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talld's  Instablog

My hobby is the stock market, and for that I have developed a custom software application. It once took over a week to do one days calculations and now I have it down to only 4.5 hours of calculations each day. I managed this improvement through multi-threading and refactoring. I use no other... More
  • Monday or Tuesdays market drop
    My indicator continues to show a major price drop coming soon, probably Monday or Tuesday.  Some stocks that may fall a lot are listed below.  My indicator has never scored this strong in the last six months (the only period it has been calculated for so far)  and I am wondering if the market may have just shifted.  If not, this could be a 500 point (or more) drop.

    NVLS
    TS
    WOR
    SIAL
    R
    ARRS
    DOV
    ALTR
    LRCX
    RDC
    A
    JKHY
    JCG
    PMTC
    JWN
    LFC
    TOT
    CAKE
    YUM
    BRCM
    MWV
    PCX
    BBL
    AKS
    BHP
    MT
    ARO
    URI
    STO
    ACI
    WERN
    LLTC
    QCOM
    STD
    TER
    AMKR
    LOGI
    MEE
    PCAR
    IAG
    VSH
    SGMS
    VAR
    XEC
    FCX
    OMC
    CY
    QSFT
    DB
    KLAC 
    Dec 19 12:17 pm | Link | Comment!
  • The market is poised for a large drop
    My calculations show that the market is poised for a large drop, with the Dow going down three to five hundred points and maybe even more.  According to my home built software, these stocks will fall a lot with the market, essentially leading it down.  It is still possible the pressure will ease up, and it could still be a day or two.  But by Thursday, there will be a large downward movement across the broad markets. 

    There is a lot of down pressure right now.  These are the stocks which will be the leaders going down.  I could actually make a better list, but this one should be good enough.

    "No position at this time, but I may go short one or more of these fifty stocks."

    (Update to this post on December 16 at 8:00pm, the indicator is even stronger now, but some of the tickers have changed, so I have updated the list.  It seems likely the large down point day will be soon. )

    JKHY
    JCG
    WOR
    TOT
    SIAL
    ABB
    MT
    SAP
    BBL
    STD
    ETN
    STM
    PMTC
    STO
    DOV
    R
    TEF
    PCX
    PBR
    DB
    CMC
    PCAR
    JOYG
    SI
    CS
    QCOM
    PLCM
    BHP
    HON
    JNY
    BP
    TS
    WGOV
    APD
    ATPG
    TKLC
    RDC
    CAT
    ACI
    AVY
    DT
    UN
    OXY
    CTXS
    BCS
    BBBY
    DAI
    URI
    LRCX
    ALB
    TXN
    Tags: SPY
    Dec 15 11:39 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Portfolio theory cannot work if everything is related
    The dollar is highly related to gold, oil, emerging markets, real estate, finance, energy, the Euro, ..  you name it, the dollar is probably traveling opposite it.  For a while the dollar appeared to be cut loose from these various influences, but now, the pattern is stronger than ever.

    And it is causing problems for our markets, as our markets are not meant to be fluctuating more on the underlying substrates gyrations, than on the stocks management, product, numbers, or analysts ratings.  Who can properly value invest if the market can tank fifty percent in a few months?  Who cares about value investing when the market is gaining the same in a few months?  (I believe that crazily, value investing still is applicable)

    I find it ironic that a real estate bubble, (something that was really nothing more than mass escapism) is being repeated with the market as the new "investment."  Last I checked the Price to earnings ratio of the sp500 was over a hundred. 

    The problem with virtually everything being at least partially related to the dollar is threefold.  But the first one is so overwhelming that the other two, big deal that they are, do not really matter.  Clearly if  almost everything is at least somewhat related to the dollar this means the market, worldwide, is unstable.

    I am currently invested in the market, including the areas mentioned above, and my current strategy is to trade the market on the way down, once it starts going.
    Tags: Dollar
    Nov 18 12:52 am | Link | Comment!
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