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cpa28761

cpa28761
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  • Headwinds Facing Muni Bonds [View article]
    usr, I would look to see how leveraged your funds are. When short term interest rates increase, that will drive your yields downward. That is a risk I'll bet you bear that is not inherent in individual bonds.

    I would also look to the quality of the underlying portfolio. You may find multiple issues by the same issuer. Therefore, you may have concentrations where, if there is a default, several, rather than one issue, will be in jeopardy.
    Oct 1, 2011. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Stocks Perfect For Retirees- Part 4 [View article]
    >>>My criteria for selling is dividend cut.<<<

    Norman, I don't think we have the luxury of waiting until a dividend is cut. The likelihood of any of us obtaining that information and acting upon it before the market price has dropped is not there. If we wait that long, the yield on the new market value will probably be OK, but I don't think we would enjoy the loss of principal.

    For this reason, I try to evaluate business models as well as historic numbers. I try to judge if a dividend is sustainable.

    For this reason, I rail about PBI. Recently, a SA author recommending the stock, replied that they were OK for two years. That does NOT make it with me.
    Oct 1, 2011. 09:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast Food Companies: McDonald's Vs. Yum Brands? [View article]
    It seems to me that the growth of the Chinese economy is not as great a factor for American restaurant chains as market penetration. The Chinese middle class is as large as the American middle class. I doubt that MCD or YUM have anywhere near as many doors in China as they do in the USA.

    My preference between the two is MCD. There are operational and marketing efficiencies in MCD having one store while YUM has three to operate and to promote.

    Long: MCD
    Sep 30, 2011. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Dividend Strategy That Will Get You 4%, Lower Volatility and More Sleep Part 1 [View article]
    The Verizon workers probably have better coverage at lower cost to them than over 90% of the people who pay phone bills.

    I have a question for you. Should people be paid for the skills and their responsibilities or should they be paid according to the power of their pressure group to disrupt society?
    Sep 29, 2011. 03:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Dividend Super-Stocks With Stellar Payment Histories [View article]
    >>>If I were to guess I would say that PBI should manage to stay the course for another 2 years. <<<

    On that we can agree. However, while I constantly monitor my portfolio, once I see a situation where there is a wall across the road, even if two years away, I would stay off that road.

    Perhaps PBI can get into other communications. However, they would be playing on the home turf of many technology companies. They would bring nothing to that table that, to pick one name, KO would not have.
    Sep 29, 2011. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Dividend Super-Stocks With Stellar Payment Histories [View article]
    Rich, for most of those years, PBI was an aristocrat in the days of typewriters and photocopiers. They paid out all their earnings as dividends, I'll bet. They supported their stock price that way. I don't invest in the past. I invest only in the future. There are so many good companies for the 21st century. PBI is consigned to the 20th.

    Insofar as intangibles are concerned, one day their auditors will tell them to take an asset impairment charge. They are probably tap dancing around the issue as long as PBI can put black ink on their bottom line.
    Sep 29, 2011. 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Dividend Super-Stocks With Stellar Payment Histories [View article]
    >>>PBI generates a boat load of cash<<<

    If you look at their cash flow statement, you'll see that their depreciation is well in excess of (nearly double) their capital expenditures for the past three full years. That is NOT generating cash. That is liquidation. The company and its dividend are not sustainable.
    Sep 28, 2011. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Dividend Super-Stocks With Stellar Payment Histories [View article]
    Of what relevance is book value in an era of investing in intellectual capital?

    Do you really believe that PBI's yield is sustainable in an era of email, electronic data interchange {EDI} and electronic funds transfer? Isn't their high yield forward dividend driven by that the market knows they cannot sustain their dividend as opposed to how profitable they are?
    Sep 27, 2011. 10:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview With Chuck Carnevale: Why Valuation Matters For Buy And Hold Dividend Investors [View article]
    >>> Is there any insight on what an appropriate value for a retiree might be?<<<

    Allow me to answer from the perspective of one who retired fifteen months ago. If an investor cannot fund day-to-day living expenses thru a combination of retirement income (pensions and social security) and investment income, he is doing something wrong. Either he should have kept working to build his investment portfolio and his retirement benefits (assuming that to be an option) or he should retire to a more conservative life style.

    Cash, in a retiree's portfolio may facilitate opportunistic buys. On the other hand, since cash yields nothing, holding it is an expensive proposition. I hold very little it may appear. However, I also hold a short-term bond fund and it seem that every three or four months I have a bond maturing or being called.

    I know I have not answered the question quantitatively, but I don't believe there is a finite answer. Comfort levels play a part as much as numeric guidelines.
    Sep 27, 2011. 02:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview With Chuck Carnevale: Why Valuation Matters For Buy And Hold Dividend Investors [View article]
    >>>Should I look for a church of Growth and Income? <<<

    I think you are in the right place, Rich. My portfolio is similar to yours. You are correct in that growing earnings is the only legitimate and sustainable means of growing dividends. The illegitimate ways are borrowing and creating free cash flow by not replacing depreciating assets. However, if you don't mind my quoting Cramer, there are accidental high yielders. Those are the opportunistic buys for which we try to keep some dry powder to pounce upon them.
    Sep 27, 2011. 09:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview With Chuck Carnevale: Why Valuation Matters For Buy And Hold Dividend Investors [View article]
    >>>3yr total return for agg =24.3% ytd 6.3% someday you folk will be learning about the difference between total return in a diversified portfolio and current yield<<<

    The PAST total return was driven by falling market interest rates creating premium values on existing securities. As those securities approach maturity, those same premiums will evaporate. Therefore, FUTURE total returns will be less than yields. They may approach zero. They may even be negative.
    Sep 26, 2011. 09:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview With Chuck Carnevale: Why Valuation Matters For Buy And Hold Dividend Investors [View article]
    >>>Dividends stocks are more risky than a diversified holding of bonds such as AGG.(hence the need for more monitoring and analysis)
    Folk like Mr. and Mrs Income of the 4% retirement solution would need considerably more time skill and effort to monitor thier stock holdings than indicated in the article <<<

    Given a yield of 2.12% (Fidelity web site) of AGG, Mr. and Mrs. Income will be living off their principal if they concentrate their portfolio in that fund. That's from the first year if they seek 4% in withdrawals. The condition will snow ball on them given the combined effects of inflation and depleted principal.
    Sep 26, 2011. 05:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novartis AG: Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    The author makes one mistake. The 15% Swiss tax withheld is NOT "deducted". It is a dollar-for-dollar CREDIT one one's personal return in the USA as long as the dividend is a taxable event. If the stock is held in a tax advantaged account (IRA, Keough, 401K), the dividend is not a taxable event. Therefore, no benefit can be claimed for taxes withheld.
    Sep 11, 2011. 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novartis AG: Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    >>>Does the Swiss government withhold 15% of the dividend of an ADR (like Novertis)?<<<

    Yes. That's what this thread is all about as well as under what circumstance the withholding can be recovered and under which it can not.
    Sep 9, 2011. 11:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 High-Yield Dividend Stocks To Weather The Storm Plus 4 That Could Power Through It [View article]
    I didn't think it over the top. One cannot discuss investments without the considering the political climate in which business must operate.
    Sep 9, 2011. 07:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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