ryanclarke

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims: Why You Can't Trust Them

What's really scary to me is how the U.S. gov't would put someone in charge of the Fed ... who was a protege of someone who was born in Russia and was, in my opinion, a nut case.


On Nov 25 01:30 PM michael rothschild wrote:

> go to your local library and look up some of the old books about
> how alan greenspan did his famous "hamburger for steak" revision
> of CPI.
> or how robert rausch in the clinton administration reworked unemployment
> numbers.
> the list goes on and on.
> our government has a long history of cooking the books to influence
> the mindless masses.
> but you have to remember that markets move based on this nonsense,so
> what are you going to do ?
> be mad because the info is intentionally misleading,or take advantage
> of the market movement?
> p.s. if you go to the library look up some of the old nonfiction
> books by Ayn Rand-there is a foreward on economics written by her
> protege....Alan Greenspan!

Jobless Claims Drop for 12th Week, Falling Below 500,000

Is there a reason why I should file a first time unemployment claim the week of Thanksgiving .. when I'm too busy trying to travel to Grandma's house to do as such?

Why not do it next week? Or even better ... wait until next year?

Lots of holiday shopping to do as well as some time to catch up on some sleep, ya know.

Red Flag: Oil's Faltering

Forget the flag formation. If the corn crop due to the late harvest is below par because of the rain in the midwest ... gasoline prices will go up ...even if gasoline stockpiles are ample for this time of year.

Why?

The weak dollar just broke below 75 (us@dx at cnbc.com) today. EIA data shows the U.S. is increasingly becoming an exporter of refined diesel products, while at the same time, having to pay more for imported gasoline products ... which over the past two years have tumbled along with the dollar.

I wouldn't be surprised to see December and January drawdowns in gasoline stockpiles that resembed in every way what occured in the Dec 07 - Jan 08 time period.

Commodities' Multi-Week Highs: If This Isn't Inflationary, We're Missing Something

The ultimate price of years of excess is about to be paid - inflation.

Only if such inflation can be passed along to the consumer ... but wages for the masses are "stable" or declining.

This is not the inflationary recessions of the 70s. Consumer debt levels are too great ... and the banks are making it worse by cutting credit to their "worst customers" which had until recently been their "best customers."

The U.S. is about to experience something which has never occurred in this "land of plenty." Rising prices for basic commodities coupled with falling company profits ... because the end consumer no longer has the income as well as having too much debt ... to buy the goods with which companies will be forced to increase the prices ... because of the inflation you just mentioned.

History calls it an called an "inflationary depression."

Weekly Unemployment Claims Showing Turnaround Potential

Don't look at this week's new unemployment numbers ... people never file around holidays ... partly because they never get layed off before the holidays ... and those that do will file their first claim after the holiday.

Look for first time unemployment claims to start an uptrend at the beginning of 2010 ... that's when most people get layed off.

Of Creditor Haircuts, Precedent and Sheila Bair

One dollar of capital for each dollar of lending?

I'm all for it ... but I'm not a banker. As you know, bankers can't make enough money without leverage ...

which is why I'd be happy with a system of ten dollars of lending for each dollar of capital ... which all the regulators ignored starting with Greenspan in 1987 ...

you see, without a boom bust cycle the bankers really can't make up for the losses they've incurred over the years by not lending one dollar backed by one dollar of capital.

Nikkei Nosedive: Signals from a Weak Japan

Recall that the former finance minister of Japan was recently found to have committed SUICIDE ! Read here www.huffingtonpost.com... This info coupled with this piece here www.timesonline.co.uk/... about Japanese smuggling U.S. treasury bonds into Switzerland ... leads me to speculate the Japs tried to get out of Dodge City before the bullets begin to fly.

Inflation or Deflation: What 'Quantity Theory of Money' Can Tell Us

Ms. Weerts analysis is incorrect for one very simple reason : Unlike the 1930s or even 1970s most of the United States "inflationary pressures" stem from a lack of U.S. domestic refinery capacity ... namely transforming oil into gasoline ... this is the reason the U.S. faced gasoline shortages in the Fall of 2007. Monetary policy reflected in your econ 102 analysis fails to understand supply imbalances and disruptions of an economy completely dependent on "foreign made" energy.

Dell's Lack of Innovation Disappoints

Dell is only a few steps behind Gateway ... to the grave. I go as far to say this, and to save the reader twenty pages of analysis, for a very simple reason.

Dell, just like Gateway, just like Compaq, just like all the other "computer" companies ... relied on other manufacturers to actually do the "hard work" ... such as Intel, Microsoft, and Seagate .. and actually build the factories that make the components of a Dell box.

Assembly work isn't very profitable ... just ask the "mom and pop" computer stores that boomed in the earlier 90's which called it quits with the tech bust in 2000.

I mentioned Seagate in my list ... because it bought Maxtor, another hard drive maker ... a few years back. Seagate is simply a mess. Soon only Western Digital will be around ... and I don't see them surviving the move to "flash hard drives" which is where the Koreans are going to make all their money.


On Nov 23 12:17 PM SiliconValleyJoe wrote:

> There are no surprises here. Dell is specifically a hardware manufacturer.
> It is narrower than H-P, IBM and Sony and Hitachi. H-P and IBM have
> software expertise and knows to build its own OS and software application
> suites for business use. Sony makes consumer electronics and owns
> entertainment media. Hitachi makes consumer electronics and appliances.
>
>
> Dell has tightly focused itself on making PC before branching out
> into services but purchasing other firms. Until it can develop software
> prowess to add value to its hardware, it must rely heavily on others
> for software and it can only compete on price. We all know how PC
> builders compete on price, it is a maddening race to being near-free.
>
>
> Dell was never a technology innovator. Dell was just a PC maker that
> hit on a business model that worked for a time. It never adapted,
> never looked forward and became complacent. It is paying the price
> now.

The Fed Backed Itself into a Corner

Nick36 wrote the U.S. has too much debt ... which can't be written off until the Fed loses control. THATS THE PROBLEM ... the Fed has no control ... as the Fed is run by the banks of this country ... not the other way around.

The only saving grace of the U.S. government is in the constitution. Ultimately, only Congress has power to "coin money" ... as well as to borrow via U.S. issued Treasury bills. Yes, the Fed has "bought" a massive amount, about a trillion dollars worth, of junk mortgage paper from the banks. But someday, the banks have to "buy" back the junk mortgage paper as the Fed cannot "create money" ... they can only make loans backed by "objects of value" unless Congress chooses to alter the current structure of the Fed.


On Nov 22 08:26 AM Nick36 wrote:

> The problem is that the Fed can't help the Main Street directly.
> The Fed can only bail out the big banks and give them lots of money
> on very favorable terms.
>
> But it's up to the banks to decide what to do with the money. And
> if they want to gamble in financial markets instead of helping the
> Main Street. Then there is nothing the Fed can do about it.
>
> Another problem with the Fed preventing the economy from getting
> much worse with easy money policy and ever bigger accumulation of
> consumer and government debts is that the Fed is also preventing
> the economy from getting much better. Because the debts are a burden
> on the economy. And big debts limit the prospects of further economic
> growth.
>
> The policies of the Fed attempting to produce never-ending economic
> growth have led to never-ending accumulation of debts. And now the
> debts are so big that they impede further economic growth.
>
> The Fed is at the end of its rope. There isn't much more the Fed
> can do. And if the Fed looses it's independence. Then in the end
> that might be the way out of the current predicament of too much
> debt. The country needs to get rid of its debts one way or another
> in order to go forward. And there is no way to do it as long as the
> Fed is in control.

Dell CEO Stands by Windows 7 Big Bang Theory

Mr. Dell just popped roughly half his wad on Mr. Perot's computer networks that operate in Texas hospitals, that is, Dell spent tooooooooooo much on Perot, almost $4 billion, on a company which is going after the same gov't business as GE .... which is bad news because Dell's cash stash just took a big hit.


Also, don't forget this, www.dell.com/content/t... ... even though Dell's "bored" admitted the books were cooked a wee bit a few years ago ... which is why Rollins left and Dell came back ... I suspect the reason Dell was able to "wipe out" the mom and pop computer stores that used to sell their own "home made" assembled computers ... was because Mr. Dell hired some Enron accountants who used imaginary numbers to buy motherboards, video cards for FREE from the same Taiwan manufacturing companies the mom and pop computer stores used to purchase from as well.

But the final straw that will break Dell's stock is ... DELL DOES NOT INNOVATE. Dell is nothing more than the "front running" marketing company for Intel and Microsoft. In my opinion, there is little reason to buy a Dell box ... which has the same main board as HP which came from the same factory in Taiwan ... preloaded with Windows 7 when you could have bought a Dell Ubuntu OS box this year.

As far as Dell phones go ... they are way behind the curve ... which is why they were introduced in China and Brazil, first ... as these countries have "slower" cell phone networks.


Acer ... a Chineese .... ooooops I mean Taiwanese company ... will replace Dell as the "cheapo" way for the non computer geek to get the latest and greatest PC computer built around the latest and greatest Intel chip ... by no later than next year.

Dell Investors Need More Patience

The author of the article wrote, "Since Dell does not pay a dividend, value will likely be returned to shareholders via share buybacks or earnings growth at over the anticipated 7% annualized rate."

Don't forget Mr. Dell just popped roughly half his wad on Mr. Perot's computer networks that operate in Texas hospitals, that is, Dell spent tooooooooooo much on Perot, almost $4 billion, on a company which is going after the same gov't business as GE .... so much for stock buy backs.

Also, don't forget this, www.dell.com/content/t... ... even though Dell's "bored" admitted the books were cooked a wee bit a few years ago ... which is why Rollins left and Dell came back ... I suspect the reason Dell was able to "wipe out" the mom and pop computer stores that used to sell their own "home made" assembled computers ... was because Mr. Dell hired some Enron accountants who used imaginary numbers to buy motherboards, video cards for FREE from the same Taiwan manufacturing companies the mom and pop computer stores used to purchase from as well.

But the final straw that will break Dell's stock is ... DELL DOES NOT INNOVATE. Dell is nothing more than the "front running" marketing company for Intel and Microsoft. In my opinion, there is little reason to buy a Dell box ... which has the same main board as HP which came from the same factory in Taiwan ... preloaded with Windows 7 when you could have bought a Dell Ubuntu OS box this year.

Acer ... a Chineese .... ooooops I mean Taiwanese company ... will replace Dell as the "cheapo" way for the non computer geek to get the latest and greatest PC computer built around the latest and greatest Intel chip ... by no later than next year.

Going Delinquent

My guess is Uncle Sam is trying to pull off a "hybrid" of both ... that is, a "light" depression coupled with a "heavy" dose of inflation ... but not hyperinflation. In my humble opinion, Bernake is trying to pull a camel through the eye of a needle while he is standing on one leg with nothing more than two hands and a seventy year old hammer to do the job.

That the housing market is "unaffordable" ... everyone knows it ... and what dummy would buy a house right now at the "realtor" price is beyond me ... unless they are a school teacher or government worker ... those jobs are "secure."


On Nov 21 11:45 AM Griz wrote:

> Why, why, why, why, why?
>
> Why do we continue to harbor such misguided Keynesian economic thinking.
> Why is artificially supporting a "chosen" asset class better than
> letting it fall to reach its natural equilibrium point. How do we
> know that the "pretend & extend" policy will work?
>
> I think the appropriate question is: Which is worse: a depression
> or hyperinflation? I think the US in the 30's fared a lot better
> than the Weimar or Zimbabwe could have ever hoped for.

More Good News for U.S. Exports

Let's see if the consumer shops until he drops this Holiday season. China is counting on it ... as is Larry Summers and the PPT. The only reason CIT didn't fold in the summer ... and finally did go "belly up" a few weeks ago ... is because the store shelves needed to be filled with all the stuff China assembles and stuffs in the container boxes you just mentioned.

The Jobless Rate-Interest Rate Conundrum

"and don't be surprised if the Mexican peso looks pretty good relative to the U.S. dollar at that time."

Mr. Iacona, I couldn't agree with you more. Let me add one more point to your historical background of Fed policy. The Fed has been trying for nearly ten years to inflate the tech bubble away ... energy and commodity pricing pressures are far more maliginant than the Fed will admit ... but the debt levels ... business, consumer, and government debt ... are so bloated ... that a Volcker style interest rate hike will induce a default ... which is why the Fed is trapped.