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Philip Fisher

Philip Fisher
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  • This Is Still Not The Big One [View article]
    Just a quick observation: I am seeing quite a few "skeptics" of the market anticipating a short-term bounce....interesting.
    Mar 27 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Is This Time Different? [View article]
    >>>Whether the stock goes down (or UP) in the long run is really irrelevant, because what matters is TODAY.<<<

    >>>The stock was at $3/shr just about 3 weeks ago.
    Today it is over $11/shr.
    That is 3500% return.<<<

    SMH....something never changes. The madness of crowds.
    Mar 11 11:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New All-Time Highs = Secular Bull Market? [View article]
    >>Here is a difficult question for those in the secular bear camp. Buffett made those comments in 1999. Why has he said nothing since then about corporate margins? His silence on this issue has been deafening.<<

    Buffett may not have spoken on this issue lately, but Klarman certainly has. His latest letter to investors can be readily found online.

    Buffett was asked a while ago which current hedge fund manager he respected. He mentioned only one name - Klarman.

    The market, in general, is wildly overvalued. Can it get even more overvalued? Of course it can. If one is waiting for Buffett to ring the bell at the top to get out, my questions are - when did Buffett become the official top caller? Did he call the top in 2007?

    I buy value, whether it is the secular bull or the cyclical bull market. All I know right now is that I am finding very few things worthy of my capital.
    Mar 10 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    James, you have certainly come a long way from your "all cash" call back in 2012(?). This market has humbled many "smart money" and "retail money" alike.

    Pessimism and liquidity can certainly drive the markets higher, but valuations are important to me too. If social moods is what we must rely on to move this market higher, then this is a game that I am not familiar with.

    Good luck with your new venture.
    Mar 7 05:28 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    One quick observation - I believe that PLUG's earnings call is on the 13th(?) next week. The management should know by now what last quarter's numbers and short-term outlook are . Why do a secondary now, right before the earnings call? Especially right after they just did a secondary earlier this year.

    If the earnings numbers were better than market's expectations, wouldn't it be to the existing shareholders' benefits to wait till after the earnings call to do another secondary?
    Mar 7 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Beijing Blink Yet One More Time? [View article]
    China has been in a mess since the end of Qianlong reign. There were brief periods of stability and prosperity, but nothing enduring. It looks like the current period of calm and progress is no exception.
    Feb 26 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Lending Bubble Could Now Lead To Zero GDP Growth [View article]
    If China were doing so well, then why are all the children of the rich and powerful leaving China in droves?

    China has issues, and being an ostrich is not going to solve any problems.
    Feb 21 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Resilient Is China? [View article]
    >>In China, you start off with complete distrust and then you build trust on top of that. So, the person across the table is thinking the same way. If you offer them a fair deal, they're going to think you're screwing them and that they have to dial back that deal. You don't offer someone a fair deal. You offer them an outrageous deal because then you can dial it back to be a fair deal.<<

    What does this say about the Chinese society in general? Why do you think that almost all the rich and powerful families of China are sending their children abroad?

    Yes, it is the Chinese way of doing business, and to make money in China, you have to play by their rules, whether you like it or not. However, without trust and the rule of law, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for China to make the leap beyond a labor-intensive and manufacturing-based economy.
    Jan 27 09:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Has Bottomed: Multiple Reasons To Run For The Hills [View article]
    Brad, good analysis and thanks for the excellent work. My only question is this: Why do you think that the preferred is a better investment than the common?

    I understand that the preferred gets paid before the common and the preferred's dividends are usually, but not always, cut after the common. The flip side is that the preferred sees much less capital appreciation than the common and the preferred is quite illiquid.

    Full Disclosure: I have a starter long and a short put position in NLY and may add or sell my position at any time.
    Jan 16 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Reasons To Buy Europe [View article]
    Trend is your friend till it isn't.....
    Dec 5 12:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Damage Is Being Done To The US Economy [View article]
    The point is that, being an educated person like you are. you don't have to resort to that type of language to make your points.
    Nov 8 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Damage Is Being Done To The US Economy [View article]
    Not an economist and don't pretend to be one. Just pointing out the obvious here from an average Joe's point of view. If more fiscal stimulus were the cure to all our economic ills, then China will soon be the economic superpower of the world. Let's see how the great China experiment works out.

    Did I mention that their one-party system was great too? The Chinese don't have to deal with a dysfunctional congress. Whenever and whatever the Communist party wants something done, then it is done! Political Utopia!
    Nov 8 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Damage Is Being Done To The US Economy [View article]
    So I guess the Chinese got it all figured out....they sure are smart.

    Keep credit loose and stimulus going and we will have eternal prosperity.
    Nov 7 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Will Money Grow On QEs? [View article]
    >>Remember, even Cisco was $90! $23 today and makes far more money.<<

    Cisco is old tech, like IBM was in 1999. The Cisco's of today are TSLA, NFLX, LNKD, FB, YELP, etc.

    Your investment thesis seems be to largely based on one factor - Fed's QE programs. Back in 2000, it was the Internet, and in 2005-2007, it was housing. Dangerous, no?
    Nov 6 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Loser's Strategy [View article]
    Well written and very introspective. Thank you.

    However, this is an American perspective. If Niederhoffer's grandfather were a Japanese investor in Tokyo in 1989, his strategy would have worked out beautifully.

    Peter Lynch wrote in his book, "One Up on Wall Street", that "...but in 99 cases out of 100, a house will be a money-maker." We all know how that thesis turned out in 2008-2009.

    Shorting America is not easy, but to believe that the last 100 years of American stock market or economy will resemble the one in the next 100 years is a commitment that I am not willing to make at this time.

    One final observation - the S&P500 is now meaningfully higher than the peaks in 2000 and 2007. Are the average American families better off today than they were in 2000 and 2007? Let's not lose sight of what's really important in this country.
    Aug 5 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment