Papaswamp

Nov. ISM Manufacturing Index: 53.6 vs. 55 expected and 55.7 in October. Prices index 55 vs. 65 prior. Employment 50.8 vs. 53.1. Inventories 41.3 vs. 46.9. New orders 59.9 vs. 63.3. While below consensus, it marks the fourth straight month of expansion in U.S. manufacturing.

expansion?.... employment, inventories and new orders dropping....but don't worry all is well!!!

Dubai's debt is not guaranteed by the government, the head of its Department of Finance says. "The company received financing based on its project schedule, not a government guarantee. Lenders should bear part of the responsibility." While some lenders may have perceived Dubai World as an extension of the government, Abdulrahman Al Saleh says it's simply not true.

They will wait to come in and pick up the pieces at a cheap price. Sounds like UBS has huge exposure...

Max Keiser: 'World Entering Phase Two of Global Economic Crisis'

Chris,
Keiser says,
-Greek market is getting hammered,
-East Europe is the next shoe to drop.
-UBS has huge exposure to Dubai, thus UK taxpayer.
-Gold purchase by governments (China and Germany, etc.)
-UK and US Govts have and continue to allow banks to screw people.

-->>> basically end of the world type economic predictions.


On Nov 30 08:20 AM chris coonan wrote:

> For those of us who can't see Youtube (people in China), can you
> paraphrase what the interview said? Thanks

Bernstein drops its price target on AIG (AIG) to $12 from $20, saying its research has uncovered significant deficiencies ($11B) in AIG's loss reserves, and that the potential implications of this shortfall are significant. Shareholders and the U.S. government "face considerably more uncertainty than they may have anticipated," firm says. Shares -3.75% premarket to $32.05.

Wonder how many others have a similar situation?

$59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications

Greece and Italy default THEN I'll worry (eastern europe has been degrading for months with little impact.....so far Dubai hasn't defaulted (yet). Next few weeks may be very interesting.

Signs of Extreme Complacency in the Market

Europe dropped 3% yesterday...that is 'barely changed'?

"LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European shares recorded their biggest one-day drop since April on Thursday, with banks leading a broad tumble for markets amid worries about exposure to Dubai debt."


On Nov 27 05:19 AM Denis Gould wrote:

> It is amazing that European stocks are barely changed on the Dubai
> news. Maybe it does reflect a generalised belief in "the recovery",
> or extreme complacency as you put it.
>
> Accumulating bad news plus complacency is a truly horrifying combination.

Understanding the 'Improvement' in Employment Numbers

NSA numbers have been rising since July. There seems to be a disconnect....

Jobless Claims Drop for 12th Week, Falling Below 500,000

The NSA numbers rose again to +540,000.

"The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent during the week ending Nov. 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,070,712, an increase of 187,642 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.8 percent and the volume was 3,782,040."

Says it all.

Initial Jobless Claims: 505K vs. 506K expected, 505K prior (revised from 502K). Continuing claims -39K to 5,611,000

notice previous weeks was revised up ...again.

Chinese and U.S. regulators are reportedly negotiating an agreement aimed at encouraging Chinese firms to buy into small and medium-sized U.S. banks, something Chinese bankers complain has been difficult for them in the past. The shift highlights how the global financial landscape has been redrawn post crisis, with cash-rich Chinese banks now a force to be reckoned with.

Good gosh can they own any more of US?

Oct. Industrial Production: +0.1% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.6% prior (revised from +0.7%). Capacity utilization +0.2 to 70.7%.

Utilities saved the day to keep the number positive...everything else declined. Oh yea definite recovery.

Recent Economic Data Puts Focus on Viability of Sustainable Recovery

U-6 numbers were disastrous for Oct..

The NSA numbers for unemployment:
10/17/2009 460,430
10/24/2009 494,394
10/31/2009 482,542
11/7/2009 529,446

As reported in another post...
"for the past three months, an average of 196,000 payroll jobs were lost per month, but an average of 401,000 non-payroll jobs were lost per month"
seekingalpha.com/artic...

This is why confidence has stalled. Wall Street has completely decoupled from Main Street. Why Wall Street would discount 2/3rds of the economy (the consumer aka Main Street) is beyond me. And just out Q3 mortgage delinquency rates hit another all time high.
newsroom.transunion.co...

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

ICSC-Goldman down 0.1% second week in a row...stimulus has run out I guess.

Meredith Whitney Hasn't Been This Bearish in a Year

The only reason companies are making a profit is cutting workforce and slashing inventories. How many companies are actually seeing revenue growth due to demand as opposed to due to cutting? Certain companies with substantial overseas markets seem to be the only ones. Domestically we are still down trending.
The market seems completely domestically decoupled from main street.

China says the Fed is endangering global recovery with its insistence on keeping domestic interest rates near zero for the next 12-18 months. China's chief bank regulator rebuked the U.S. for fueling speculative capital flows that may spur asset-price inflation, which he said has already led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation.

Think China will start unloading US debt as a signal it is serious, because I'm sure our illustrious leader will just ignore China's concerns.