Philip Fisher

Philip Fisher
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  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong?  [View article]
    >>You cannot change the freedom of a country overnight esp. on a poorer country to start from 100% dictatorship to 100% freedom.<<

    I understand that and I am not asking for overnight success, but my question, to you, was to name some significant human rights progress that China has made in the last 30 years? Since you mentioned and I quote, "Compare the human rights of China 30 years ago, it has been doing well by leaps and bounds."

    What are the progresses?
    Sep 14, 2014. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong?  [View article]
    >>China choose group right over individual right.<<

    This basically means that if your daddy is rich or well-connected, you can get away with murder(many tried and some succeeded). If not, you are screwed.

    And who did this "choosing" for China? The people or just a few top communist comrades at the top?

    Let me ask you this question then - Is what's good for the Chinese community party the same as good for China?
    Sep 14, 2014. 08:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong?  [View article]
    >>If it were not the Brits that destroyed China with the other seven nations, China would be stronger to defend itself and the recent history would not be the same.<<

    Don't just blame the Westerners for this. Cixi spent the navy budget to rebuild her beloved summer palace.

    By using your logic, the West taught China a lesson to show the world who was the boss in the region.

    "China taught Vietnam a lesson after the war with a brief war to show Russia who was the boss in the region."
    Sep 14, 2014. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong?  [View article]
    >>Chinese do not have the same human rights than the USA and the West.<<

    Why not? Because they don't deserve human rights like the rest of us. Are you saying that Chinese are inferiors to westerners?

    >>Compare the human rights of China 30 years ago, it has been doing well by leaps and bounds.<<

    In what ways? Freedom of speech? freedom of press? One person, one vote? Right to assemble? Independent judicial system?
    Sep 14, 2014. 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple  [View article]
    >>Philip, you can cherry pick time frames with any stock. Make the same comparison over five years and it will show you that S&P is up almost 100%. Not too shabby. But AAPL is up over 250% in the same time period. Over the last year S&P is up a respectable 20% but AAPL is up over 50%. These time frame arguments are meaningless.<<

    What's wrong with this? I chose this period to illustrate my point that Apple's stock weakness coincides with its declining market shares. What point you are trying to make with your 5-year time frame?

    >>It's frankly stunning what passes for business analysis these days. That anyone could pretend to understand Apple's financial statements and trumpet the downfall of this company is a little embarrassing.<<

    Where did I write that I am forecasting the downfall of Apple? Please don't put words in my mouth that I didn't say. I used actual sales numbers from Apple's 10Q to illustrate my point that historical growth in SE Asia in 2Q 2014 has not been as robust as Nick had painted. Just because I am not as enthusiastic about Apple as Nick and some other posters here, that automatically makes me a doomsday caller of Apple???

    >>They make a huge majority of the profit made on desktops and notebooks as well.<<

    This statement is simply false. I bet you don't even know why.

    >>Apple is poised to dominate their market. They will continue to reap huge profits selling devices that are beloved by hundreds of millions of people.<<

    Apple is a hugely profitable company, and that's why it is the most valuable company in the world. I never said it wasn't. As for dominating their markets, I guess it depends on what your definition of their market is. As for me, Apple IOS has a global smartphone OS market share of about 20%. Respectable, yes, dominating, no. Oh, by the way, have you heard of something called the "networking effect"?

    >>But what does it mean, this notion that Apple is "profitable"? It means they are well positioned against the competition. They can afford to fund R&D (to the tune of billions of dollars each year and growing). They can afford efficiencies of scale. They can afford dividends.<<

    In 2000, there was this wildly profitable technology company that owned 90% of its target market. In fact, it was a certified monopoly that drove many of their competitors out of business. This company threw money at every emerging new market out there, but today it is merely a second tier player in the Internet and smart device markets. Name that company!

    In the tech world, money is a commodity. Innovation is what drives this industry.

    Techenthusiast, I welcome your feedback and criticism of my analysis, but please be more factual based in the future.
    Sep 14, 2014. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple  [View article]
    These are not average numbers. These are actual sales numbers that Apple reported in their latest 10Q. And how am I cheery picking my numbers? I don't get it. I am the only here quoting actual sales numbers in S-E Asia from Apple.

    I am the first one to tell you that I have no ideas what Iphone 6's sales will be. I wrote it myself.

    >>"I am not saying that Apple 6 and 6+ won't be a huge success. Nobody knows for sure, and only time will tell. But if you are basing your Apple investment thesis on this article, you are doing this all wrong."<<

    Perhaps your crystal ball is better than mine and you are better at forecasting than I am. I hope you are right and make a lot of money. All I am trying to point out here is that Nick's analysis is flawed and should not be used to justify your apple investment thesis.

    Two follow-up questions: where did you get this 60% gross profit margins number? In which year and/or quarter did iPhone achieve 60% gross profit margins? Thanks.

    >>"Gross profit margins on the iPhone will again reach 60% because the second edition will be cheaper to produce than the first."<<
    Sep 14, 2014. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple  [View article]
    ptmmac, an honest question, have you read Apple's latest 10Q?

    >>If that is the case then the growth cited could easily be buried under the average of the much larger selling territories like Japan, and China. As an example in India, Apple's growth was over 100% recently because of some sales they were running. Of course, 100% growth of a number near 0 is still only a number that is twice as big.<<

    Please pay attention to how Apple defines its geographical business units. I am quoting the numbers straight from Apple. These are not marketing stats....these are actual sales numbers from Apples. Your above paragraph makes little sense to me. Why are we even talking about India here? Isn't this article by Nick mostly about S-E Asia?
    Sep 14, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple  [View article]
    As I said in my lengthy reply at the bottom, you guys need to take a fundamental investment analysis course before mouthing off your ignorance here.

    Losing market shares and losing money are two different issues. I never implied that Apple was not profitable. Apple reached $100 a share in September 2012, and two years later, It is trading around $101. So basically Apple went nowhere for 2 years while S&P went from 1450 to 1985. Why? Didn't Apple make more money during these two years? Why did the stock go almost nowhere while the market was up 30+%?

    >>A "one product company"! Is there something wrong with your reading skills? I-Phone 6S, Apple Pay, NFC, Home, Health. Please help us to understand your thesis that "Apple is essentially an one-product company!<<

    Can you tell me from Apple's latest 10Q what % of Apple's total revenue come from iphone sales? From ipads? From macs? from ipods? And YOY growth rate for each product group?

    Once you get these numbers, the answer will reveal itself.
    Sep 14, 2014. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong?  [View article]
    All Hong Kong people want is self-governance. This is the very same idea that we Americans(or Canadians, in Cam's case) hold dear to our hearts. More than 100 years after the end of Qing dynasty, ordinary Chinese still can't enjoy the freedom and rights that Dr. San-Yet Sun promised them all these years ago.

    More Chinese may be wealthier today, but are they truly free?

    >>We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.<<

    From the Declaration of Independence.
    Sep 14, 2014. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong?  [View article]
    I am willing to bet a significant sum of money that more Chinese were killed by Chinese or died unnaturally(i.e. starvation) as a result of Chinese government's policy than murdered by all other nations in the world (including Japan, England, the US, etc) over the last 300 years. Any takers?

    "Anybody that start a war is a war criminal. Anyone that kill others are criminals. Anybody that plunder and rape others are criminals."

    By the way, how long did China occupy Vietnam? How about Tibet and XingJian? And how many times did China try to invade Japan?
    Sep 14, 2014. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple  [View article]
    >>According to press reports in Singapore, the period April to June shows that Apple's shipments into Singapore increased from 17% of the total market to 34%, at the same time as that of Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) declined from 55% to 30%.<<

    And I save the "best" for last. The author of this article leads you to believe that Apple's sales in Singapore and surrounding areas had basically doubled in 2Q 2014, based on certain press reports he discovered, and that's bullish for the entire S-E Asia region. Ever heard of something called 10Q, Nick? Try reading it sometimes and you will find a lot of useful information. In the 10Q for period ending June 28, 2014, Apple disclosed on page 27 that total sales in Rest of Asia Pacific (excluding China and Japan) in 2Q 2014 went up a whopping 6% from 2Q 2013. Yes, 6%. Sure this number includes ipads, macs, and ipods sales, but you get my point.
    Sep 14, 2014. 03:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple  [View article]
    >>Hahaha, "over the years", Maybe you didn't hear - there's a new iPhone.<<

    Last time I checked, Apple introduced a new iphone every year since its debut in 2007. Guess what, Apple still lost market shares over the last 3 years.
    Sep 14, 2014. 03:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple  [View article]
    >>Apple is an engineering company, not a phone company.<<

    How doe this even mean? I wrote that Apple is now essentially an one-product company. Apple makes beautiful product, and so do Patek Philippe, Porsche, Ferrari, LV, and many others. Are they all engineering companies too? And are engineering companies worth more than all other types of companies?
    Sep 14, 2014. 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple  [View article]
    I have no position in Apple whatsoever, but some you guys here really need to get a grip on fundamental analysis. Don't confuse a bull market with brains.

    >>Apple is an engineering company, not a phone company.<<

    How doe this even mean? I wrote that Apple is now essentially an one-product company. Apple makes beautiful product, and so do Patek Philippe, Porsche, Ferrari, LV, and many others. Are they all engineering companies too? And are engineering companies worth more than all other types of companies?


    >>I am in Colombia now, similar to China economically<<

    In what ways??? China GDP = $9+ trillion. Columbia GDP = around $400-500 Billion. Similar?


    >>Hahaha, "over the years", Maybe you didn't hear - there's a new iPhone.<<

    Last time I checked, Apple introduced a new iphone every year since its debut in 2007. Guess what, Apple still lost market shares over the last 3 years.


    >>According to press reports in Singapore, the period April to June shows that Apple's shipments into Singapore increased from 17% of the total market to 34%, at the same time as that of Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) declined from 55% to 30%.<<

    And I save the "best" for last. The author of this article leads you to believe that Apple's sales in Singapore and surrounding areas had basically doubled in 2Q 2014, based on certain press reports he discovered, and that's bullish for the entire S-E Asia region. Ever heard of something called 10Q, Nick? Try reading it sometimes and you will find a lot of useful information. In the 10Q for period ending June 28, 2014, Apple disclosed on page 27 that total sales in Rest of Asia Pacific (excluding China and Japan) in 2Q 2014 went up a whopping 6% from 2Q 2013. Yes, 6%. Sure this number includes ipads, macs, and ipods sales, but you get my point.


    >>According to a recent GfK Asia report, first quarter 2014 sales of smartphones in S-E Asia grew 43% for the region as a whole, and a startling 68% for Indonesia to reach 7.3 million units. Vietnam sales grew 57% and Thailand sales grew 45%, in both countries partly as a result of the roll-out of 3G services in 2013.<<

    So if Apple only grew 6% in 2Q 2014 in rest of Asia while the S-E Asian region grew 43% in 1Q, can we infer that Apple actually lost market shares in S-E Asia? And here is the kicker - for 9 months ending 2Q 2014, Apple's revenue in rest of Asia actually declined 8%.


    I am not saying that Apple 6 and 6+ won't be a huge success. Nobody knows for sure, and only time will tell. But if you are basing your Apple investment thesis on this article, you are doing this all wrong.
    Sep 14, 2014. 03:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Pettis On The Risks Of The 'Long Landing' Scenario  [View article]
    "A quarter of Chinese live on less than $ 2 a day. 30 years ago, 90% of Chinese live on less than $ 1 a day."

    And the inflation during this period is???

    Also look at the environment and social cost of this progress....water, air, corruption, food, etc.
    Sep 13, 2014. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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