Spring Planting Will Accelerate Next Week [View article]
USA farmers can plant 50% of the total expected corn crop in ONE WEEK. I don't see a 'late corn crop' reducing yield ... and I expect to see 80% or more of the total corn crop planted by the end of May ... will planting 100% done by the first week of June.
The western half of the Midwest corn belt (South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa) is dry ... but Indiana and Illinois are fine. How much rain ( and heat) mother nature delivers in June and July to the Midwest corn belt will determine the total USA yield. http://bit.ly/LkWMz9
Crop Progress: Planting Moving Along Slowly [View article]
There are enough Deere tractors in the USA to plant half the expected corn crop in about 1-2 weeks. http://bit.ly/18sfJfz If all of the expected corn crop is planted by the second week of June ... late planting won't alter yields by much ...
IF THE MIDWEST GETS ENOUGH RAIN DURING THE SUMMER GROWING SEASON.
Wall Street wants 15 billion bushels of corn this year. My expectations aren't as plentiful ... I expect 10-11 billion bushels this year. http://1.usa.gov/18sfWzm
There is no difference between the "Fed" and "Wall Street." That is, Ben Bernanke is nothing but a stooge, who does exactly what Wall Street wants him to do ... and Wally Street wants him to inflate bad debt away.
Don't forget ... the Fed has a balance sheet that currently consists of over $1 trillion of MBS paper THAT CAN'T BE SOLD without inducing a significant dislocation in the economy. Not only that, but to keep this Ponzi game going the Fed is adding to that 'junk balance sheet' ... about $40 billion a month of additional MBS PAPER ... and the reason why the Fed is doing as such is because the end consumer continues to default on mortgage debt.
When this sham ends it ain't gonna be pretty ... and those who currently profit from the Fed's refusal to follow Article 1 Section 7 Clause 1 of the US Constitution are going to regret the choices they made when this game began in 2009 ... because when this game really ends ... they have the MOST TO LOSE.
Undoing Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansions [View article]
There's no way to unwind a central bank balance sheet without producing an economic implosion. Bad debt ... in the USA it's mostly junk MBS paper ... will sit on the central bank's balance sheet FOR YEARS.
The Fed's game plan is to sell back those 'bad mortgage loans' to the likes of GS, MS, JPM, C, BAC, etc. in twenty years ... when inflation has reduced the 'cost of the bad loan' to nothing. Said briefly ... 10 million bad loans at $200,000 a piece adds up to a lot of pain today ... but twenty years from now when a new 2,000 sq. southern California home costs $20,000,000 ... those 2005 bad subprime loans won't costs the banks so much.
That's the Fed game plan ... now is the time to become a banker and get involved in real estate ... as being a pro basketball player or a banker is about the only way to make money, today.
Commodity Weakness Is Likely Localized [View article]
Copper prices are in a serious 'downtrend' ... and are near a critical level of support ... if prices fall through $3/lb ... there's little left in the way of a complete collapse in copper prices. http://bit.ly/zzE6k7
Supply of iron ore/steel has greatly outpaced demand ... which is why CAT's stock is on the decline ...
and the one sector of the S&P 500 which is doing poorly today is XME ... the mining industry is about to go into recession ... just like the housing industry in 2005 ... and tech industry in 2000.
Unintended Consequences Increasing World Demand For Gold [View article]
Here's my take on the Friday-Monday gold selloff ...
A bank somewhere in the globe was 'forced to sell' gold ... and they were forced to do so because they had to buy 'something' that was once priced in dollars or yen or euros ... but now the owner of that 'something' ... is demanding gold.
Japan's BoJ is printing so much Yen that Japan's gov't bonds are EXTEMELY VOLATILE http://on.ft.com/17l5mXs ... as compared to the past five years of Japan gov't bond trading http://on.ft.com/YRN54N ... and can't catch a bid ... which leads to my hunch Japan gov't debt volatility induced a margin call somewhere on Thursday-Friday for a 'major' gold owner.
Everyone knows Italy's banks are a mess ... and recently France's finance minister was exposed to 'hiding money' in Swissland ... http://bit.ly/13r5FmO ... Spain economy's is just as bad as Greece ... and CS (hq in Swissland) is outperforming DB in Germany. Don't forget Germany's debt was just downgraded ...
A bank somewhere in the globe was 'forced to sell' gold ... and they were forced to do so because they had to buy 'something' that was once priced in dollars or yen ... but now the owner of that 'something' ... is demanding gold.
Japan's BoJ is printing so much Yen that Japan's gov't bonds are EXTEMELY VOLATILE http://on.ft.com/17l5mXs ... as compared to the past five years of Japan gov't bond trading http://on.ft.com/YRN54N ... and can't catch a bid ... which leads to my hunch Japan gov't debt volatility induced a margin call somewhere on Thursday-Friday for a 'major' gold owner.
I would. IF all was well in China ,,, copper and iron ore prices would be holding their ground. They are not ... commodities are selling off just like gold. And Friday's gold bust is signaling a bank somewhere in the world has gone bust ... don't know where ... but Japan, China, and Europe's banks have just as many bad loans as the USA.
Possibly due to global warming and a decay in the Atlantic Gulf Stream ... the whales and sharks which trade in London were almost forced to do without a 'warm shower' ... as England was very low on natural gas stockpiles this month... http://ind.pn/ZS0lAU
Japan is still recovering from the nuclear disaster at Fukushima ... and certain political factions in Japan would like to increase liquid natural gas imports and decrease nuclear energy ... hence a need for LNG which puts a strain on global stockpiles of natural gas ... http://reut.rs/17wo6Gk
At the same time natural gas drillers in the USA have been producing 'at cost' or 'even below cost' ... which has led to a decline in drilling for natural gas in the lower 48 ... http://buswk.co/I2UWCk
Hence the price increase in natural gas. What's interesting about this is ... at the same time ... gold, silver, and CRUDE OIL prices are on the decline. Looks like everyone wants to squat in their warm house ... and sell their gold coins to run the air conditioning this summer ... and there's no need to drive anywhere since everyone shops at AMZN which currently trades at a PE mulitple of over 1,000 ... http://read.bi/YxYdU8
What a messed up economy. Blame it on Abenomics and King Obama's printing press.
Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
When a business sells something and 'takes money' in exchange for the product ... that business is RAISING REVENUE. So for example ... if a 'pencil business' sells just one pencil for a $1 billion ... that business has made one hell of sell and made a ton of revenue from the transaction in the process.
A government is no different ... Ben Bernanke is increasing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet by about $80 billion per month. He claims prior Federal Reserve Acts passed by previous Congresses allow him to do as such. But note ... since he is creating money from thin air ... by running a printing press ... the Fed chief is RAISING REVENUE FOR THE FEDERAL GOV'T ... as neither the Federal Reserve Bank nor the US Gov't had this money on hand to purchase US mortgage debt nor US TBill debt from the banks.
What has happened is very clear to anyone who understands money, debt, and interest rates ... as well as politics. Obama supports the banking sector and does not want an economic implosion to occur while he is president. Congress should have voted on the QE implemented by the Fed chief in the Fall of 2012 ... but didn't ... because Obama knew there was no way such a spending bill would pass the lower house controlled by the Republicans.
Article 1 Section 7 Clause1 of the US Constitution gave the ability of the gov't to run a deficit (create money from thin air by running a printing press) ... to create revenue for the gov't ... to CONGRESS. The president has essentially taken over what was once the power of Congress ... namely, Obama is raising $80 billion per month in revenue for the US Federal Gov't ... which is 'given to the Federal Reserve Bank' ... and the Fed uses this 'newly created money from the printing press' ... to purchase about $40 billion per month in MBS paper from the banks and about $40 billion per month in US TBills ... from the banks.
Obama should be impeached for this crime ... and the only reason he hasn't been impeached is because the Republicans don't have the votes ( yet ) to remove Obama from office.
Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
The author of the article wrote, " There was period in time, during the decade of the 1940s, when the Federal Reserve purchased and held all available short-term U.S. Treasuries and virtually all long-term U.S. Treasuries, a much greater percentage of outstanding securities than what the Fed owns today."
My response ... before the Fed existed and before US Treasury bills were exchanged on an 'open market' as an 'asset class' ... if the US gov't ran a deficit it did so by a revenue bill passed by Congress ... and that's why you'll find no similar time in US history as that of today ...
because QE4 is a direct violation of Article 1 Section 7 Clause 1 of the US Constitution.
Gold is signaling that money is about to flow out of stocks ... I don't expect to see a 'major sell off' ... but more of a 'flow downwards' toward SPY 130-140 this summer.
Reasons for such are several: 1. Increased tension in the Middle East in Syria much as the same as Libya in 2011. 2. Continued drought in the Midwest puts pressure on corn prices and ethanol/gasoline prices as a result. 3. North Korea is shaking a fist at South Korea ... which is the result of China's loss of Iranian crude as a result of the US led crude oil embargo. 4. Europe is in serious recession ... and Cyprus is just like Iceland ... the dominoes will eventually fall and take another major 'global' bank with it. Maybe DB or even C. 5. If all was quiet and well in the stock market I wouldn't expect to see CAT and FDX rolling over.
But I don't think the market will 'crack big time' like it did in the Fall of 2008. In order for that to happen diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel stockpiles have to be in 'really bad shape' ... and currently only diesel is on a downtrend.
Of course, I've been expecting to see a 'major sell off' for some time in the market ... and didn't expect QE4ever to be unleashed by the Fed. Make no doubt ... when the market does crack ... you'll know it ... and gold will become very valuable ... very quickly.
Crude Oil Inventories Approach Record Highs [View article]
It's a world market for oil ... as the whole world over is addicted to crude oil ... and stockpiles of oil are low in the UK and Spain ... http://bit.ly/147CAg0
As for oil stockpiles being above average in the USA ... it might not be light sweet crude that's being stockpiled ... it might be heavy Canadian tarsand oil and/or Saudi heavy oil ... that doesn't refine into gasoline cheaply. http://1.usa.gov/XpJQ4K
If you see the 'orange color' over Iowa expanding into Illinois and Indiana over the next three months ... corn production will take a tumble this fall.
Even if 2013 corn crop is equal to 2012's crop ... corn stockpiles are MUCH, MUCH lower as compared to 2008,2009,2010,2011, and 2012 ...
and yet the USA ethanol industry is expected to produce 800 kb/day of corn ethanol ... which wasn't the case back in 2003 ...
about the last time current stockpiles of corn were at this level. http://bit.ly/17de4dd
Which is why diesel is being exported by US refiners to places like Brazil and Mexico ... http://1.usa.gov/XpJRWj
So it looks like Latin American markets and Europe will be hurting for diesel before the USA. But the USA does have a problem with 'crude import qualities' ... http://1.usa.gov/Z8eI4b
The 'good stuff' ... oil with an API between 30-40 ... which easily refines into gasoline ... that stuff is on the decline ... but HEAVY OIL IMPORTS (which refine into diesel more easily (cheaper)than gasoline ARE ON THE RISE ... http://1.usa.gov/XpJQ4K
IF the Middle East doesn't blow up this summer ... I'd pay attention to this drought in the Midwest ... http://bit.ly/LkWMz9 ... and ethanol production ... http://1.usa.gov/XpJRWt
which I see adding to higher gasoline costs this summer ... my guess is WTI will slowly rise even as gasoline demand falls this year ... I expect to see $120 a barrel for WTI at the end of 2013.
Of course ... as the author of the article mentioned ... Iran exports ... http://bit.ly/Z8eIkF
are producing problems for India, China, Korea, and Japan ... which all rely on Iranian oil ... if war breaks out between China-Japan or in the Middle East ... no telling what will happen to crude oil pricing.
Spring Planting Will Accelerate Next Week [View article]
Here's a progress chart:
http://bit.ly/18sfJfz
The western half of the Midwest corn belt (South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa) is dry ... but Indiana and Illinois are fine. How much rain ( and heat) mother nature delivers in June and July to the Midwest corn belt will determine the total USA yield.
http://bit.ly/LkWMz9
Crop Progress: Planting Moving Along Slowly [View article]
http://bit.ly/18sfJfz
If all of the expected corn crop is planted by the second week of June ... late planting won't alter yields by much ...
IF THE MIDWEST GETS ENOUGH RAIN DURING THE SUMMER GROWING SEASON.
Wall Street wants 15 billion bushels of corn this year. My expectations aren't as plentiful ... I expect 10-11 billion bushels this year.
http://1.usa.gov/18sfWzm
Don't Fight The Fed [View article]
Don't forget ... the Fed has a balance sheet that currently consists of over $1 trillion of MBS paper THAT CAN'T BE SOLD without inducing a significant dislocation in the economy. Not only that, but to keep this Ponzi game going the Fed is adding to that 'junk balance sheet' ... about $40 billion a month of additional MBS PAPER ... and the reason why the Fed is doing as such is because the end consumer continues to default on mortgage debt.
When this sham ends it ain't gonna be pretty ... and those who currently profit from the Fed's refusal to follow Article 1 Section 7 Clause 1 of the US Constitution are going to regret the choices they made when this game began in 2009 ... because when this game really ends ... they have the MOST TO LOSE.
Undoing Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansions [View article]
The Fed's game plan is to sell back those 'bad mortgage loans' to the likes of GS, MS, JPM, C, BAC, etc. in twenty years ... when inflation has reduced the 'cost of the bad loan' to nothing. Said briefly ... 10 million bad loans at $200,000 a piece adds up to a lot of pain today ... but twenty years from now when a new 2,000 sq. southern California home costs $20,000,000 ... those 2005 bad subprime loans won't costs the banks so much.
That's the Fed game plan ... now is the time to become a banker and get involved in real estate ... as being a pro basketball player or a banker is about the only way to make money, today.
Commodity Weakness Is Likely Localized [View article]
http://bit.ly/zzE6k7
And it's not just copper ... same goes for steel and iron prices ...
http://bit.ly/11KqyDb
http://on.wsj.com/ZGMwJQ
Supply of iron ore/steel has greatly outpaced demand ... which is why CAT's stock is on the decline ...
and the one sector of the S&P 500 which is doing poorly today is XME ... the mining industry is about to go into recession ... just like the housing industry in 2005 ... and tech industry in 2000.
Unintended Consequences Increasing World Demand For Gold [View article]
A bank somewhere in the globe was 'forced to sell' gold ... and they were forced to do so because they had to buy 'something' that was once priced in dollars or yen or euros ... but now the owner of that 'something' ... is demanding gold.
Here are the clues:
http://bit.ly/YRM1Of
http://bit.ly/17l5kyT
http://bit.ly/YRM1hi
http://nyti.ms/17l5mXn
http://reut.rs/YRM1Or
Japan's BoJ is printing so much Yen that Japan's gov't bonds are EXTEMELY VOLATILE
http://on.ft.com/17l5mXs
... as compared to the past five years of Japan gov't bond trading
http://on.ft.com/YRN54N
... and can't catch a bid ... which leads to my hunch Japan gov't debt volatility induced a margin call somewhere on Thursday-Friday for a 'major' gold owner.
Everyone knows Italy's banks are a mess ... and recently France's finance minister was exposed to 'hiding money' in Swissland ... http://bit.ly/13r5FmO
... Spain economy's is just as bad as Greece ... and CS (hq in Swissland) is outperforming DB in Germany. Don't forget Germany's debt was just downgraded ...
maybe DB is about to take a tumble.
Japan Holds The Key To Gold Prices [View article]
A bank somewhere in the globe was 'forced to sell' gold ... and they were forced to do so because they had to buy 'something' that was once priced in dollars or yen ... but now the owner of that 'something' ... is demanding gold.
Here are the clues:
http://bit.ly/YRM1Of
http://bit.ly/17l5kyT
http://bit.ly/YRM1hi
http://nyti.ms/17l5mXn
http://reut.rs/YRM1Or
Japan's BoJ is printing so much Yen that Japan's gov't bonds are EXTEMELY VOLATILE
http://on.ft.com/17l5mXs
... as compared to the past five years of Japan gov't bond trading
http://on.ft.com/YRN54N
... and can't catch a bid ... which leads to my hunch Japan gov't debt volatility induced a margin call somewhere on Thursday-Friday for a 'major' gold owner.
China's 15 Minutes Of Fame Are Up [View article]
Natural Gas Update: A Gain of 89% [View article]
Possibly due to global warming and a decay in the Atlantic Gulf Stream ... the whales and sharks which trade in London were almost forced to do without a 'warm shower' ... as England was very low on natural gas stockpiles this month...
http://ind.pn/ZS0lAU
Japan is still recovering from the nuclear disaster at Fukushima ... and certain political factions in Japan would like to increase liquid natural gas imports and decrease nuclear energy ... hence a need for LNG which puts a strain on global stockpiles of natural gas ...
http://reut.rs/17wo6Gk
At the same time natural gas drillers in the USA have been producing 'at cost' or 'even below cost' ... which has led to a decline in drilling for natural gas in the lower 48 ...
http://buswk.co/I2UWCk
Hence the price increase in natural gas. What's interesting about this is ... at the same time ... gold, silver, and CRUDE OIL prices are on the decline. Looks like everyone wants to squat in their warm house ... and sell their gold coins to run the air conditioning this summer ... and there's no need to drive anywhere since everyone shops at AMZN which currently trades at a PE mulitple of over 1,000 ...
http://read.bi/YxYdU8
What a messed up economy. Blame it on Abenomics and King Obama's printing press.
Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
A government is no different ... Ben Bernanke is increasing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet by about $80 billion per month. He claims prior Federal Reserve Acts passed by previous Congresses allow him to do as such. But note ... since he is creating money from thin air ... by running a printing press ... the Fed chief is RAISING REVENUE FOR THE FEDERAL GOV'T ... as neither the Federal Reserve Bank nor the US Gov't had this money on hand to purchase US mortgage debt nor US TBill debt from the banks.
What has happened is very clear to anyone who understands money, debt, and interest rates ... as well as politics. Obama supports the banking sector and does not want an economic implosion to occur while he is president. Congress should have voted on the QE implemented by the Fed chief in the Fall of 2012 ... but didn't ... because Obama knew there was no way such a spending bill would pass the lower house controlled by the Republicans.
Article 1 Section 7 Clause1 of the US Constitution gave the ability of the gov't to run a deficit (create money from thin air by running a printing press) ... to create revenue for the gov't ... to CONGRESS. The president has essentially taken over what was once the power of Congress ... namely, Obama is raising $80 billion per month in revenue for the US Federal Gov't ... which is 'given to the Federal Reserve Bank' ... and the Fed uses this 'newly created money from the printing press' ... to purchase about $40 billion per month in MBS paper from the banks and about $40 billion per month in US TBills ... from the banks.
Obama should be impeached for this crime ... and the only reason he hasn't been impeached is because the Republicans don't have the votes ( yet ) to remove Obama from office.
Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
My response ... before the Fed existed and before US Treasury bills were exchanged on an 'open market' as an 'asset class' ... if the US gov't ran a deficit it did so by a revenue bill passed by Congress ... and that's why you'll find no similar time in US history as that of today ...
because QE4 is a direct violation of Article 1 Section 7 Clause 1 of the US Constitution.
Sell Your Gold And Silver Now [View article]
Reasons for such are several:
1. Increased tension in the Middle East in Syria much as the same as Libya in 2011.
2. Continued drought in the Midwest puts pressure on corn prices and ethanol/gasoline prices as a result.
3. North Korea is shaking a fist at South Korea ... which is the result of China's loss of Iranian crude as a result of the US led crude oil embargo.
4. Europe is in serious recession ... and Cyprus is just like Iceland ... the dominoes will eventually fall and take another major 'global' bank with it. Maybe DB or even C.
5. If all was quiet and well in the stock market I wouldn't expect to see CAT and FDX rolling over.
But I don't think the market will 'crack big time' like it did in the Fall of 2008. In order for that to happen diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel stockpiles have to be in 'really bad shape' ... and currently only diesel is on a downtrend.
Of course, I've been expecting to see a 'major sell off' for some time in the market ... and didn't expect QE4ever to be unleashed by the Fed. Make no doubt ... when the market does crack ... you'll know it ... and gold will become very valuable ... very quickly.
Crude Oil Inventories Approach Record Highs [View article]
http://bit.ly/147CAg0
As for oil stockpiles being above average in the USA ... it might not be light sweet crude that's being stockpiled ... it might be heavy Canadian tarsand oil and/or Saudi heavy oil ... that doesn't refine into gasoline cheaply.
http://1.usa.gov/XpJQ4K
Market Analysis: Grains [View article]
Even if 2013 corn crop is equal to 2012's crop ... corn stockpiles are MUCH, MUCH lower as compared to 2008,2009,2010,2011, and 2012 ...
and yet the USA ethanol industry is expected to produce 800 kb/day of corn ethanol ... which wasn't the case back in 2003 ...
about the last time current stockpiles of corn were at this level.
http://bit.ly/17de4dd
Bullish On Oil Prices? 2 Reasons You Might Change Your Mind [View article]
Stockpiles of crude oil and products are low in Spain and the UK as described by the IEA:
http://bit.ly/12hXqUo
http://bit.ly/147CAg0
As for the USA ... stockpiles of gasoline are ok for this time of year ... but diesel stockpiles are sinking too fast ...
http://1.usa.gov/SvOrxF
But demand for diesel in the USA has been lackluster:
http://1.usa.gov/XpJRWh
Even though USA refiners are making 'too much' diesel:
http://1.usa.gov/Z8eI47
Which is why diesel is being exported by US refiners to places like Brazil and Mexico ...
http://1.usa.gov/XpJRWj
So it looks like Latin American markets and Europe will be hurting for diesel before the USA. But the USA does have a problem with 'crude import qualities' ...
http://1.usa.gov/Z8eI4b
The 'good stuff' ... oil with an API between 30-40 ... which easily refines into gasoline ... that stuff is on the decline ... but HEAVY OIL IMPORTS (which refine into diesel more easily (cheaper)than gasoline ARE ON THE RISE ...
http://1.usa.gov/XpJQ4K
IF the Middle East doesn't blow up this summer ... I'd pay attention to this drought in the Midwest ...
http://bit.ly/LkWMz9
... and ethanol production ...
http://1.usa.gov/XpJRWt
which I see adding to higher gasoline costs this summer ... my guess is WTI will slowly rise even as gasoline demand falls this year ... I expect to see $120 a barrel for WTI at the end of 2013.
Of course ... as the author of the article mentioned ...
Iran exports ...
http://bit.ly/Z8eIkF
are producing problems for India, China, Korea, and Japan ... which all rely on Iranian oil ... if war breaks out between China-Japan or in the Middle East ... no telling what will happen to crude oil pricing.