Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View cpa28761's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • McDonald's: Will This Dividend Champ Continue To Perform Over The Next Decade? [View article]
    >>>I honestly hope to see an opportunity in the next one to two years, ideally at $85 or lower, to initiate a position.<<<

    How many companies are in your current portfolio that you would not like to buy at 15% less than they are trading at today?

    Long: MCD
    Jan 10, 2012. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: A Conservative Dividend Stock For 2012 [View article]

    FWIW, KO has its annual meeting in April and the payment may be made to coincide with that. Personally, the issue of whether a company pays dividends in April or in March, is not worth much thought in considering it as an investment.


    Long: KO & PEP
    Jan 8, 2012. 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Buy And Hold Forever Dividend Stocks [View article]
    And here, Dave, we find common ground. I would not add to my MCD position at this point. I bought it as an income stock, but I have no problem with it having become a growth stock. I will hold it, but, especially since it has become my number 2 holding, I see no compelling need to add to my position.

    I don't use stop loss orders either. If there is a "flash crash" situation triggered by computerized trading, there is no assurance that a stop loss at 90 will not execute at 70.

    I agree too that MCD coffee is very good. I wonder if money could be made by selling the beans in groceries.

    Jan 7, 2012. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Buy And Hold Forever Dividend Stocks [View article]

    I acquired MCD from 8/09 thru 2/11 at prices ranging from 54 to 74. I remember Cramer advising a caller to sell at 80. I held and saw a decline to 72, but I kept faith and held. Now MCD is about 100.

    It is tempting to book a gain. But that would be market timing as I believe that, in the intermediate term, MCD will go to 107-109 and, in the long term, MCD will go considerably higher. I hope I am not emotionally attached. However, when I look at competing investments, I don't see any consumer discretionary in MCD's league. This is notwithstanding that I hold multiple positions in every other market basket in my portfolio.

    Jan 7, 2012. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Buy And Hold Forever Dividend Stocks [View article]
    FWIW, Merrill Lynch and S&P have "Buy" ratings on MCD with target prices of 107 and 109, respectively. While I try to use a market basket approach to structure my portfolio, I can't see anyone (including YUM and DRI) in MCD's league insofar as an efficient business model with positive same store sales driven by multiple factors, including extended hours, new menu items, remodels, and effective marketing.

    Even, in looking at YUM and DRI, each has multiple brands to promote. MCD can concentrate all resources on one brand and across thousands of doors.

    Long: MCD
    Jan 7, 2012. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast Food Titans: Yum Can Beat McDonald's In 2012 [View article]
    If you compare business models, MCD's is far more efficient than YUM's. One brand to promote rather than three. Stores that serve food appropriate to breakfast, lunch, snacks & breaks, and dinner vs. a more limited day. That's why MCD's margins, inventory turnover, return on assets, and sales per employee exceed those of YUM by wide margins.

    Long: MCD
    Jan 7, 2012. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Dividend Stock Rebound Opportunities [View article]
    >>>RRD and DLX pay nice dividends and promise to enter the digital world, but can they? I don't know.<<<

    Allow me to answer the question with a question. Exactly what expertise do those companies have in the digital world that KO does not have?
    Jan 7, 2012. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Dividend Stock Rebound Opportunities [View article]
    FWIW, I worked for a competitor of RRD (privately held by venture capital) and would not put a penny of my money into anything tied to physical images including RRD, DLX, PBI, or EK. It is a dying business.

    I see TOT (as part of my oil market basket) as an income play with some aspects of growth tied to the price of oil. I hold CVX as a growth play with some income. Diversification is the only free lunch.
    Jan 6, 2012. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Technologies: Dividend Growth Analysis [View article]
    >>>I do not own shares because the yield is not compelling for my risk tolerance. I would prefer to own shares in a non diversified blue chip company, such as Coca Cola (KO). Coca Cola sells sugar water around the world. The company operates a defined business model and a 2.70% annual dividend yield.<<<

    I believe both belong in a diversified portfolio. I hold both and I hold HON and PEP. Diversification is one way of managing risk. However, none of these is a true "income" holding. It would take many years for cumulative dividends on these stocks to equal those of a true income holding such as T or an MLP. Nonetheless, from a standpoint of total return, they are the inflation hedges of a portfolio despite modest, but real, income.
    Jan 6, 2012. 08:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds Outperform Equities In 2011 [View article]
    >>>There may need to be a shift in credit risk, maturity, or liquidity, however it is not impossible to obtain a yield equal to the previous bonds yield<<<

    My point is exactly that. Only if an investor is willing to take on greater risks, can he get a greater yield on reinvestment. However, all things being the same, the investor will get an identical yield on his next purchase to the YTM of the one he sold but will lose principal on transaction costs.

    I purchased a Wal Mart bond in 2007 for 99. Its current value is 122. How could I reinvest my gain to get a better yield on a similar credit, with the same coupon and maturity date other than to pay 122 for it? Ergo, my gain of 23 is illusory.

    In 2008, I purchased CVX common stock at 70. It now sells for 110. Maybe it will go up and maybe it will go down. However, there is no legal certainty that it revert to its face or par value.

    Comparing yearly performance of stocks and bonds is comparing cheese and chalk.
    Jan 4, 2012. 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Dividend Stocks For The New Year [View article]
    Think, you MUST use dividends in planning. What else can give you a hedge against inflation?
    Jan 4, 2012. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds Outperform Equities In 2011 [View article]
    >>>> was the bond indices that outperformed the majority of the market<<<<

    Gimme a break. There is NO guaranty that STOCK prices will hold gains. However, BOND prices will deflate as premiums evaporate. That's not an opinion; it's math.

    Look at it another (and perhaps the right) way. As bond prices rise, yields to maturity fall. Bond appreciation is a zero-sum game. If an investor sells appreciated bonds to "realize" his gain, at what rate can he reinvest his money?
    Jan 4, 2012. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Predictions Are Quite Easy For Dividend Investors [View article]

    thsk1221 has proven one thing and one thing only. Given a choice of smart or lucky, lucky wins.

    Jan 4, 2012. 08:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: A Conservative Dividend Stock For 2012 [View article]
    TJ, nothing is forever. I'm not old enough to remember, but I've read that Woolworth and Montgomery Ward were the largest retailers in the USA. Then came Sears. Today, Sears has four problems that won't go away: HD, LOW, WM, and TGT. Give it a year or so and Sears will join Woolworth, Montgomery Ward, and several other venerable names.

    There was no bluer blue chip than EK. Who would have thunk that someone would stick a lens on a computer and obviate film.

    What I like about KO is that they own the franchise and the retailers who carry their products (WM included) are KO franchisees. There are very few companies with that power. The only names that come to mind are PG, JNJ, and HP (in printers).

    Still, the best of them have their missteps. In the 1980's, KO reformulated their product to make it taste like an imitation of PEP's. PG had their Rely tampon. JNJ had their product missteps. HP had their Mark Hurd dalliances followed by Leo Apotheker who didn't understand computer hardware.
    Jan 2, 2012. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: A Conservative Dividend Stock For 2012 [View article]
    TJ, allow me to qualify the point on which we agree. Increasing dividends alone will not compensate for inflation as well as high yielding stocks. It may take between ten and twenty years for cumulative dividends on a DG stock, such as KO, to pay a higher yielding stock such as T. It is only in total return that a DG stock will provide the hedge against inflation. Earnings growth will drive increasing dividends AND an increasing stock price.

    Would I stake my financial future on 100% DG or 100% high yield? No way! That's where you and I agree that a portfolio should include a variety of asset classes.

    Like yourself, I like MLP's and hold three of them. I am not a fan of closed end funds. I've lost money on nearly every one I've owned.
    Jan 2, 2012. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment