The Dark Clouds Looming Over Alcoa And Aluminum [View article]
Rule number one to investing ... follow the trend ... as it's your friend. Buying a stock at $10 ... and then following it down to buy more at $5 four months later is a VERY BAD INVESTMENT DECISION. Trust me ... I learned this the hard way.
Purchase some stock at $10 ... if the price goes to $12 buy some more of the stock. If it hits $15 a share ... sell the ranch ... and triple down on your investment. That's the proper way to follow the trend.
On the other hand ... if you buy at $8.63 and four months later the stock is at $5 ... don't buy anymore ... sell at a loss ... and find something else to invest in.
AA is loaded to the neck in debt ... I've been short for some time. BBY, F, SHLD, GM, GNW, LNC, MS, CRM ... and half of the other S&P 500 ... will be out of business within five years.
Alcoa failed to produce a profit in the 2009 earning's period. Alcoa also failed to produce a profit in the 2008 earning's period.
In order to make a $1/share in 2011 ... Alcoa must no longer have any writedowns ... and the debt Alcoa has to rollover must be done with ease ... and the price of aluminum has to return to 2007 levels.
Alcoa will be lucky if AA makes 40 cents in earnings in 2010. In order to make over a dollar in earnings in 2011 ... the price of aluminum has to double in 2011 as well.
In the beginning of Q1 2011 ... Wall Street is going to wake up to the fact that TTM P/E ratio of AA is nearly 30 ($12 stock price / 40 cent earnings). And that's when AA becomes a $4 stock ... which is what it should have been in 2010 all along.
I believe sooner or later AA will go the way of GM and file for bankruptcy. The debt levels AA is dealing with ... at the same time revenue is on par with the 2002-2003 time period ... should give AA some serious headaches when it comes time to roll over debt.
Which is precisely the same situation GM got stuck in.
For more about AA earnings and debt levels visit ..
Once the 'inflation' gets going in this game ... market players are going to have to take that ADD drug ... Ridelin ?? ... they shove down kids throats at school.
That is ... the INFLATION WILL BE HYPER before Ben can say 'raise the rates.'
AA is loaded with debt ... revenue is back to 2002 levels ... and if aluminum prices don't get back to March-April 2010 highs SOON ... AA has got to run to the banksters for more money ... but at 0% maybe AA will get another loan to take care of their debt.
The problem with this brand of 'socialim' ...namely the corporate kind ... is while balance sheet problems of the S&P 500 corps are being 'hidden' .... consumer balance sheets are being thrown in the trash.
At Alcoa, It's All About Pensions and Cash Flow [View article]
Alcoa has a debt problem ... and it's not just a long term debt problem. I believe a ballpark $600 million debt payment is due in August ... whether or not AA can make the payment has yet to be seen.
What I do know is AA revenue is back to 2002 levels (ballpark $20 billion per year ) ... and yet AA debt levels are near an all time high (ballpark $9 billion) .
I believe, but do not know, that AA's future is dim given the amount of debt on the books ... AA's inability to earn a profit as revenue decreased in the 2008-2009 time period ... has led to a CASH FLOW PROBLEM ...
that is, AA has no way to make the required August debt payments as the company should ... and will need a bailout very soon.
AA is loaded to the waist in debt. Take a look at the 10-Q filing at secfilings.com .... which is why the stock is not performing like the rest of the market.
The author wrote, " For 2010, Alcoa is expected to record net earnings of 82 cents in contrast to a net loss of $1.23 per share reported in 2009."
I'd be shocked if the company can even pull off 40 cents per share in 2010. Yes, head count has been reduced ... but energy costs are way up ... and it takes tons of energy to smelt aluminum. The company is also sitting on a ton of debt ... much of which eats into Alcoa's profits.
For more see the 10-Q and 10-K AA filings at secfilings.com
Alcoa Kicking Off Earnings Season - Another Tough Quarter Predicted [View article]
Alcoa is a 'dead company walking.' Take a look at the most recent 10K at this site .... secfilings.com . Any money AA makes (30-50% depending on interest rates ) is spent on servicing the debt it has taken on its books over the years.
Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings: Some Numbers That Don't Add Up [View article]
All the boobleheads in the news are going to be wondering why AA posts improving positive earnings quarter over quarter for the next two quarters but the stock price doesn't move back to $40 ... ... because everyone who looks at the AA's 10-Q knows the long term viability of a company waist deep in debt ... is unlikely ... unless AA can get revenue, THE TOP LINE to above $30 Billion a year ... and do it next year ... no matter what.
Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings: Some Numbers That Don't Add Up [View article]
Good and careful scrutiny of the numbers. With revenue up about 9% from last quarter and aluminum prices up 18% from last quarter .... shipments should be about the same ... which they were ... not alot difference of shipments of ... 1,230,000 metric tons shipped this quarter, 1,288,000 last quarter. What's of greater concern to me is following AA debt levels and the ability to service that debt level long term. Also, in order to beat the street AA cut to the bone ... about a 25% reduction in head count is what I read in the news. Much of what AA earns on the top line in the next few quarters will get eaten away by AA's debt problem. By this time next year AA's is probably cut to junk ... just like GM ... along with another industry taken over by the secured bondholders and Uncle Sam ... which makes complete sense because AA was a monopoly just like Boring is just like Microsofty is just like Exxon is .. etc.
The Dark Clouds Looming Over Alcoa And Aluminum [View article]
Purchase some stock at $10 ... if the price goes to $12 buy some more of the stock. If it hits $15 a share ... sell the ranch ... and triple down on your investment. That's the proper way to follow the trend.
On the other hand ... if you buy at $8.63 and four months later the stock is at $5 ... don't buy anymore ... sell at a loss ... and find something else to invest in.
AA is loaded to the neck in debt ... I've been short for some time. BBY, F, SHLD, GM, GNW, LNC, MS, CRM ... and half of the other S&P 500 ... will be out of business within five years.
Alcoa Leads Off With a Beat [View article]
Q1: lost twenty cents a share
Q2- made thirteen cents a share
Q3- made six cents a chare
Q4- made twenty three cents a share
souce is here :
ycharts.com/companies/...
Alcoa failed to produce a profit in the 2009 earning's period. Alcoa also failed to produce a profit in the 2008 earning's period.
In order to make a $1/share in 2011 ... Alcoa must no longer have any writedowns ... and the debt Alcoa has to rollover must be done with ease ... and the price of aluminum has to return to 2007 levels.
Aluminum price is here:
www.kitcometals.com/ch...
IF THIS ISN'T ONE OF WALL STREET's BIGGEST CON JOBS ... I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS.
Alcoa Revenues Jump 15% [View article]
In the beginning of Q1 2011 ... Wall Street is going to wake up to the fact that TTM P/E ratio of AA is nearly 30 ($12 stock price / 40 cent earnings). And that's when AA becomes a $4 stock ... which is what it should have been in 2010 all along.
Alcoa's Many Warning Flags [View article]
Which is precisely the same situation GM got stuck in.
For more about AA earnings and debt levels visit ..
ycharts.com/companies/...
On Alcoa's Report and Stagflation [View article]
That is ... the INFLATION WILL BE HYPER before Ben can say 'raise the rates.'
AA is loaded with debt ... revenue is back to 2002 levels ... and if aluminum prices don't get back to March-April 2010 highs SOON ... AA has got to run to the banksters for more money ... but at 0% maybe AA will get another loan to take care of their debt.
The problem with this brand of 'socialim' ...namely the corporate kind ... is while balance sheet problems of the S&P 500 corps are being 'hidden' .... consumer balance sheets are being thrown in the trash.
At Alcoa, It's All About Pensions and Cash Flow [View article]
What I do know is AA revenue is back to 2002 levels (ballpark $20 billion per year ) ... and yet AA debt levels are near an all time high (ballpark $9 billion) .
I believe, but do not know, that AA's future is dim given the amount of debt on the books ... AA's inability to earn a profit as revenue decreased in the 2008-2009 time period ... has led to a CASH FLOW PROBLEM ...
that is, AA has no way to make the required August debt payments as the company should ... and will need a bailout very soon.
for more read
www.bloomberg.com/news...
Alcoa Shows Potential Bearish Pattern [View article]
Alcoa: Earnings Preview [View article]
I'd be shocked if the company can even pull off 40 cents per share in 2010. Yes, head count has been reduced ... but energy costs are way up ... and it takes tons of energy to smelt aluminum. The company is also sitting on a ton of debt ... much of which eats into Alcoa's profits.
For more see the 10-Q and 10-K AA filings at secfilings.com
Alcoa Kicking Off Earnings Season - Another Tough Quarter Predicted [View article]
Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings: Some Numbers That Don't Add Up [View article]
Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings: Some Numbers That Don't Add Up [View article]