Vance Harwood is a private investor and consultant whose interests include macroeconomic forecasting, investor psychology, and volatility as an asset class. His investment activities include trading index ETFs, volatility related ETPs and their associated options. He blogs at sixfigureinvesting.com—mostly about volatility, but occasionally about options strategies, bond funds, and general market topics. He tracks the USA based volatility ETPs and has simulated the performance of most of them back to the initiation of VIX Futures in 2004.
A couple things Vance believes:
The past does not predict the future (see Nassim Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness”). This invalidates much technical analysis–although I think the psychology of stock movements is very important
Past behavior of assets relative to each other (e.g., bonds vs stocks) does not guarantee future behavior
Markets fall a lot faster than they go up, typically at least 2X
“Buy and hold” ensures that you will experience the worst days as well as the best days of the market
Investing in individual stocks carries many more unknowns than aggregates like index ETFs (e.g., earnings surprises, analyst’s ratings)
Peter Way Associates is the only known provider of the price range forecasts of widely-held, actively traded stocks derived from the hedging activities of market-making [MM] firms as they balance big-$-fund sellers and buyers in large block trades. The price ranges offer explicit downside exposure forecasts not commonly found in publicly published investment analyses.
This is all forward-looking data, based on what the MMs will pay for protection against coming unwanted price change while temporarily committed firm capital is exposed to market risks. It is available by modest subscription cost at blockdesk.com.
The behavioral analysis involved has been performed daily since Y2K, now on over 3,000 stocks, ETFs, and market indexes. That has built an actuarial history of how market prices have subsequently behaved following several million price range forecasts, issue by issue.
That data provides a qualitative backdrop to current forecasts in terms of odds of profitable positions, size of prospective gains, credibility of forecasts, and worst-case price drawdown exposure experiences.
Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 40+ years ago.
Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments.
He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest. He has spoken at numerous schools and professional meetings.
Author of Quantitative Investing. Designer of Global Household Index and systemic risk scale MTS10 (click here to learn more). PhD in computer science, Software Engineer, Civil Engineer, 20+ years working in various sectors and countries. Investor focused on low-volatility portfolios, looking for profitable combinations of value and quality factors. Also involved in closed-end funds selection, ETF tactical allocation, short-volatility trading. Model portfolios and trading signals are available on subscription for all these investing styles. I trade some of them for myself. Send me a private message for more information.
Retired (as of June 1, 2016) Physical Chemistry Professor deluded into thinking that a spreadsheet and 24 years worth of historical data are sufficient to devise a winning trading strategy that focuses on volatility ETFs.
My first experience with investing was just prior to the dot com crash. I read up on momentum investing (how do buy) but not when to sell. You can guess how that turned out.
I began developing my current strategies in 2011, based primarily on my own ideas, available data, and self-taught expertise in programming Excel spreadsheets. The strategies have worked well enough for me to retire from my day job eight years ahead of original expectations.
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
Wall Street Breakfast readership of over 900,000 includes many from the investment-banking and fund-management industries.
Sign up here to receive the Wall Street Breakfast in your inbox every business day: http://seekingalpha.com/account/email_preferences
Partner at Logical-Invest.com and private investor for a living. Previously CFO Japan and other assignments in Latam and Europe for chemicals and automotive multinationals.
More and contact here: www.linkedin.com/in/alexanderhorn
Frank Grossmann (founder and partner of logical-invest.com)
I am Swiss and living in Zurich. I studied Microtechnics at the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne and Business Administration at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich. After the studies in 1989 I founded Labocontrol AG. This company was sold to the US company Digital Now Inc. where I continued to work as a chief scientist.
Since 13 years I have my own software company Colour-Science.com which develops algorithms for digital image processing. These algorithms do things like image enhancement, red eye removal or pattern (face) detection. My passion however was always to search for pattern in financial data and then develop and back test rule based investment strategies.
I am currently a retired Aerospace Engineer. I am married with three children and eight grandchildren. I was born in San Francisco, CA in 1949 and moved to Newport News, VA in 1951 where I lived until I went to college. By God's grace, I received a B.S. degree from Virginia Tech (1972), a M.S. degree from Caltech (1973), and a M.A. - Biblical Studies degree from Birmingham Theological Seminary (2013). I worked at Pratt & Whitney (1973-1986) and CFD Research Corporation (1987-2008).
Now in retirement and trying to preserve my life savings, I currently have a strong interest in tactical asset allocation strategies, and have studied them extensively. I have developed a number of tactical strategies involving the periodic trading of ETFs and, more recently, mutual funds. These strategies have been backtested mainly using Portfolio Visualizer and ETFreplay software. The goal is to earn 10-15% annually with no negative years, and to have maximum drawdowns of less than 10%, preferably less than 5%. The strategies include purchasing a limited number of funds with the highest growth and lowest volatility, and minimizing risk using moving average, dual momentum, and risk parity methods. I have developed strategies for equity as well as bond assets.
Eric Parnell, CFA, is the Founder and Director of Gerring Capital Partners. Gerring Capital is a registered investment advisory firm seeking attractive returns opportunities emphasizing value, quality and risk control. Eric also publishes The Universal premium service on Seeking Alpha targeting winning strategies in bear and bull markets across the asset class universe. Gerring Capital implements these strategies for its investors and then Eric discusses them on The Universal. Eric is also a Visiting Instructor at Ursinus College in the Department of Business and Economics. Prior to founding Gerring in 2005, Eric was the Director of Investment Communications at SEI Investments and an Economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Harry Long is the inventor of Hedged Contango Capture and Hedged Convexity Capture and is the Managing Partner of ZOMMA, the world's most innovative strategy index creator.
Mr. Long is a globally recognized expert on the research and development of quantitative investment strategies. The ZOMMA IP portfolio of strategy indices is sought after by asset management firms, investment banks, hedge funds, principal trading organizations, index providers, ETP sponsors, and private equity firms to help them develop and deploy active manager-crushing quantitative investment strategies.
ZOMMA helps investors create long term value by replacing reckless emotional decision making with cutting-edge technology based upon objective evidence.
Mr. Long is a graduate of Rice University with a B.A. in Economics.
Note: Due to the sheer number of requests for bespoke quant strategies, research projects, and quant consulting services, we have instituted the following pricing for the non-exclusive licensing of our algorithms to institutions:
I. Exclusive commercial licenses for unique bespoke algorithms run six figures and up.
II. Non-exclusive AUM licensing fees for our strategy indices run 10 basis points and up for commercial licenses.
Please realize that we often get more than 3,000 e-mails per week. This means that we read everything that comes in, but we cannot respond to any email or message that does not include the sender's full name, phone number, request, and budget. Thank you for your understanding.
This Dubai-like pricing is necessary, because we can't freely give answers to tough problems which we have dedicated massive R&D capital to solving. World-class statistical talent is hugely expensive, valuable, and rare. Our clients recognize that outsourcing quant work to our firm and paying our fees represent a huge cost savings over hiring full time employees, and usually results in a far more profitable, turn-key solution.
You can follow me on Twitter and StockTwits, just search Nathan Buehler.
I have always had a passion for finance and investing. I enjoy and appreciate engaging with like minded individuals that inspire me to think beyond what is generally accepted. My investment experience spans almost ten years. The bulk of my knowledge has come from independent observation, research, patience, and perseverance. Most of my strategy is geared towards long term outlook with focuses on short term events or situations that create attractive opportunities.
I hope the articles presented here help you in your investment decisions. I value our discussions and look forward to professional dialogues. If I can ever help you with anything please contact me. Know you are always going to get a straight answer. If I don't know the answer I will either research it for you or tell you I don't know.
During the school year there may be a delay in my responses. Keep the feedback coming!
Bookmark QTR's new blog, where exclusive (and always FREE) content will be available: http://www.quoththeravenresearch.com
Visit QTR and check out trading ideas, commentary, and me arguing with idiots on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/quoththeravensa
QTR's ARTICLES ARE BOUND BY SA'S CONTRIBUTOR POLICY IN ADDITION TO THIS ENTIRE LENGTHY, YET EXTREMELY PERTINENT ADD ON DISCLOSURE, WHICH SERVES AS BOTH A STANDALONE DISCLOSURE AND AN AMENDMENT TO ANY AND ALL DISCLOSURES ALREADY PRESIDING OVER SEEKING ALPHA:
Quoth the Raven's ("QTR") articles are the sole product of QTR and his personal, individual opinions. These articles are not associated with, in any way, the opinions, strategies, or works of QTR's employer, associates, or entities in any way otherwise related to QTR.
(i.e. This are solely my personal thoughts and opinions)
You agree that by reading Quoth the Raven's articles, you are acting at your OWN RISK. In NO EVENT should QTR be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained in QTR's articles, StockTalks, or other internet-based dissemination methods. Information in QTR's articles are not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. QTR is not suggesting the transacting of any financial instruments and QTR suggests consulting your personal financial adviser with regards to any such transactions.
QTR makes no representations, and specifically disclaims all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained in this site. Again, you should seek the advice of your personal financial adviser or a security professional regarding your stock transactions.
QTR does not, in any way, guarantee that he is providing all of the information that may be available on any topic written. QTR recommends, again, that you do your own due diligence and consult a registered financial adviser before buying or selling any security.
QTR most always holds a position in any of the securities profiled in his pieces and he constructs his SA disclosures in accordance with SA's Contributor Policy, to the best of his knowledge in order to maintain transparency and also to uphold and respect pertinent securities laws. QTR may or may not report when a position is initiated or covered. Each investor must make that decision based on his/her judgment of the market.
I am not a stockbroker or financial adviser. I am a casual investor making casual observations for the purpose of discussion and open communication and analysis of companies and stocks. All articles are my opinion only and are not suggestions to buy or sell any equity, bond, option or other financial instrument. QTR may have long or short positions in any tickers mentioned at any time and reserves the right to open, close, or modify positions at all time without notice. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past. There are tons of unqualified people out there offering up financial advice and its your responsibility to sort through the BS. You don't hit the button to fill my orders and I don't hit yours, so no whining or praising over stocks covered by me.
Follow QTR on Twitter: https://twitter.com/QuoththeRavenSA
View QTR's Stock Picking Performance for every article at TipRanks:
Brad McFadden manages a proprietary global macro fund.
He invests by trading the primary direction of asset classes and also looks for extreme deep value situations, providing "liquidity" to panic buyers and sellers.
He publishes his investing approach through DailyTradingReport.com, along with actionable advice expressed through various portfolios. Each portfolio has its own risk profile and trading theme. Brad publishes his investing results, updated daily, with a complete performance history.
It is this accountability that he credits as being able to attract a loyal following of many thousands of people.
Through DailyTradingReport.com Brad also runs an Investor Mentor program. This provides a mentoring service for those looking to "take the next step" in their investment education.
I was trained in finance, but work in strategy. I invest very infrequently, and balance my portfolio once a year. I buy and hold hold indices and volatility ETFs. I trade a little bit on the side, but that's pure gambling, for fun.
Elliott Orsillo, CFA is a founding member of Season Investments and serves on the investment committee overseeing the management of client assets. He spent nearly ten years as a financial analyst and portfolio manager prior to co-founding Season Investments. Elliott earned a bachelor's degree in Engineering from Oral Roberts University and a Master's of Science from Stanford University with an emphasis in Finance. He also holds the CFA charter. Elliott and his wife Gigi have three children and like to spend their time outdoors enjoying everything the great state of Colorado has to offer.
Hi, I am Ong Kang Wei, a Singaporean investor intrigued by the stock market and anything related to business, finance and economics. I love observing the stock market in my free time, and I especially favor dividend-paying aristocrats offering products/services people need such as P&G, Kinder Morgan, Wal-Mart, among many others. I also love high quality stocks or mispriced stock opportunities that will be able to reward shareholders. Of course, I can only come to such a conclusion through extensive fundamental research and analysis. I am still in the process of learning how to analyse stocks more perfectly, and I must say that I have learnt a lot so far on Seeking Alpha. People whom I admire include Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Charlie Munger, Philip Fisher and Benjamin Graham. I try to learn about these famous people and find out what made them successful. I also regard established people in the financial industry very highly, and always try to learn from them through their writing. This group of people would include Professor Aswath Damodaran, many of the other knowledgeable CFAs and also Seeking Alpha writers. Though I try my best to keep writing on Seeking Alpha, I may stop writing at times due to study obligations.
Here's the link to my latest dividend portfolio update: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2783865-kangs-dividend-compounding-portfolio-2014-review
Connect On Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/ong.kangwei.9
Connect On LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/ong-kang-wei/4a/677/541
Connect On Twitter: https://twitter.com/Okw2101
Follow me and my trades on Twitter @Keddie
Long time private investor of Stocks and Options. I have been trading Stocks for 14 years and Options for 12+ years. I am extremely creative when it comes to my trades and I almost always attempt to keep things leveraged. The one thing I've learned is an investor should always be hedged and never be "Naked" in your trades.
I started trading back in the mid 90's while in junior high school and high school. My focus in college was on investment analysis. I have traded since the mid 90's with quite a few failures until I discovered how option trading could help me. I learned the lessons the hard way about options in the first few years 06-07 (but that only helped to prepare me for the mess of 08-09), and feel confident now how to best trade options, stocks and commodities to reflect my views and help line up probabilities of success in my favor.
On twitter @ WolfOptionTrade
Co-Founder of VolatilityAnalytics.com, a proprietary volatility strategies firm. Using creative historical volatility analysis, we are able to provide actionable strategies for hedging, trading volatility, and finding value in today's turbulent markets.
Our proprietary strategies utilize derivatives based exchange-traded products, VIX related derivatives, and options analysis. We have analytics for both retail and institutional investors.
Follow me on Twitter and Stocktwits @VolatilityWiz and contact me at email@example.com
Writer and investor with an interest in most everything -- stocks, ETFs, commodities, and currencies. My background is in both economics and journalism so I try to present complex ideas clearly and concisely, but with a dash of creativity.
Bill is Chief Investment Officer of Luby Asset Management LLC, an investment management company in Tiburon, California. He also publishes the VIX and More (http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/) blog and an investment newsletter. His research and trading interests focus on volatility, market sentiment, technical analysis, ETPs and options. Bill was previously a business strategy consultant. When not trading or blogging, he can often be found running, hiking, and kayaking in Northern California. Bill has a BA from Stanford University and an MBA from Carnegie-Mellon University. Visit Bill's blog, VIX and More (http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/)
After following the markets for years, I started actively managing my portfolio in 2010. Plenty of misteps and a few victories have brought me to the point of wanting to share my experiences and gather feedback from this community.
I'm still learning the more advanced strategies for options and currently investigating futures trading, I want to bring my perspective to the investing world and hopefully generate some alpha along the way.
I tend to focus on a few names at a time to determine their trading patterns before intitating anything. I've learned that patience is a virtue and to not rush into trades. There are always more opportunities though I still struggle with "the trade that got away" syndrome on my darker days.
I hope anyone reading my articles is able to get some valuable information out my opinions and experience, and maybe a chuckle once in a while.
Matthew Bradbard serves as a Director at RCM Alternatives & Attain Portfolio Advisors. Matthew began his career in the commodities business as an advisor to clients on asset allocation and buy/sell decisions. Matthew has devised, implemented and executed trading strategies for several firms since entering the commodity business in 2001. Matthew has also managed his own global macro CTA that traded numerous futures and options strategies and operated his own Introducing Broker for 5 years. A prolific commentator, Matthew has published subject-specific articles, market commentaries, and Managed Futures educational pieces for the last decade. Matthew is frequently interviewed for his opinion on commodities and current events as they relate to commodities and their role in an investor’s portfolios.
At Investment Underground, our editors are disciplined, independent journalists who dig into technology, commodities, and stock market news to break the stories that matter. Our active approach to journalism spans analysis and interviews with noteworthy leaders to uncover real news that affects business right now.
Most notably, our insights predicted the departure of Avon CEO, Andrea Jung, and Warren Buffett’s purchase of his first technology stock in over forty years at Berkshire Hathaway.
Our work appears in Google News, Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool, Morningstar, Vatalyst, Value Walk, and Guru Focus, among others.
Mark's mutual fund is launching December 15, 2011.
He is a self taught private investor who operates the website Fund My Mutual Fund (http://fundmymutualfund.com); a daily mix of market, economic, and stock specific commentary. Fascinated by the market since an early age, he discovered mutual funds as a teenager in the 80s and moved to equities by the mid 90s. The origin of the website is/was to leverage the power of the internet in developing a transparent track record to attract investors for his potential "long/short" mutual fund.
His equity focus is identifying secular growth trends and the companies most likely to benefit from these macro trends. Stocks are identified through fundamental analysis, although basic technical analysis is used in determining entry and exit points. You can receive Trader Mark's latest posts daily by subscribing free via RSS reader (http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund) or subscribing free via email (http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/emailverifySubmit?feedId=1109639).
With a degree in economics from the University of Michigan, a broader understanding of the economy as a whole, along with interpreting investor psychology, is also a major interest for Mark. To follow on Twitter, username: fundmyfund
Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism (some articles from Pragmatic Capitalism get syndicated on Seeking Alpha so please see the full site if you don't want to miss articles by Mr. Roche).
Orcam Financial Group, LLC (www.orcamgroup.com) is a low fee financial services firm offering asset management, personal advisory, consulting and educational services. Pragmatic Capitalism (http://pragcap.com) was founded by Cullen Roche in the midst of the financial crisis of 2008. Mr. Roche foresaw many of the events that led up to the crisis and felt that the government was slow to react and when it did finally react, responded with the wrong medicine.
Mr. Roche's primary areas of expertise include global macro portfolio construction, quantitative risk management, monetary economics and behavioral finance. Prior to establishing his own business, Mr. Roche worked at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management where he worked on a team overseeing $500MM+ in assets under management. Upon leaving Merrill Lynch, Mr. Roche managed a private investment partnership for 7 years generating substantial positive alpha (high risk adjusted returns) without a single negative year of returns. He has since transitioned back to retail asset management to better serve the much needed low fee retail space with sophisticated but simple asset management and financial planning services.
Mr. Roche is also a prolific writer. In addition to the daily musings on his website, he is the author of the popular book “Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance” as well as “Understanding the Modern Monetary System”, one of the top 10 all-time most downloaded research papers on the SSRN academic research network. He was named one of the “Top Wall Street Economists, Experts and Opinion Leaders” of 2011 by Wall Street Economists and was named one of the “101 Best Finance People” by Business Insider where he was described as “one of the most influential economic thinkers today.” In 2015 Mr. Roche was named one of the “40 Under 40” most influential people in finance by InvestmentNews. He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times.
Mr. Roche is a Georgetown University alumnus, growing up in the DC area and now living in Southern California with his wife Erica, troublesome collie Cal and 4 irritable laying hens. In addition to being a financial dork Cullen is an avid outdoorsman, mediocre gardener, proficient complex carbohydrate consumer (i.e., loves brownies and cake) and finisher of one of the most difficult IRONMAN races at Cabo in 2015.
Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. He was a member of Western's Investment Strategy Committee, was responsible for developing the firm's domestic and international outlook, and provided consultation and advice on investment and asset allocation strategies to CFOs, Treasurers, and pension fund managers. He specialized in analysis of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate forecasting, and spearheaded the firm's research into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors.
Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/)
Mr. Denninger is the former CEO of MCSNet, a regional Chicago area networking and Internet company that operated from 1987 to 1998. MCSNet was proud to offer several "firsts" in the Internet Service space, including integral customer-specified spam filtering for all customers and the first virtual web server available to the general public. Mr. Denninger's other accomplishments include the design and construction of regional and national IP-based networks and development of electronic conferencing software reaching back to the 1980s.
He has been a full-time trader since 1998, author of The Market Ticker (http://market-ticker.org), a daily market commentary, and operator of TickerForum, an online trading community, both since 2007.
Mr. Denninger received the 2008 Reed Irvine Accuracy In Media Award for Grassroots Journalism for his coverage of the 2008 market meltdown.
In 2011 Wiley published his book "Leverage", detailing the causes of the 2008 financial collapse along with analysis and policy prescriptions for the future.
Zacks.com brings the decades of study and stock picking expertise of Zacks Investment Research to individual investors. Now, you don't to be an investment bank or brokerage firm to get the professional power of Zacks' research. It's all available on Zacks.com. Learn more about Zacks' history and company below.