talld's  Instablog

Over the holiday weekends I stood in several airport lines where I waited faithfully to show my identification to a person who looked like a bored paranoid.  And I wondered how long it might take me to make a fake ID if I were so inclined.  I could buy a plastic coating machine off the web, HP makes a scanner more than up for the job.  It seems I could make a pretty good ID in probably an hour, once the plastic coating machine arrived at my house.

Now dont get me wrong, I am not planning on making my own ID, even if it would only take an hour, it is just my way of asking, "Why are they wasting everyone's time with stupid stuff than any terrorist could easily get around?  Are they really so stupid as to think that it would be difficult to create a small official looking ID for people who apparently spend months and even years planning their attacks?

This AM I saw a letter to the editor stating that we must all now give up our freedoms in order to travel, that this is the new way of things, and it must be done.  Any snivelers who want their freedoms, must be beaten down until they finally agree that it is in the best interests of everyone to do whatever it takes to stop every terrorist on every plane.

The guy who wrote this no doubt felt fearful for his life, and with some reason, about 3,000 people have been killed by terrorists in the last ten years in the USA.  In that same time, about 400,000 people have been killed in car wrecks.  It really would make more sense to spend some of that money helping to design cars that withstand accidents better.  I am sure the fearful writer has a much better chance of being killed in a travel accident involving a car, than a plane. And why are terrorists confined to planes?  Why not spend some money protecting my favorite highways, biways and cafes?

Just like the writer of the letter to the Editor, the policies of the TSA are getting more and more crazy, forcing most of us to drive rather than fly any trip under a thousand miles, which is then much more dangerous than flying, even if there were no TSA. 

And there is the whole $20 a bag thing too which has apparently caused a run on carry on bags that look only slightly smaller than an electric car.  On my return trip the plane was a few minutes late, and it took at least 45 minutes for everyone to stuff their huge carry-on bags into an overhead bin.  Many of them looked like they weighed in at 40 or even 50 pounds. 

Air travel used to be fun, it was a nice break from the routine.  Between the TSA, the cramped seats, (did I mention the tiny horrible seats) the long lines, the baggage fees, the carry-on horrors and the walking through lines without my shoes, with the threat of a strip search, I really dont think it is fun.  I would rather drive than fly, and I used to love to fly.  

How will the TSA affect the travel industry?  It seems obvious to me.

Disclosure: I have no travel related stocks or positions, long or short.

My indicator continues to show a major price drop coming soon, probably Monday or Tuesday.  Some stocks that may fall a lot are listed below.  My indicator has never scored this strong in the last six months (the only period it has been calculated for so far)  and I am wondering if the market may have just shifted.  If not, this could be a 500 point (or more) drop.

KLAC 

My calculations show that the market is poised for a large drop, with the Dow going down three to five hundred points and maybe even more.  According to my home built software, these stocks will fall a lot with the market, essentially leading it down.  It is still possible the pressure will ease up, and it could still be a day or two.  But by Thursday, there will be a large downward movement across the broad markets. 

There is a lot of down pressure right now.  These are the stocks which will be the leaders going down.  I could actually make a better list, but this one should be good enough.

"No position at this time, but I may go short one or more of these fifty stocks."

(Update to this post on December 16 at 8:00pm, the indicator is even stronger now, but some of the tickers have changed, so I have updated the list.  It seems likely the large down point day will be soon. )