

"No position at this time, but I may go short one or more of these fifty stocks."

(Update to this post on December 16 at 8:00pm, the indicator is even stronger now, but some of the tickers have changed, so I have updated the list.  It seems likely the large down point day will be soon. )

The dollar is highly related to gold, oil, emerging markets, real estate, finance, energy, the Euro, ..  you name it, the dollar is probably traveling opposite it.  For a while the dollar appeared to be cut loose from these various influences, but now, the pattern is stronger than ever.

And it is causing problems for our markets, as our markets are not meant to be fluctuating more on the underlying substrates gyrations, than on the stocks management, product, numbers, or analysts ratings.  Who can properly value invest if the market can tank fifty percent in a few months?  Who cares about value investing when the market is gaining the same in a few months?  (I believe that crazily, value investing still is applicable)

I find it ironic that a real estate bubble, (something that was really nothing more than mass escapism) is being repeated with the market as the new "investment."  Last I checked the Price to earnings ratio of the sp500 was over a hundred. 

The problem with virtually everything being at least partially related to the dollar is threefold.  But the first one is so overwhelming that the other two, big deal that they are, do not really matter.  Clearly if  almost everything is at least somewhat related to the dollar this means the market, worldwide, is unstable.

I am currently invested in the market, including the areas mentioned above, and my current strategy is to trade the market on the way down, once it starts going.