absolute return guy

Outlook for a Merry Christmas Eve

Oh, I forgot a quote to put with Marleys from Phils column that I always keep in mind

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

John Maynard Keynes

Outlook for a Merry Christmas Eve

I will add my Merry Christmas and happy holidays to Phil, all posters above and other contributers to Seeking Alpha and the many who just post comments.

I agree your thoughts (funny too) on health care. I like AMED and HUM and will dig deeper into the ones you mention.

Like you, and be careful because I am usually wrong, I feel like the bulls keep shrugging off shaky data and pushing forward so I stay more long (calls) than short (puts) as it doesn't pay to fight them.

Last weeks (I think it was 12/8) 4 stocks from David Brown are up over 13% in 2 weeks so for anyone not getting a stocking stuffer over there check them out. 4 new stocks for this market each week and with the exception of 1 week (11/16 I think) I have made healthy returns on each little basket of treasures.

NEP was one of the big winners thus far but many other goodies and I hope to add some of Phils health care winners to the recipe.

Happy Holidays to all.........Enjoyed the last 4 months immensely learning from all of you.

30 Stocks Breaking Out

Very good point TM,

My amateur concern is always that I won't know when that big 5% correction is going to hit so I try to keep a little put action going as insurance versus my long positions. I consider it insurance premium that while limiting some gains lets me sleep well at night. But I agree whole heartedly with you. If I had your feel and knowledge of market direction I could probably time that better.

Thanks and happy holidays.

Seeking High-Alpha, Low-Beta Countries (Part II)

Wonderful Articles.....part 1 and 2.....thank you very much.

Bought HGSI on a breakout

Thanks for the note on CORE and thanks for HGSI. I got the Feb calls and it looks to me like it still can go higher. It appears that it broke that long base. I completely understand the market can come along and take stocks like HGSI out with it which is why I keep some hedging in the dogs of the market. I am looking at setting a trailing stop on this. Do you have a % recommended?

Thanks as always.

30 Stocks Breaking Out

In the spirit of Christmas I thought maybe I would post a few of my favorite longs and short going into 2010 and maybe list some of my favorite publishers on Seeking Alpha (although I enjoy them all). No one may care but I have received so much from the site that I thought if I could help someone make a little extra profit from an idea then I would be happy.

Longs (calls)
SYNA
STEC
NEP
NMM
NE
AIRM

Shorts (puts)
PALM
OGXI
PENN
STI
OSTK

Contributers: (I appreciate all)
TraderMark
Phil Davis
David Brown
Michael Johnston
Suna Reyent
Adam Sharp
and Many Many more.

Thanks to all who contribute both as writers and the community who discusses the topics.

Great Site!

30 Stocks Breaking Out

Thanks TraderMark....some good stocks on the list. I wonder if you ever post those breaking out to the downside for hedging. HUM in particular.

I appreciate all you do on Seeking Alpha.

Happy Holidays.

4 Stock Ideas as the Market Is Stuck in the Sand

Nextel,

NIHD has been one I have been considering as well. Do you have a target entry or a particular event you are expecting? Just trying to add to the due diligence I have done on it and every bit helps. I do like it but like you haven't pulled the trigger on it.

Thanks for the help.

Outlook for a Telling Tuesday: Tops Truly Tested

Phil,

I am equally perplexed by the GDP revision and the market reaction. This is why I always stay hedged long and short. Revised GDP of 2.2% after all the banner over the 3.5% figure. All I can figure is they got what they wanted out of an inflated Q3 announcement of 3.5% and now over the holidays can sneak in a measly 2.2% without much notice and move some of Q3 into Q4 to ensure growth.

My new long position today is CORE from David Brown's 4 picks on Seeking Alpha. I continue to like NEP long and short PALM since $15.92. Any thoughts on these by anyone is appreciated.

Happy holidays to Phil and all.

Bought HGSI on a breakout

HGSI does look like a good pick. What do you think about CORE? I picked it up off David Brown's article on Seeking Alpha this morning. Intrinsic value of $122 and strong fundamentals. Seems like it could go a lot higher. Any thoughts?

Do you recommend a buy and hold on HGSI or am I ok picking up 90 day calls?

4 Stock Ideas as the Market Is Stuck in the Sand

Mbkelly,
Good additioins to a good article. Thanks for both of your insights. I added CORE and NIHD near the open and am looking more at JRCC and RGA. Like you, I really like CORE as a good find and could see it going a lot higher.

Happy Holidays to all

Citigroup: Take the Loss, Tim

I have to agree that buying C at this point doesn't make a lot of sense. There are so many stocks out there that can make a better/lower risk return that it doesn't make sense to me to own C. David Brown, on Seeking Alpha, gives 4 stocks to make money in this market each week. While C has been going down we could have made:

11/9 7.52%
11/16 -2.73%
11/23 .48%
12/1 4.88%
12/8 6.34%
last week .11%

I have the results because I have bought them each week. These aren't annualized returns either. That is 20%+ since November.

The sum of all of this is why own C when there are better, less risky stocks to own that can make good returns now.

If C gets their act together, which it doesn't seem like they will.

I always give thanks to all contributors on Seeking Alpha like Adam, Phil Davis and David Brown. I am not sure they get anything out of all of this other than our thanks.

And thanks to all who add comments because it is a great help in keeping focused on the market and educating me.

Happy holidays to all.

Will It Be a Merry Monday?

The health care bill is disturbing. Earmarks everywhere and I do recall President Obama stating that we wouldn't have those under his administration. I guess it makes a good election speach but not good politics.

Small business is the key to this economy and energizing the consumer with job growth. Not 10+% unemployment. My problem is the banks our goverment bailed out are using market money (secondary offerings) to repay so they can pay fat bonuses and as best I can tell aren't making SBA loans. I have many friends looking for SBA and despite the word that BofA is making $20 billion availalbe for SBA......I personally haven't seen it in practice.

If you want to make a dent in unemployment and get small business through the winter insist on a better SBA loan program from these banks we bailed out and hold them to it.

Friday Outlook: Scroogy Swap Prices Darken Christmas

I would add David Brown to the MUST READ list. I have received so many good long ideas that he posts each week. He also gave me the short (puts in my case) on PALM that is doing nicely today, down 15%.

I think the banks took our Christmas rally. When 3 large banks do secondary offerings in the Santa rally to pay back TARP and allow bonuses that removes that many billions from the market it has to have a negative effect. C couldn't even get theirs off without a huge discount to the market so I think we can all thanks Wells Fargo, Citigroup and others who stuffed their pockets with Santa rally for that.

I guess we could throw a second thanks to the 10% unemployment rate for keeping the Santa rally away. Consumer spending, which is much needed for any meaningful recovery, isn't going to be strong with 10%+ not earning a paycheck.

All said, it has been a good year market wise so can't complain and won't.

Thanks to all who contribute and write/read on Seeking Alpha. Phil, you are great. Don't forget to add David Brown to your follow list because his picks are spot on.

Thursday Outlook: It's Going to Be a Tricky Day

I wonder what all of these bank customers who have managed accounts at Wells Fargo, Citi, etc think about them pulling over $20 billion out of the stock market to pay their TARP debts. Secondary offering of this size are not a positive market event as a decent amount of money is pulled out of the market to pay their debts and bonuses. The ripple effect is that the portfolio of stocks they own in Citi, Wells, etc has to take a hit because of less cash in the market. If the amount is big enough it can mean real money.

Just a thought here but it wouldn't make me very happy to have my account at any of these places.